North Pacific Swell Alert – Large WNW swell forecast for Later this Week

   

Unless you were living in a sea-cave being raised by your evil dolphin family…you probably already know that there has been a strong storm forecast to brew up in the North Pacific and that it will be sending us some swell relatively soon. I have been watching this storm for the last 7+ days and have had it in the long-range forecast but have been staying on the conservative side in terms of size and conditions. Computer models are fine and all that, but if they get bad data in…bad data comes out. So I like to wait till I get some actual measurements from the various satellites, ship reports, or buoy data if the storm is close enough to a platform.

 Well I got some of the first real data back today…from the WindSAT, which measures…wait for it…wait for it…wind, (it actually measures a combination of water vapor in motion using “the first space-borne polarimetric microwave radiometer.” For an even more nerdier answer additional information on WindSat, please visit STAR WindSat web site. (psst I suggest only looking at this if you are an insomniac and/or going on Jeopardy in the near future.)

 

Anyway…here is a zoomed in version of those winds just to the N-NE of Hawaii…still moving towards us.



And this, just for fun, is an overlay of those winds on top of the wavewatchIII swell model…so you can see why the angry red/purple/white blob is being generated. Keep in mind that this storm is also following in the wake of the system that set up the new WNW swell for Tuesday/Wednesday…so it gets to add a sort of “drafting affect” to the swell it is generating, adding in more energy on top of already active seas aimed toward the west coast. Basically it takes less energy to get the water moving the right way, so it’s more intense winds don’t have to work as hard and still produce a bigger swell.

 

 If that wasn’t enough, another satellite, the JASON-1, went right over the storm, so not only are we confirming that there have been 40-50 knots of wind in the key areas of fetch, the sea-state in the core of the storm has been about 28-32’ feet (even if you knock off about 10-12 feet of those seas as messed up short-period chop, you are still looking at 18-20 of deepwater swell about 2000-2500 miles from the West Coast. OK enough snoozeville…lets get to our actual surf. The West Coast, mostly California from Point Conception up through Southern Oregon, are going to have this W-WNW swell (275-300+) hit with long-period energy on Thursday, peaking overnight into Friday. Most average breaks in the region will be running consistently double-triple overhead on sets with a few of the deepwater big-wave spots, like Mav’s going 4-5 times overhead…maybe even bigger if the tides and wind cooperate. Check out the spot specific forecast 
for Maverick’s here.

 

There is enough W-WNW swell (275-300 but strongest 285-300) in the mix that a good chunk is forecast to make it into Socal, peaking on Friday and into Saturday with about 6-7 feet of deepwater swell @ 17-18 second swell periods…which you can see on CDIP nearshore forecast for Friday. 6-7’ feet may not seem like a lot at first, but remember this is deep water energy…and certain breaks will take that size energy and multiply it into a much bigger breaking wave. Right now, I am expecting W-NW facing spots in Socal (that aren’t shadowed by the nearshore islands) to see surf in the overhead to well overhead range on the sets…with the top spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and especially San Diego, seeing waves hitting close to double-overhead and possibly even a little bigger if the storm holds together for another half a day before breaking off to the NE. Anyway…make sure to keep an eye on our spot specific forecasts if you want to know how this swell will affect your favorite break (a quick hint, click the 7-day swell forecast tab under the red “advanced tools” section…it will break the swell down into 3-hour blocks, and showing the wind and the tides associated with that time, as well as the surf size and the top three swells in the mix…it is pretty cool.)

 

  Here is the one for Mav’s if you are curious. Keep checking it too…the model updates every several hours, so you may see different wind/swell data if things change. Oh and I think we should all personally thank my good friend Clint for planning back to back business trips during the next couple of weeks and Mother Nature likes to send good swell to Socal when he goes out of town. So thanks good buddy…have fun in Boston and Canada! If this keeps happening, I think we may start a "Send Clint out of SoCal" fund to keep the wave machine on.

Swell Alert – New S-SSW swell heading our way for next week

Another good looking South Pacific storm has been moving through our S-SSW swell window over the last few days and has setup another round of S-SSW swell that will arrive next week. It even has a second storm trailing behind the first that will help to keep this swell rolling for a few days after it peaks.



This storm has solid 35-40’ seas in that key part of fetch…and wind speeds running easily 40-50+ knots at times.



I am even seeing some pockets of 60-65 knot wind barbs in the center of that storm…that means this bad-boy had portions of fetch that were brushing nearly hurricane strength. Keep in mind that this isn’t a “computer model” this is actual recorded data from the WINDsat satellite.



The second system is still forming right now but it looks like it is going to have a little more of a southerly angle than the first. Since this one is traveling right on the wake of the first storm it gets to capitalize on all of the lovely sea-state set up by the super strong winds. The second storm isn’t as strong as the first…but it will still push a pretty decent sized swell that we can tack on to the end of the first one.

This S-SSW swell (180-210)will start to arrive in Southern California really late Sunday night (July 18) with some long-period energy in the 20-22 second range…this by itself won’t put much new surf on our beaches…but it will show on the buoys. The main part of the swell will be arriving throughout the day on Monday (July 19) and will eventually peak Tuesday through Wednesday (July 20-21) before slowly tapering off later toward the end of the week…but it won’t drop that fast or that much thanks to that second reinforcement of S swell.

Sizewise...Monday will start on the slow side…it will have a some new waves showing in the morning but the waits between sets may be a bit long. I expect a lot of chest-shoulder high surf for the average spots and maybe a few head high sets at the standouts…again it will be pretty inconsistent so expect to be waiting around for waves. By the afternoon the size will be on the way up…and we can expect some shoulder-overhead+ surf at the standouts by sundown.

As the swell peaks…(on Tuesday and Wednesday)…we can expect consistent chest-head high surf for the average S-SW facing spots along with some bigger overhead sets mixing in. The standout SSW-SW spots, mostly through OC and at a few of the other good summer spots as well, will have shoulder-overhead surf with some inconsistent sets going a couple of feet overhead. The best breaks (you know where they are already) will probably have some bigger waves mixing in…but that size won’t show everywhere.



This swell will actually hit Central America and Mainland Mexico harder than it hits Socal (like most of them do) and a bit earlier. That region can expect the SSW-SW swell (190-215 it is a little more westerly) to arrive faster throughout the day on Sunday…with the peak of the swell hitting mostly Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. The average S-SW facing spots can expect consistent overhead surf with sets going several feet overhead. The standout breaks will be well-overhead to brushing the double overhead range…while the best deepwater spots see some bigger sets mixing it up.

That is all I have for now…make sure to check the daily forecasts as this swell gets closer…and cross your fingers that this weather holds.

Swell Update - Well hello there West Swell!

Here is the harvest buoy from Saturday afternoon...the new swell is starting to spike up...

Swell Update – Heads up for the weekend...

Check out what the forecasts are calling for Saturday morning…sometimes the pictures can say it better than I can.

The swell



The wind



About the only thing that sort of sucks…is the tide



...don't worry I will have all of the details coming through in the Long-range forecast tomorrow.

Swell Alert/Update – New W-WNW swell starting to fill in

I am working on the forecast update for the weekend but I thought I would throw out a little teaser.

Most spots were coming up this morning but the main part of the new W-WNW swell (270-300) hadn’t really started to arrive. That is starting to change…right now the “outer nearshore buoys” (the ones that are positioned in the more open waters around Point Conception and outside of our nearshore islands) are starting to pop. Check out the Lajollasurf.org Buoy Summary list…there are a lot of blue arrows pointing east (the way the swell is going).



And here is the Harvest Buoy…it is running about 10-feet at a dominant swell-period of 17-seconds. In fact about 80% of the energy showing on the buoy is coming in from the W-WNW with swell periods of 10-12 seconds or longer.



Here is the old school CDIP chart...check out the shift in the scale.



The wind isn’t perfect, but it isn’t blowing that hard either…and it is looking like there is a good chance that it will clean-up or even glass off at spots with a little protection. With the manageable winds, building swell, and ok tides I think that we might be able to have a little Friday-funtime in the right spots.



If you guys are still at work I would seriously consider faking some sort of an emergency, or a bad case of the “number 3’s”…you know…“sorry boss that chipotle burrito is going right through me I think I need to go uh…home…yeah home”. I hope you have your gear in your car.

One more thing…I just want to give a shout out to Joe over at Lajollasurf.org for providing the sweet buoy interface. That thing has been a go-to for me pretty much since the interweb was invented, and it plays a major role in helping me with these forecasts. He has had that thing up and running for over a decade now and lets everyone use it for free…so incredibly cool…anyway thanks Joe! This would be a lot harder without your efforts. ~ Adam (Make sure to check out his site if you haven’t already… http://www.lajollasurf.org/ )

Coming Soon to a beach near you!

I don't know about you but I think that the North Pacific looks a little bit angry right now.



Best part is that this storm is only the first one...forecast models are showing them stacking up out the back.

Swell Update – WNW’er starting to show out there

The new WNW swell is starting to come in with some really long-period energy this afternoon...nearly 22-24 seconds...and a decent swell size, depending on where you are, already showing about 2-5-feet of deepwater energy with the larger sizes closer to Point Conception.

Check out the Harvest Buoy (which will always show the swell bigger and earlier thanks to its position).



And here are a couple of surf-camera screenshots that I grabbed before sundown…





Looks like some fun on tap for tomorrow (and Thursday.)

Swell Alert – Good sized W-WNW heading to the West Coast

A strong new W-WNW swell will start moving into the California Coast late tonight, hitting the Northern and Central California regions well after sundown and eventually peaking in those regions on Thanksgiving.

Southern California will start to see some WNW-NW (280-300) long-period energy (18-20 seconds) later Thursday afternoon…eventually peaking throughout the day on Friday and holding into the weekend.

Like most of the intense storms we have seen so far this season this latest system is another mix of extra-tropical moisture from near Japan and a colder, higher-latitude, cold-front moving off of Siberia and the Kamchatka Peninsula. The rapid cooling of the warm-moist air-mass is helping to fuel the storm’s intensity, which has been pretty impressive…40-50+ knots of wind and 30-35 foot seas have been recorded (not just forecasted) in the key areas of fetch. Check out the latest JASON-1 satellite data…you can find this same stuff over on the Stormsurf.com website…and as usual a bit thanks to Mark Sponsler for letting me poach a couple of charts now and then. Make sure to visit his site when you get a chance.



And here is the equally impressive WavewatchIII forecast chart…as you can see the two are pretty matched up.



Anyhoo…the pictures are pretty in all…but lets talk about some surf.

Northern and Central California

The new W-WNW swell (275-315) is already showing on the SE Papa Buoy (#46006)…and actually started to hit this outer buoy around 4-5 am this morning with a sizeable dose of energy in that 18-20-second swell-period range. Check out the buoy’s historical data…





This buoy is about 600 miles west of Eureka…and is generally considered the 1-day buoy for Northern and Central California, which means that it takes a swell in the 17- to 18-second period range about 23-24 hours to actually hit the Northern/Central Cal beaches. (This buoy is usually 36-40 hours away form Southern California, depending on the swell period…)

So based on the buoy data, and the JASON-1 pass, this is going to be a pretty solid swell for the exposed spots North of Point Conception. It will peak with 12-14-feet of deepwater swell, which generally translates into consistent well-overhead to double-overhead+ surf for the average spots. Top breaks will be more consistently in the double-triple overhead range. Best deepwater breaks, like Mavericks, will see steady 14-16-foot faces with some bombs coming in around 20’+ on the face.



Winds and weather are going to cooperate on Thursday…lots of light/variable winds in the morning with some spots seeing light/moderage offshore flow through the first part of the day. NW winds build in through the evening and strengthen more into Friday…if you are surfing this area, Thursday will definitely be the cleanest and likely the most fun day of this swell.

Check out the CDIP models for the area…







Southern California

Socal is going to see some new long-period WNW-NW energy (280-300) showing in the well exposed Santa Barbara and Ventura breaks late in the afternoon/evening on Thursday. The swell will fill in more overnight and will start to peak for all areas by midmorning on Friday.

Friday Morning…



This is another one of those swells where the majority of the energy is riding in around 290-300…but with enough (more) westerly energy from (280-300) to keep waves showing at the lesser exposed spots.

As this swell peaks we can expect the average WNW facing spots to see consistent chest-shoulder high surf with sets going head high…with a couple of bigger sets mixing in. The top NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and parts of San Diego, will see consistent shoulder-overhead surf with some sets going 2-3-feet overhead…and possibly bigger at those excellent breaks that can focus the long-medium period NW energy.

Winds look good for both Thursday and Friday…mostly light and variable through the mornings (a little more offshore on Thursday)…and then only moderate onshore flow around 10-15 knots for the late afternoon. Stronger NW winds build in later Friday evening.


Overall…this is looking like a pretty good swell, particularly if you like big waves and you live up North. For SoCal though…I think it will be fun, but due to the majority of the energy coming in from 290+, there will be some shadowing issues…and if you don’t stick the best exposed spots you won’t see the larger surf. It will be rideable almost everywhere that has exposure…so you don’t “have” to drive far to get waves, but if you are looking for the overhead stuff plan on heading to the normal winter standouts.

Swell Alert – Large WNW’er heading to Northern and Central California…Socal gets some scraps

This storm has been showing on the wave-height charts for days…a bright red angry meatball of 35- to 40-foot+ seas sitting right in the heart of the Gulf of Alaska.



If you have been reading the long-range forecasts, you already know that this storm formed thanks to a blending of a cold frontal low and a couple of different pockets of extra-tropical activity…one that bled into the storm track over by Japan and another that jumped into the mix just NE of the Hawaiian Islands. As usual these infusions of extra-tropical energy helped to greatly intensify the higher-latitude storm, making it both larger in size and helping to strengthen winds.

Check out what the QuikSCAT satellite is showing today…and remember this isn’t a forecast or a wave-model…these are “actual” recorded wind speeds…



This storm is managing to through together a huge area of intense fetch…40-50 knots of wind across an area approximately 1000 miles wide and 2000+ miles long…which is why the wave-models are going bonkers. Here are a couple of shots of that storm on the NOAA/GOES satellites.



On these you can see the “swirl” of the storm as the cold-front plows through a warmer air-mass positioned over the Gulf. The stuff you really want to pay attention to is the torn up clouds that follow that swirl…the winds of the storm behind the front are what is shredding the clouds.



Seeing those clouds, hopefully moving towards your location even if they are way out in the ocean, is a good thing. It means that the winds of the storm are intense enough that it is blowing both in the upper atmosphere AND along the surface…which is what we need for generating swell.

Ok I think that is enough weather nerdery for now…lets talk about the surf.

As the title of this post states…this is an Alert for Northern and Central California…not for Southern California. Yes we will get some waves from this storm pushing past Point Conception but they will be a shadow of what the directly exposed spots will be seeing.

Unfortunately for Southern California most of the storms fetch has developed a bit too far north to do us much good. Here are the swell windows overlaid on that same QuikSCAT chart…



You can see that most of the intense stuff is occurring above Socal’s NW swell cutoff, which is right about 300-degrees. However there is some less intense fetch that is in our window…so we will see some waves. (I put on the prime NW swell window for NorCal on that chart too…you can see that the strongest part of the storm is sitting right in the regions WNW-NW sweet spot.)

Northern and Central California





This new WNW-NW swell (280-320…but with most of the energy around 290-315) will start to arrive late on Friday overlapping with some energy from an earlier NW swell. I expect some large sets to begin pushing in later in the afternoon on Friday, particularly at spots North of San Francisco.

The peak of the swell will hit on Saturday Nov 7th. This swell in open water is expected to be around 15-18’ @ 15-16 second periods…pretty damn large. At this point it looks like average exposed NW spots will be easily in the double to triple-overhead range, while the better exposed spots see more consistent triple-overhead sizes …and bigger bombs mixing in. Deepwater spots, breaks that focus this sort of energy, have the potential to be a lot bigger. Spots with protection, like many of the breaks in Santa Cruz will be more manageable since the swell angle is pretty NW…not as much energy will be able to wrap around the corner. Winds and weather are a little spotty…NW winds 10 knots and some scattered rain on tap for the morning. NW winds 10-15 knots build in through the afternoon, stronger the further North you go.

The swell will hold through the day on Saturday and then start to slowly wind down on Sunday…still big with lots of double-triple overhead sets. Conditions look better as high-pressure starts to shift winds to the North-NNE for most areas. This looks like a better day overall, mostly because of the improving conditions.

Quick Note on the Maverick’s contest - it sounds like the competitors in the Mav’s contest voted not to have the contest on this swell…they want to wait for a better swell and/or better conditions. Really Mav’s likes to have some longer periods and the swell to be a little more WNW than NW to help the shape of the bowl. Whatever…these dudes are crazy. You can check the contest site (and sign up for updates) here…

http://www.maverickssurf.com/

Southern California



We will see this new NW swell (290-300+) start to arrive through the day on Saturday and eventually peak on Sunday before fading out on Monday.

On Saturday we will already have some surf showing thanks to a smaller storm that pushed through before the big one formed...so the day will start off with some playful NW energy in the waist-chest high range at the top spots. The new NW swell will start to show in the afternoon, particularly in the exposed areas of Santa Barbara and Ventura since they are a little closer to the action.

The new NW swell (290-300) will peak overnight into Sunday morning…by then we can expect all of the average WNW-NW facing spots, as well as a few combo spots, to be in the chest-shoulder high range. Top NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, can expect shoulder-head high surf with overhead sets...wouldn’t be surprised to see sets going a couple of feet overhead+ at the best spots. Winds look a little funky for Sunday…so we are going to need to keep an eye on that, hopefully it is just the models acting up with storm front passing by to the north of us.

I am still being a little conservative on my wave heights for Socal…(hey I am a belt and suspenders sort of guy when it comes to this stuff)… so it is possible that we see a little more size if the later parts of this storm pull together in a better position than the charts are indicating today. I will let you know if I see anything change.

Swell Alert – Strong Southern Hemi setting up for next week

A solid looking storm has been trying to chew off parts of Antarctica in the South Pacific over the last couple of days while moving through our swell window. The storm is continuing to intensify and in the process it has kicked out a series of S-SW swells that will begin arriving late this week and then peaking next week.



This storm has been in the process of building our S-SW swell mix for the last few days. It initially formed up over by New Zealand…and while the fetch looked a bit zonal on a flat chart it was lining up some decent 40-50 knot winds towards Southern California, Baja, Mainland Mexico, and Central America.



Over the last 4 or so days it continued to track across the South Pacific to the east…while managing to maintain some fetch aimed our direction…it also swung some more energetic fronts through that fetch that helped to keep the wind speeds in the 35-40+ knot range. Now that the storm has moved deeper into our swell window it is starting to intensify on top of the swell that it has already built. Think of running your hand through a bathtub...the longer and faster you move your hand the same direction the more that water piles up in front of it…that is what the storm’s winds are doing.

Current forecasts are showing the most intense part of this storm developing over the next couple of days…You can already see the winds starting to spike up on the quikscat.



Same chart close up...


I expect the little 50-knot triangles to spread out and cover a larger area as we head towards midweek, which is a “good thing”…if you are going to be technical about it.

Ok enough storm-nerd geekiness…lets get on to the waves.

Mainland Mexico and Central America are going to get the lion’s share of this swell (like usual). There are actually two distinct portions of the swell…an initial SW swell (210-220+) that starts to arrive on the 20th and peaks the 21-22nd…and a more Southerly SSW swell (190-210) that moves in late on the 22nd and peaks the 23-27th. The first few days of the swell will have consistent overhead surf at the top spots with overhead+ sets mixing in at the top spots. Once the second part of the swell really hits its stride we can expect exposed areas to see surf going consistently several feet overhead while the standouts see double-overhead sizes. The best deepwater breaks like Puerto Escondido will have waves going double-overhead+…and probably bigger at times.

Baja Sur will see the same mix of overlapping S-SW swells (200-220 at first…then shifting more 180-200) but will be a touch smaller than the Mainland spots. Still we can expect the long-period energy from the first swell to fill in slowly on the 20th, showing more on the 21st and then peaking the 22-23rd. The bigger S swell arrives through the day on the 23rd and starts to peak later in evening, holding solid from the 24-27th. Most S-SW exposed spots will see some shoulder-overhead sizes through the first days of the swell but will peak with consistent overhead sizes by next week. Look for the top S facing breaks to have consistent overhead surf with sets going 2-3’+ and possibly bigger sneaking through at times as the second swell peaks.

Southern California and Baja Norte will see new long-period SW swell (210-220) arriving on the 21st…slow at first, but filling in slowly through the day. The SW’er will peak through Saturday and Sunday (Aug 22-23rd) with consistent chest-head high surf at the better exposed breaks. Standout SW facing spots will have some shoulder-overhead sets. The second S-SSW swell (180-200) moves in late on the 23rd but fills in more on the 24th…peaking late on the 24th holding strong through the 27th. As the second swell peaks we can expect consistent shoulder-overhead surf at the average S-SSW facing breaks. Standout S facing spots will have head high to overhead surf more consistently and will have some sets going 2-3’ overhead at times. The super S-swell-focusing spots will have some bigger sizes at times when the second swell peaks.

Overall I think this is going to be another solid run of Southern Hemi swell …but at this point I don’t think it will be as big as that swell in July, mostly because that storm was quite a bit closer than this one. I do think that this incoming swell will last longer, with more days seeing quality surf, than the one huge pulse. Anyways…that is what I have for now…I will keep you guys posted as the storm moves through the last phases of strengthening.

Swell Alert – Solid SSW swell for the end of the week

We have a solid SSW swell (180-200) heading to Socal later this week. Look for lots of long-period forerunners to start filling in through the day on Thursday and the peak of the swell arriving Friday and Saturday (July 24th and 25th).

There has been a lot of activity down in the Southern Hemisphere over the last couple of weeks. In general it was your standard SPAC winter storm activity...mostly zonal (west to east) flow with a few bursts of stronger action that would cough out some playful S-SW swell in our direction.



Late last week things started to get a little more interesting...we had a large intense area of low-pressure develop along the higher latitudes just as a very warm, very humid, low-pressure dive-bombed from the tropics/sub-tropics over by New Zealand. These two systems mixed over the weekend and we had legit storm, with consistent 40-50 knot winds, develop right in a key area of our swell window. The result is a nice SSW swell (180-200) heading our way for later this week.



Swell Timing and Sizes

Like I said above...the swell will start to arrive on Thursday July 23rd with some very long swell-periods. Current wave models are showing the swell hitting with some decent energy at 20+ seconds. I don’t expect a ton of new surf showing early on Thursday but it will definitely be increasing in both size and consistency throughout the day. I wouldn’t be surprised to see head high+ sets at the standout S facing breaks (particularly the ones that like long-period energy) by sundown.

By Friday, July 24th, the swell will start to peak (with 18- to 19-second swell-periods), and mix with some weak WNW windswell (not really enough to break it up). Average S facing spots can expect consistent shoulder-head high+ surf with bigger sets mixing in. Top S facing spots, in Orange County, North LA, and North San Diego, will be head high and overhead fairly consistently with sets going 2-3’ overhead on inconsistent bigger sets.

Saturday, July 25th, the SSW swell will continue to peak with sizes similar to Friday...so lots of shoulder-overhead surf at the better summer spots and some overhead+ sets at the standout S facing spots.

Eventually the swell winds down on Sunday but plan on it sending plenty of fun surf into early next week. (More swell from the Southern Hemi will overlap and keep us in waves through the end of the month).

A few notes on this swell

I am expecting the points and reefs to be the call on this swell, there isn’t a lot of windswell forecast to be in the water when this hits...so the beach breaks will likely be pretty walled up and see lots of the lovely South-North current (if I wanted a trendmill so badly I would go to the gym). If you can’t surf a point/reef you might be able to find some workable sections off structures (like piers/jetties)...but I wouldn’t head to those areas unless you are out of other options.

Baja

This swell will hit Baja as nicely as it is hitting SoCal...Northern Baja will have very similar sizes and timing to SoCal. Southern Baja will have a little more size, consistency, and will see the swell hit about a day earlier...so it will build in on Wednesday and peak Thursday/Friday/Saturday before backing down.


Ok that is all I have for now...check the daily forecast updates for more details as we get closer to the swell arriving.

Swell Alert – Healthy S swell on tap for next week

Good news...there is a healthy S swell (170-190) heading to SoCal that will peak early next week.

I have been watching a nice South Pacific storm spinning due south (almost SSE) of Southern California for the past several days. If you were looking at the forecast charts this system didn’t look like what you would “traditionally” expect to see in the South Pacific. Most times you have a low-pressure that develops down in the higher-latitudes, around the 50-60 degree latitude rage, over near New Zealand. The traditional system will move west-to-east through the storm track and, if it turns out to be a good swell-maker, it will make some sort of northward push while it is in our swell window.

This storm was actually what forecasters sometimes call a “cutoff-low”, which means that the trough of low-pressure is blocked off from the larger storm track by a ridge of high pressure. Generally the cut-off lows will develop in lower latitudes, which means it has a lot of access to all the warm-moist latent heat energy stored in the tropics. If the atmospheric conditions click in the right way a cut-off low can become quite intense as pulls up the tropical moisture...which is what happened in the case of this system.

Check out the sea-surface pressure chart of this system...I highlighted the good part of the fetch with the horrible red photoshop and bad penmanship.



And here is a shot from the QuikSCAT. You can see the 40-50 knot winds that developed as the storm started to fire off.





There were actually three really good things about this storm...first off was, that by being a cut-off low, it was quite a bit closer to us than it would normally be, which means that we will see a few thousand miles less of swell decay. Second the fetch in the storm made the good push northward which means that the wind had more time to produce the swell. Lastly the system hung together for a few days, which also gave the wind more time over the water, and added some duration to the swell.

Ok all this weather stuff is all well and good...but lets get on to the surf.

For Southern California, we will see this swell start to fill in quickly on Monday, (June 15th), and then peak on Tuesday-Wednesday before slowly fading through the rest of the week. We are also going to have some good-sized leftover SW swell (200-220) coming in from another storm that will peak over the upcoming weekend but will hold plenty of energy in early next week as the S swell hits. Sizewise I am expecting consistent shoulder-head high surf for the average spots and some overhead sizes as the top S-facing breaks.

The mix of these swells means that all of the summer spots will have some sort of surf early next week...so you are basically going to get to pick your poison when it comes to surf spots. Likely the points and reefs are going to be the best shape as this mix hits...but I am crossing my fingers that we see some windswell brew up over the weekend to help us break it up...and thin out the crowds in some spots.

This swell will actually hit Baja Sur (and Central/Northern Mainland Mexico) even harder than it hits SoCal. I expect the swell mix to move in fast in those areas on Sunday...peaking by the afternoon and holding through Monday before slowly dropping towards the end of the week. In Baja look for consistent head high surf at the S facing spots with sets going overhead+ (probably near 7’ faces on the big sets) as the swell peaks. Mainland Mexico will see similar sizes but may be a bit bigger as the SW swell hits the area harder.

Good times...check back for more updates as we get closer.

Swell Alert – Another S-SSW swell

The South Pacific, especially the part that makes up our swell window, really likes springtime. We have already had two pretty decent S swells...and I don’t know about the rest of you but I have surfed more over the last few weeks than I did almost completely through Dec-Jan.

Anyway, like I mentioned in yesterday’s forecast we have another S-SSW swell (180-200) heading our way. This swell was kicked out by a pretty decent looking system that had been trolling around the South Pacific for the last 4-5 days.

Check out what the QuikSCAT passes picked up on this storm...



And here is some Altimetry data from the JASON-1 satellite. (As always a big thanks to Mark @ stormsurf for letting me use an image now and then...please check out his site www.stormsurf.com when you get a chance...the guy is an awesome forecaster and brilliant at putting the wave/wind/satellite data into useable formats).



Thanks to all of the pretty colors you can see that the storm had cranked up the core wind speeds into the 50-knot+ range at times as well as laid down a solid area of fetch. What was even better was that this storm had a lot of pre-existing sea-state to work with, which basically means that a previous storm came through moving roughly the same direction and tore up enough of the ocean surface that the winds in this new system didn’t have to work so hard...sort of like the “shampoo-effect” if you have ever had back to back days of drinking. All of this storm action has strung together a pretty solid pulse of SSW swell that will be hitting the usual regions starting around the middle of next week.

Here are the details...

Mainland Mexico and Central America
The really long-period energy (and I am talking 20+ seconds) of the SW’er (200-220) fills in slowly on the 21st...but the peak of the swell hits late on the 22nd and holds solid through the 23rd and 24th. Look for spots in this region to see consistent overhead+ surf at the better exposed spots. Standout breaks, particularly the good deepwater spots and outer reefs, will see sets going several feet overhead to nearly double-overhead at times. Even though the swell drops after the 24th expect several days of quality surf to continue to push into the region.

Baja Sur
The S-SSW swell (180-210) hits exposed areas on the 22nd and then peaks on the 23-24th. The swell is a little more southerly for this area compared to Mainland Mexico and Central America so it hits around the same time but with less size. As the swell peaks look for consistent head high sets at the average S facing spots while the standout breaks see overhead+ sets with some waves going a 2-3’ overhead on inconsistent sets. The majority of this energy will show at those really well-exposed spots...expect the more protected points/reefs to be smaller (but still fun).

Southern California
The S-SSW’er (180-210) fills in with the long-period forerunners on the 22nd, but with most of the energy arriving through the afternoon evening. The swell comes up fast through the 23rd and eventually peaks late that Thursday...holding through Friday and Saturday (the 24-25th) before dropping. In our region this swell looks good for shoulder-head high surf for the average S facing spots. The standout S-facing summer spots, mostly through Orange County (but in a few of the other regions too), will have more consistent head high and overhead surf with sets going 1-2’ overhead during the best conditions.

Hope you guys get a few good ones out of this swell.