Random Swell Update – New NW swell is filling in nicely

So I was looking through the buoys this evening (I know, I know I should probably get this case of “forecast OCD” looked at) and I am seeing the new NW swell (290-300) showing some decent size.

Check out the San Nicolas island buoy, which is sort of an outer buoy for Socal in the sense that it is more exposed to swells in the open ocean with less shadowing from Point Conception and the Nearshore Islands.



We won’t see all of this energy along our beaches but it is nice to see a good sized lump (considering that it is early/mid September) moving though our nearby stretch of ocean. I even think that I am going to add a little more size to the forecast tomorrow.


Nice to see some green on the chart!

So for Sunday…we can expect this NW swell (290-300) to mix with some background tropical SW swell (190-215) and some steady local windswell. Average W-NW facing spots are going to be in the chest-shoulder high range on sets. Standout NW facing breaks, particularly in Ventura, the South Bay, a few breaks in North OC, and most of the winter breaks in San Diego (biggest in the South County), will be more consistently in the chest-head high range, maybe even a few bigger sets mixing in at the top spots on the right tides.

If the periods were a bit longer I might have added more size to the surf tomorrow but as it is I think that it will still be plenty fun…and fairly consistent with punchy workable waves at the best exposed areas.

Winds still look a tad dicey tomorrow, not victory at sea or anything, but some onshore flow/texture at the more open spots…sort of westerly through SB down through North LA, variable through the South Bay, and sort of S-SW for OC and San Diego. It will still be rideable even with the bump/texture…but don’t expect perfect conditions. Have a good one…hopefully the update will help you grab a few tomorrow.

Waves for the Weekend – who ordered the combo platter with a side of funk?

Both Saturday and Sunday look like surf days...nothing spectacular...but at least rideable.

We have a bunch of overlapping swells pushing in over the weekend. On Saturday we can expect a mix of tropical S-SW swell (190-215), building local NW windswell, and some minor energy from the SW coming out of the Southern Hemisphere. On Sunday the tropical energy will back down but it will be replaced by a new NW swell (290-300) that builds in through the morning and begins peaking by the afternoon. Look for the NW energy and some more background SW energy to continue into early next week.





Finding the well exposed spots will be little tricky this weekend, mostly because the SW energy (tropical and the longer-period stuff from the S.hemi) will be more dominant on Saturday, but by Sunday the NW swell moves in and takes over, shifting the larger waves to the best exposed NW winter spots.

On average we can expect waist high surf at most spots on Saturday...with waist-chest high sets at the better exposed breaks. Top SW facing spots, particularly those with a bit of combo exposure, will be more consistently in the waist-chest high+ range with a few bigger shoulder high sets on the lower tides.

Sunday the SW’ers drop off a touch while the new, playful sized NW swell (290-300) fills in throughout the day. Look for the average breaks (both SW and NW) to hold around waist high+. The standout NW facing spots, as well as the excellent combo breaks, will be consistently around the chest-shoulder high range. The best breaks that can really focus the NW energy will be a touch bigger on the sets. Look for the biggest waves through the San Diego, Ventura, and South Bay areas...but with the combo still out in the water it looks like rideable waves showing in most areas.

Winds look a tad funky...(of course the wind tries to screw with us the second we get waves...where was all the wind when it was flat? Stupid wind.)...the forecast models are indicating some light onshore W flow in the mornings. It looks like it will stay under 5-knots for most areas, which isn’t bad, but there may be some texture/bump at the most exposed spots. What I am hoping is that models are overcalling the wind-speeds and that we will be more in the “light/variable” range in the morning. You can increase your odds of getting cleaner conditions by heading to spots that offer up some protection from the wind.

Saturday morning winds


Sunday morning winds


Personally, since we do have some swell in the water, I will probably take a little extra time looking for surf this weekend. I don’t think I will be driving any sort of real distance...the swell mix just isn’t that great...but I will probably spend a few extra-minutes looking in some nooks and crannies closer to home and see if I can find a little combo peak without too many guys on it. If you live a ways away from the beach you might want to give the cams/buoys/winds a check on the computer before burning down to the beach just in case the tides and winds are killing your spots.

Here are the tides...hope you guys score a few!

Saturday
03:40PM LDT 5.1 H
11:58PM LDT 0.3 L

Sunday
07:04AM LDT 3.6 H
11:03AM LDT 3.0 L
05:08PM LDT 5.4 H

Surf for Friday – Friday Funtime

Friday is looking like a surf day.

It won’t be huge or anything, but we can expect some playful sizes at the better exposed breaks, light winds, and some nice warm water in most areas. On Friday we are going to see a mix of S-SW tropical swell (190-215) from Hurricane Linda, some local NW windswell, and some background SW swell still creeping out of the Southern Hemi. Again the CDIP isn’t showing a lot of action...but the waves are out there.



Wave heights are going to average around waist-chest high for most S-SW facing spots tomorrow. The average NW facing breaks will be closer to the knee-waist high+ range. The top breaks, particularly the well exposed combo breaks, will be in the chest-high+ range fairly consistently and will see some bigger shoulder high sets mixing on the lower tides. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few larger sets starting to sneak in later in the day as the tropical swell picks up a touch more.

Winds look ok...mostly light and variable through the morning with a couple pockets of texture showing at the more exposed areas. Look for WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots moving in through the afternoon.



The S-SW facing breaks, the ones that like short-period tropical swells, will be the best call tomorrow...I actually think that the points/reefs will have a little bit better shape...but the beach breaks, particularly ones with some sort of structure to break up the S-SW lines, will be fun as well. It looks like Orange County, parts of North LA, and parts of Northern SD, will have the largest and most consistent surf...but the SW/NW mix should have some rideable waves showing most places (Santa Barbara might get left out). I would probably bring boards that like smaller waves...just cause there isn’t a lot of size...but thicker/fishy shapes will probably be pretty fun at the right spots.

Here are the tides...

Fri 02:04PM LDT 5.1 H
10:44PM LDT 0.7 L

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/10/2009

Forecast Overview

Wave heights are coming up slightly over the next few days as more S-SW energy from Linda (now Hurricane Linda) fills in and mixes with local windswell and leftover SW Southern Hemi swell. Look for a decent WNW-NW swell arriving on Sunday and holding into early next week.

Short Range (next 3 days)



Friday
We will have a mix of tropical S-SW swell, local NW windswell, and some background SW swell. Most spots will hold around waist high with some inconsistent chest high sets mixing in at the better exposed breaks. The top S-SW facing spots, mostly through Orange County and San Diego, will have waist-chest high+ surf fairly consistently but with a few bigger sets mixing in at times. Winds/Weather: Light and variable for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon.

Saturday
The tropical S-SW swell (200-215) will strengthen a touch and mix with local windswell as well as some more background SW swell. Wave heights will come up a not with the average spots seeing some more consistent waist-chest high surf. Standout S-SW facing spots, the good combo breaks and spots that like shorter-period swells, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with a chance for a rare bigger set on the low tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The tropical S-SW swell (200-220) will start to back off slightly but still mix with some NW/SW energy. A new WNW-NW swell (290-300) moves in throughout the day and will start adding size to many of the winter spots. Most breaks will continue to hold around waist-chest high but now with some plus sets getting into the mix. The standout breaks, particularly NW/SW combo spots, will be in the shoulder high range with some head high sets combo-ing up at times. This looks like a decent surf day…combo swell with some tropical activity driving part of the combo as well as a longer-period WNW-NW swell…I think I am going to have to cancel all of my chores for the morning. Winds/Weather: Light and variable for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon.

Long-Range



North Pacific
The storm that we were watching in the last forecast has formed over the last couple of days and is now in the process of setting up some WNW-NW swell (290-300) for later this weekend and into early next week. We will see that new energy arriving at spots in Ventura (and much more shadowed) in Santa Barbara later Saturday night. This swell will fill in more overnight and will push down throughout the rest of Socal. Look for the swell to peak with waist-chest high surf at the better NW facing spots and some chest-shoulder high+ sets coming through at the top spots. Look for this energy to hold into Monday and then slowly start to wind down as we move into the week. Check out the winds on that storm…



Further out it looks like the NPAC is going to quiet down stormwise…so we are going to see marginal leftover energy, and local windswell through most of next week.

South Pacific
The SPAC is just sort of cruising along right now…not kicking out any significant swell, but not going completely dormant either. We are going to see a mix of smaller, less consistent, SW swells over the next week or so…and then a slightly better SSW swell (190-210) moving in around the 18-19th.

We had a couple of storms, one underneath New Zealand and another over by Chile that will both likely send us some swell. This next round of swell, both SE (170-180) and SW (205-220) will begin arriving on September 12th but peaking into the 13-14th with chest high+ waves at the best exposed spots. Those waves will hang around for a few days and it looks like more similar sized SW energy will help to reinforce the first pulse around the 15-16th.

Even further out it looks like a better set of fetch is forecast to form in about 2-3 days that could set up a better angled S-SSW swell (180-200) for around the 18-19th of September. Again nothing huge, but it will be a more consistent chest-shoulder high sets for the better summer spots. Here is the storm setting up that swell.



Northeast Pacific Tropics
TS Linda strengthened Wednesday night and is now Hurricane Linda. If you read the tropical update that I issued earlier you already know that Linda is now a much better looking storm from a wave-making perspective.



She is still sitting almost completely still while she increased in intensity, both of which are good for swell production and, because the storm is a bit stronger, the swell-periods it is kicking out are a bit longer (which shortened travel time for the swell)…so we actually have tropical S-SW swell (190-210) showing here on Thursday, which is nice since it is sending us most of the rideable waves that we are seeing today. This tropical energy will continue to hold through Friday, strengthen slightly on Saturday, and then start to slowly fade out on Sunday. Overall it won’t be a huge swell, but we can expect consistent waist-chest high waves at the average spots with some chest-shoulder high waves at the top S-SW facing spots.


Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, September 14, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com