Swell Alert – Solid Storm in the South Pacific

The SPAC blew up this weekend...the storm that was in the process of setting up swell for this coming weekend went berserk…so it looks like we are going to be able add some wave-size to the swell heading to Socal/Baja and a lot MORE SIZE to the swell heading toward Central America, Southern Mainland Mexico, and host of other travel locations.



The storm by itself was pretty well organized…it was positioned well in the storm track, moving the right direction…with a bit of south-to-north movement, and it was already pretty intense (30-40 knots in a few areas)…but then a much smaller, but very warm tropical system, dumped a bunch of extra-tropical energy into the mix…and just like that wind speeds blasted up into the 50-60 knot range. Check out the WINDsat measurements from the last few days…(the big black blobs are winds getting close to hurricane strength)…











Now check out the wavewatchIII swell model…you can see the bump of overlapping energy heading our way for the end of the week.



So the timing and size of this swell is going to differ a bit from region to region…so I broke it down a bit so you guys can plan to take advantage or it better.

Central America
The region will actually have a playful, overhead SW swell in the water when this big one starts to arrive. Looks like the new SW swell (200-225) moves in late Thursday night…coming up fast on Friday and peaking overnight into Saturday. The exposed spots in this area can expect solid well-overhead to double overhead surf with some bigger double-overhead+ sets mixing it up as the swell really pops on Saturday morning. The standout deepwater spots that can really focus this swell could be in the double-triple overhead range…maybe bigger if all the pieces fall into place. NOTE: There is a little bit of swell-shadow that some of the areas have to watch out for…the Galapagos islands have a tendency to soak up a bit of the swell heading toward Costa Rica and sometimes Southern Nicaragua on one side and Northern Panama on the other. Oh it will still be good sized in those areas but it won’t see the big bombs that the directly exposed spots will.

Southern Mainland Mexico (from Puerto Vallarta South)
Southern Mainland Mexico, due to its positioning, and weird swell focusing abilities, will probably be the hardest hit (in terms of wave size)…possibly going much larger than other regions. Like Central America there will already be a playful overhead+ SW swell in the water as this new pulse starts to arrive…so if you get there early there will be plenty of surf before the bigger waves hit. The new SW swell (200-220) will move in on Friday, starting a little slow in the morning, but coming up fast through the day and then peaking overnight into Saturday. This swell looks good for nearly 10-12’ of deepwater swell…so I would at minimum be expecting the average spots to see similar sized surf as the swell moves into shallow water. The standout breaks that focus some of this energy will see 10-15’ faces as the swell peaks, and the freaky spots, like Puerto Escondido, will likely get close to 15-20’ faces on some of the bombs that sneak through. This swell will start to drop on Sunday and wind down to more survivable sizes on Monday.

Northern Mainland Mexico (from Puerto Vallarta North)
This region isn’t quite as exposed to the new SW swell as the spots further south but it too will see good sized surf as this swell hits. Look for the SW’er (195-220) to move in on Friday, starting off on the slow side for the morning, but strengthening steadily throughout the day and peaking into Saturday before fading Sunday/Monday. This region’s average exposed spots will be more in the head high to several feet overhead range with some bigger bombs showing now and then. The standout SW facing breaks will likely get near the double-overhead range as the swell peaks early on Saturday.

Southern Baja
The timing for this region is very similar to Northern Mainland Mexico and parts of the Pacific side will probably be just as big. The swell moves in throughout the day on Friday and will peak after dark holding into Saturday. Most exposed spots will be head high to a few feet overhead while the standout Pacific side breaks and top exposed Cabo/East Cape spots see a few sets hitting the double overhead mark at times.

Southern California
The swell lags about a day behind the other regions further south before it moves into Socal. Right now it looks like long-period energy will fill into the background on Friday (May 21) and then the swell will build overnight, peaking through Saturday, holding into early Sunday before backing down through the early part of next week. It will also be a bit smaller up here…with the average exposed spots running shoulder-high to overhead on most sets and a few bigger waves hitting on the lower tides. The standout SW facing spots, mostly through Orange County and San Diego, will have consistent head high and overhead+ surf with some sets going a few feet overhead on those same low-tides. NOTE: It doesn’t look like winds are going to be all that great this weekend (stupid wind!) so don’t expect perfect clean conditions in our region…hopefully this is just the weather model being a spaz, and actual winds/conditions will be much cleaner.

Northern/Central California
Yep the swell has enough punch to push North of Point Conception as well…it takes the swell about an extra ½ day to head up there but it does eventually arrive later on Saturday afternoon and then peaking overnight into Sunday. Look for consistent shoulder-overhead surf for the better SW facing spots along the North and Central Coasts with a few of the top summer areas seeing some sets going a few feet overhead. Like Socal there may be some wind/weather issues as this swell peaks…but unlike Socal most of the regions summer spots have protection from the increase in WNW-NW winds that will likely push in during the peak of the swell.


Anyway…as you can tell this swell looks pretty legit…and it isn’t in some fantasy world that the wavewatchIII model is living in…it is actually a fully formed, ass-kicking storm generating this swell. Both the WINDsat and the Jason-1 (or is it Jason-2 now?) have both recorded 50-60+ knots of wind and nearly 40-foot seas in the core of the fetch aimed our way…so cross your fingers that us Socal non-travelers get some halfway decent weather as this swell starts to arrive. I will have more detail in the daily forecast as we get closer to the weekend.

Adam Wright
Forecaster
www.socalsurf.com

Tropical Update – Hurricane Rick – Chewing bubblegum and kicking a$$

I think that Hurricane Rick may be all out of bubblegum…because he is becoming a seriously angry looking storm.

Check out the latest Satellite photo from NOAA…you don’t draw hurricanes that look this perfect…let alone see one on a satellite photo.



The National Hurricane Center confirmed that Rick’s new estimated core winds are sustained at 155- knots with gusts reaching the 190-knot range…so we are talking about 186-mph sustained winds and gusts topping out near 230-mph, which is pretty ridiculous. Hurricane Rick is definitely well into the Category 5 storm range and is expected to maintain this intensity for the next couple of days.

Man even the NHC is getting almost poetic in the description of Hurricane Rick…check out what they wrote in the latest update….classic.

HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE WORD...SPECTACULAR. THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES ONE COULD SEE THE SUNLIGHT REFLECTING OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYEWALL AND THE STADIUM EFFECT THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE HURRICANES.



At this point it looks like Rick may actually gather a little more strength over the next 12 hours and then go through what is called an “eyewall replacement/replenishment phase”, basically the storm becomes so intense that it actually sort of chokes itself off…as it does this the organized convection/spin that forms the hurricane “eye” is disrupted and the storm is forced to sort of check itself before it can gather its intensity again. Usually as this occurs we see the sustained winds take a decent drop in speeds…and it takes some time before the storm can gather its strength again. Unfortunately in this case the forecast models are also showing a change in the overall atmospheric conditions, with the introduction of some upper level sheering, at about the same time that Rick hits cooler water...which will likely speed up his destabilization and weaken the storm significantly from its current strength.

I know…I know… “That is great Adam, but how does that help me get waves”…damn you guys are impatient I was just getting to that. :)

Ok from a surf perspective…Rick is basically going to kick out some serious swell for all of the nearby areas…namely Mainland Mexico, which is so close that the affected areas are likely seeing some adverse weather possibly winds from him, and the Tip of Baja which he is traveling towards.

Since Rick has been hanging out and strengthening for the last couple of days I wouldn’t be surprised if new SE swell wasn’t already showing along the Tip of Baja…it won’t be huge yet…but the main push of swell will be arriving over the next day or so. With a storm this intense it is a little hard to gauge size…but conservatively the directly exposed areas would be consistently in the 10-15’ face range…with bigger bomb sets likely hitting 20’ (hell maybe bigger if the storm gets a good run at this Cat-5 strength). Personally I don’t think that the directly exposed spots will even be very surfable…just too much water moving around…but some of those partially exposed areas up in the Sea of Cortez both on the Baja Side, and potentially on the Mainland Mexico side (as the storm moves further west) could be a bit more survivable…not that I would ever advise anyone to go towards a Cat-5 storm.

How does this affect SoCal…at this point not much…the storm is still outside of our swell window. But, and this is sort of a big but, the forecasts are showing Rick potentially hitting the eastern edge of our swell window sometime early Monday morning…and still holding onto some of its intensity. I am not to stoked on the odds of this happening, mostly because storms have a tendency to hook back to the NE this time of year…and if the forecast run is already showing that recurve there is a good chance that it will be more defined by the time it actually happens, which means that it might not even reach our window before going back to the NE and crushing Cabo or something.

But let’s get hypothetical for a moment and say that the forecast is correct…if the storm does follow the current track, it would put it inside of our swell window for about 12-20 hours as it hooks back to the NE, still around Cat-4 strength. We get a bonus in that the storm is still very strong, has established sea-state, and is moving even more towards us (so does the Pacific Side of Baja Sur)…we get a negative for only a portion of the storm making it over the swell window shadow, and the relatively short time it would have to generate fetch/swell. So potentially we could see a new SE swell (155-165) heading our way for the 21st…likely in the head high to overhead range on the sets, and possibly bigger if the storm moves further into our swell window (or hangs in place for some reason).

So that being said…I am not putting much faith in a significant swell for Southern California at this point…most of us know that a hurricane/tropical system can pull up lame in the swell-department for all sorts of different reasons. I am however sort of cautiously optimistic that Rick can reach our swell window…and I will definitely dial in the forecast sizes/arrival times as this becomes more likely. In the meantime…I will have to continue to watch the stupid computer and see what Mr Ricky does…stupid hurricanes.

Swell Alert – Another S-SSW swell

The South Pacific, especially the part that makes up our swell window, really likes springtime. We have already had two pretty decent S swells...and I don’t know about the rest of you but I have surfed more over the last few weeks than I did almost completely through Dec-Jan.

Anyway, like I mentioned in yesterday’s forecast we have another S-SSW swell (180-200) heading our way. This swell was kicked out by a pretty decent looking system that had been trolling around the South Pacific for the last 4-5 days.

Check out what the QuikSCAT passes picked up on this storm...



And here is some Altimetry data from the JASON-1 satellite. (As always a big thanks to Mark @ stormsurf for letting me use an image now and then...please check out his site www.stormsurf.com when you get a chance...the guy is an awesome forecaster and brilliant at putting the wave/wind/satellite data into useable formats).



Thanks to all of the pretty colors you can see that the storm had cranked up the core wind speeds into the 50-knot+ range at times as well as laid down a solid area of fetch. What was even better was that this storm had a lot of pre-existing sea-state to work with, which basically means that a previous storm came through moving roughly the same direction and tore up enough of the ocean surface that the winds in this new system didn’t have to work so hard...sort of like the “shampoo-effect” if you have ever had back to back days of drinking. All of this storm action has strung together a pretty solid pulse of SSW swell that will be hitting the usual regions starting around the middle of next week.

Here are the details...

Mainland Mexico and Central America
The really long-period energy (and I am talking 20+ seconds) of the SW’er (200-220) fills in slowly on the 21st...but the peak of the swell hits late on the 22nd and holds solid through the 23rd and 24th. Look for spots in this region to see consistent overhead+ surf at the better exposed spots. Standout breaks, particularly the good deepwater spots and outer reefs, will see sets going several feet overhead to nearly double-overhead at times. Even though the swell drops after the 24th expect several days of quality surf to continue to push into the region.

Baja Sur
The S-SSW swell (180-210) hits exposed areas on the 22nd and then peaks on the 23-24th. The swell is a little more southerly for this area compared to Mainland Mexico and Central America so it hits around the same time but with less size. As the swell peaks look for consistent head high sets at the average S facing spots while the standout breaks see overhead+ sets with some waves going a 2-3’ overhead on inconsistent sets. The majority of this energy will show at those really well-exposed spots...expect the more protected points/reefs to be smaller (but still fun).

Southern California
The S-SSW’er (180-210) fills in with the long-period forerunners on the 22nd, but with most of the energy arriving through the afternoon evening. The swell comes up fast through the 23rd and eventually peaks late that Thursday...holding through Friday and Saturday (the 24-25th) before dropping. In our region this swell looks good for shoulder-head high surf for the average S facing spots. The standout S-facing summer spots, mostly through Orange County (but in a few of the other regions too), will have more consistent head high and overhead surf with sets going 1-2’ overhead during the best conditions.

Hope you guys get a few good ones out of this swell.

Swell Alert: S-swell for early next week (better conditions too!)

So a few days ago I mentioned a S swell that was going to be hitting early next week...then I got so freaking busy that I didn’t have time to get into the details. Anyway I am a giant swell-tease...but I am back to deliver.

We are going to see another good shot of S swell (180-190) heading towards California and Baja...which will also hit Mainland Mexico and Central America from more of a SSW-SW’erly (200-220) swell direction.

The storm that kicked out this S-SW swell (depending on where you are) actually spun up over last weekend. It wasn’t super strong, winds held consistently around 30-40 knots with some stronger gusts, but it had a number of good things going for it.

1. It was well positioned in our swell window
2. It moved closer than most storms get (the fetch actually pushed north of 30-south latitude)
3. It moved directly towards California/Baja (and Mexico/Central America)
4. It had a long lifespan (there were still some remnants of fetch holding together as of yesterday)
5. I heard Chuck Norris started it by kung-fu chopping a great white shark off the coast of Australia

In any case it looks like we should have some good S-SW swell arriving through the early part of next week.



Here are the details for each of the regions...

Mainland Mexico and Central America
The swell will hit Mexico/Central America on Saturday and peak Sunday-Monday before very slowly fading through the middle of next week. Look for consistent overhead surf through the region with some of the deepwater spots like Puerto Escondido seeing double overhead sizes.

Baja Sur
For Baja Sur we can expect the S swell to arrive at similar times...so the first part of the energy arrives on Saturday and the peak of the swell hits Sunday and Monday. It will be a bit smaller for this region...look for consistent shoulder-head high surf for the average S facing spots while the standouts see overhead waves with some sets going 1-2’ overhead at times.

Southern California and Baja Norte
Southern California will see the swell arrive on Sunday, with the peak of the swell arriving Monday and Tuesday. Locally the weather over the weekend for SoCal is going to be a bit crappy...but conditions start to improve about the same time the swell fills in. It also looks like we are going to see a decent WNW swell (290-300) arriving about the same time...(man I love combo swells!)...it won’t be a big WNW’er but it should help break up the S swell. Sizewise we can expect surf in the chest-head high range for most of the S facing spots. Standout S facing areas, particularly regions like Orange County, will have overhead sets. The swell will eventually start to fade on Wednesday...but expect it to continue to send in some rideable sizes through the end of the week.

Overall for SoCal it isn't going to be a huge swell...but there will be plenty of waves for most of the exposed spots, and the swell should have some legs...so, (weather permitting), we will get a few days of fun surf.

Travel Update: Another SW’er for Central America and Mainland Mex

I was just looking at the SPAC charts and there is another string of SW swells (190-220), with one bigger pulse of SW right in the middle, heading to Central America and Mainland Mexico.

These swells start arriving in the area around the 9th…with one swell peaking on the 11-12th and another peaking on the 13-14th.

The first swell is already in the water…you can see the fetch nice and clear on the quikSCAT…



The second and third swells are forming over the next 48-72 hours, and I have seen them on the charts for a few days so I think they are fairly credible at this point. Check ‘em out on the Wavewatch-III swell period graphic.



Sizewise…the first pulse that arrives on the 9th looks good for chest-head high waves for most of the average areas…a few of the standouts will have some bigger sets but it won’t be huge or anything. Just a fun, warm water, early season swell.

The second and third swells (which really blend into a single big pulse of SW swell) start arriving on the 11th…but really peak more from the 12-14th and then trail off very slowly after that. These swells look good for consistent head high to overhead surf for most of the average spots. The top spots will have sets going a couple of feet overhead on the biggest waves…and the deepwater spots, like Puerto, will see some sets nearing double overhead (but probably not quite getting there).

Socal will see much, much, smaller versions of these swells arriving on the 11th and then again on the 14-16th. It will be closer to chest-shoulder high at the average spots around Socal…with some bigger waves showing in OC and parts of San Diego. Also if you look at the swell-period chart again…it looks like a little long-period WNW will be showing around that time too. So there is a chance at some playful waves…much smaller, colder, and less consistent playful waves…for those of us that can’t make the trip.

Hope some of you can sneak away…as always I love to see pictures and get reports if you do head down that way.

Random Travel Update – Mexico and Central America

I don’t know about you but I am pretty over the cold water and this mostly dismal winter. Yeah there have been a couple of swells here and there, but nothing that has been particularly noteworthy.

I have been starting to keep my eye on the South Pacific, which generally starts to get a more energetic over the next couple of months. I haven’t seen anything lining up for Socal (besides a couple of weak pulses of swell)…but I have been watching some fetch that has a bigger shot of SW swell heading toward Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America.

Now this isn’t the best swell in the world…it really isn’t that big at all…but the water will be warm, winds will be pretty decent, and it certainly will beat the hell out of surfing chilly waist-chest high stormy slop like we have been seeing.

You can actually see the storm right now on the QuikSCAT…



This is actually the second portion of the storm…there was a stronger front that rolled through setting up some nice sea-state for this fetch to work with. Like I said it isn’t super strong…most of the winds hold around 30-35 knots...but the fetch is pretty wide, it moves along the great-circle patch (so it is moving towards the region), and the pre-existing sea-state helps out as well.

This is the swell on the WWIII model…



At this point it looks like the SW swell (205-225) will start to arrive with some longer-period, 18 second, energy late on Feb 27th…and then peak late on the 28th and into March 1st before it fades out through the remainder of next week. There are a couple more storms forecast to run around down there, nothing great, but enough to keep wave heights from dropping too fast after this pulse starts to back down

This incoming swell looks like it will be a consistent chest-head high swell for most of the decent SW facing spots through the Southern Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America region. A few of the deepwater spots may see some overhead sets as it peaks.

Like I said…not huge…but it does sound a lot more fun than what we have around here. Hope some of you guys can sneak away…if anyone does get down there make sure to send me a couple of pics so that I can curl up into a ball of hypothermic jealousy.

Something brewing in the South Pacific - Waves on the way

So after watching the storm, and the swell it produced, for the last couple of days it looks like things are on track for a pretty decent run of swell throughout Central America, Mainland Mexico, Baja Mexico, and Southern California.

I revised the forecast a little from the one I issued a couple of days ago...not much size-wise but just a little on the timing.

Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico will be the biggest...look for easy well-overhead surf for most exposed areas. Top spots will go double-overhead and bigger as the swell peaks on the 18-19th. Deepwater breaks like Puerto Escondido will be even bigger, probably triple-overhead+ on the sets.

Northern Mainland Mexico will see the size drop off a bit...just due to the more southerly angle of the swell. Look for most spots in that area to see consistent surf in the head high to a couple of feet overhead range. Standout S facing spots will have sets going a few feet overhead as the swell peaks late on the 18 and into the 19th.

Baja Sur will see the swell move in and peak on the 19-20th...with the tip peaking a little earlier. Most spots will be running in the shoulder-overhead range as the swell starts really working. Standout spots, particularly breaks near the Tip, will have sets going a few feet overhead and a little bigger at the swell's peak.

Southern California and Baja Norte will have long-period energy from this S swell (170-190) showing late on Friday the 18th...this will build overnight and through Saturday, eventually peaking Saturday afternoon through Sunday, then slowly fading out on Monday. At this point we can expect the average S facing spots to see shoulder-head high+ surf while the standout S facing areas, particularly in North Orange County, see some overhead+ sets as the swell peaks. To top it off there will be some tropical energy still lingering around as leftovers from Elida slowly fade away...this energy should help to fill in the consistency gaps and put a lot of waves into the exposed areas throughout the weekend.

Make sure to check back...I will be talking about the swell some more in the Daily Update as we get closer...or I might bail to Mexico and leave you hanging...it is about 50/50 right now (just kidding...well sort of).

Here are some links to the previous posts

Post 1
Post 2

Something Brewing in the South Pacific - Part 2

Things are still looking pretty good for this newly forming storm that is going to be sending some large S-SW surf for South America and Central America...and some decent sized waves for Mexico, Baja, and Southern California

The storm has actually just started the key portion of its development, where the colder low-pressure near Antarctica mixes with a warm/wet low-pressure from the mid-latitudes. Over the next couple of days the latent-heat energy of the warm air will be released as it cools in the colder low-pressure...this will help to supercharge wind speeds...and hopefully mean that we will get bigger surf down the road.

Here is a chart that shows a lot of it happening.




Here is a shot from the Quikscat satellite showing increasing wind speeds in the good part of the storms core.



And finally here is a shot of the WWIII swell model, which is showing the dominant swell period...as you can see it has the new S-SW swell moving into Central America and Southern Mexico on the 18th, and that it will start showing in Baja on the 19th and finally arrive in SoCal on the 20th.



The storm still has some developing to do before we get concrete wave heights for SoCal but at this point it does look like the S facing spots will be around head high while the standout S facing standouts see some overhead sets, which sounds good to me after all of the flatness we have see over the last few days.

Here is a link to the old post if you haven't read it already

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2008/07/something-brewing-in-south-pacifichmmm.html

Something brewing in the South Pacific…(hmmm anyone feel like a Mexico/Central America/South America surf trip.)

While I am not quite ready to issue a swell alert for this storm I am definitely keeping a close eye on it as it develops.

Check out this animation and you can see what I mean (you may have to refresh the page to get the .gif to start playing from the beginning.)



As you can see there is a tight little nugget of a storm brewing up in the upper latitudes of the SPAC right near the Antarctic ice…what is really interesting is that the forecasts are showing the storm making a very solid shift from the upper to the mid-latitudes and that a lot of this movement is being powered by an infusion of warmer air/water-vapor that is being pushed down from tropical waters. It looks like this warmer air-mass is going to help supercharge the colder storm making it way more intense than it would have been on its own.

Forecasts are showing a great movement track for this storm…moving across the latitudes gives it a lot of extra time to generate waves and lines up a lot intense fetch for South America and Central America.

Also because of its movement the backside of the storm, that is being pushed by a ridge of high-pressure to the west, lines up fetch for Mainland Mexico, Baja Mexico, and Southern California. Check out this chart and you can see what I mean.



At first glance…and I will likely revise this as the storm actually forms in the next 3-4 days…this is what I see for each region.

South America is definitely going to be the biggest out of all of the areas affected by this swell…looks like Chile could be a little wet and wild as the storm itself pushes over about they same time the swell does. Peru looks like it could be a pretty good call if you are looking for some serious sized surf.

Central America will also get a good dose of swell…there may be a bit of blockage from the Galapagos Islands for the southern areas (Panama and Southern Costa Rica) but even the more shadowed spots will see consistent well-overhead+ surf from this one.

Mainland Mexico will also be well exposed to this swell…the further south you are the bigger it will be…expect to lose a lot of size as you move up the coast towards Baja.

Baja and SoCal will both likely see some decent sized surf from this storm as well but it is still a little spotty on exactly how much energy it will be able to send our way before it shifts out of our swell window. At this point I am expecting the swell to arrive in Southern Baja around the 19-20th and more on the 20-21st for SoCal.

Making Travel Plans

This storm has been a pretty consistent feature in the forecast for the last several days…so I am inclined to say that this may be a good time to roll the dice on a trip to Central America or Peru. The swell isn’t 100% locked in at this point but I think the odds are good that it will pull together over the next few days. If you are thinking about making travel plans to those areas I would try and give yourself a little fudge room on your dates…try get to Peru by the 15th and to Central America by the 16-17th...and then plan on the swell arriving a day or so after you get to your spots.

Travel Swell Alert: Another large SW swell heading to Central America and Mainland Mexico

We have got another strong storm brewing down near New Zealand that is looking to send a hefty SW swell to Central America and Mainland Mexico later this month.

California and Baja Mexico will also see some waves from this one but they will be quite a bit smaller.

Short-range forecasts are expecting this storm to be a beast...NOAA's WavewatchIII is predicting nearly 40-50' seas in the core of this system. Here check out this image from the swell model.



You can check out the animated version of this here

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nww3_pa.anim.gif


Here is a shot of the swell (in swell period form) about 6+ days from this post.




As you can see it sent a pretty solid blast of energy towards Tahiti and then on to Central America and Mainland Mexico. You can also see the South Pacific Island shadowing that occurs on SW swells (it is always sad to see that gap in the swell line up perfectly with SoCal...damn islands).

Here is the animation run for the swell period...you can watch the swell move across the pacific.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nww3_pa.anim.2.gif

If you look close you can actually see that the bigger swell isn't the only one in the water...there are actually a couple of other SW swells that have been kicked out. This is great from a travel perspective...it means that you aren't putting all your eggs in one basket...so you will have a good chance to score a longer run of waves.


Ok enough about the storm here are the arrival times and details on the swell.

Central America and Mainland Mexico - Since the swell is pretty SW in swell direction (210-225) it is actually going to both regions about the same time. There is another smaller SW swell coming in from the same direction that arrives on June 6th and holds around for a couple of days. This first one looks good for head high and overhead surf at the standout breaks maybe even a few bigger sets at top spots. The bigger swell hits on June 9-10th with surf in the overhead to well-overhead range for most areas while the standouts, mostly in Southern Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America see double-overhead+ sets. Spots light Puerto Escondido will probably go bigger than that as well. There will be some shadowing for Costa Rica and Panama from the Galapagos islands...so expect smaller surf in those countries. One other thing to keep in mind is the weather...TS Alma just got done douching the area with rain...it may not be very easy to travel to the more remote spots.

Baja Sur - The first SW'er (205-220) hits Baja Sur around 7th and sets up some shoulder-head high surf for the standout breaks on the Pacific Side...the Tip/East Cape may be a bit shadowed so expect smaller less consistent surf through that area. The second, bigger, SW swell peaks on the 10-11th with more shoulder-head high+ surf for the average spots and inconsistent overhead+ sets at the standout breaks. If you head down this way try and keep in mind that while there will be decent waves in this area it will lack a lot of consistency...especially compared to a swell coming in from a more southerly swell direction. So plan on it being fun...but not all-time.

Southern California and Baja Norte - Socal will have the first SW'er (200-220) limp in around the 7-8th...not the greatest swell for SoCal but it will put some chest-shoulder high sets at the top breaks in South OC and San Diego. The second, larger SW'er hits on the 11th with average spots building into the chest high+ range while the standouts, again in San Diego and South Orange County, see shoulder-head high sets. (I am being a bit conservative...there may be a bigger set sneaking though at times).

Nor/Central California – It actually hits about the same time as SoCal so you would be seeing the first swell on the 7-8th and the peak of the larger swell around the 11th. This one should be good for some head high sets at the standout SW facing spots…and you won’t suffer as much inconsistency as SoCal.

Anyway that is what I got for now...we still have enough lead time to get a cheaper plane ticket (if you get on it in the next day or so.) As usual if you head out of town make sure to send me some pictures and let me know how it was.

Another Fatal Shark Attack in Ixtapa Mexico

I know I am a couple of days behind but I just caught this story on the interweb and thought I would pass it along in case some of you missed it.

According to news sources there have actually been 2 new shark attacks, one of them fatal, down around Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo coastline in Mainland Mexico.

If you remember Adrian Ruiz a surfer from San Francisco bleed to death from a shark attack while surfing the nearby area of Troncones Beach in April.

These latest attacks were reported at a beach called Pantla and at Playa Linda beach.

At Pantla Beach, Osvaldo Mata, was reported to have been mauled by a large 6' shark which bit off his hand and gouged his thigh. Apparently his brave friends paddled over and helped him to shore but he died of his wounds before medics arrived.

You can read more about the fatal attack here
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2430753720080524


The second attack, which occurred a couple of days later at Playa Linda, was on Texan Bruce Grimes. According to the news article the shark gave him a quick swim-by and then snagged his arm as he was trying to get back to the beach. After a bit of a struggle Grimes apparently was able get away from the shark and make his way to shore and eventually drive to medical help where he ending up with something close to 100 stitches. (Got to give the man credit for keeping his shit together enough to get to help.)

You can read more about the attack at Playa Linda Here http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN26346680


Man this is crazy...it really seems like 2008 has been a horrible year for shark attacks both domestically and internationally. (If some of you have seen a story about year to year frequency of shark attacks forward it on).

I love animals and nature as much as the next guy (if not more) but I am definitely starting to have issues with humans getting pushed back into the food chain.

S Swell Alert: UPDATE – Lots o south swell heading to Central America

Hey gang I was just checking up on that incoming S swell that will be arriving this upcoming weekend and things are still looking good.

Like I mentioned in the first post (click here to read the first one) the majority of this energy is heading towards Central America and Mainland Mexico…but Baja Mexico and Southern California are going to see some playful sized waves from this one as well.

Rather than retype all of the previous alert I through it in a picture this time. (The chart is actually the NOAA wavewatchIII peak-wave period forecast showing what will be happening late on May 10th. The giant red-orange blog eating Central America is the S swell. Click on the picture to get a bigger view.



In case you want to see what I wrote about this swell last week…

Previous Posts

S Swell Alert - New S swell brewing up around Antarctica

S Swell Alert - New S swell brewing up around Antarctica

So I got some good news and some bad news.

The good news is that a well positioned storm has spun up just off the coast of Antarctica. The storm has some decent wind speeds, a wide area of fetch, and is moving in a good direction. This system will be kicking out a large S-SW swell for Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico while at the same time sending some healthy, but more playful sized, surf to Baja and Southern California.

The Bad news is that the swell will hit over Mother's Day weekend. So unless your mom rips chances are you won't get to travel to score some waves on this swell.

Here are a few charts that highlight this storm and incoming swell...





There are a couple of things to note about this storm...from a positioning standpoint the core of this storm is almost out of the SoCal window...not quite but right on the edge for many of the SoCal regions...fortunately the fetch is pretty wide so edges of the swell direction will be a little "fuzzy". If it had moved a touch further eastward the swell would have been going back against the grain of the storm track and would have had a really hard time making it to SoCal.

Also this swell won't have to squeeze through the South Pacific islands which is an extra-bonus for socal. With a cleaner shot at SoCal we will actually see a bit more size and consistency from this one than we would from a more SW'erly angled swell.

So onto the swell details...

Central America and Southern Mainland Mexico
The main push of the swell is definitely aimed towards Central America...and due to the position of the storm it will last for several days after it peaks.

At this point expect the new SW swell (it has more of a 200-degree swell direction in this region) to hit late on May 8th, build fast through the morning of the 9th, and then peak in the afternoon of May 9th into the 10-11th. Look for surf running well overhead through the 9th with sets starting to hit double-overhead+ at the standout spots by the afternoon. Those waves will hold through the weekend before slowly trailing off through the first part of the next week.

(Please note that Southern Mainland Mexico is about 1/2-3/4 of a day behind on arrival times so the peak of the swell still hits on the 10-11th but shows less energy on the 9th).

Baja Sur
The S swell arrives in baja Sur late on the 9th, builds through the day on the 10th and peaks more in the afternoon of the 10th into the 11th. It will be a bit smaller through this region...so look for plenty of shoulder-head high sets at exposed breaks and overhead+ sets at the standouts along the Tip. Expect slightly smaller surf the further north you move along the Pacific side.

Southern California
SoCal will have a smaller, but still fun version of this S swell (180). This swell will arrive later on the 10th and will fill in more overnight eventually peaking exactly on Mother's Day (May 11th) and holding into the 12th. At this point we can expect chest-shoulder high surf for most of the exposed areas in SoCal. Orange County, in particular North Orange County, will have some head high+ sets at the top breaks.


This one is still a long ways off so you should have time to get your Mom the gift she really needs...A family vacation to Costa Rica! (yeah...good luck with that).

Make sure to check back I will have more updates on this swell as it gets closer. As always if you get some good pictures of this swell send them my way.

Shark Attack! – Ixtapa, Mainland Mexico

Please don’t take this the wrong way…first and foremost my heart goes out to this surfers family and friends. I am a father, brother, and family man first and foremost so this is not me being flippant…

…but seriously you have to be f-ing kidding me!...two fatal shark attacks within a week! This is a freaking nightmare.

If you are reading this for the first time here are the details…according to news reports another surfer, Adrian Ruiz from San Francisco, died from wounds suffered during a shark attack. The attack occurred along the coast of Mainland Mexico…close to the Ixtapa area…specifically 45 minutes west at an area called Troncones beach.

Here are links to the stories if you need more details…

This is part of the story on MSNBC

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24377174/

Here is the link to the story on Surfline

http://www.surfline.com/surfnews/article_bamp.cfm?id=15109

Another SW swell Alert: Another good shot of SW swell on the way

Yep that is right…another round of SW swell is being kicked out from the Southern Hemi. It will be sending another pulse of overhead to well-overhead surf to Central America and Mainland Mexico.

Baja Sur will have a smaller but still very fun pulse of SW energy.

Southern California, on the other hand, will once again get the shaft by the South Pacific Island shadow. Sure we will get a few waves but it will be quite a bit weaker and less consistent than other areas.

I was checkout out this storm today trying to get a read on the wave heights and noticed that at first glance it had a lot of characteristics of the last Southern Hemi storm that kicked out a big SW swell. (You can see how well that swell hit Mainland Mexico, and Hawaii)

Looking closer there are some pretty big differences…here check it out

These next 2 QUIKSCAT images are from the current storm…





While this next series is from the last one…



First off you note that the new storm is not nearly as strong as the last one…it is still healthy but it doesn’t have that “eye of mordor” black hole in the core of the storm…(its core is more like an angry purple). Just because it is lacking wind speeds doesn’t mean that it will be too much smaller surfwise. It does have a few other things that the first storm didn’t.

It has a longer, more established fetch…in fact it is moving over an area that had what we call “an established sea state” which happens to be already pointed in a good general direction…so the storm doesn’t have to waste energy trying to produce the sea-state needed to generate swell…it just hops on the work another cold-front and starts kicking out waves tag-team style. The fetch is also a bit wider which only adds to the energy it will impart to the swell

Finally this storm looks like it has a better movement track…particularly for Mainland Mex and Central America…it is moving more towards those areas than slightly “against the grain” like the last system did.

What does all this mean? Well basically I think that even though the storm wasn’t as strong as the first one it did have enough other positive factors to produce a swell very close to what we saw with the last swell.

So on to the Surf…

Mainland Mexico and Central America will see this swell start to arrive on the 29th…with the peak of the swell hitting late on the 30th and then holding strong through May 1-3rd. Look for surf consistently in the head-high to well overhead range for the average exposed breaks. Standout deepwater spots, particularly those in Mainland Mexico (Like Puerto Escondido) will have sets hitting around the double-overhead range.

Baja Sur sees less of the swell but still plenty of playful waves. Look for this swell to arrive more on the 30th but peak May 1-3. As the swell peaks most spots will hold around shoulder-high+ on the sets while the standout spots see overhead sets.

Southern California and Baja Norte will see shadowing by the South Pacific Islands along with some potential wind problems as strong NW flow moves into the area the same time as the swell. Look for the swell to start showing late on the 30th, fill in slowly on May 1st and then peak May 2-3. Look for mostly waist-chest high waves for the exposed areas and some shoulder high+ waves at the standouts, which will be mostly in Northern San Diego and Southern Orange County.

That is about all I got for this swell…I wish it had a better swell-angle for SoCal but you can’t win them all. There are a couple of decent storms way under Australia right now…so it will be interesting to see what they do once they reach the South Pacific…I am sure I will be filling you in on them later.

Random SW Swell Alert: RECAP

Hey gang...I got a great email yesterday from a guy that shot down to Mainland Mexico for a surgical strike on that last SW swell

Not only did the guy freaking score he also managed to shoot some sick photos and kept his head enough to take notes on the swell activity. (Always make sure to take notes people...you can reverse engineer the forecast so that you can score the same place again!)

First check out these photos





And here is the breakdown of his trip...I wish I had been there (not staring at this stupid computer).

Thursday evening – fun 90 minute session at Manzanillo Bay with sets going a foot or two OH

Friday a.m. – Boat to the Ranch (same captain we had – Ramon)… sets going 3+ feet OH and super clean…. Manageable crowd. Also surfed for 2 hours solo at “A-frames”, a spot just 5 minutes past the Ranch. 4 hour session.

Friday p.m. – Arrive at Nexpa to find the Mexican National Surf Championships in progress. Make the call to drive another 2-1/2 hours to Ticla. Surf huge sketchy reef on way up.

Saturday – Mind blowing Ticla. Clean all day. Sets going DOH. No crowd. 250+ yard rippable lefts…. Just an insane wave.

Sunday – See above with slightly smaller sets.

Monday – 5 hour session at the Ranch and A-frames. Sets still a couple feet OH.

...the lucky dog.

If you are interested in checking out the original forecast post here it is...

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2008/04/random-sw-swell-alert-south-pacific-is.html

Random SW Swell Alert – UPDATE! (the good and the bad)

Well I have some good news and some bad news.

First the good news…the SW swell is still in the water heading towards all the areas that I outlined in the first post (Baja, Mainland Mex, Northern Central America, Hawaii, and California). The timing is still correct and for the most part the wave heights are going to be right on…well except in one area.

That is the bad news. Southern California is going to get a pretty good dose of swell shadowing thanks to the South Pacific islands (read more about swell shadowing here).

You can see a great example of the swell shadow on last nights WavewatchIII swell period chart.




Now that I have confirmation on the shadowing I am going to revise the wave heights for Socal.

Here is the revised SoCal forecast…

Southern California – The SW swell moves in on the 20th, actually following a small playful one that hits around the 17-18th. This new SW’er (200-220) ends up peaking on the 21st and into the 22nd. Due to shadowing from the South Pacific it won’t be as big or consistent as the other regions. We can still expect the average breaks to be around knee-waist high+. Standout spots, mostly in North San Diego and Southern Orange County, will have some bigger but inconsistent shoulder high+ sets.

It is a drag to have scale down the swell for SoCal…it had some decent potential (and I was looking forward to some waves)…oh well can’t win them all.

Like I said above, the swell is still looking good for every other region so if you are traveling and need info on the sizes, swell directions, and arrival times, you can check out the original post here.

Post #1 - Random SW Swell Alert – The South Pacific is heating up!

Random SW Swell Alert – The South Pacific is heating up!

We have a new storm setting up an overhead+ SW swell for Baja, Mainland Mexico, and Northern Central America. (After it smacks Tahiti along the way naturally). The same storm will be sending a smaller, but still healthy, version of the SW swell to Hawaii and California.

(if you just want the swell details…skip this next part…seriously if you don’t you will just get pissed at my rambling)

After a couple week hiatus it looks like the South Pacific is finally starting to get its act together. It has been a slow couple of weeks so it will be nice to have some more juice showing out in the line-up. This last gap between storms (translation total lack of significant Southern Hemi swell) that we have just had is actually fairly normal for the SPAC.

When you look at the big picture you start to see that most of the storm/wind/wave energy in the Southern Ocean (the band of ocean that circulates around Antarctica) moves in a west-to-east pattern…forecasters generally refer to this a “zonal flow”. Unfortunately we need a storm that breaks out of the zonal pattern, trying to change its latitude, and in the process sets up fetch that is aimed toward our regions. This happens quite a bit but not always in a location that is ideal for sending us surf (like on the other side of Australia, or up next to South America).

A sort of dumb analogy for the process is to picture the South Pacific as a pot of boiling water with the storms being the bubbles that boil to the surface…but only way cooler because when a bubble forms in the right spot it sends us a good swell.

Anyway there are a couple of triggers that cause these “bubble” storms to form…and they almost always involve some sort of energy transfer from a warm-weather area to a cold-weather area. A particularly violent example of this is when you get warm tropical moisture that moves into the cooler upper-latitudes. This process is generally called a tropical based storm (or air-mass) going “extra-tropical”. I could totally bore you with the physics behind latent-heat energy in water…but then my brain would hurt all weekend…so just trust me when I say that there is a lot of energy in tropical moisture…and as the air-mass carrying it cools that energy needs to go somewhere. And it does…usually in the form of strong winds in a bad-ass storm.

I can already hear you out there…”gee Adam that is great but tell us about the swell already weather-nerd!”

Hahaha…jerks. I actually wanted to bring the process to your attention because it is just this “extra-tropical” process that is setting up this next swell.

Here I made a cool chart!



On the chart you can actually see two low-pressures. One is a tropical system and the other a colder mid-latitude low. If you follow the numbers you see the tropical system take a slow dive towards Antarctica…and in the process it expels a ton of energy as it cools. This energy tries to spread out but instead is gathered in by the following storm system.

By slide #5 the cold storm, which is moving in a great direction for all of our surf spots, has jumped in intensity, likely it would have had about 30-40 knots of wind in the core but now, thanks to being jumpstarted by the extra-tropical system, it is seeing winds closer to 60-65 knots (which is the lower end of the wind speeds in the CAT1 Hurricane category). Basically the storm has jumped from being an average to below average swell maker to a good-swell producer.

To cap it off the cold storm continues to push the good area of fetch into the lower latitudes and sort of seals the deal on the swell energy heading towards Mainland Mexico. Anyway…just thought I would share some of the mechanics behind this next swell.

OK Finally the swell details (the hungover may continue reading now)

Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America – There is actually plenty of smaller swells sending in surf to this region right now. So if you are down there or planning on going down there you will have some fun-sized overhead surf while you are waiting for the bigger SW’er to arrive. This swell that I was just talking about will actually start to arrive with long-period energy on the 19th and then peak on the 20-21st. Most breaks will build into the shoulder-overhead+ range with sets going 2-3’ overhead+ at times. Deepwater breaks will be closer to double-overhead on the big sets.

Baja Sur Mexico – The SW swell (210-220) is actually pretty westerly in swell angle so it hits Baja Sur about the same time it moves into Mainland Mex. Most pacific side spots will see this swell start to hit later on the 19th…but it really fills in more on the 20th and eventually peaks into the 21st. Look for lots of shoulder-head high waves at the well exposed areas. Standout spots will have some bigger sets...but expect some inconsistency at times.

Southern California – The SW swell moves in on the 20th, actually following a small playful one that hits around the 17-18th. This new bigger SW’er (200-220) ends up peaking on the 21st and into the 22nd. Due to a little shadowing from the South Pacific it won’t be as big or consistent as the other regions. We can still expect the average breaks to be around waist-shoulder high. Standout spots, mostly in North San Diego and Southern Orange County, will have some bigger head high+ sets at times. NOTE: The forecast for SOCAL has be REVISED...please see this post for the more current details.

Hawaii – There is a good portion of fetch heading toward the islands…so we will actually see decent sized S swell arrive on the South Shores around the 16th…and eventually peaking on the 17-18th. This one looks good for shoulder-overhead faces with sets going 1-2’+ overhead as the swell peaks at the top breaks.

As usual I will give some updates on this swell as it gets closer…particularly if size or timing needs adjusting…so check back for more details.

SW Swell Alert – UPDATE 2! (Update Dos!)

I was just giving the forecast maps a quick once over this afternoon and thought I would give a shout out on this SW’er that we have coming in this week.

Things are still looking solid. As I said in previous posts Mainland Mex and Northern Central America will be the biggest but most of Central America, Baja, and California will have some consistently overhead (and overhead+) surf from this one too.

For the most part California is looking good…but we may have some wind problems starting to develop as the swell starts to hit…particularly in the afternoons (what a shocker!). It is not enough to worry about at this point but something to keep in mind as you plan your surf sessions for later in the week.

SoCal (and most of the other areas as well) are actually going to get back to back swells this week. The first one is already starting to arrive for many of the Central America regions. Mexico, Baja, and SoCal will have it fill in more on Tuesday/Wednesday. This one should be playful but will definitely lack in size compared to the swell later in the week. I will have more “specific” details for SoCal in normal update in a couple of hours.

Finally one last look at the ultra long-range and it looks like we could actually see another good-sized SW swell heading our way for the first week of April…man I hope that we aren’t using up all of our S-SW swells early in the season…it would be nice to have a few of these roll through when the water is warm enough to trunk it.

If you need wave heights and arrival times make sure to read my previous posts

Post #1 - SW Swell Alert: More SW swell heading to California, Baja, Mainland Mexico, and Central America

Post #2 - SW Swell Alert: UPDATE – Still looking good...lots of SW swell on the way

SW Swell Alert: UPDATE – Still looking good...lots of SW swell on the way

I was just going over all of the forecast data and satellite information (so you don’t have too…you slackers!).

Anyway it is still looking good…no real adjustments to make to the forecast at this point. It is still looking very sizeable for Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America…and Baja and SoCal will be going overhead as it peaks in those regions as well.

Check out the first Swell Alert for details on swell arrival times and sizes for each region.

Post #1 - SW Swell Alert: More SW swell heading to California, Baja, Mainland Mexico, and Central America