Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 1/11/2010

Forecast Overview

Slowly fading but still fun surf holds through Tuesday…and then a much larger WNW swell hits Wednesday. The new swell will peak Wednesday afternoon and hold strong through Thursday before fading slowly into this upcoming weekend. Expect some funky weather/winds through midweek but it clears out pretty fast and goes back to sunny and slightly offshore by the end of the work week.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday
Our W-WNW swell (275-300) backs down a bit on Tuesday but will continue to send in plenty of rideable surf. Small SW swell continues to hold in the background but is nearly impossible to find on the beach. Average spots will continue to see surf in the chest-head high range while the best WNW-NW facing breaks see consistent shoulder-overhead surf with some sets going a couple of feet overhead. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds through the morning, possibly even a few areas of light offshore texture. NW winds around 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon. Increasing cloud cover and chance of rain is possible by the evening/nighttime.



Wednesday
A hefty new swell hits on Wednesday sending in a large shot of W-WNW energy (260-300 with the main part of the energy hitting around the 285-300 range). This one is coming from a large, fairly intense, storm that has been slowly marching across the NPAC…and it doesn’t look like it is joking around. At this point I am expecting the average W facing breaks to see consistent overhead surf…with sets going a couple of feet overhead. The better WNW facing breaks, particularly in areas known for working better on Winter swells, will see sets going consistently overhead…with some bombs coming in several feet overhead, probably bigger. The top NW spots in areas like Ventura and San Diego will see surf in the well-overhead range with sets hitting double-overhead and bigger at times. It looks like this swell is going to hit the exposed spots almost too hard…just making a mess of most of those breaks. I think this is going to be one of those swells that it will pay to check out the really protected breaks and see if any energy is wrapping in. Winds/Weather: Funky cloudy weather, but with light winds…sort of light and variable in the morning with a couple of pockets of onshore texture. Look for building WNW winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.



Thursday
The large WNW swell (270-300 but with the prime energy in the 285-300) will hold into Thursday...fading just slightly as the swell periods back down. Unfortunately it looks like winds could be sort of craptacular. Average W facing spots will continue to see head high to overhead surf with some sets going a couple of feet overhead. WNW facing breaks see consistent overhead+ surf with bigger sets mixing in. The standout NW breaks, again in Ventura the South Bay, and San Diego, will go overhead+ to well overhead on most sets while some of the bigger sets hit around the double-overhead range. Winds/Weather: Steady WNW winds are expected on Thursday…not sure how strong in the morning, but enough to junk up the exposed spots. Look for variable onshore flow around 5-8 knots and then building onshore WNW winds around 10-15+ knots for the afternoon.



Friday
The big swell continues to slowly back down, but expect some still good-sized surf roaming around throughout the day. Average spots will hold onto shoulder-overhead sized surf while the standout NW facing breaks still manage to pull in well-overhead sets. Winds/Weather: Winds improve on Friday as our high-pressure tries to reestablish itself over the area. Look for light/variable to light offshore flow through the morning and NW-NNW winds around 10-15+ knots for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
So for the last couple of days I have been watching the storm that is setting up waves for midweek and comparing it to the wavewatchIII model…and it is doing a pretty bang-up job of living up to the forecasts. At this point the storm has done the majority of the swell generation…so like you read in the short-range part of the forecast…we can expect a pretty big W-WNW swell to come up fast on Wednesday and hold solid surf through the end of the week. At this point I expect the top NW spots to see some legit double-overhead sets…but this swell still has a chance to come in a bit bigger…the storm will push toward us for at least another 12-24 hours…which if the winds in the fetch hold up, will put the whip-cream and the cherry on top of this swell.



Right now the wwIII model is calling for something close to 10- to 12-feet of deepwater energy @ 15-16 seconds…which means that spots that can focus this sort of energy could be even bigger. Anyway it is just something to keep in mind, I mean really after a certain point sizewise it just stops mattering to most of us normal folk.

Further out there is more storm activity forming out the back…one system is set to come through right on the heels of the one we have right now. It would send in a smaller, but still healthy reinforcement of WNW energy that would arrive on the 15-16th and help to hold some good-sized, overhead surf, at the top breaks through the weekend.

Even further out (I know this is getting ridiculous) the charts are showing another large looking storm forming in about 4-5 days. If it lives up to forecasts we could be looking at another healthy WNW swell for around the 18-19th. The weather looks like it might be jacked up too but hey at least there is more swell in the forecast.



South Pacific
Not much going on down south…at least nothing that is really worth mentioning. Expect some small SW swells to push in over the next week+ but just evaporate in the larger WNW energy. Further out there may be a slightly better shot of S swell (180-190) coming our way for the 21-22nd…more details as it forms.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, January 14th, 2010

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 1/07/2010

Forecast Overview

It will be a surf weekend, and it will be a surfy early next week, with more surfiness later next week, and an extra helping of surf the following weekend. Really there is just going to be a lot of waves from overlapping WNW swells that last “at least” through the middle of the month.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
It looks like our swell is lagging a little bit right now…so I am expecting new waves to show on Friday but just start a little slower than it looked like they did in the last forecast. New W-WNW swell (275-300) moves in early in the morning and builds throughout the day mixing with some WNW-NW energy from earlier in the week as well as some weak S-SW pulses. Look for a decent jump in size for most of the exposed spots with the biggest waves arriving late in the afternoon and holding overnight into Saturday. Average breaks will be running in the chest-head high range on the sets. Better WNW facing breaks will see shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in. Top WNW-NW facing breaks, like those in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will see shoulder-overhead surf with sets going a couple of feet+ overhead at the best spots. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable to light offshore winds in the morning, variable winds for midday, and slightly onshore flow later in the afternoon. Again the winds are going to be light enough that we will probably see a bit of evening clean-up as the sun sets…look for the cleanest conditions at spots that have more protection from the wind (things like kelp and/or high-cliffs).



Saturday
The W-WNW swell (275-300) will hold on Saturday…probably even getting a little more consistent as the ass of the swell (which is the 14-15 second period energy) gets a bit more established. Expect wave heights to remain pretty much the same. Average spots hold around shoulder-head high with some rare head high+ sets. Better winter spots see some shoulder-overhead surf and the standouts stay around head high to overhead+ with sets going a few feet overhead at times. Again look for the biggest waves in the regions with direct exposure to the swell. Winds/Weather: Another good wind day…light offshore to light and variable in the morning and only mild onshore flow below 10 knots on tap for the afternoon.



Sunday
More W-WNW swell (270-290) arrives and jumps on the back of the swell that hit Fri-Sat, which means the size cranks up a couple more notches…the more westerly swell direction helps a lot too, basically pushing energy into spots that were a little more shadowed on the first part of the swell. Look for the average W facing breaks to be running consistently shoulder-high to overhead on sets. WNW breaks will build into the head high to a couple of feet overhead range…while the standouts see consistent overhead waves and sets going several feet overhead…maybe bigger at spots that can really focus the energy. Winds/Weather: Still freaking clean! Light and variable winds in the morning for most areas with some moderate offshore winds near the passes and canyons…and when you get done with your 3rd session of the day you can ride home on the unicorn that has been patiently waiting for you on the beach.



Monday
Uh yeah, that swell that pushed up on Sunday…it is going to hold into Monday. Basically read the paragraph above, replace “Sunday” with “Monday” and you are set. Winds/Weather: It is going to be good, again. Clean in the morning, slightly bumpy in the afternoon. Just go surfing will you.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Really what is there to say…lots of WNW swell on tap through the weekend and it looks like even more on tap next week. Conditions look great too. At this point it isn’t really about if there is surf or not…it is more about what sort of wave do you want to surf? Which is a pretty nice problem to have.

To go into the details a little bit more…The NPAC storm track is blowing up…storm after storm is cycling through the mid-latitudes and every time one moves out of our window a new one forms out the back. Again this goes back to that complex low that has been owning the central North Pacific for what seems like forever. Looking at it on the Visible Satellite image from GOES…it seems like the same storm churning and churning just to the NNE of the Hawaiian islands, stretching up toward the Aleutians…



From a pressure/front standpoint it is a large area of low-pressure that has hiccups of intense energy pushing through the mid-latitude part of its circulation, that are the by-products of warm/wet air mass being sucked into colder high-latitude low. Check out what this looks like on the sea-level pressure charts with the isobars…



If you look back through the last few analysis charts they all look the same…so much so that I had to go and double-check everything…I thought they were broken. Craziness.

Anyway weather-nerd stuff aside…all of these storms are just stacking up W-WNW swell for us to enjoy. We have overlapping W-WNW swells that hit Friday and into this weekend, setting up lots of overhead waves for the top spots. The surf will drop slightly by Monday afternoon but then another large, likely well overhead, WNW swell hits again on Tuesday (Jan 12th) in the afternoon and peaks into Wednesday (Jan 13th). That shot of energy is expected to hold decent size through the second half of the week, and possibly get another reinforcement of WNW-NW energy around the 15-16th. Man I can feel my noodle-arms already…having this much surf is going to be awesome.



South Pacific
I think the NPAC is sucking the life out of the SPAC…cause it is pretty dismal down that way again. Looks like weak S-SW pulses will move up over the next week or so…but they are just going to mangled by the much larger W-WNW swells. Expect small, almost unrideable sizes at S facing spots with no W-WNW exposure.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, January 11th, 2010

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/