Waves for Wednesday – A few fun ones…make sure to pack the wetsuit

Wednesday is looking like a surf day.

We are going to have a mix of overlapping S-SW swells (180-215) coming in from a couple of different storms down in the SPAC. There will also be a mix of weak NW swell (290-300 but mostly over 295), and some building local WNW-NW windswell coming in from our outer waters. Looks like the swell mix will hold steady through the day…with another shot of SW swell arriving in the afternoon.



Sizewise…even though we have a lot of different swells, they aren’t super big. Since they are coming in from all over most breaks are going to have some sort of surf. Average spots with some S and WNW exposure can expect surf in the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets at the breaks a little more open SW energy. The standout SW facing breaks and the really good combo spots (mostly in OC and SD) will be in the waist-chest high range fairly consistently along with some shoulder high+ sets showing during the lower tides. The bigger waves will still be a tad inconsistent…but fun when they show.

Before we get to the weather here is a quick note on Tuesday’s conditions…yeah Tuesday ended up being pretty clean, it sucks to get the forecast wrong, but Mother Nature has got a pretty solid track-record of playing by her own rules and if she wants the wind light, there isn’t much our weak-sauce little computers (or forecasters) can do about it.

Anyways, looking back at what set up the lighter winds…we basically got lucky on Tuesday. Monday’s winds pushed out the eddy/overcast set up we had going and then building high-pressure got an early start on moving over our area. The new ridge settled in faster thanks to a combination of “now colder” ocean temps and the clear evening skies that cooled off the air-mass over the coast and helped to set up a bit of a land-breeze to counter the onshore flow that was supposed to continue through the morning…which was cool for us as surfers (if you were paying attention), but lame for my forecast calling for onshore wind in the morning.

Ok enough of that…let’s move on to Wednesday. It looks like the eddy has been disrupted enough that our wind will remain light for Wednesday morning. Current forecasts are calling for light/variable to light/onshore flow for the morning…with wind speeds holding below 3-5 knots for most areas. These winds do shift onshore after mid-morning and will eventually come out of the W-WNW around 12-15 knots for most areas.





With winds staying lighter…and some playful sized waves on tap for the expose areas…tomorrow is looking pretty surfable, particularly this summer’s standards. I think that the morning will be the best call…but we will have to let the -1.0’ low tide fill in a little or shape may be a little drained…I bet the good spots will end up being pretty fun as the tide rolls in. One thing to keep in mind…I am getting emails from a lot of you guys saying the water temps dipped down to the low 60’s/upper 50’s in some areas, so I would plan on bringing the wetsuit if you don’t want your ‘nads to fall off.

07/14/2010 Wednesday
05:59AM LDT -1.0 L
12:21PM LDT 4.6 H
05:53PM LDT 1.5 L
11:42PM LDT 5.6 H

Surf for Friday – New WNW-NW swell with a little wind-bump on the side

Friday looks pretty surfable…and with the weather warming back up, it being a Friday, and there being some swell to ride…I think we should just go ahead and call it a surf day.

We will have a mix of fading SW swell (195-215), a new building WNW-NW swell (280-300), and some increasing local windswell. The WNW’er will already be showing up around Ventura (and probably the South Bay) by the morning but it will have just started to arrive in OC and San Diego…so don’t expect a ton of new energy from it at first unless you are a little further north. It will fill in more through the day and as the local windswell jumps into the mix the WNW-NW facing spots should be pretty consistent by the afternoon.



Overall it looks like the average SW and WNW facing spots will continue to hold in the waist-chest high range…with some plus sets showing at the average combo spots. Standout NW facing breaks will be chest-shoulder high on most sets with some head high and overhead waves mixing in as the WNW energy gets more established. There will be another decent sized tide swing through the morning…so try and pick spots that can handle the extra water in the morning and then the negative low-tide around lunchtime.

Looks like winds will be fairly clean in the morning…there may be a little variable onshore winds here are there but it will be on the light side (hopefully below 5 knots). The winds switch onshore by the afternoon and push in out of the WNW-NW around 10-15+ knots.

Here are the graphical NWS regional models…the COAMPS needs to lay off the crack it has been smoking lately (they must be running it on a Vista machine).

Winds for Santa Barbara through Los Angeles



Winds for Orange County and San Diego



So it won’t be anything spectacular on Friday…the swell isn’t all that big for most spots…but there will still be enough combo in the water that almost everyone will be able to find something to ride. It will be one of those compromise days in terms of the tide/wind…do you surf early with the high tide and clean conditions? Or do you wait for the tide to drop and then get bumpy shape thanks to increasing onshore winds? Personally I am going to aim for somewhere in the middle and hope that I can find a sandbar somewhere that can take on the swampthing.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/26/2010 Friday
12:55AM LDT 1.5 L
06:44AM LDT 5.2 H
01:42PM LDT -0.7 L
07:59PM LDT 4.4 H

Surf Photos – A few from Sunday Funday

Here are a few more shots from the NW swell that hit last weekend (Nov 8), taken from on high. I wish there were a few peaks like these out there today

Waves for Wednesday – a little more juice

Wednesday will be a surf day…though we still have to power through the midmorning high tide swamp.

In the water we are going to see a mix of slowly fading SW swell (200-220), some building NW energy (290-300), and some small local windswell that is hanging in the background.



The average spots are going to hold around waist-chest high on most sets coming through…it will be primarily the NW swell mix so look for the most consistent surf at spots with exposure to that direction. The SW facing spots will be less consistent, but about the same size on the sets. Standout breaks, mostly the top NW/SW spots and the best combo spots, will be in the chest-shoulder high range on sets with a few bigger head high sets on the lower tides.

Winds look good…mostly light offshore through the morning, with a couple of pockets of variable direction texture. There is a chance for some morning fog again…very patchy like the last time…but it may whip up a little bump if it settles on your region. Afternoon winds are supposed to be mellow…but look for building onshore bump for the most exposed areas as winds pick up a bit out of the NW by mid-afternoon.



It won’t be great tomorrow…but the mix of swells, one of which will be fairly consistent, and the nice conditions will make a good case to at least paddle around a bit. The tides will be a bit problematic but even with the extra water there are still a few corners to find. I think that your best bet is going to be the good combo spots during the dawn patrol…with the best shape at the beach breaks that can handle a bit of tide…though the points/reefs will be an ok fallback.

Here are the tides…hope you get some humpday love.

04:36AM LDT 2.4 L
10:49AM LDT 5.7 H
06:28PM LDT 0.1 L

Waves for Monday – More foggy surf

Monday will be surfable, but between the fog, and the lame fog winds, I think that it won’t quite be a surf day.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of still peaking NW swell (290-300) and some S-SW swell (190-220). The NW’er has been running more 295-300-degrees for most of the day on Sunday…but looking at some of the latest buoy readings it appears that some of the more westerly elements of the swell are starting to fill in…so the spread will be a truer 290-300, maybe even some energy as low as 285. Overall it will feel like more energy showing at the top NW spots, while a few of the breaks that need the more WNW swell angles will finally start to see some waves, not big ones mind you, but at least something to ride.



Wave heights are going to continue to average in the waist high range for most spots…the better NW breaks and the ok combo spots will be more in the waist-chest high+ range. Top NW facing spots (breaks that like the 295+ swell angles) as well as the best combo spots will have more consistent chest-shoulder high surf with a few bigger sets mixing in at times.

Weather still looks a bit lame…we will continue to see the periods of patchy-but-thick fog, and variable onshore flow that has crept in with it. Look for light onshore flow around 3-5 knots with some areas seeing some occasionally stronger winds. Afternoon winds pick up out of the WNW 10-15 knots.



So for tomorrow I do think there will be surf…it just won’t be all that great…winds and fog will continue to hamper conditions. I think your best bet will be just to stick to your local spots…the onshore bump is going to be mostly out of the west, which screws pretty much everyone. If you don’t mind the bump…I would concentrate on the good combo spots if you are in North LA and Orange County…and the top NW facing breaks in San Diego (mostly South San Diego) and Ventura.

Here are the tides…lets cross our fingers that conditions will improve in the next day or two. (Looks much cleaner later this week).

12:51AM LDT 0.6 L
07:34AM LDT 4.0 H
12:46PM LDT 2.6 L
06:19PM LDT 4.7 H

Waves for the weekend – plan on surfing...a lot.

Both Saturday and Sunday are going to be surf days...so plan on setting a few hours aside to ride some waves this weekend.

The playful NW/SW combo that we have been seeing the last few days will get some reinforcement as both a new NW swell (290-300) and a new SSW (180-200) mix in over the weekend. The NW’er will actually peak late Friday night but will hold waves through Saturday before dipping slightly on Sunday. The SSW’er will fill in slowly on Saturday and will peak into early Sunday, holding waves into the start of next week.



So for the weekend...look for surf to hang around waist-chest high+ at the average exposed breaks. Better NW facing spots will be closer to chest-shoulder high range on Saturday, and the better SSW facing breaks will be chest-shoulder high on Sunday. The top combo spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets throughout the weekend. A few of the best breaks might see some slightly bigger peaks as the swells cross up on the sets.

Winds look good for both Saturday and Sunday morning. We can expect light and variable to slightly offshore conditions from the dawn patrol through midmorning. Building onshore flow picks up around lunchtime but only really hits the westerly 10-12 knot range by later in the afternoon. Sunday may see the wind pick up a little earlier...so if you want to avoid the bump you might want to try and motivate closer to sunup.

Saturday Morning Winds


Sunday Morning Winds


The mix of swells is going to send playful rideable waves to spots all over Southern California...but please keep in mind that Santa Barbara will be a bit smaller thanks to shadowing from Point Conception and the Channel Islands. North LA, particularly as you get close to Santa Monica, will also be a touch smaller thanks to being tucked back into a more shadowed area. It won’t be flat in either area...just don’t expect as much combo-funness as the other more exposed spots.

The biggest surf is going to be showing in San Diego, Southern Ventura, and parts of Orange County...and will shift around those regions as the NW and SSW swells peak. I think that the combo beach breaks will be the most fun...especially if they have some decent sandbars and/or can handle a little fatter of a tide that hits midday. The points and reefs will be good too, but may be a touch shifty compared to how they behave on the pure single swells. Personally I am going to try and crawl out of bed for the dawn patrols on both mornings...the high tide is slowly pushing closer to lunchtime so I think there is going to be a better window for clean, tide-pushed, surf through the first part of the day.

Here are the tides...have a great weekend...hope you score a playful little peak of your own (there will be plenty out there). Definitely watch that midmorning high tide...it is a swampthing.

Saturday
03:50AM LDT 0.2 L
09:55AM LDT 5.9 H
04:23PM LDT 0.0 L
10:21PM LDT 5.2 H

Sunday
04:21AM LDT 0.8 L
10:26AM LDT 6.0 H
05:09PM LDT 0.0 L
11:08PM LDT 4.6 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/17/2009

Forecast Overview
Looks like a surf weekend coming up…we will have a mix of new NW and SSW swell pulsing in over the next couple of days mixing with decent morning tides and light winds. More playful sized combo swell (and more clean conditions) will be on tap for most of next week as well.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Friday
New NW swell (290-300) moves into SoCal and overlaps the playful NW pulse that we are already seeing. The new energy will show mostly in Ventura/LA for the morning but will trickle down to OC and San Diego as we move throughout the day. This blend of NW’ers will be mixing with some S-SW energy (190-220), and some background tropical energy. Most NW facing spots and SW combo breaks will hold around waist-chest high on the sets. The standout NW facing spots and excellent combo breaks will be around waist-shoulder high with some bigger sets mixing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Conditions look clean for the morning with mostly light/variable to light offshore flow. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.

Saturday
The NW swell (290-300) will hold while a new SSW swell (180-200) moves in later in the afternoon. Wave heights will generally be the same as Friday but we will lose a touch of size at the NW facing spots while the S facing breaks get a little energy. Basically it is a win for the combo breaks. Expect the average spots to hold in the waist-chest high range while the standout NW breaks and good combo spots see some waist-shoulder high surf and some shoulder high+ sets at times. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions continue…mostly light and variable for the morning. WNW winds around 10-14 knots move in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The NW’er backs off a touch more but the S-SSW swell (180-200) starts to peak. Look for more waist-chest high+ surf at the better S facing breaks, particularly ones that can pull in a bit of the leftover NW’er. Top combo spots will be more in the waist-shoulder high range. Winds/Weather: Winds continue to look good…mostly light and variable to even light offshore for the morning…and just moderate NW winds (10-12 knots) by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The North Pacific is continuing to pick up steam. Of course it hasn’t cranked up to full winter strength but it has been able to roll out a series of playful sized WNW-NW swells that have blended nicely with some playful Southern Hemi swells.

The trend of decent Fall-sized NW swells will continue as we move through the weekend and into next week. New NW energy starts to arrive on Friday and will peak overnight into Saturday before fading slowly on Sunday, (get the size/direction details in the short-range section). The swell sort of stabilizes in the knee-chest high range as we move into early next week…holding rideable waves at the NW facing spots through Monday and Tuesday.



Further Out the forecast charts are showing another decent storm moving through the Gulf of Alaska over the next couple of days that will set up another round of NW energy (290-300) filling in on the 23rd and then peaking the 24th with more waist-chest high+ sized surf at the top spots. Looks like more WNW-NW swell (285-300) moving in on the 25-26th with similar sizes…and then the potential for a bigger, shoulder high+, NW’er around the 27-28th.

South Pacific
While the SPAC has been on the zonal side lately it hasn’t totally shut off swell production…we have a few small S and SW swells moving in over the next several days that will hold playful waves at the S facing and combo spots.

New S-SSW swell (180-200) peaks on Sunday the 20th and holds waves through the 21st. Another similar sized SSW swell (180-205) moves in on the 22nd and holds more waist-shoulder waves through the middle of next week.



Further out in the SPAC it looks like some new storm action pulling together around New Zealand that will poop (that’s right I said poop) out another SW swell (190-210) that will send more chest-shoulder high waves to the top spots around the 27-28th.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Currently we have TS Marty cruising about 200-300 miles SSW of the tip of Baja (about 700 miles SSE of Socal)…he is in our swell window but there is not much to like about him. He isn’t a very strong storm, his wind speeds (and directions) have been questionable, and his position isn’t that great. I don’t expect much, if any, rideable surf from Marty…just a slight increase energy from the SE that may help to prop up the better looking SPAC swells.





There is another tropical disturbance brewing closer to Mainland Mexico…but it is taking its time getting organized…something may spin up over the next couple of days, but it will still have some travel time to reach our swell window, so it looks like our chance for tropical swell is pretty slim at this point.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, September 21, 2009


Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/14/2009

Forecast Overview
Waves heights will slowly fade from the weekend but won’t drop too far thanks to a mix of new SW and new NW energy that moves in over the next couple of days. We can expect more new NW and SW energy to move in later this week and help keep playful waves at the exposed beaches through next weekend. Man I love Fall...

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
The NW swell (290-300) will be slowly winding down as it mixes with some SW swell (200-220) and some leftover tropical SW energy. The average spots will be in the waist-chest high range. The standout NW facing spots, as well as the best combo spots, will be in the waist-shoulder high...with a couple of rare plus sets showing at the top NW breaks during the low tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to variable-onshore for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.

Wednesday
Wave heights will sort of stabilize as we head into the middle of the week. New energy from both the NW and the SW move into to reinforce the fading swell from earlier in the week. Most spots will continue to see surf around waist high with some less consistent chest high sets. Standout breaks, again mostly the NW facing ones, but with a few of the better combo breaks mixed in as well, will be in the chest high range with some less consistent shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to variable-onshore for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.

Thursday
Overall size will drop a touch...but more NW energy (295-300) in the blend of local windswell and background NPAC energy will move in and continue to send in playful waves to the best exposed areas. Look for more knee-waist high surf at the average spots. Standouts will be more in the waist-chest high range...but the top NW facing spots will still have some rare shoulder high sets mixing in. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to variable-onshore for the morning. Winds will be mostly below 5 knots but there will be some slight bump at the more exposed areas. W winds 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Activity in the North Pacific is starting to pick back up...nothing all that great showing yet but there are a lot of good indicators of seeing a significant increase in WNW-NW swell. In the short-run we are going to see a steady, but steeply swell-angled, pulse of NW swell in the form of windswell and background NPAC energy...this will be arriving through the middle of the week, helping hold up the fading NW swell that hit this last weekend. It won’t be much bigger than shoulder high even at the top spots...but it will keep the “winter breaks from going flat.

Further out we are going to see another weak/moderate storm move under the Aleutians later this week that will push some waist-chest high+ NW swell (290-300) our way for the 19-20th. Check it out on this chart...(it is the broader low-pressure) under Alaska...



What really interests me on this chart...and the later parts of the forecast run is Typhoon Choi-wan. That storm is forecast to make a swing through the waters east of Japan and then go extra-tropical as it moves into the high-latitudes. Generally when this happens we see the storm track get very unstable and start to brew up some much more intense storms as the energy locked in the warm tropical low are released. I expect to see an increase in storm strength in the NPAC later this week...who knows we might see a better looking storm form up in a few days...

South Pacific



The SPAC continues to roll along...almost exactly how the forecast charts have been calling it. Storm action has been a bit on the zonal side...but there has still been enough fetch to kick out some rideable sized swells. We are going to see a mix of smaller, less consistent, SW swells for the next few days…and then a slightly better SSW swell (190-210) moving in around the 18-19th.

Over the next few days the SW swell (205-220) that peaked over the weekend will be fading out...but it won’t drop too far thanks to some reinforcement from the SW (200-220) that arrives with waist-chest high+ surf on the 15-16th.

A slightly stronger pulse of SW swell (190-220) moves in on the 19th and peaks into the 20th...this one will be good for chest-high surf at most of the S-SW facing spots and larger sets around shoulder high+ at the standout SW breaks. This will actually be followed by another pulse of SW energy (210-220) that fills in on the 22nd and holds into the 23rd before dropping...it doesn’t bring any more size but it will help string along the wave heights from the first swell a little longer.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
It is quiet down in the tropics all of a sudden...almost too quiet. OK it isn’t completely shut down but actual tropical storm activity has dropped off now that Linda has dissipated. There are a couple of areas that are worth keeping an eye on though...looks like a large areas of thunderstorms are forming just to the SSW of Central Mainland Mexico. The hurricane models are showing signs that the atmospheric conditions are improving and we might see these thunderstorms become more organized over the next couple of days...and that there is a chance that we could see a new tropical-depression or storm form later this week.






Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, September 17, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com