Tropical Update - Hurricane Rick starting to slow down

Hurricane Rick is starting to weaken…oh he is still pretty intense as storms go…but he has definitely toned it down from the Category-5 nonsense that he was putting out over the weekend.

Currently Rick’s core winds are holding around 100-knots (120-mph) with gusts hitting 120-knots (144-mph).



This weakening is due to a couple of factors…namely that Rick is hitting cooler water and upper level shearing at the same time. The National Hurricane Center is estimating that the shearing is close to 15-20 knots which can destabilize a hurricane’s convection pretty quickly.

Check out the difference in the satellite photos from Saturday afternoon compared against this morning’s. You can see that Rick has lost a lot of his shape…and thanks to the increased shearing most of his NW and SW quadrants have lost their cloud shape making the storm looking increasingly asymmetrical.

Saturday Afternoon



Monday Morning



And here you can see the sea-surface temps from the CIMSS site…that 27-28 degree (Celsius) Isotherm line is generally what forecasters consider the cutoff in sea-surface-temps needed for a storm to maintain its strength.



Unfortunately from a swell-perspective this is bad news for Southern California for a couple of reasons…first is that the storm is weakening and once a tropical storm starts to weaken, particularly when it is caused by shearing, it has a tendency to lift its winds off of the surface of the ocean in fluky periods, which means that the fetch potentially setting up swell is suddenly less consistent and broken up as the storm starts to destabilize.

The other sucky part of what is happening to Rick is that this shearing (which will push him back to the east faster than the original forecasts were estimating) will keep Rick from moving deeper into the Socal swell window.



Based on the latest satellite pics…I don’t think that Rick pushed far enough into our window to generate us much surf…sure half of the storm was over that little green line…but those winds were blowing the wrong way, which does us no good.

Rick still has a little more WNW-N movement in him before he hinks back to the ENE and towards cabo…but with the storm weakening and shearing starting to pull him apart I don’t think that he is going to get much of a chance to set up swell. It probably won’t be totally flat at the SE facing spots…but any swell that makes it out of Rick will probably be fairly small (mostly below chest-shoulder high) and short-lived even at the top exposed spots.

Basically this point it looks like any energy we will see will arrive throughout the day on the 21st out of the SE (155-165) and will be mostly small, shadowed (except in a couple of areas), and will be almost completely gone by Thursday the 22nd. Fortunately there will be more long-period SW and NW swell showing around the same time so hopefully Rick will just help to enhance the surf shape/consistency at the exposed breaks.

Tropical Update – Hurricane Rick – Chewing bubblegum and kicking a$$

I think that Hurricane Rick may be all out of bubblegum…because he is becoming a seriously angry looking storm.

Check out the latest Satellite photo from NOAA…you don’t draw hurricanes that look this perfect…let alone see one on a satellite photo.



The National Hurricane Center confirmed that Rick’s new estimated core winds are sustained at 155- knots with gusts reaching the 190-knot range…so we are talking about 186-mph sustained winds and gusts topping out near 230-mph, which is pretty ridiculous. Hurricane Rick is definitely well into the Category 5 storm range and is expected to maintain this intensity for the next couple of days.

Man even the NHC is getting almost poetic in the description of Hurricane Rick…check out what they wrote in the latest update….classic.

HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE WORD...SPECTACULAR. THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES ONE COULD SEE THE SUNLIGHT REFLECTING OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYEWALL AND THE STADIUM EFFECT THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE HURRICANES.



At this point it looks like Rick may actually gather a little more strength over the next 12 hours and then go through what is called an “eyewall replacement/replenishment phase”, basically the storm becomes so intense that it actually sort of chokes itself off…as it does this the organized convection/spin that forms the hurricane “eye” is disrupted and the storm is forced to sort of check itself before it can gather its intensity again. Usually as this occurs we see the sustained winds take a decent drop in speeds…and it takes some time before the storm can gather its strength again. Unfortunately in this case the forecast models are also showing a change in the overall atmospheric conditions, with the introduction of some upper level sheering, at about the same time that Rick hits cooler water...which will likely speed up his destabilization and weaken the storm significantly from its current strength.

I know…I know… “That is great Adam, but how does that help me get waves”…damn you guys are impatient I was just getting to that. :)

Ok from a surf perspective…Rick is basically going to kick out some serious swell for all of the nearby areas…namely Mainland Mexico, which is so close that the affected areas are likely seeing some adverse weather possibly winds from him, and the Tip of Baja which he is traveling towards.

Since Rick has been hanging out and strengthening for the last couple of days I wouldn’t be surprised if new SE swell wasn’t already showing along the Tip of Baja…it won’t be huge yet…but the main push of swell will be arriving over the next day or so. With a storm this intense it is a little hard to gauge size…but conservatively the directly exposed areas would be consistently in the 10-15’ face range…with bigger bomb sets likely hitting 20’ (hell maybe bigger if the storm gets a good run at this Cat-5 strength). Personally I don’t think that the directly exposed spots will even be very surfable…just too much water moving around…but some of those partially exposed areas up in the Sea of Cortez both on the Baja Side, and potentially on the Mainland Mexico side (as the storm moves further west) could be a bit more survivable…not that I would ever advise anyone to go towards a Cat-5 storm.

How does this affect SoCal…at this point not much…the storm is still outside of our swell window. But, and this is sort of a big but, the forecasts are showing Rick potentially hitting the eastern edge of our swell window sometime early Monday morning…and still holding onto some of its intensity. I am not to stoked on the odds of this happening, mostly because storms have a tendency to hook back to the NE this time of year…and if the forecast run is already showing that recurve there is a good chance that it will be more defined by the time it actually happens, which means that it might not even reach our window before going back to the NE and crushing Cabo or something.

But let’s get hypothetical for a moment and say that the forecast is correct…if the storm does follow the current track, it would put it inside of our swell window for about 12-20 hours as it hooks back to the NE, still around Cat-4 strength. We get a bonus in that the storm is still very strong, has established sea-state, and is moving even more towards us (so does the Pacific Side of Baja Sur)…we get a negative for only a portion of the storm making it over the swell window shadow, and the relatively short time it would have to generate fetch/swell. So potentially we could see a new SE swell (155-165) heading our way for the 21st…likely in the head high to overhead range on the sets, and possibly bigger if the storm moves further into our swell window (or hangs in place for some reason).

So that being said…I am not putting much faith in a significant swell for Southern California at this point…most of us know that a hurricane/tropical system can pull up lame in the swell-department for all sorts of different reasons. I am however sort of cautiously optimistic that Rick can reach our swell window…and I will definitely dial in the forecast sizes/arrival times as this becomes more likely. In the meantime…I will have to continue to watch the stupid computer and see what Mr Ricky does…stupid hurricanes.

Tropical Update – Tropical Depression 20-E forms

Well even though we are almost out of the “official” tropical storm season it looks like the tropics still have enough energy to spin up some activity.

Newly formed Tropical Depression 20-E formed this morning and the current forecasts are expecting it to have some real legs in the development department. They are expecting the storm to become a hurricane (possibly a Major Hurricane) over the next 48 hours. (Tropical Storm/Hurricane Rick when it becomes a named system).

While it is still a ways away from the Socal Swell window it looks like the Tip of Southern Baja and Central Mainland Mexico could be looking a some solid tropical swell over the next several days. Granted we still have to see a lot of development out of this depression…but it will definitely be worth keeping an eye on.

Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Patricia

TS Patricia formed late last night/early this morning…and is suddenly looking a bit more intense than previous forecasts were calling her to be.

Unfortunately Patricia is not in the Southern California swell window at this time…she is still a bit SSE of the tip of Baja and is expected to move northerly towards Cabo instead of the WNW we would need for her to reach the Socal window.



Current forecasts are calling her core winds around 35-40 knots but with some stronger gusts starting to develop. The NHC’s long-range models expect her to reach about the 50-60 knot range, which would put her at a “strong” tropical storm, right before she moves close to the tip of Baja. The National Hurricane Center has also tagged this lovely statement onto the tail end of there TS Patricia discussion…

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PATRICIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

They haven’t quite issued a Tropical Storm Watch at this point but it sounds like it will be issued sometime today.

As you can see on the extended part of the forecast run…Patricia might actually push back to the west, which might allow her to reach our window around Thursday…though I am not holding out much hope for that at this time.

Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Nora

A tropical disturbance that had been drifting about 600 miles SW of the tip of Baja began to organize late last night and has now strengthened into Tropical Storm Nora.



Currently TS Nora is weak-to-moderate tropical storm with core winds in the 35-40 knot range and gusts getting up around 45-50 knots. She is positioned about 900 miles due south of SoCal...and is moving slowly to the WNW (tracking at 300-degrees) at a slow speed of about 8-knots.





Forecast models are calling for Nora to intensify over the next 24 hours, reaching the “strong” tropical storm level and possibly becoming a hurricane. While this intensification is good news it sounds like it won’t last that long...while the models agree on the intensification they also agree that she will hit cooler water and some upper level wind shear shortly afterwards, which gives her a very short swell-making period. You can see her track taking her into cooler water on the chart below.



The good news is that NORA is already in our swell window and is positioned so that any swell she sends out will be a more “democratic” S swell rather than a shadowed SE swell. It also helps that she is moving slowly and has a slightly more WNW track.

The bad news is that overall she is still a pretty small storm right now...with her Tropical Storm strength winds only reaching out about 40-50 miles...and while that may increase as she strengthens it doesn’t look like it will get all that much bigger.

So after looking at today’s forecasts...I do think that we will get a few waves from Tropical Storm Nora but that they are going to be on the small side. I am looking for the new S swell (170-185) to start moving in with some tropical knee-waist high sets by late Thursday and holding into Friday. There is a chance that it will come in bigger if, and it is a big if, the storm strengthens significantly and holds together longer than the forecast models indicate...but personally I am not holding my breath.

Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Marty

New tropical activity brewing up today...TD-16e formed early this morning and has now strengthened into Tropical Storm Marty.



TS Marty is inside our swell window but he is hanging just on the SE edge of it...which isn’t the best location for sending swell to SoCal since lots of our areas stay pretty shadowed. At this point the storm is real lopsided with a lot of the cloud convection occurring on westward side of the system (the side that has winds aiming away from us)...you can see some spin on the lower levels of clouds but it is hard to tell if the storm is really putting some wind on the water. Check him out on the visible satellite image...looks like he is hanging a bit to the left.



If you can’t tell I am not super stoked on Marty...he isn’t the strongest storm, he doesn’t have great circulation, and a lot of his swell generating side is right on the edge of the swell window. On the other hand he does have a couple of points in his favor...he is relatively close to SoCal (aprox 1000-1100 miles), he is forecast to strengthen slightly, and he is moving very slow (but deeper into the more southerly part of our swell window).

So at this point I am expecting some SE energy from Tropcial Storm Marty...but I think it is going to be minimal...likely chest high and below for the best spots...with the energy arriving on Thursday/Friday. As usual a lot depends on how he behaves over the next couple of days...if things improve I will let you guys know.

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Linda becoming a hurricane

Tropical Storm Linda just got a little better looking



I have been watching Linda for a couple of days and her wave-making potential has been steadily increasing…so much so that we are actually seeing a little bit of tropical S-SW swell (190-210) already moving into our exposed breaks.

Linda has been sitting out in the NE tropical region…sort of hanging between our region and the Central Pacific tropical region. Initially forecasts had her jogging WNW slowly and then pushing westward further out towards Hawaii. But instead of moving she has hung almost completely still and strengthened, shrugging off some minor shear, and developing some nice feeder winds that stretch down into the ITCZ.



Now Linda is a strong Tropical Storm and is right on the verge of becoming a CAT-1 Hurricane. Her current wind speeds are holding around 60+ knots at the core with gusts to 70-knots at times. It looks like these will strengthen over the next 24 hours and push Linda into Hurricane Strength tonight and likely help her maintain those winds into midday tomorrow. Check out the QuikSCAT winds for the storm…



Surfwise what this means for us is some nice S-SW tropical swell (190-210) that fills in more on Thursday and will continue to push in some playful waves Friday through Sunday before we see a significant drop.

At this point I want to stay on the conservative side sizewise. I expect that the average SW facing spots will have surf in the waist-chest high range. Standout S-SW facing breaks, particularly spots that like the shorter-period S-SW swells, will be more consistently around chest high with some shoulder high sets mixing in. Chances are that we will see some bigger waves mixing on Friday/Saturday, depending on Linda actually reaching hurricane strength, but I don’t think we should count on them just yet.

Overall I think that these playful waves will be a nice filler for the gap in surf that we have been slogging through the last few days…nothing huge, but playful and at least rideable at the exposed areas.

Tropical Update – Hurricane Jimena

Just wanted to put up a quick update on Hurricane Jimena...it looks like she is starting to weaken a bit.

Winds are still estimated to be around 110-knots near the core, but it doesn’t look like she is going to strengthen right before moving over land, which is good news for the areas in her forecasted path.

Unfortunately forecast models are still not expecting her to move into the Southern California swell window...lots of weather and waves for Baja Sur...but no surf for us. (at least at this point).

Anyway here are a couple of the latest images of Hurricane Jimena, even though she is weakening I am glad she isn’t making landfall here...







Here is a cool movie from the NOAA/GOES satellite project...it takes a while to load (so I would only mess around with it if you have a high-speed connection).

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeswest/pacific2/movie/latest.mov

Tropcial Update – Tropical Storm Kevin and Hurricane Jimena

Man I leave computer range for a couple of days and the whole tropical region has to get all squirrelly on me…(hmmm maybe I should leave more often…sort of like a human sacrifice). Anyhoo while I was gone we got not one, but two new tropical systems; Tropical Storm Kevin and Hurricane Jimena.



Right now TS Kevin is a relatively weak tropical storm with winds holding around 35 knots and few gusts around 40 knots, which puts him right over tropical depression strength. Since he is inside our swell window, and sort-of organized (showing some convection), I think that we will see some swell from Kevin…t also helps that his storm track is taking him almost directly at us. I am not expecting a lot of surf…just a weak pulse of S-SSW swell (180-190) that arrives on September 1st and sends some minor knee-chest high waves into exposed areas…the swell should linger for a couple of days but unless he gets a lot stronger we aren’t going to a ton of surf from him.



Hurricane Jimena looks a bit more bad-ass. Right now she is about 500-600 miles SE of the Tip of Baja and has already reached Category 2 strength, with core winds around 120-knots and gusts nearing 145-knots. Her current track is taking her WNW around 7-10 knots...and the hurricane models are forecasting her to recurve back into Southern Baja as she intensifies. (The NHC is likely to issue a Hurricane Watch in Southern Baja for Jimena later tonight or tomorrow).



Unfortunately for Southern California Jimena is not in our swell window…and is not forecast to reach it before making landfall.



She will however be a wave-maker for Southern Baja, parts of Northern Mainland Mexico, and even a few of those protected spots in the Gulf of California. Swell from Jimena will be filling in today and should continue to build over the next couple of days as she continues to intensify. Sizewise it is going to be well-overhead as it peaks, and potentially very dangerous (as well as potentially very stormy) since the storm will be moving into the area.

I think it would be quite risky to head into the area to try and get surf from Jimena…I would maybe stick it out for an extra day if I was already down at an exposed spot (unless authorities told me to leave of course), but heading down, and likely arriving as the hurricane does, won’t be the best call. Even if the hurricane doesn’t make landfall right on top of you, there are always heavy rains and flash floods that can be very dangerous.

The track for Jimena isn’t set in stone…cross your fingers that she drifts a bit more west and swings wide in her recurve.

Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Ignacio

Tropical Depression 12e strengthened into Tropical Storm Ignacio this evening.



TS Ignacio is currently located about 650 miles SW of the tip of Baja and is in the S-SSE swell window for Southern California. Right now Ignacio isn’t a huge storm…core wind speeds are holding around 40-knots with some 50-knot gusts...and the good parts of fetch, the ones that are aiming towards SoCal are about 50-60 miles across.

Still he is going to be intensifying, at least according to forecasts, and could become a fairly intense tropical storm…he is not expected to reach hurricane strength at this time. You can see the convection (the cloud rotation) around the low in this satellite photo…



The more convection we see, and the more Ignacio looks like a hurricane, the better it is for swell production.

Another good factor…is his storm track…current forecasts have him moving WNW (290-degrees) at about 10-knots. This WNW path is actually supposed to steepen as he intensifies, which means that the stronger parts of the storm will be better aligned toward SoCal and could potentially be better for setting up swell.

From a surf standpoint I think that we will get some waves from Ignacio…nothing huge…but enough to ride. It looks like the first S swell (180) will arrive from Ignacio on Thursday. Since there will still be plenty of Southern Hemi swell in the water I don’t know that we are going to really be able to tell that the tropical swell is showing. Based on today’s forecast it looks like any energy from Ignacio would peak as we head into Saturday, hopefully the tropical energy will help prop up wave heights from our fading Southern Hemi…and keep us in consistent, but playful sized (chest-shoulder high) surf through the upcoming weekend.

Tropical Update – Guillermo is about to become hurricane

Tropical atmospheric conditions improved quite a bit for Guillermo here on Thursday. He has steadily intensified throughout the day and it looks like the National Hurricane Center is likely going to grant him Hurricane strength by later this evening. The latest forecast had core winds around 60-knots with gusts at 70-75 knots...core winds need to reach 65-knots for the NHC to call it a hurricane.



The strengthening, the increased convection, and larger size are all good for swell production and, to top it off, Guillermo slowed down a touch today. Instead of cruising along at 17-18 knots his movement speed has backed down to 12-13 knots, which will give the storm’s fetch more time over the sea-state it generates.



From a surf standpoint...we are definitely going to get a boost in the tropical S swell as we head into the weekend.

It takes S swell (in the 13-second range) about 2 days to travel from Guillermo’s position to Southern California...so I am expecting some slowly building tropical energy as we move through the day on Friday (since the storm formed on Wednesday). It won’t be much at first...but the swell will fill in more as we head into the evening. I would look for mostly knee-waist high waves at the S facing spots on Friday...with a few bigger waves at the top S-spots. The bigger sets will get a bit more consistent through the afternoon.

At this point, based on today’s forecast, it looks like the swell will turn slightly more S-SSW (180-195) as we head into Saturday. Look for the tropical energy to peak around midday on Saturday and hold solid through Sunday. The average S facing spots will likely be in the chest high+ range. The top S facing spots, particularly breaks that like tropical swell (the mid-low swell period energy...around 10-13 seconds), will be in the shoulder-head high range. Sets may be a bit inconsistent and finicky early on Saturday, but we can expect more consistency by the afternoon. The swell will hold into Sunday morning before fading out.



This isn’t a great storm, especially compared to many past tropical systems, but it will make some waves, and more importantly it fills a gap in our Southern Hemi activity. Should you bail on your family/kids, drop everything and try and surf 36 hours straight over the weekend?...no probably not...but if you were planning on doing chores or sitting around scratching yourself it should be worth a quick surf check, or an online pass through the buoys and cameras, once the swell gets going.

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Guillermo

Tropical Storm Guillermo formed today and is already in our swell window.



Currently Guillermo is located about 600 mile WSW of the Tip of Baja and is located almost due South of Southern California. The National Hurricane Center has just barely classified Guillermo as a tropical storm, which means that the core winds are being estimated right at the 34-knot cutoff (any lower and it is classified as a tropical depression).

The forecasts have TS Guillermo strengthen slowly but steadily over the next couple of days…likely peaking in intensity on Friday. Today’s forecast does not have him reaching hurricane strength, but if conditions become more favorable it is a possibility.



From a surf perspective, if Guillermo can strengthen past the low-level tropical storm strength, it looks like we should get some waves from him. Like always, with these tropical systems, you have to weigh the good and the bad against each other.

On the good side…

1. Guillermo is well positioned – He is already in the swell window and any intensification that he can make will benefit swell production.
2. He is a decent sized storm – the effect NE/SE portions of the storm are expected to have TS strength winds across about 150-180 miles. He also has a lot of feeder winds coming up from the equator…all of which helps to extend the effective fetch.
3. He is moving slightly WNW (290-degrees) which isn’t all that bad considering his position.

On the bad side…

1. He is moving fast – forecasts are showing 15-17 knots in the storms movement. This is actually expected to accelerate a bit over the next couple of days.

2. His projected position in a couple of days – because of the fast movement it looks like a lot of his intensification is going to occur while he is further off to the west (closer to Hawaii). The extra distance…plus the shifting swell angle…won’t help extend the life of any swell we see.

On to the actual surf…based on today’s forecast it looks like we are going to see new SSE-S swell (170-180) filling in later on Friday. It won’t be much more than waist-high+ at the better S facing breaks since the storm is still pretty weak…but if we see better movement and intensification there could be some bigger waves as we head into Saturday.

I will keep you posted if I see any significant changes.

Tropical Update: Tropical Depression 9E

A new tropical depression formed in the East Pacific yesterday...TD-09. Current forecasts are calling for this depression to slowly intensify over the next couple of days...possibly becoming a named storm by Tuesday morning.



Unfortunately at this point it doesn’t look like TD-09 is going to be much of a wave maker, even if it becomes a tropical storm. The system is very small, (not even 25-30 miles wide), it is moving away from us, and its movement speed is expected to increase as it heads further west.



Hopefully the tropical wave further eastward will develop into something more organized in the next couple of days.

Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Enrique and Tropical Storm Felicia

You have to love the tropics...it goes from nothing to two named storms (three if you count TS Lana in the Central Pacific) in about 10 hours.

Unfortunately neither EPAC storm is all that great looking from a surf standpoint...oh we will see some swell from TS Enrique, but TS Felicia might be a little too far to the west to get much energy back towards SoCal.

Check out the charts from the National Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm Enrique


Tropical Storm Felicia


TS Enrique is much more probable as a swell-maker...but overall he doesn’t look all that good. As of this morning he is moving WNW (290) at about 14 knots and is expected to strengthen slightly as well as slow down his movement path. Current forecast models are calling the storm strength around 50-55 knots sustained in the core with gusts around 60 knots. His positioning is about 1100 miles SW of the tip of Baja and about 1700 miles S of Southern California right in the middle of our swell window.

There are a few things to like about TS Enrique...his position is good, wind speeds are increasing (which means that he will be able to maintain “wind on water”), and his movement path is ok. On the negative side...he isn’t that strong, he isn’t that large, and 14-knots is pretty fast when your effective fetch is only 30-50 miles across.

Keeping those things in mind, I think that we are going to see some background S swell from Enrique...some minor energy will start showing slowly throughout the day on Thursday and will likely peak overnight into Friday. I am expecting surf in the knee-waist high range for the average spots and possibly some chest high sets at the standouts. (I tend to stay on the conservative side sizewise on tropical swells like these...but if I see conditions/winds improve I will adjust the forecast).

TS Felicia is a bit further westward than TS Enrique...and is already veering westward (275-280) at about 16 knots. She is likely to become a hurricane in the next 12 hours but with her position well away from our area and her quick movement westward I am not expecting much, if any, surf from her. Likely she will be a problem for the Hawaiian Islands (the Big Island in particular) in a few days.

Tropical Update: TS Dolores

We have another new tropical storm...TD 5E formed up late last night, and by midmorning here on Wednesday it had become Tropical Storm Dolores.



Currently TS Dolores is holding approximately 1200 miles SE of Southern California and about 700 miles SSW of the tip of Baja. She is moving WNW (310) around 10-11 knots and is expected to intensify into a strong Tropical Storm over the next 24 hours. Long-range forecasts are showing TS Dolores hitting colder water (and some wind shear) after that 24 hours...but conditions are shifting that may allow her to stay more intense for a longer-period, which would be much better for us wavewise.



At this point TS Dolores is already in SoCal’s SE swell window...and is doing a few “good-things” that help swell production.

1. She is intensifying...(you always want the storm to get stronger or at minimum, hold strength)

2. She is a decent sized storm with almost 200 miles of 34+ knot winds in the NE and SE side of the system (the side that produces swell for us.)

3. She is moving roughly NW-WNW at a moderate pace. (The closer she can get to moving directly at us the more energy she will send out.)

4. Finally she isn’t too far...1200 miles is a reasonable distance...not great...but not as bad as it could be.



I do wish the storm was a bit stronger...and moving a bit more to the NW...but as it is I am still expecting some swell from Dolores.

Baja Sur will get waves from this Tropical Storm...I expect some S-SSW swell (180-190) to start showing at the exposed Pacific Side spots around the 16-17th with wave heights in the chest-shoulder high range for many spots and some bigger sets at the standouts.

SoCal will see this swell start to show through the day on the 17th strengthening towards the evening. Based on today’s forecasts the peak of the swell will be through the 18-19th. The swell will be more SE-S (165-180) for our region...so expect some shadowing at the start. Wave heights are going to be in the waist-chest high range at the average spots. Standout SE-S facing areas will be more consistently in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger sets.

Naturally we could see some bigger waves for all areas if TS Dolores intensifies past the current forecasts.

Surf for Monday – Small Combo Mix

Monday is looking rideable…but it will be a touch smaller than Sunday.

We are going to have a mix of fading S-SW energy and some slightly bigger local NW windswell. Overall it won’t be the most energetic mix of swells but if you can find a combo spot, and hit it on a lower tide, you should be able to find a couple of fun sections.

Sizewise we are looking at mostly waist high surf at the average spots. The better S-facing breaks and combo spots will be around waist-chest high. Standout combo spots, mostly through parts of OC and Northern SD, will have some inconsistent shoulder high sets on the low tides.

Winds look pretty good in the morning…light and variable with even a few pockets of glassiness at the well protected spots. Look for WNW winds 10-14 knots to fill in through the afternoon. It will still be pretty warm tomorrow too…so expect beach weather along the coast.



I wish there was a little more swell in the water tomorrow…but in general it looks like a small/playful surf day with what we have coming through. The winds will be decent, the water is warming up, and it won’t be totally flat. If you don’t have to work on Monday it sounds like a good reason to get in the water.

Quick note on Hurricane Carlos…looks like he is having some issues…the National Hurricane Center downgraded him back to Tropical Storm strength this afternoon. A couple of the forecast models are showing him strengthening back to Hurricane strength while a couple more are saying that he might not intensify at all. At this point I am looking for some minor/moderate tropical S swell from Carlos with wave heights right around waist-chest high, filtering into exposed spots late Tuesday through Thursday. Nothing to get excited about at this point…but better than nothing.

Here are the tides for Monday…

12:32AM LDT 3.9 H
07:24AM LDT 0.9 L
02:08PM LDT 4.3 H
08:28PM LDT 2.2 L

Tropical Update – TD-4E is now Hurricane Carlos

TD-4E has strengthened quite a bit since Friday morning. Over the past 36 hours the tropical depression quickly intensified into the named Tropical Storm Carlos…and now, by Saturday afternoon, Carlos has reached CAT-1 hurricane status (sustained winds of at least 65-knots near the core).

Currently Hurricane Carlos is about 700 or so miles SSW of the tip of Baja (1300-1400 miles from SoCal), moving west (270) at about 10 knots.







Carlos is already in the Southern California swell window and is likely producing some tropical swell for us that would arrive early next week…likely filling in some energy later on Monday but showing the strongest on Tuesday-Thursday of next week (if Carlos lives up to forecasts).

It is a little early for sizes since Carlos just got up to speed…and swell production is going to greatly depend on how long he lasts (and how he moves)…but at this point we can expect some increased tropical energy helping to fill in some of the gaps in the Southern Hemi swells that we have showing over the next week.

More details as Carlos continues to develop.

Tropical Update - Tropical Depression 04E

We have another new tropical system starting to spin to life in the NE Pacific Tropics. TD-04E strengthened into a Tropical Depression sometime last night...and is threatening to become Tropical Storm Carlos sometime today.

Current forecasts are showing TD-04E potentially becoming a hurricane as it moves off to the west early next week.





As you can see on the chart TD-04E is quite a bit further south than Blanca was (almost 500-600 miles further south). This extra distance and the flatter, faster moving, east-to-west storm track is going to limit swell production...but by how much? It is a bit early to tell at this point. TD-04E is in our swell window so any strengthening or intensification is going to mean some sort of waves for us...likely by early next week.

Anyway just wanted to give you guys a heads up...I’ll keep you posted as things develop.

Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Blanca

Well the second named tropical storm of the season spun up pretty fast here on Monday.

Newly formed Tropical Storm Blanca (I don't know if any of you watch that showtime show Weeds...but it is hard to hear "Blanca" without thinking about it)...pulled together about 900 Miles SE of Southern California (and about 400+ miles SSW of the tip of Cabo). Blanca is currently moving WNW (305-degrees) at about 8-10 knots.

Check out the NWS forecast for Blanca...



As of this afternoon the core of TS Blanca is already in the Southern California swell window. She has sustained winds around 40-45 knots with gusts near 60-knots in the NW and NE quadrants. As you can see the forecast has her shuffling off to the west and weakening as she hits colder water in the next couple of days.



Right now the storm has a couple of good things going for it and a couple of bad things.

On the good side...it is fairly close to SoCal...so if it does send out swell we won’t have a ton of decay eroding the energy out. Also the WNW movement is a fairly good angle for us...it isn’t directly at us but it keeps the “the intense” portion of the fetch closer to the side we want it to be on.

On the bad side, it isn’t all that intense...wind speeds aren’t great which will limit swell production. Also, she is going to hit cold water pretty quickly, which will kill the storm’s convection/rotation.

From a surf perspective I do expect a little SE swell from TS Blanca...she has good rotation, and ok winds, plus she is closer than a lot of storms get. I would look for a few chest-high+ waves at the SE facing spots, mostly in OC, around Wednesday/Thursday of this week...and if the storm can hold together (or get more intense) we could add some size to that.

Anyway that is what I have for now...I will update you if something changes.

Hurricane Andres – First hurricane of 2009

Tropical storm Andres has been upgraded to Hurricane Andres...our first hurricane of 2009.

As of right now Andres is barely hurricane strength, winds around 65-70 knots near the core, and with rather poor convection on the satellite photos. It almost seems like the NHC is stretching a bit to get this system classified as a hurricane...and forecasts are not expecting Andres to stay this strong for very long. Likely he will be downgraded back to a Tropical Storm sometime tonight or tomorrow.

Unfortunately Andres is still a ways away from our swell window...so I am not expecting any surf from him at this point. Even the extended range forecasts are not showing the storm reaching our swell window with any sort of strength. I do expect some increase in surf for the Tip of Baja and the close proximity areas of Mainland Mexico...but there is a chance for bad weather and flooding too. Wavewise it is going to be a bit of crapshoot in Baja so I don’t think it would be worth traveling for this storm...unless you are just getting out of its way.







Anyways...just thought I would give a shout out for the first hurricane of the season.