Tuesday’s Surf – SW swell and negative low-tide drainers

Tuesday will be surfable…but watch out for the negative low tide that drains out a lot of the surf through the morning.

Our surf will be a mix of holding SW swell (190-215) and some background WNW-NW windswell. The SW swell is a bit inconsistent but fun at the exposed spots…just expect some waiting between the sets…and look for the SW’er to start to wind down by the afternoon.



Average SW facing spots and the better combo breaks will be in the waist-chest high range on Tuesday. The standout SW facing spots, mostly in Orange County, will have some chest-shoulder high waves with some inconsistent head high sets (possibly getting a little bigger as the tides even out a bit).

Winds look ok, not great…but not hurting us too much either. We will have a slight eddy on Tuesday but it looks like light/variable to light S winds for most spots in the morning…in general winds will be below 5 knots, with the cleanest conditions in LA/Ventura and some slight texture to OC and SD. Look for building W-WNW winds hitting 10-15 knots by the afternoon.



Tuesday looks like a decent surf day, nothing too special, but rideable wit light winds and water that continues to warm up. Like a lot of you noticed the negative low-tide did not do us any favors on Monday (I should have called out that low-tide better in my Monday update)…and I expect that to be the case again on Tuesday. If you have to surf super early you are going to want to stick with SW facing spots that really like/need the low-tide to work…anywhere else is going to be too small or too drained out to be much fun. I still think the points/reefs will be the most fun on this SW swell…but with the windwell coming up a touch there may be a few more corners at the combo spots.

06/15/2010 Tuesday
06:28AM LDT -1.1 L (sucky!)
01:03PM LDT 3.8 H
05:56PM LDT 2.2 L
11:50PM LDT 5.7 H

Waves for Wednesday – a little more juice

Wednesday will be a surf day…though we still have to power through the midmorning high tide swamp.

In the water we are going to see a mix of slowly fading SW swell (200-220), some building NW energy (290-300), and some small local windswell that is hanging in the background.



The average spots are going to hold around waist-chest high on most sets coming through…it will be primarily the NW swell mix so look for the most consistent surf at spots with exposure to that direction. The SW facing spots will be less consistent, but about the same size on the sets. Standout breaks, mostly the top NW/SW spots and the best combo spots, will be in the chest-shoulder high range on sets with a few bigger head high sets on the lower tides.

Winds look good…mostly light offshore through the morning, with a couple of pockets of variable direction texture. There is a chance for some morning fog again…very patchy like the last time…but it may whip up a little bump if it settles on your region. Afternoon winds are supposed to be mellow…but look for building onshore bump for the most exposed areas as winds pick up a bit out of the NW by mid-afternoon.



It won’t be great tomorrow…but the mix of swells, one of which will be fairly consistent, and the nice conditions will make a good case to at least paddle around a bit. The tides will be a bit problematic but even with the extra water there are still a few corners to find. I think that your best bet is going to be the good combo spots during the dawn patrol…with the best shape at the beach breaks that can handle a bit of tide…though the points/reefs will be an ok fallback.

Here are the tides…hope you get some humpday love.

04:36AM LDT 2.4 L
10:49AM LDT 5.7 H
06:28PM LDT 0.1 L

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/17/2009

Forecast Overview
Looks like a surf weekend coming up…we will have a mix of new NW and SSW swell pulsing in over the next couple of days mixing with decent morning tides and light winds. More playful sized combo swell (and more clean conditions) will be on tap for most of next week as well.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Friday
New NW swell (290-300) moves into SoCal and overlaps the playful NW pulse that we are already seeing. The new energy will show mostly in Ventura/LA for the morning but will trickle down to OC and San Diego as we move throughout the day. This blend of NW’ers will be mixing with some S-SW energy (190-220), and some background tropical energy. Most NW facing spots and SW combo breaks will hold around waist-chest high on the sets. The standout NW facing spots and excellent combo breaks will be around waist-shoulder high with some bigger sets mixing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Conditions look clean for the morning with mostly light/variable to light offshore flow. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.

Saturday
The NW swell (290-300) will hold while a new SSW swell (180-200) moves in later in the afternoon. Wave heights will generally be the same as Friday but we will lose a touch of size at the NW facing spots while the S facing breaks get a little energy. Basically it is a win for the combo breaks. Expect the average spots to hold in the waist-chest high range while the standout NW breaks and good combo spots see some waist-shoulder high surf and some shoulder high+ sets at times. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions continue…mostly light and variable for the morning. WNW winds around 10-14 knots move in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The NW’er backs off a touch more but the S-SSW swell (180-200) starts to peak. Look for more waist-chest high+ surf at the better S facing breaks, particularly ones that can pull in a bit of the leftover NW’er. Top combo spots will be more in the waist-shoulder high range. Winds/Weather: Winds continue to look good…mostly light and variable to even light offshore for the morning…and just moderate NW winds (10-12 knots) by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The North Pacific is continuing to pick up steam. Of course it hasn’t cranked up to full winter strength but it has been able to roll out a series of playful sized WNW-NW swells that have blended nicely with some playful Southern Hemi swells.

The trend of decent Fall-sized NW swells will continue as we move through the weekend and into next week. New NW energy starts to arrive on Friday and will peak overnight into Saturday before fading slowly on Sunday, (get the size/direction details in the short-range section). The swell sort of stabilizes in the knee-chest high range as we move into early next week…holding rideable waves at the NW facing spots through Monday and Tuesday.



Further Out the forecast charts are showing another decent storm moving through the Gulf of Alaska over the next couple of days that will set up another round of NW energy (290-300) filling in on the 23rd and then peaking the 24th with more waist-chest high+ sized surf at the top spots. Looks like more WNW-NW swell (285-300) moving in on the 25-26th with similar sizes…and then the potential for a bigger, shoulder high+, NW’er around the 27-28th.

South Pacific
While the SPAC has been on the zonal side lately it hasn’t totally shut off swell production…we have a few small S and SW swells moving in over the next several days that will hold playful waves at the S facing and combo spots.

New S-SSW swell (180-200) peaks on Sunday the 20th and holds waves through the 21st. Another similar sized SSW swell (180-205) moves in on the 22nd and holds more waist-shoulder waves through the middle of next week.



Further out in the SPAC it looks like some new storm action pulling together around New Zealand that will poop (that’s right I said poop) out another SW swell (190-210) that will send more chest-shoulder high waves to the top spots around the 27-28th.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Currently we have TS Marty cruising about 200-300 miles SSW of the tip of Baja (about 700 miles SSE of Socal)…he is in our swell window but there is not much to like about him. He isn’t a very strong storm, his wind speeds (and directions) have been questionable, and his position isn’t that great. I don’t expect much, if any, rideable surf from Marty…just a slight increase energy from the SE that may help to prop up the better looking SPAC swells.





There is another tropical disturbance brewing closer to Mainland Mexico…but it is taking its time getting organized…something may spin up over the next couple of days, but it will still have some travel time to reach our swell window, so it looks like our chance for tropical swell is pretty slim at this point.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, September 21, 2009


Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/14/2009

Forecast Overview
Waves heights will slowly fade from the weekend but won’t drop too far thanks to a mix of new SW and new NW energy that moves in over the next couple of days. We can expect more new NW and SW energy to move in later this week and help keep playful waves at the exposed beaches through next weekend. Man I love Fall...

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
The NW swell (290-300) will be slowly winding down as it mixes with some SW swell (200-220) and some leftover tropical SW energy. The average spots will be in the waist-chest high range. The standout NW facing spots, as well as the best combo spots, will be in the waist-shoulder high...with a couple of rare plus sets showing at the top NW breaks during the low tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to variable-onshore for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.

Wednesday
Wave heights will sort of stabilize as we head into the middle of the week. New energy from both the NW and the SW move into to reinforce the fading swell from earlier in the week. Most spots will continue to see surf around waist high with some less consistent chest high sets. Standout breaks, again mostly the NW facing ones, but with a few of the better combo breaks mixed in as well, will be in the chest high range with some less consistent shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to variable-onshore for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.

Thursday
Overall size will drop a touch...but more NW energy (295-300) in the blend of local windswell and background NPAC energy will move in and continue to send in playful waves to the best exposed areas. Look for more knee-waist high surf at the average spots. Standouts will be more in the waist-chest high range...but the top NW facing spots will still have some rare shoulder high sets mixing in. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to variable-onshore for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Activity in the North Pacific is starting to pick back up...nothing all that great showing yet but there are a lot of good indicators of seeing a significant increase in WNW-NW swell. In the short-run we are going to see a steady, but steeply swell-angled, pulse of NW swell in the form of windswell and background NPAC energy...this will be arriving through the middle of the week, helping hold up the fading NW swell that hit this last weekend. It won’t be much bigger than shoulder high even at the top spots...but it will keep the “winter breaks from going flat.

Further out we are going to see another weak/moderate storm move under the Aleutians later this week that will push some waist-chest high+ NW swell (290-300) our way for the 19-20th. Check it out on this chart...(it is the broader low-pressure) under Alaska...



What really interests me on this chart...and the later parts of the forecast run is Typhoon Choi-wan. That storm is forecast to make a swing through the waters east of Japan and then go extra-tropical as it moves into the high-latitudes. Generally when this happens we see the storm track get very unstable and start to brew up some much more intense storms as the energy locked in the warm tropical low are released. I expect to see an increase in storm strength in the NPAC later this week...who knows we might see a better looking storm form up in a few days...

South Pacific



The SPAC continues to roll along...almost exactly how the forecast charts have been calling it. Storm action has been a bit on the zonal side...but there has still been enough fetch to kick out some rideable sized swells. We are going to see a mix of smaller, less consistent, SW swells for the next few days…and then a slightly better SSW swell (190-210) moving in around the 18-19th.

Over the next few days the SW swell (205-220) that peaked over the weekend will be fading out...but it won’t drop too far thanks to some reinforcement from the SW (200-220) that arrives with waist-chest high+ surf on the 15-16th.

A slightly stronger pulse of SW swell (190-220) moves in on the 19th and peaks into the 20th...this one will be good for chest-high surf at most of the S-SW facing spots and larger sets around shoulder high+ at the standout SW breaks. This will actually be followed by another pulse of SW energy (210-220) that fills in on the 22nd and holds into the 23rd before dropping...it doesn’t bring any more size but it will help string along the wave heights from the first swell a little longer.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
It is quiet down in the tropics all of a sudden...almost too quiet. OK it isn’t completely shut down but actual tropical storm activity has dropped off now that Linda has dissipated. There are a couple of areas that are worth keeping an eye on though...looks like a large areas of thunderstorms are forming just to the SSW of Central Mainland Mexico. The hurricane models are showing signs that the atmospheric conditions are improving and we might see these thunderstorms become more organized over the next couple of days...and that there is a chance that we could see a new tropical-depression or storm form later this week.






Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, September 17, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com

Tuesday’s Surf – Practice swell

Tuesday will be a surf day.

We will have a decent mix of SW swell (190-210) and some local windswell on Tuesday that work to put some playful surf into the exposed beaches. It won’t be great, or that consistent, but the mix of light winds and rideable waves will be a good reason to get in the water.



Wave heights are going to be around the waist-chest high range at most of the exposed spots...a little inconsistent at times but fun when it shows. The standout SW facing spots, mostly through South OC, North Los Angeles County, and Northern San Diego, will be in the chest-shoulder high range on the sets...again expect a little bit of a wait between sets.



Winds look good with light and variable conditions through morning. There may be a few pockets of fog texture as the big fog bank rolls in and out at times. WNW winds 10-12+14 knots will move in through the afternoon.

Basically it will be a pretty average surf day...small cross ups on the combo spots and a few decent little waves at the points/reefs...the surf will be pretty similar at most of the exposed areas so it won’t be worth driving around a ton. I would probably stick to your small-wave gear, fishy shapes or thicker boards, to get a little more out of the in-between sets. It will be a good day to get in the water shake the dust off before the bigger swell later this week (also a good time to scope out the sand bars to see what might work the best).

Here are the tides...watch that low-tide in the early morning.

03:44AM LDT -1.5 L
10:05AM LDT 4.0 H
02:58PM LDT 1.8 L
09:05PM LDT 7.0 H

Surf for Thursday – SW swell and a bit of crumble

Thursday looks like a semi-surf day.

Overall it won’t be anything special...just sort of typical summer surf day...inconsistent SW swell and a touch of onshore texture that builds throughout the day.

We are going to have a mix of SW swells (190-220 from a couple of different storms) and some NW windswell.



Most breaks are going to be in the knee-waist high range with some chest high sneakers on the lower tides. The top SW facing spots, mostly those in South OC, North SD, and North LA, will be in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent bigger sets. Look for the most consistent surf at spots that can combo up the SW/NW energy.

Winds aren’t going to be great tomorrow. It will be OK early in the morning...but I am still expecting some onshore texture even through the dawn patrol. Look for variable/W-SW winds around 5-10 knots by midmorning and more westerly winds around 10-15 knots on tap by the afternoon. Skies will be mostly cloudy but should burn off to clear skies by midday.



Like I said it won’t be a great surf day. The combo of morning tide, onshore texture, and overall inconsistency of the SW swell is going to be a bit of a bummer. That being said there are a few spots out there that have enough wind protection and swell exposure to set up a few fun sets...I wouldn’t drive very far to surf them...but if they are around the corner they will be worth a quick look-see. Personally I would probably bring your small wave board, just to squeeze more of a ride out of the inconsistent sets, and all the smaller in-between ones.

Here are the tides...

01:32AM LDT 0.2 L
07:53AM LDT 3.1 H
12:06PM LDT 2.3 L
06:37PM LDT 5.5 H

Waves for the Weekend – Small swell combo

It looks like we are going to have a couple of surf days this weekend…again it won’t be great but the conditions will be nice and there will be a few playful waves the water.

We are going to have a mix of SW swell (190-210) that moves in and peaks late Saturday and into Sunday and some local NW windswell. We are also going to see some new WNW swell (290-300+) that moves in on Sunday, peaks Sunday evening and holds into Monday. Even though this sounds like a lot of activity none of the swells are particularly big so wave heights will remain in small, slightly inconsistent, playful ranges.

On average we can expect waist-chest high range at spots with sort of moderate exposure to the swell mix. Summer spots will be more consistent Saturday/Sunday while the NW facing breaks will be a little bigger Sunday/Monday. The top breaks, mostly the excellent combo breaks, will have some chest to almost shoulder high sets on the lower tides.


The picture that never changes.

Winds and weather look like your typical spring patterns…a little cloudy with light/variable winds through the mornings with clearning skies and building NW winds (10-15 knots) pushing through the afternoon. Hopefully the winds will stay slow enough in the outer waters that we avoid getting much of an eddy over the next few days.

Like I said there will be some playful surf this weekend…it won’t be firing or anything…but if you have the time it will be worth it to carve out a little session in the morning before the tide comes up. I wouldn’t drive very far to get waves if you can help it…if you find a little peak close to home you should get on it. Smaller wave gear will continue to be the most fun.

Here are the tides…have a great weekend!

Saturday
05:04AM LDT -0.4 L
11:05AM LDT 3.8 H
04:37PM LDT 1.1 L
10:46PM LDT 5.6 H

Sunday
05:52AM LDT -0.4 L
11:57AM LDT 3.4 H
05:05PM LDT 1.5 L
11:22PM LDT 5.5 H

Random Travel Update – Mexico and Central America

I don’t know about you but I am pretty over the cold water and this mostly dismal winter. Yeah there have been a couple of swells here and there, but nothing that has been particularly noteworthy.

I have been starting to keep my eye on the South Pacific, which generally starts to get a more energetic over the next couple of months. I haven’t seen anything lining up for Socal (besides a couple of weak pulses of swell)…but I have been watching some fetch that has a bigger shot of SW swell heading toward Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America.

Now this isn’t the best swell in the world…it really isn’t that big at all…but the water will be warm, winds will be pretty decent, and it certainly will beat the hell out of surfing chilly waist-chest high stormy slop like we have been seeing.

You can actually see the storm right now on the QuikSCAT…



This is actually the second portion of the storm…there was a stronger front that rolled through setting up some nice sea-state for this fetch to work with. Like I said it isn’t super strong…most of the winds hold around 30-35 knots...but the fetch is pretty wide, it moves along the great-circle patch (so it is moving towards the region), and the pre-existing sea-state helps out as well.

This is the swell on the WWIII model…



At this point it looks like the SW swell (205-225) will start to arrive with some longer-period, 18 second, energy late on Feb 27th…and then peak late on the 28th and into March 1st before it fades out through the remainder of next week. There are a couple more storms forecast to run around down there, nothing great, but enough to keep wave heights from dropping too fast after this pulse starts to back down

This incoming swell looks like it will be a consistent chest-head high swell for most of the decent SW facing spots through the Southern Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America region. A few of the deepwater spots may see some overhead sets as it peaks.

Like I said…not huge…but it does sound a lot more fun than what we have around here. Hope some of you guys can sneak away…if anyone does get down there make sure to send me a couple of pics so that I can curl up into a ball of hypothermic jealousy.

Monday’s Surf – Combo swell fog patrol

Monday will be a surf day but we may have trouble seeing the waves during the dawn patrol thanks to some pockets of fog.

We are going to have a mix of a still healthy but fading SSW swell (190-200), some steeply angled NW swell (290-300 which means only a few spots will be able to pick up much of the energy), and some local NNW windswell. Check out the current CDIP model.



Most of the average spots are going to be in the chest high+ range tomorrow. The better SW facing spots will have some shoulder high+ sets. The Standout SW facing breaks and the best combo spots, mostly through San Diego, will have sets in the shoulder-head+ high range on the lower tides.

Winds look good for the morning. Mostly light and variable with some pockets of texture around the bigger fog banks. Currently it looks like most of the fog will be settling over OC and SD but we may see it push further up the coast as well…don’t be surprised. Afternoon winds build out of the NNW around 10-12+ knots.

I checked a few spots on Sunday and it still looked a bit lined up despite a touch more WNW energy trying to break it up. Don’t get me wrong it was peakier than the last couple of days but the beach breaks still had some walled up shape when the bigger sets rolled through. I still think we could have some peakier shape on Monday as more of the WNW swell pushes through but expect the best shape to continue to show at the points and reefs (SW facing and Combo spots) rather than the more open beach breaks. If you need to surf a beach break try and get a pier or jetty…basically something to break it up.

Here are the tides

02:21AM 1.2’ Low
08:28AM 5.9’ High
03:19PM 0.0’ Low
09:17PM 4.3’ High

Waves for the Weekend – SW swell holds while new NW swell starts to arrive

It is going to be a surf weekend. We are going to have a mix of SW and WNW swell, warm weather, light to light-offshore winds, (and probably plenty of crowded lineups to go along with it).

Our surf will be a mix of SW swell (190-210), that holds into Saturday before slowly fading out on Sunday, and small WNW energy that sort of hangs around through Saturday but increases as a new WNW pulse (290-300) starts to hit the northern counties (Ventura and LA) on Sunday before finally pushing into OC and SD later Sunday evening (and holding into Monday).

Here is a shot of the swell mix from this afternoon…you have to love SW swells sometimes.



And here is a shot of the CDIP forecast for the next few days…yes the sideways images are always annoying but once you get oriented you can see where the swell mix shows a bit better.



On Saturday average spots see chest-high+ surf while the average SW facing breaks see chest-head high waves. Standout SW facing breaks in Orange County and North San Diego will have some overhead faces through the morning.

Sunday will start out a little slower…more in the waist-chest high range at the average spots. A little bigger at the average SW facing breaks and close to shoulder high+ at the standout combo breaks. Looks like a few of top combo spots could see some chest-head high faces on the bigger sets in the afternoon (if you can find a spot not buried by the tide).

Winds look good for both days…look for light/variable to light offshore flow for the mornings and light/moderate onshore bump for the more exposed breaks through the afternoons.

I wish that there was a bit more WNW energy pushing through over the weekend…or at least the swell we are seeing would come in a bit more westerly. As it is…it looks like the SW swell is going to stay pretty lined up at the beach breaks…so we can expect some hollow but mostly closed out lefts marching down the beach. Points and reefs are going to have much better shape but since the beach breaks are sort of a lost cause it looks like the other spots are going to get pretty slammed crowdwise. I would plan on it being a bit frustrating at times.

Personally I am holding out some hope for Sunday/Monday. With a little luck the new WNW pulse will be strong enough to break up the fading SW’er…I don’t know about you but I am willing to sacrifice a little size to get a (mostly) uncrowded peak on a beach break somewhere…who knows maybe you like closeout lefts and crowded pointbreaks, you freak.

Have a great weekend!

Oh here are the tides...

Saturday
01:23AM 0.5’ Low
07:39AM 5.4’ High
02:03PM 0.8’ Low
07:50PM 4.7’ High

Sunday
01:54AM 0.8’ Low
08:04AM 5.7’ High
02:42PM 0.3’ Low
08:35PM 4.5’ High

Tuesday's Surf - Fun in the right spots

Tuesday looks a bit more surfable than Monday...I would even venture to call it a surf day since conditions are going to cooperate a little more.

I was probably a little hard on Monday's surf in yesterday's forecast...I was checking the surf at lunch today and saw a few fun peaks spread around the beach breaks. It wasn't firing but it was a bit better than I was expecting by that time of the day. I spent a few extra minutes going "where is my freaking wind dammit!?!".

Anyway Tuesday the swell mix will continue...the SW'er (200-220) will be a little more southerly and the local windswell will be a touch bigger.

Most spots will continue to see surf in the waist high range. Better exposed breaks will be in the waist-chest high range while the top breaks, mostly in San Diego and South OC, see some chest-shoulder high sets on the lower tides.
Winds look nice and light through the morning...light and variable for most spots with a couple of pockets of texture at the more open beaches. NW winds come onshore around 10 knots for the afternoon.

It won't be worth driving around a ton tomorrow...I would probably try and find waves close to home since there isn't a ton of size hitting anywhere. The combo spots will probably be the most fun...nice little crossed up peaks if you can pull in the swell mix. The points/reefs with SW exposure will be fun as well but make be a bit less consistent.

Here are the tides for Tuesday

05:23AM 3.8' High
09:38AM 3.2' Low
03:19PM 4.9' High
11:08PM 0.1' Low

Waves for the Weekend - Tide Swamp, Fog, and Surf

Saturday and Sunday will have enough swell to be surf days...but the combo of tides, fog, and winds will work hard to hamper our enjoyment.

We will have a couple of SSW-SW swells overlapping this weekend that mix with a bit of background NW windswell and a touch of longer-period (10-12 second) NW swell.

Average S-facing spots, mostly through North LA and a few of the other spots that are sort of on the bubble, will be in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets.

Standout S-SW facing breaks through Orange County and San Diego will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger head high sets at the top spots.

The lame fog will continue at least through Saturday morning (but probably early Sunday as well)...so look for hard to see and lightly textured conditions through the dawn patrols. The fog is forecast to burn off in the afternoons but onshore winds out of the NW at about 12-14 knots slip into its place and helps to slop things up.

Tides will continue to be an issue, particularly through the mornings...we see a 5'+ high tide peak both Saturday and Sunday around 8:45-9:00am both days. This higher tide is going to make the wave heights seem a lot smaller, and shape will suck for many spots, but the swell is out there so we just need to cross our fingers that the tide will drop, the fog lifts, and the winds stay down long enough for conditions to pull themselves together.

If you have to get out and surf early I would try and pick spots that have a little shelter from the foggy onshore texture (spots with high cliffs or a pier/jetty/kelp...something to knock down the light breeze)...you are also going to want to try and hit up a break that can handle the high tide.

Here are the tides

Saturday

02:35AM -0.1' Low
08:43AM 5.3' High
02:48PM 0.8' Low
08:40PM 5.5' High

Sunday

03:03AM 0.2' Low
09:08AM 5.5' High
03:26PM 0.5' Low
09:20PM 5.2' High


The Cosmic Creek contest is down at Salt Creek in Orange County this weekend...so if you weren't planning on watching a contest then you might want to avoid the spot. They are going to be surfing on both Saturday and Sunday so expect limited access to the surf there. If the fog burns off...the contest is sort of cool...you have to ride 70's shapes, which makes for some interesting heats. They always have some sort of other nonsense going on down at the beach so if you got time to kill it might be worth walking down and checking it out.




Have a great weekend...hope you guys can dial in a few waves between all the funk!

Another SW swell Alert: Another good shot of SW swell on the way

Yep that is right…another round of SW swell is being kicked out from the Southern Hemi. It will be sending another pulse of overhead to well-overhead surf to Central America and Mainland Mexico.

Baja Sur will have a smaller but still very fun pulse of SW energy.

Southern California, on the other hand, will once again get the shaft by the South Pacific Island shadow. Sure we will get a few waves but it will be quite a bit weaker and less consistent than other areas.

I was checkout out this storm today trying to get a read on the wave heights and noticed that at first glance it had a lot of characteristics of the last Southern Hemi storm that kicked out a big SW swell. (You can see how well that swell hit Mainland Mexico, and Hawaii)

Looking closer there are some pretty big differences…here check it out

These next 2 QUIKSCAT images are from the current storm…





While this next series is from the last one…



First off you note that the new storm is not nearly as strong as the last one…it is still healthy but it doesn’t have that “eye of mordor” black hole in the core of the storm…(its core is more like an angry purple). Just because it is lacking wind speeds doesn’t mean that it will be too much smaller surfwise. It does have a few other things that the first storm didn’t.

It has a longer, more established fetch…in fact it is moving over an area that had what we call “an established sea state” which happens to be already pointed in a good general direction…so the storm doesn’t have to waste energy trying to produce the sea-state needed to generate swell…it just hops on the work another cold-front and starts kicking out waves tag-team style. The fetch is also a bit wider which only adds to the energy it will impart to the swell

Finally this storm looks like it has a better movement track…particularly for Mainland Mex and Central America…it is moving more towards those areas than slightly “against the grain” like the last system did.

What does all this mean? Well basically I think that even though the storm wasn’t as strong as the first one it did have enough other positive factors to produce a swell very close to what we saw with the last swell.

So on to the Surf…

Mainland Mexico and Central America will see this swell start to arrive on the 29th…with the peak of the swell hitting late on the 30th and then holding strong through May 1-3rd. Look for surf consistently in the head-high to well overhead range for the average exposed breaks. Standout deepwater spots, particularly those in Mainland Mexico (Like Puerto Escondido) will have sets hitting around the double-overhead range.

Baja Sur sees less of the swell but still plenty of playful waves. Look for this swell to arrive more on the 30th but peak May 1-3. As the swell peaks most spots will hold around shoulder-high+ on the sets while the standout spots see overhead sets.

Southern California and Baja Norte will see shadowing by the South Pacific Islands along with some potential wind problems as strong NW flow moves into the area the same time as the swell. Look for the swell to start showing late on the 30th, fill in slowly on May 1st and then peak May 2-3. Look for mostly waist-chest high waves for the exposed areas and some shoulder high+ waves at the standouts, which will be mostly in Northern San Diego and Southern Orange County.

That is about all I got for this swell…I wish it had a better swell-angle for SoCal but you can’t win them all. There are a couple of decent storms way under Australia right now…so it will be interesting to see what they do once they reach the South Pacific…I am sure I will be filling you in on them later.

Random SW swell Alert: RECAP – Part 2

Here are some more photos from the S-SW swell…I actually got these a few days ago from my buddy over in the islands.

If you remember that alert-post I sent out…I mentioned that there was a pretty good dose of S swell from that storm headed to Hawaii. Well it looked pretty good when it got there.

Check out these photos... (somewhere in the islands)







If you have any more photos from this swell feel free to send them over...I will throw them up on the bloggy!

Random SW Swell Alert – UPDATE! (the good and the bad)

Well I have some good news and some bad news.

First the good news…the SW swell is still in the water heading towards all the areas that I outlined in the first post (Baja, Mainland Mex, Northern Central America, Hawaii, and California). The timing is still correct and for the most part the wave heights are going to be right on…well except in one area.

That is the bad news. Southern California is going to get a pretty good dose of swell shadowing thanks to the South Pacific islands (read more about swell shadowing here).

You can see a great example of the swell shadow on last nights WavewatchIII swell period chart.




Now that I have confirmation on the shadowing I am going to revise the wave heights for Socal.

Here is the revised SoCal forecast…

Southern California – The SW swell moves in on the 20th, actually following a small playful one that hits around the 17-18th. This new SW’er (200-220) ends up peaking on the 21st and into the 22nd. Due to shadowing from the South Pacific it won’t be as big or consistent as the other regions. We can still expect the average breaks to be around knee-waist high+. Standout spots, mostly in North San Diego and Southern Orange County, will have some bigger but inconsistent shoulder high+ sets.

It is a drag to have scale down the swell for SoCal…it had some decent potential (and I was looking forward to some waves)…oh well can’t win them all.

Like I said above, the swell is still looking good for every other region so if you are traveling and need info on the sizes, swell directions, and arrival times, you can check out the original post here.

Post #1 - Random SW Swell Alert – The South Pacific is heating up!