Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/17/2009

Forecast Overview
Looks like a surf weekend coming up…we will have a mix of new NW and SSW swell pulsing in over the next couple of days mixing with decent morning tides and light winds. More playful sized combo swell (and more clean conditions) will be on tap for most of next week as well.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Friday
New NW swell (290-300) moves into SoCal and overlaps the playful NW pulse that we are already seeing. The new energy will show mostly in Ventura/LA for the morning but will trickle down to OC and San Diego as we move throughout the day. This blend of NW’ers will be mixing with some S-SW energy (190-220), and some background tropical energy. Most NW facing spots and SW combo breaks will hold around waist-chest high on the sets. The standout NW facing spots and excellent combo breaks will be around waist-shoulder high with some bigger sets mixing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Conditions look clean for the morning with mostly light/variable to light offshore flow. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.

Saturday
The NW swell (290-300) will hold while a new SSW swell (180-200) moves in later in the afternoon. Wave heights will generally be the same as Friday but we will lose a touch of size at the NW facing spots while the S facing breaks get a little energy. Basically it is a win for the combo breaks. Expect the average spots to hold in the waist-chest high range while the standout NW breaks and good combo spots see some waist-shoulder high surf and some shoulder high+ sets at times. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions continue…mostly light and variable for the morning. WNW winds around 10-14 knots move in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The NW’er backs off a touch more but the S-SSW swell (180-200) starts to peak. Look for more waist-chest high+ surf at the better S facing breaks, particularly ones that can pull in a bit of the leftover NW’er. Top combo spots will be more in the waist-shoulder high range. Winds/Weather: Winds continue to look good…mostly light and variable to even light offshore for the morning…and just moderate NW winds (10-12 knots) by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The North Pacific is continuing to pick up steam. Of course it hasn’t cranked up to full winter strength but it has been able to roll out a series of playful sized WNW-NW swells that have blended nicely with some playful Southern Hemi swells.

The trend of decent Fall-sized NW swells will continue as we move through the weekend and into next week. New NW energy starts to arrive on Friday and will peak overnight into Saturday before fading slowly on Sunday, (get the size/direction details in the short-range section). The swell sort of stabilizes in the knee-chest high range as we move into early next week…holding rideable waves at the NW facing spots through Monday and Tuesday.



Further Out the forecast charts are showing another decent storm moving through the Gulf of Alaska over the next couple of days that will set up another round of NW energy (290-300) filling in on the 23rd and then peaking the 24th with more waist-chest high+ sized surf at the top spots. Looks like more WNW-NW swell (285-300) moving in on the 25-26th with similar sizes…and then the potential for a bigger, shoulder high+, NW’er around the 27-28th.

South Pacific
While the SPAC has been on the zonal side lately it hasn’t totally shut off swell production…we have a few small S and SW swells moving in over the next several days that will hold playful waves at the S facing and combo spots.

New S-SSW swell (180-200) peaks on Sunday the 20th and holds waves through the 21st. Another similar sized SSW swell (180-205) moves in on the 22nd and holds more waist-shoulder waves through the middle of next week.



Further out in the SPAC it looks like some new storm action pulling together around New Zealand that will poop (that’s right I said poop) out another SW swell (190-210) that will send more chest-shoulder high waves to the top spots around the 27-28th.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Currently we have TS Marty cruising about 200-300 miles SSW of the tip of Baja (about 700 miles SSE of Socal)…he is in our swell window but there is not much to like about him. He isn’t a very strong storm, his wind speeds (and directions) have been questionable, and his position isn’t that great. I don’t expect much, if any, rideable surf from Marty…just a slight increase energy from the SE that may help to prop up the better looking SPAC swells.





There is another tropical disturbance brewing closer to Mainland Mexico…but it is taking its time getting organized…something may spin up over the next couple of days, but it will still have some travel time to reach our swell window, so it looks like our chance for tropical swell is pretty slim at this point.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, September 21, 2009


Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/14/2009

Forecast Overview
Waves heights will slowly fade from the weekend but won’t drop too far thanks to a mix of new SW and new NW energy that moves in over the next couple of days. We can expect more new NW and SW energy to move in later this week and help keep playful waves at the exposed beaches through next weekend. Man I love Fall...

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
The NW swell (290-300) will be slowly winding down as it mixes with some SW swell (200-220) and some leftover tropical SW energy. The average spots will be in the waist-chest high range. The standout NW facing spots, as well as the best combo spots, will be in the waist-shoulder high...with a couple of rare plus sets showing at the top NW breaks during the low tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to variable-onshore for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.

Wednesday
Wave heights will sort of stabilize as we head into the middle of the week. New energy from both the NW and the SW move into to reinforce the fading swell from earlier in the week. Most spots will continue to see surf around waist high with some less consistent chest high sets. Standout breaks, again mostly the NW facing ones, but with a few of the better combo breaks mixed in as well, will be in the chest high range with some less consistent shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to variable-onshore for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.

Thursday
Overall size will drop a touch...but more NW energy (295-300) in the blend of local windswell and background NPAC energy will move in and continue to send in playful waves to the best exposed areas. Look for more knee-waist high surf at the average spots. Standouts will be more in the waist-chest high range...but the top NW facing spots will still have some rare shoulder high sets mixing in. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to variable-onshore for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Activity in the North Pacific is starting to pick back up...nothing all that great showing yet but there are a lot of good indicators of seeing a significant increase in WNW-NW swell. In the short-run we are going to see a steady, but steeply swell-angled, pulse of NW swell in the form of windswell and background NPAC energy...this will be arriving through the middle of the week, helping hold up the fading NW swell that hit this last weekend. It won’t be much bigger than shoulder high even at the top spots...but it will keep the “winter breaks from going flat.

Further out we are going to see another weak/moderate storm move under the Aleutians later this week that will push some waist-chest high+ NW swell (290-300) our way for the 19-20th. Check it out on this chart...(it is the broader low-pressure) under Alaska...



What really interests me on this chart...and the later parts of the forecast run is Typhoon Choi-wan. That storm is forecast to make a swing through the waters east of Japan and then go extra-tropical as it moves into the high-latitudes. Generally when this happens we see the storm track get very unstable and start to brew up some much more intense storms as the energy locked in the warm tropical low are released. I expect to see an increase in storm strength in the NPAC later this week...who knows we might see a better looking storm form up in a few days...

South Pacific



The SPAC continues to roll along...almost exactly how the forecast charts have been calling it. Storm action has been a bit on the zonal side...but there has still been enough fetch to kick out some rideable sized swells. We are going to see a mix of smaller, less consistent, SW swells for the next few days…and then a slightly better SSW swell (190-210) moving in around the 18-19th.

Over the next few days the SW swell (205-220) that peaked over the weekend will be fading out...but it won’t drop too far thanks to some reinforcement from the SW (200-220) that arrives with waist-chest high+ surf on the 15-16th.

A slightly stronger pulse of SW swell (190-220) moves in on the 19th and peaks into the 20th...this one will be good for chest-high surf at most of the S-SW facing spots and larger sets around shoulder high+ at the standout SW breaks. This will actually be followed by another pulse of SW energy (210-220) that fills in on the 22nd and holds into the 23rd before dropping...it doesn’t bring any more size but it will help string along the wave heights from the first swell a little longer.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
It is quiet down in the tropics all of a sudden...almost too quiet. OK it isn’t completely shut down but actual tropical storm activity has dropped off now that Linda has dissipated. There are a couple of areas that are worth keeping an eye on though...looks like a large areas of thunderstorms are forming just to the SSW of Central Mainland Mexico. The hurricane models are showing signs that the atmospheric conditions are improving and we might see these thunderstorms become more organized over the next couple of days...and that there is a chance that we could see a new tropical-depression or storm form later this week.






Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, September 17, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/17/2009

Forecast Overview
We will have mostly weak waves for the next few days but building SW swell starts moving in on Friday and will start a looooong run of overlapping Southern Hemi swells that will keep us in some quality waves almost through the end of the month. (Lots of info in the South Pacific outlook).

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
Small mix of weak SW swell and some local NW windswell. Most spots will be in the knee high range with a few rare waist high+ sets at the best combo spots. Look for soft, mostly tide-swamped shape through the morning, and even swampier shape by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: slight eddy conditions on Tuesday. Look for variable/Southerly winds around 2-3 knots for the morning as well as overcast skies. Sunnier skies and building WNW flow (10-12 knots) moves in through the afternoon.

Wednesday
The weak SW/NW swell mix continues with knee high+ surf at the average SW facing spots. Slightly bigger waist high+ sets will leak into the top SW facing breaks, mostly through South Orange County and North San Diego. Winds/Weather: Mostly clean morning conditions with light and variable winds on tap for most areas…a few spots will have some slightly textured conditions thanks to a weak eddy. Overcast skies continue through the early part of the day. WNW winds 10-12+ knots move in through the afternoon.

Thursday
It will be small again, and we will be sick of it already. Weak SW swell and WNW windswell will combo up for knee high surf and a few waist high sets at the standouts. The tides get a bit better in the morning…but we are still going to be surfing on our small wave gear. Winds/Weather: Looks clean with light and variable winds through the morning. Look for building onshore WNW winds in the 10-12 knot range by the afternoon.

Long-Range

North Pacific
The NPAC is still pretty quiet…high-pressure continues to block up the storm-track forcing almost any storm action up over Alaska. Long-range isn’t showing a lot of changes at this point…but I am starting to see a little activity in the Gulf of Alaska by late this upcoming weekend. Not a wave maker by any means, but it is nice to see some life to the storm track up that way.

South Pacific
First the bad news…we have to slog through some Southern Hemi leftovers for the next few days…and waiting for anything is a pain in the ass. The good news is that a damn good-looking storm has steamrolling through our swell window for the past few days and is forecast to get even better over the next 2 days. I won’t go into a lot of the storm details in this forecast…but make sure to check out the Swell Alert that I sent out for this one.



You can see that big red meatball of wave-heights (and a decent pass from the JASON-1 Satellite) on the swell model. As always I want to give a big out to Mark at www.stormsurf.com for letting me poach the occasional chart, make sure to visit his site when you get a chance.

Anywhooo…this storm has actually been rolling just of Antarctica for the last few days…setting up a new S-SW swell for later this week. The swell will start off more SW’erly as it first arrives but it will quickly turn more southerly as it fills in and it will be almost completely S-swell by the time it peaks next week. Look for the first long-period SW swell (200-220) forerunners to start to show on Friday the 21st. This first part of the swell will fill in throughout the day and then start to peak Satuday and Sunday, August 22-23rd. At it peaks, this initial SW’er will be good for chest-shoulder high waves at the average S facing spots while the standouts see head high and some inconsistent overhead sets.

The second, bigger and more Southerly portion of the swell (180-200) starts to arrive late on the 23rd and will peak the 24-27th. This more southerly swell has a better angle and the fetch was a bit closer so I am expecting more size and more consistency as it peaks. Look for average S facing spots to move into the shoulder-head high+ range while the standout S facing spots see consistent shoulder-overhead sizes and some sets going 2-3’ overhead (and bigger at those best S-swell spots.)

There are still a couple of days of development on the 2nd part of the swell...but based on today’s forecasts it looks like lots of healthy waves on tap for next week. If you like bigger waves these overlapping swells look like a good one to travel on since you can get several days of surfing out of them.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Suddenly quiet…but not completely peaceful…there are still some tropical disturbances close to Mainland Mexico/Central America…unfortunately forecasts don’ have them developing any time soon. No new storms are expected to develop for the next couple of days.



Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, August 20, 2009

- Adam Wright

Monday’s Surf – Still small…but swell on the way

Monday won’t be much of a surf day.

There still isn’t much swell out there…just some weak marginal leftover energy from both the NW and SW.

Basically we can expect ankle-knee high surf at most of the average spots and some more consistent knee high sets at the top spots. There is a little more windswell in the water right now but I am expecting it to fade fast through the morning as winds slacken up overnight.

Weather looks fine…basically light/variable/offshore for the morning, some fog as well. Winds turn onshore but stay below 12-15 knots for the afternoon.

There really isn’t a good call tomorrow, unless you count staying in bed or getting some chores done. If you have to paddle around stick to a top spot and bring your longboard…that way you can pick off a couple of mushy soft ones if a peak sneaks through now and then.

Since I don’t have a lot of surf to talk about for Monday I did take a look at the long-range forecast…The surf is going to get bigger later this week but the weather is going to go poop too…it is basically going to be a race to see if some new W-WNW swell can fill in before the storm front pushes over the region.

This new little low, and some other fetch currently just to the north of Hawaii, are going to be setting up some new W-WNW swell (260-300) that will start to arrive late on the 4th and will peak into the 5-6th. I don’t think there is going to be much showing on the 4th itself…most of the energy will be arriving after sundown…but there will be a small/weak pulse of SSW energy filling in that day that could help add a touch more size than we are seeing right now.

At this point it looks like we are going to lose the weather race…the wind models as well as the NWS are calling for S winds and rain on Thursday the 5th…and more on Friday. But sometimes these fronts will stall out leaving us with some building swell without the weather…hopefully this will be the case this time. Check back…I will have some more updates as we get a little closer.

Waves for Wednesday - A few leftover waves for Hump Day

Wednesday will be another surf day. It will have some issues with the tide, and possibly some more of that silly fog in the morning...but overall there will still be a few fun waves sneaking through at the exposed spots.

I heard a bunch of reports from our surf clan out there today that made it sound pretty fun. I even snagged a pretty fun-looking sunset session off of one of the San Diego surf cams. Check it out...



Swellwise the current WNW'er we have doing most of the work will be backing down leaving us with mostly WNW leftovers and small background pulse of SW swell. It won't be flat or anything but overall it will be smaller and less consistent.

Average spots can expect surf in the waist high range with a few waist high+ sets.

Standout NW facing breaks, mostly through San Diego but also creeping into a couple of the better winter combo spots in other regions as well, will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range on inconsistent sets.

Winds look good...mostly light and variable with a few areas of light offshore flow in the morning. Looks like overcast skies still, maybe some areas of fog...then slightly clearer skies by the afternoon. Winds stay light most of the day but will get some slight onshore bump by the second part of the day.

Expect just sort of small and playful surf for most areas tomorrow. It will be a good excuse to break out the fish or the other small wave gear and have some fun. The top spots will be a little speedier and have a little more punch but in general it won't be very critical. The tide is going to hurt it a bit more as the swell drops so try to avoid the peak of the high if you can.

Here are the tides...

01:58AM LST 3.5 H
05:30AM LST 3.2 L
11:18AM LST 4.5 H
07:24PM LST 0.5 L

Oh and a couple of notes on the long-range forecast...we will be getting another decent round of WNW swell moving in later on Thursday and peaking Friday/Saturday. This looks like it will be followed by another pulse of WNW energy on the 7-8th (and we may see a bigger SSW swell at the same time...hmmm can you say combo swell?). I will throw up some more details over the next couple of days.