Custom Forecast for the 2010 Vans Pier Classic

The guys over at Transworld SURF asked me to put together a forecast for the2010 Vans Pier Classic contest that is going to run at the HB Pier March 24-28. I thought I would share what I put together…hopefully it will help a few of you (and me too) score a few waves this week while the contest is on…keep in mind that this forecast is just for the South Side of the pier…the other spots in the region will be different, but if you check the pier enough, you will already know how these swells will affect the other breaks…



What: The first stop of the ASP World Qualifying Series North America Tour, The Vans Pier Classic. Plus the Ezekiel Pro Junior contest.
When: March 24-28
Where: The southside of Huntington Beach Pier
Watch it live at http://www.vans.com/

Surf Forecast Summary

Looks like a fun run of surf on tap for the Vans Pier Classic. There will be a decent S-SW swell already in the water as the contest kicks off on Wednesday and there will also be enough WNW-NW energy from local windswell, and a medium-period WNW-NW swell, to break up the bigger Southern Hemi sets. Wednesday and Thursday look like the biggest days with some shoulder-head high sets pushing through on the lower tides. The swell mix slowly backs down on Friday but holds onto enough energy to keep the surf rideable/playful over the weekend.

Weatherwise things look ok…there will be a bit of coastal eddy developing on Thursday that will bring in some overcast skies, fog, and light S-SW winds (basically the standard HB eddy crumble that plagues the region during Spring). Thursday’s wind looks like the funkiest day…by Friday, and on into the weekend, we should see the cleaner morning conditions return.

Keep in mind the tide-swings during the contest…the sandbars around the pier, (well really throughout a lot of Southern California), got chewed up by all the big winter swells and even a couple of feet of tide change can make a big difference.

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This is just the summary…click through to the Transworld SURF website to see the day by day breakdown.

http://surf.transworld.net/1000100825/features/2010-vans-pier-classic-surf-forecast/

Monday’s Surf – Monday Morning quickie

Monday is looking like surf day…but there may be some more fog issues in the morning (and a little fog texture to go along with it) which may keep it from being a “very good” surf day.

In the water we have a mix of holding WNW-NW swell (285-300) and some building SW swell (200-220). The swell models really like this SW swell for some reason but I am still a little leery of both the size and consistency since the energy heading towards Socal is going right through the the SPAC islands and that always does some funky chicken with the energy, usually chewing out some of the size and the consistent.



That being said…some initial energy from this new SW’er is actually showing on the buoys this evening…O-side has about ½ a foot of energy around 20-seconds right now…and the swell is supposed to get bigger as it fills in more over the next couple of days. Check out the buoy from Sunday night.



Sizewise…things look pretty fun…the average spot will see lots of surf in the waist-chest high range with a few shoulder high sets sneaking into the well exposed combo breaks. The standout SW/WNW-NW facing spots will see more consistent chest-shoulder high surf with some head high (and probably bigger) sets sneaking in when the two swells manage to combo up properly.

Winds look ok…only ok…in the morning. There is still a little instability holding in the upper level of the atmosphere…which tweaking out stuff down on the surface. For the most part it looks like light and variable winds on tap for most areas…with a few pockets of some light offshore texture around LA and Ventura…and then some similar onshore pockets around Orange County and parts of San Diego (which is German for “whale’s vagina”…well at least that is what Ron Burgundy told me! )



Winds shift onshore around midmorning and then continue to increase…going variable onshore around 10-15 knots for most exposed areas.



I think it is going to end up being a bit of a funky day on Monday…mostly because the wind/weather/swell aren’t lined up all that well. For example we might see plenty of S-SW/WNW-NW swell at a break but most of the surf will be buried by the fog and roughed up buy the winds that always see to go along with it. That being said…sometimes you can pony up for a foggy session and find some playful peaks hiding out in the mist. At this point I think that getting on it early will be the best call…the winds start to push in pretty early during midmorning and it looks like they it could be a bit breezy by the afternoon. I would probably stick with the S-SW facing points/reefs…but the combo spots, particularly the beach breaks with good exposure and groomed sandbars…could end up being pretty fun too.

Here are the tides…have a good one…looks like more offshore winds and bigger swell on tap by the middle of the week…so if you don’t get some of this one…there will be some more chances later.

03/22/2010 Monday
01:16AM LDT 4.7 H
09:48AM LDT 0.4 L

Waves for the Weekend – A couple of surf days

Saturday and Sunday both look like surf days.

There won’t be a ton of swell in the water…but the latest weather forecasts have backed off the funky winds considerably compared to what I was looking at yesterday, which is definitely a good thing. Swellwise we will have a mix of WNW-NW swell (285-300) that will be backing off slowly on Saturday while it mixes with a better looking S-SW swell (180-200). Neither swell will be all that big…but they will be good enough to keep playful waves going at the well exposed spots and even a few little peakatolas at the best combo spots.



Saturday we can expect the average exposed spots to see surf in the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets sneaking into the better combo breaks. The standout spots, mostly the standout S facing breaks and the excellent combo spots in Orange County and San Diego, will have more consistent waist-chest high surf with some inconsistent shoulder high+ sets sneaking in on the lower tides.



Sunday a new WNW-NW swell (285-300) will move in to reinforce the dropping NPAC swell…it won’t add a ton of size but it will add a little more kick to the surf and help increase the consistency of the bigger sets. The S-SW swell (180-200) will continue to slowly drop through the background…but we can still expect a few small/playful sets at the well exposed spots. Look for most breaks to continue to see the knee-waist high surf while the standout WNW-NW/S-SSW combo spots see some inconsistent chest-shoulder+ sets.

Both days look pretty clean during the mornings. Expect light and variable winds for most spots and a few areas with some very light offshore flow. It looks like we will be fighting a bit of a marine layer…maybe even some patchy fog…so don’t be surprised if visibility isn’t always that good. The winds should stay on the light side through the afternoons on both Saturday and Sunday…but expect the sea-breeze to develop enough to driving some variable 10-12 knot onshore flow into the more exposed spots.

Saturday Morning Winds



Sunday Morning Winds



It was very nice to see the weather/wind forecast improve for the weekend…I hate seeing any sort of swell get the shaft from the weather conditions. While the surf won’t be the most exciting sizewise I still think we can get out and have some fun. Light winds, decent morning tides, and some waist-shoulder high sets, are all making a pretty good argument on getting out of bed early and braving the cold sand sprint. I think that the beach breaks are going to have the best shape, especially at the top combo spots in OC/SD…but a few of the S facing points are going to be pretty good too. Personally I am going to hunt down a quiet little peak/sandbar close to home…and if the winds stay good, see how many grumpy messages my wife will leave on my phone while I am in the water (my personal best is 5).

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…Have a great weekend gang!

03/20/2010 Saturday
07:01AM LDT 0.4 L
01:05PM LDT 2.7 H
05:38PM LDT 1.9 L

03/21/2010 Sunday
12:19AM LDT 4.9 H
08:14AM LDT 0.5 L
02:56PM LDT 2.4 H
05:57PM LDT 2.3 L