Swell Alert – Solid Storm in the South Pacific

The SPAC blew up this weekend...the storm that was in the process of setting up swell for this coming weekend went berserk…so it looks like we are going to be able add some wave-size to the swell heading to Socal/Baja and a lot MORE SIZE to the swell heading toward Central America, Southern Mainland Mexico, and host of other travel locations.



The storm by itself was pretty well organized…it was positioned well in the storm track, moving the right direction…with a bit of south-to-north movement, and it was already pretty intense (30-40 knots in a few areas)…but then a much smaller, but very warm tropical system, dumped a bunch of extra-tropical energy into the mix…and just like that wind speeds blasted up into the 50-60 knot range. Check out the WINDsat measurements from the last few days…(the big black blobs are winds getting close to hurricane strength)…











Now check out the wavewatchIII swell model…you can see the bump of overlapping energy heading our way for the end of the week.



So the timing and size of this swell is going to differ a bit from region to region…so I broke it down a bit so you guys can plan to take advantage or it better.

Central America
The region will actually have a playful, overhead SW swell in the water when this big one starts to arrive. Looks like the new SW swell (200-225) moves in late Thursday night…coming up fast on Friday and peaking overnight into Saturday. The exposed spots in this area can expect solid well-overhead to double overhead surf with some bigger double-overhead+ sets mixing it up as the swell really pops on Saturday morning. The standout deepwater spots that can really focus this swell could be in the double-triple overhead range…maybe bigger if all the pieces fall into place. NOTE: There is a little bit of swell-shadow that some of the areas have to watch out for…the Galapagos islands have a tendency to soak up a bit of the swell heading toward Costa Rica and sometimes Southern Nicaragua on one side and Northern Panama on the other. Oh it will still be good sized in those areas but it won’t see the big bombs that the directly exposed spots will.

Southern Mainland Mexico (from Puerto Vallarta South)
Southern Mainland Mexico, due to its positioning, and weird swell focusing abilities, will probably be the hardest hit (in terms of wave size)…possibly going much larger than other regions. Like Central America there will already be a playful overhead+ SW swell in the water as this new pulse starts to arrive…so if you get there early there will be plenty of surf before the bigger waves hit. The new SW swell (200-220) will move in on Friday, starting a little slow in the morning, but coming up fast through the day and then peaking overnight into Saturday. This swell looks good for nearly 10-12’ of deepwater swell…so I would at minimum be expecting the average spots to see similar sized surf as the swell moves into shallow water. The standout breaks that focus some of this energy will see 10-15’ faces as the swell peaks, and the freaky spots, like Puerto Escondido, will likely get close to 15-20’ faces on some of the bombs that sneak through. This swell will start to drop on Sunday and wind down to more survivable sizes on Monday.

Northern Mainland Mexico (from Puerto Vallarta North)
This region isn’t quite as exposed to the new SW swell as the spots further south but it too will see good sized surf as this swell hits. Look for the SW’er (195-220) to move in on Friday, starting off on the slow side for the morning, but strengthening steadily throughout the day and peaking into Saturday before fading Sunday/Monday. This region’s average exposed spots will be more in the head high to several feet overhead range with some bigger bombs showing now and then. The standout SW facing breaks will likely get near the double-overhead range as the swell peaks early on Saturday.

Southern Baja
The timing for this region is very similar to Northern Mainland Mexico and parts of the Pacific side will probably be just as big. The swell moves in throughout the day on Friday and will peak after dark holding into Saturday. Most exposed spots will be head high to a few feet overhead while the standout Pacific side breaks and top exposed Cabo/East Cape spots see a few sets hitting the double overhead mark at times.

Southern California
The swell lags about a day behind the other regions further south before it moves into Socal. Right now it looks like long-period energy will fill into the background on Friday (May 21) and then the swell will build overnight, peaking through Saturday, holding into early Sunday before backing down through the early part of next week. It will also be a bit smaller up here…with the average exposed spots running shoulder-high to overhead on most sets and a few bigger waves hitting on the lower tides. The standout SW facing spots, mostly through Orange County and San Diego, will have consistent head high and overhead+ surf with some sets going a few feet overhead on those same low-tides. NOTE: It doesn’t look like winds are going to be all that great this weekend (stupid wind!) so don’t expect perfect clean conditions in our region…hopefully this is just the weather model being a spaz, and actual winds/conditions will be much cleaner.

Northern/Central California
Yep the swell has enough punch to push North of Point Conception as well…it takes the swell about an extra ½ day to head up there but it does eventually arrive later on Saturday afternoon and then peaking overnight into Sunday. Look for consistent shoulder-overhead surf for the better SW facing spots along the North and Central Coasts with a few of the top summer areas seeing some sets going a few feet overhead. Like Socal there may be some wind/weather issues as this swell peaks…but unlike Socal most of the regions summer spots have protection from the increase in WNW-NW winds that will likely push in during the peak of the swell.


Anyway…as you can tell this swell looks pretty legit…and it isn’t in some fantasy world that the wavewatchIII model is living in…it is actually a fully formed, ass-kicking storm generating this swell. Both the WINDsat and the Jason-1 (or is it Jason-2 now?) have both recorded 50-60+ knots of wind and nearly 40-foot seas in the core of the fetch aimed our way…so cross your fingers that us Socal non-travelers get some halfway decent weather as this swell starts to arrive. I will have more detail in the daily forecast as we get closer to the weekend.

Adam Wright
Forecaster
www.socalsurf.com

Tropical Update: TS Dolores

We have another new tropical storm...TD 5E formed up late last night, and by midmorning here on Wednesday it had become Tropical Storm Dolores.



Currently TS Dolores is holding approximately 1200 miles SE of Southern California and about 700 miles SSW of the tip of Baja. She is moving WNW (310) around 10-11 knots and is expected to intensify into a strong Tropical Storm over the next 24 hours. Long-range forecasts are showing TS Dolores hitting colder water (and some wind shear) after that 24 hours...but conditions are shifting that may allow her to stay more intense for a longer-period, which would be much better for us wavewise.



At this point TS Dolores is already in SoCal’s SE swell window...and is doing a few “good-things” that help swell production.

1. She is intensifying...(you always want the storm to get stronger or at minimum, hold strength)

2. She is a decent sized storm with almost 200 miles of 34+ knot winds in the NE and SE side of the system (the side that produces swell for us.)

3. She is moving roughly NW-WNW at a moderate pace. (The closer she can get to moving directly at us the more energy she will send out.)

4. Finally she isn’t too far...1200 miles is a reasonable distance...not great...but not as bad as it could be.



I do wish the storm was a bit stronger...and moving a bit more to the NW...but as it is I am still expecting some swell from Dolores.

Baja Sur will get waves from this Tropical Storm...I expect some S-SSW swell (180-190) to start showing at the exposed Pacific Side spots around the 16-17th with wave heights in the chest-shoulder high range for many spots and some bigger sets at the standouts.

SoCal will see this swell start to show through the day on the 17th strengthening towards the evening. Based on today’s forecasts the peak of the swell will be through the 18-19th. The swell will be more SE-S (165-180) for our region...so expect some shadowing at the start. Wave heights are going to be in the waist-chest high range at the average spots. Standout SE-S facing areas will be more consistently in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger sets.

Naturally we could see some bigger waves for all areas if TS Dolores intensifies past the current forecasts.

Swell Alert – Another S-SSW swell

The South Pacific, especially the part that makes up our swell window, really likes springtime. We have already had two pretty decent S swells...and I don’t know about the rest of you but I have surfed more over the last few weeks than I did almost completely through Dec-Jan.

Anyway, like I mentioned in yesterday’s forecast we have another S-SSW swell (180-200) heading our way. This swell was kicked out by a pretty decent looking system that had been trolling around the South Pacific for the last 4-5 days.

Check out what the QuikSCAT passes picked up on this storm...



And here is some Altimetry data from the JASON-1 satellite. (As always a big thanks to Mark @ stormsurf for letting me use an image now and then...please check out his site www.stormsurf.com when you get a chance...the guy is an awesome forecaster and brilliant at putting the wave/wind/satellite data into useable formats).



Thanks to all of the pretty colors you can see that the storm had cranked up the core wind speeds into the 50-knot+ range at times as well as laid down a solid area of fetch. What was even better was that this storm had a lot of pre-existing sea-state to work with, which basically means that a previous storm came through moving roughly the same direction and tore up enough of the ocean surface that the winds in this new system didn’t have to work so hard...sort of like the “shampoo-effect” if you have ever had back to back days of drinking. All of this storm action has strung together a pretty solid pulse of SSW swell that will be hitting the usual regions starting around the middle of next week.

Here are the details...

Mainland Mexico and Central America
The really long-period energy (and I am talking 20+ seconds) of the SW’er (200-220) fills in slowly on the 21st...but the peak of the swell hits late on the 22nd and holds solid through the 23rd and 24th. Look for spots in this region to see consistent overhead+ surf at the better exposed spots. Standout breaks, particularly the good deepwater spots and outer reefs, will see sets going several feet overhead to nearly double-overhead at times. Even though the swell drops after the 24th expect several days of quality surf to continue to push into the region.

Baja Sur
The S-SSW swell (180-210) hits exposed areas on the 22nd and then peaks on the 23-24th. The swell is a little more southerly for this area compared to Mainland Mexico and Central America so it hits around the same time but with less size. As the swell peaks look for consistent head high sets at the average S facing spots while the standout breaks see overhead+ sets with some waves going a 2-3’ overhead on inconsistent sets. The majority of this energy will show at those really well-exposed spots...expect the more protected points/reefs to be smaller (but still fun).

Southern California
The S-SSW’er (180-210) fills in with the long-period forerunners on the 22nd, but with most of the energy arriving through the afternoon evening. The swell comes up fast through the 23rd and eventually peaks late that Thursday...holding through Friday and Saturday (the 24-25th) before dropping. In our region this swell looks good for shoulder-head high surf for the average S facing spots. The standout S-facing summer spots, mostly through Orange County (but in a few of the other regions too), will have more consistent head high and overhead surf with sets going 1-2’ overhead during the best conditions.

Hope you guys get a few good ones out of this swell.

Swell Alert: S-swell for early next week (better conditions too!)

So a few days ago I mentioned a S swell that was going to be hitting early next week...then I got so freaking busy that I didn’t have time to get into the details. Anyway I am a giant swell-tease...but I am back to deliver.

We are going to see another good shot of S swell (180-190) heading towards California and Baja...which will also hit Mainland Mexico and Central America from more of a SSW-SW’erly (200-220) swell direction.

The storm that kicked out this S-SW swell (depending on where you are) actually spun up over last weekend. It wasn’t super strong, winds held consistently around 30-40 knots with some stronger gusts, but it had a number of good things going for it.

1. It was well positioned in our swell window
2. It moved closer than most storms get (the fetch actually pushed north of 30-south latitude)
3. It moved directly towards California/Baja (and Mexico/Central America)
4. It had a long lifespan (there were still some remnants of fetch holding together as of yesterday)
5. I heard Chuck Norris started it by kung-fu chopping a great white shark off the coast of Australia

In any case it looks like we should have some good S-SW swell arriving through the early part of next week.



Here are the details for each of the regions...

Mainland Mexico and Central America
The swell will hit Mexico/Central America on Saturday and peak Sunday-Monday before very slowly fading through the middle of next week. Look for consistent overhead surf through the region with some of the deepwater spots like Puerto Escondido seeing double overhead sizes.

Baja Sur
For Baja Sur we can expect the S swell to arrive at similar times...so the first part of the energy arrives on Saturday and the peak of the swell hits Sunday and Monday. It will be a bit smaller for this region...look for consistent shoulder-head high surf for the average S facing spots while the standouts see overhead waves with some sets going 1-2’ overhead at times.

Southern California and Baja Norte
Southern California will see the swell arrive on Sunday, with the peak of the swell arriving Monday and Tuesday. Locally the weather over the weekend for SoCal is going to be a bit crappy...but conditions start to improve about the same time the swell fills in. It also looks like we are going to see a decent WNW swell (290-300) arriving about the same time...(man I love combo swells!)...it won’t be a big WNW’er but it should help break up the S swell. Sizewise we can expect surf in the chest-head high range for most of the S facing spots. Standout S facing areas, particularly regions like Orange County, will have overhead sets. The swell will eventually start to fade on Wednesday...but expect it to continue to send in some rideable sizes through the end of the week.

Overall for SoCal it isn't going to be a huge swell...but there will be plenty of waves for most of the exposed spots, and the swell should have some legs...so, (weather permitting), we will get a few days of fun surf.

Travel Swell Alert: Another large SW swell heading to Central America and Mainland Mexico

We have got another strong storm brewing down near New Zealand that is looking to send a hefty SW swell to Central America and Mainland Mexico later this month.

California and Baja Mexico will also see some waves from this one but they will be quite a bit smaller.

Short-range forecasts are expecting this storm to be a beast...NOAA's WavewatchIII is predicting nearly 40-50' seas in the core of this system. Here check out this image from the swell model.



You can check out the animated version of this here

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nww3_pa.anim.gif


Here is a shot of the swell (in swell period form) about 6+ days from this post.




As you can see it sent a pretty solid blast of energy towards Tahiti and then on to Central America and Mainland Mexico. You can also see the South Pacific Island shadowing that occurs on SW swells (it is always sad to see that gap in the swell line up perfectly with SoCal...damn islands).

Here is the animation run for the swell period...you can watch the swell move across the pacific.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nww3_pa.anim.2.gif

If you look close you can actually see that the bigger swell isn't the only one in the water...there are actually a couple of other SW swells that have been kicked out. This is great from a travel perspective...it means that you aren't putting all your eggs in one basket...so you will have a good chance to score a longer run of waves.


Ok enough about the storm here are the arrival times and details on the swell.

Central America and Mainland Mexico - Since the swell is pretty SW in swell direction (210-225) it is actually going to both regions about the same time. There is another smaller SW swell coming in from the same direction that arrives on June 6th and holds around for a couple of days. This first one looks good for head high and overhead surf at the standout breaks maybe even a few bigger sets at top spots. The bigger swell hits on June 9-10th with surf in the overhead to well-overhead range for most areas while the standouts, mostly in Southern Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America see double-overhead+ sets. Spots light Puerto Escondido will probably go bigger than that as well. There will be some shadowing for Costa Rica and Panama from the Galapagos islands...so expect smaller surf in those countries. One other thing to keep in mind is the weather...TS Alma just got done douching the area with rain...it may not be very easy to travel to the more remote spots.

Baja Sur - The first SW'er (205-220) hits Baja Sur around 7th and sets up some shoulder-head high surf for the standout breaks on the Pacific Side...the Tip/East Cape may be a bit shadowed so expect smaller less consistent surf through that area. The second, bigger, SW swell peaks on the 10-11th with more shoulder-head high+ surf for the average spots and inconsistent overhead+ sets at the standout breaks. If you head down this way try and keep in mind that while there will be decent waves in this area it will lack a lot of consistency...especially compared to a swell coming in from a more southerly swell direction. So plan on it being fun...but not all-time.

Southern California and Baja Norte - Socal will have the first SW'er (200-220) limp in around the 7-8th...not the greatest swell for SoCal but it will put some chest-shoulder high sets at the top breaks in South OC and San Diego. The second, larger SW'er hits on the 11th with average spots building into the chest high+ range while the standouts, again in San Diego and South Orange County, see shoulder-head high sets. (I am being a bit conservative...there may be a bigger set sneaking though at times).

Nor/Central California – It actually hits about the same time as SoCal so you would be seeing the first swell on the 7-8th and the peak of the larger swell around the 11th. This one should be good for some head high sets at the standout SW facing spots…and you won’t suffer as much inconsistency as SoCal.

Anyway that is what I got for now...we still have enough lead time to get a cheaper plane ticket (if you get on it in the next day or so.) As usual if you head out of town make sure to send me some pictures and let me know how it was.

Swell Alert - New S-SE swell for Southern California and Baja

There has been an evil-looking nugget of a storm spinning down in the SPAC over the last few days.

QuikSCAT was recording nearly 50-60 knots of wind in an area of fetch aimed mostly towards Baja and, to a lesser degree, Southern California

Here check out this chart



This is a close up of the storms core...see the black wind barbs...the ones with the little triangles indicate 50 knots of wind...the ones with the triangle and extra lines means +50 knots (10 knots for each full line).



And here is the lovely, yet super small, WWIII visual product viewer...along with my usual incredibly artistic arrows. (man I need to get adobe illustrator on my computer at work...photoshop is killing me).



Anyway this storm has been holding in place for a few days which is pretty good for swell production. It actually started off a little less intense...so it pushed out some weaker S swell before it set up a bigger lump of energy.

From a surf standpoint Baja Sur, in particular the Tip/East Cape areas, will see the biggest part of this swell.

SoCal will see a smaller, but still fun, version of the same swell at the good S facing breaks once the swell moves up into our area.

Here are the more specific details...

Baja Sur
Baja will see this new S-SE swell (170-185) arrive on Sunday the 18th and fill in slowly through the day. Eventually the swell peaks on Monday and Tuesday (May 19-20) with surf in the shoulder-overhead+ range for most exposed breaks and top standout areas see sets going 2-3' overhead at times. It should be a fairly consistent swell in the Baja Sur/Tip area thanks to the open swell window...but expect size to drop off a touch as you move up the Pacific side.

Southern California
SoCal will see this new S-SE swell (170-180) arrive on Monday May 19 and build slowly at exposed breaks throughout the day. It will actually be overlapping a smaller pulse of S swell already in the water so it should be pretty fun even though the bigger swell won't really get going through the afternoon. The S-SE'er will actually peak Tuesday and Wednesday (May 20-21). Look for the average exposed breaks to see chest-shoulder high+ surf. Standout spots, mostly through Orange County and a few other select areas, see head high and overhead sets. Weather (at least at this point) is looking good for this swell...cross your fingers that the wind forecasts hold together.

S Swell Alert: UPDATE – Lots o south swell heading to Central America

Hey gang I was just checking up on that incoming S swell that will be arriving this upcoming weekend and things are still looking good.

Like I mentioned in the first post (click here to read the first one) the majority of this energy is heading towards Central America and Mainland Mexico…but Baja Mexico and Southern California are going to see some playful sized waves from this one as well.

Rather than retype all of the previous alert I through it in a picture this time. (The chart is actually the NOAA wavewatchIII peak-wave period forecast showing what will be happening late on May 10th. The giant red-orange blog eating Central America is the S swell. Click on the picture to get a bigger view.



In case you want to see what I wrote about this swell last week…

Previous Posts

S Swell Alert - New S swell brewing up around Antarctica

S Swell Alert - New S swell brewing up around Antarctica

So I got some good news and some bad news.

The good news is that a well positioned storm has spun up just off the coast of Antarctica. The storm has some decent wind speeds, a wide area of fetch, and is moving in a good direction. This system will be kicking out a large S-SW swell for Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico while at the same time sending some healthy, but more playful sized, surf to Baja and Southern California.

The Bad news is that the swell will hit over Mother's Day weekend. So unless your mom rips chances are you won't get to travel to score some waves on this swell.

Here are a few charts that highlight this storm and incoming swell...





There are a couple of things to note about this storm...from a positioning standpoint the core of this storm is almost out of the SoCal window...not quite but right on the edge for many of the SoCal regions...fortunately the fetch is pretty wide so edges of the swell direction will be a little "fuzzy". If it had moved a touch further eastward the swell would have been going back against the grain of the storm track and would have had a really hard time making it to SoCal.

Also this swell won't have to squeeze through the South Pacific islands which is an extra-bonus for socal. With a cleaner shot at SoCal we will actually see a bit more size and consistency from this one than we would from a more SW'erly angled swell.

So onto the swell details...

Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico
The main push of the swell is definitely aimed towards Central America...and due to the position of the storm it will last for several days after it peaks.

At this point expect the new SW swell (it has more of a 200-degree swell direction in this region) to hit late on May 8th, build fast through the morning of the 9th, and then peak in the afternoon of May 9th into the 10-11th. Look for surf running well overhead through the 9th with sets starting to hit double-overhead+ at the standout spots by the afternoon. Those waves will hold through the weekend before slowly trailing off through the first part of the next week.

(Please note that Southern Mainland Mexico is about 1/2-3/4 of a day behind on arrival times so the peak of the swell still hits on the 10-11th but shows less energy on the 9th).

Baja Sur
The S swell arrives in baja Sur late on the 9th, builds through the day on the 10th and peaks more in the afternoon of the 10th into the 11th. It will be a bit smaller through this region...so look for plenty of shoulder-head high sets at exposed breaks and overhead+ sets at the standouts along the Tip. Expect slightly smaller surf the further north you move along the Pacific side.

Southern California
SoCal will have a smaller, but still fun version of this S swell (180). This swell will arrive later on the 10th and will fill in more overnight eventually peaking exactly on Mother's Day (May 11th) and holding into the 12th. At this point we can expect chest-shoulder high surf for most of the exposed areas in SoCal. Orange County, in particular North Orange County, will have some head high+ sets at the top breaks.


This one is still a long ways off so you should have time to get your Mom the gift she really needs...A family vacation to Costa Rica! (yeah...good luck with that).

Make sure to check back I will have more updates on this swell as it gets closer. As always if you get some good pictures of this swell send them my way.