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Showing posts with label Long Range Forecast Update. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Long Range Forecast Update. Show all posts
Monday, September 6, 2010
Southern California Long-Range Forecast 09/06/10
Holy weaksauce Batman! Most of this week is going to be weak and textured…the combo of eddy and small S-SW swells will keep the surf in the “marginal” range through Thursday. Fortunately the weather and the swell start to slowly improve on Friday and will continue to get better through the weekend. Long-range is looking A LOT BETTER thanks to a re-energized South Pacific and a series of SSW-SW swells that are heading our way for the middle of September (and if the following storms can live up to the forecast model we would likely see at minimum playful swell holding onto decent size almost to the end of the month). Make sure to go to www.solspot.com to read the full forecast
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Southern California Long-Range Forecast 09/02/10
Guys...the long range forecast is up over at http://www.solspot.com/
you can go find it pretty easy on the homepage...or go directly to it here
http://surf.solspot.com/content/long-range-forecast/adam-wright/please-save-us-from-the-small-surf
you can go find it pretty easy on the homepage...or go directly to it here
http://surf.solspot.com/content/long-range-forecast/adam-wright/please-save-us-from-the-small-surf
Monday, August 30, 2010
Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/30/2010
The latest long-range surf forecast is up over at solspot.com...
Things look playful and clean for the next couple of days with weaker waves due by the end of the week.
Here is a link to the new forecast...
http://surf.solspot.com/content/long-range-forecast/adam-wright/weak-mix-of-small-southern-hemi-energy-and-local-windswell
Things look playful and clean for the next couple of days with weaker waves due by the end of the week.
Here is a link to the new forecast...
http://surf.solspot.com/content/long-range-forecast/adam-wright/weak-mix-of-small-southern-hemi-energy-and-local-windswell
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Southern California Long Range Surf Forecast 08/26/10
The surf will back down as we head into the weekend but another couple of pulses from the S and SW will keep the surf from dropping too fast. A little more windswell, and a touch of tropical swell from Hurricane Frank (the Tank), will help round things out. Overall expect smaller, but still potentially playful surf (if you bring the right gear, and attitude).
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday – (More surf!…wow! who would have thought?)
The S swell (180-190) fades on Friday but still conjures up some decent sized surf at the standout breaks. The average spots back more into the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high sets still showing at times. The standout S facing beaches and the top combo spots, still mostly in the OC, see some shoulder-head high surf with some occasionally bigger sets showing at the best breaks on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Winds are still looking a bit funky for Friday…clean(er) in the morning but unstable with onshore flow coming up pretty early. I wouldn’t wait too long to surf on Friday. It looks like onshore flow starting to push up the sea breeze around 10am…and then stronger onshore flow tapping out around 10-15 knots by late in the afternoon
Check out how the swell, wind, and tides, affects the different Southern California regions...(click on each one to get a sub-regional forecast...and if you click one of the "surf break" links, you can even get spot-specific winds and weather for each break)...Santa Barbara, Ventura, North LA, the South Bay, North Orange County, South Orange County, North San Diego, South San Diego.
Still just teasing....get the full forecast (and more frank the tank) at www.solspot.com
http://surf.solspot.com/content/solspot/adam-wright/waves-and-a-little-wind-hold-into-the-weekend-smaller-surf-on-tap-next-week
Monday, August 23, 2010
Southern California Long Range Surf Forecast 08/23/10
There will be a solid run of S and SW swell showing this week with good sized surf holding through Tuesday and into early Wednesday. The swell does eventually back down but expect plenty of rideable waves and mostly good conditions to hold through week and on into the weekend.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Tuesday – (Another S-swell comes in off the top ropes)
New S swell (180-190) peaks on Tuesday as it mixes with a bunch of leftover energy from the weekend and some building local windswell. Most S facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets mixing in on the lower tides. The standout S facing spots, mostly in Orange County (and a few other top summer breaks), will be in the shoulder-head high+ range with some sets going overhead to even a couple of feet overhead on those lower tides. It looks like there is enough windswell to keep some semi-corners at the beach breaks…but definitely count on the points and reefs to have the best shape. Winds/Weather: Winds look clean for the morning…mostly light/variable to light/offshore early…then building onshore flow by the afternoon.
Check out how the swell, wind, and tides, affects the different Southern California regions...(click on each one to get a sub-regional forecast...and if you click one of the "surf break" links, you can even get spot-specific winds and weather for each break)...Santa Barbara, Ventura, North LA, the South Bay, North Orange County, South Orange County, North San Diego, South San Diego.
This is still just the teaser...make sure to head on over to www.solspot.com to get the full long-range forecast.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/19/2010
Adam’s Long-Range Forecast - New swell cometh! (And maybe, just maybe, if we are really good he will bring a combo present along for the ride).
Short Range (next 4 days) sorry gang...you have to read the full forecast on www.solspot.com but I will give you Friday for a teaser.
Friday – (a little more size building in)
Wave heights will be on the way up on Friday as a new mix of S-SW swells start to strengthen…none of them are huge…but they are coming in from decent directions (175-215) and the blend of energy should add some consistency that we haven’t had over the last few days. Look for average S facing spots to be in the waist-chest high range. Standout S-SW breaks and good combo spots see some chest-shoulder high surf (and I wouldn’t even be surprised to see a bigger wave now and then on the lower tides). Winds/Weather: Overcast and slightly eddyish in the morning…look for light and variable winds for most areas with a touch of onshore S-SW winds at the really exposed spots. Overall it should be clean, but watch for areas of onshore texture at spots sensitive to the southerly winds.
you have to read the full forecast on www.solspot.com
Friday, August 13, 2010
Adam’s Long-Range Forecast - Small Southern Hemi mix and tiny windswell combo up as we head into the weekend.
Adam’s Long-Range Forecast - Small Southern Hemi mix and tiny windswell combo up as we head into the weekend. New S-SW swells start to increase size and consistency next week and we can expect some decent sized waves finally arriving by the following weekend…and likely holding almost all the way through the end of August. Oh and it is Friday the 13th today...so take things a little easy and see if you can dodge the bad-luck-dolphin.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday (the 13th…watch out for those dolphins)
A mix of overlapping S-SW swells (180-220) and some minor windswell will be on tap throughout Friday. The swell mix actually gets a little bit of a reinforcement, but it is on the tailing.....read the full forecast
http://surf.solspot.com/
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday (the 13th…watch out for those dolphins)
A mix of overlapping S-SW swells (180-220) and some minor windswell will be on tap throughout Friday. The swell mix actually gets a little bit of a reinforcement, but it is on the tailing.....read the full forecast
http://surf.solspot.com/
Monday, August 9, 2010
Southern California Long Range Surf Forecast 08/09/10
Adam’s Long-Range Forecast - The hodgepodge of overlapping S-SW swells and weak local windswell will continue to push through this week, sending in mostly small surf that is even more tide (and wind) sensitive than usual. Fortunately there are a few windows for waves and morning winds seem pretty manageable for the next few days. Looks like a good week to break out the small-wave boards and vintage death-logs.
To get the whole forecast head on over to www.solspot.com
or go straight to the forecast here
Adam's Long Range Surf Forecast
To get the whole forecast head on over to www.solspot.com
or go straight to the forecast here
Adam's Long Range Surf Forecast
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 2/04/2010
Forecast Overview
More W-NW swell arrives over the weekend (along with some stormy S winds and rain) setting up overhead+ surf at the well exposed spots as the swell mix peaks Sunday and into early Monday. More NW swell is on tap for early next week, but more storminess and more stormswell will be on tap for the second half of next week. Looks like a good-sized, possibly well-overhead, WNW-NW swell for Valentines Day weekend. (Happy V-day honey…I went on a surf trip! …uh surprise!).
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday
Friday will start on the slow side in the morning…we will see mostly leftover WNW energy, and a little local windswell, at most spots. Average WNW facing breaks will be in the knee-waist high range while the standout NW exposed spots will have some inconsistent chest-shoulder high sets still sneaking in. A new, stormy W-WNW swell (260-300) will start to arrive through the day, showing mostly in Santa Barbara and Ventura during actual daylight, and then filling in the more southern regions after dark. Shape doesn’t look that great for most areas on Friday thanks to steady S-SE winds…but not every spots is going to be blown out by those winds, so you might keep an eye on the protected spots as the new energy begins pushing in late in the day. Winds/Weather: Looks a bit stormy with S-SE winds 10-15 knots showing across the county for the morning and then gusts hitting up around 20-25+ knots for the afternoon. Showers are expected to push south through the day as well so expect a little more wet weather.
Saturday
The short-period W-WNW stormswell (260-300) will mix with the start of a new, longer-period WNW-NW swell (280-300) that begins filling in the SB/Ven areas through the afternoon and pushes down the coast to LA/OC/SD after sunset. Average spots will be in the chest-head high range on Saturday with some overhead sets mixing in at the top WNW-NW wind/stormswell spots. Santa Barbara and Ventura may have some bigger/punchier sets showing before sundown if the swell gets a chance to fill in a bit before sunset. Winds/Weather: Weather doesn’t look all that great…S winds 10-15 knots and rain on tap for the morning and NW winds 10-20 knots pushing in behind the front.
Sunday
The W-WNW storm-swell (260-300) and the new WNW-NW swell (280-300) will peak on Sunday...with the biggest surf likely arriving through the afternoon. Average W-WNW facing spots will be chest-head high with some overhead sets mixing in at times. Top WNW-NW facing spots will be head high to a couple of feet overhead with some sets going well-overhead at times. Winds/Weather: Weather looks a little better than Saturday but it will still be pretty unstable…current models are showing some N-NNW winds holding around 10-15 knots through the morning and then NW gusts around 20 knots by the afternoon. Neither of these directions are very good…but there is a chance of the winds being lighter or at least coming out of better direction is the storm front pushes through the area faster than the current forecast run is calling for.
Monday
The energy from the weekend, the W-NW storm/wind/and medium swell period mix will be backing down but another new NW swell (290-300) will be pushing in as they fade out…I am not expecting a tone of size or consistency out of this one but it will help keep us in rideable sizes. Look for chest-head high surf at the average WNW facing spots and some overhead+ sets still showing at the NW standouts, particularly down in San Diego. Winds/Weather: A lot depends on how fast the weekends craptacular weather moves out on Sat/Sun…the current forecast is showing for light and variable winds on tap for Monday morning…and then just moderate/mild WNW winds developing for the afternoon.
Long-Range
North Pacific
The NPAC continues to crank out storm after storm, lining up swell for the weekend, next week, and following weekend.
Our next round of WNW-NW energy is looking a bit stormy…forecasts are calling for another round of storms to start moving in late Friday and holding through the weekend. As a result we are going to have a mix of short-period W-WNW (260-300) and some longer-period WNW-NW energy (280-300) that will start filling on Saturday (Feb 6) and peaking Sunday…before fading on Monday. Check out the latest GOES satellite shot…
Further out we will have another, smaller but more organized, NW swell (290-300) that arrives on Monday and helps overlap the fading energy from the weekend. The new swell, along with cleaner conditions should help Monday be more of a surf day than we see Sat/Sun. Conditions are forecast to fall apart again (and bring in more short-period W-WNW energy) by Tues/Wed (Feb 9-10) as another storm front pushes more rain and S-SW winds through the region. I expect that this new storm swell will be good for more overhead surf at the well exposed spots…and will likely hold through Thursday and into Friday.
Even Further Out The big-ass North Pacific storm is still on the forecast charts and is still planning on sending a beefy WNW-NW swell to Hawaii around Feb 10-11th…check it out…
At this point it looks like the system will be another cranked up complex low-pressure…with the anchor low-pressure holding over the Aleutains, and a bunch of mid-latitude, extra-tropically enhanced, storms moving around the center. This, like I mentioned, will send a strong swell to Hawaii but it is also forecast to kick a good dose of energy our direction, with the new WNW-NW swell arriving around Feb 13-14. This one still has some development before the swell is in the water but the feature has been petty steady on the forecast models and it looks like we could see another round of well-overhead surf hitting the top breaks as the swell peaks over that weekend.
South Pacific
The SPAC is definitely starting to spin up some new activity…I have mentioned it in the last couple of forecasts...and the systems are finally in development, setting up some lovely fetch for us as I write this. Unfortunately we will still need to wait about a week for the swell to arrive, so don’t get super fired up yet. Between now and then we are going to see a mix of small background S-SW swells, none really over knee high+, that will get lost in the bigger shots of WNW-NW energy coming in.
Further out the extra-tropical mixing that I was looking for has finally managed to start setting up some SW swell for Socal...check out the next few images, and remember that they are “actual” measurements, not just the swell model.
As always a big thank to Mark at www.stormsurf.com for letting me poach some cool satellite data. (Make sure to visit his site when you get a chance or if you want to get the latest Jason-1 data).
30-40+ knot winds and 30-foot seas are good numbers…but not that good…particularly since the storm is a little shadowed by the South Pacific islands and is quite a ways away (around 5000-6000 miles off). The combo of distance and shadowing will shave some size off the swell…so at this point I am expecting chest-shoulder high SW swell at the average spots and some head high+ sets for the top breaks arriving around Feb 13-14. This storm still has another 24-36 hours of development time though…so I might get to add a little more size if it “pops” a little more.
Not much on tap in the forecast after the swell for Feb 13-14…but the general activity level of the SPAC is still pretty good...so I am expecting something new to start showing on the charts fairly soon…possibly setting up some more SSW-SW swell for around Feb 18-19.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, February 8th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
More W-NW swell arrives over the weekend (along with some stormy S winds and rain) setting up overhead+ surf at the well exposed spots as the swell mix peaks Sunday and into early Monday. More NW swell is on tap for early next week, but more storminess and more stormswell will be on tap for the second half of next week. Looks like a good-sized, possibly well-overhead, WNW-NW swell for Valentines Day weekend. (Happy V-day honey…I went on a surf trip! …uh surprise!).
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday
Friday will start on the slow side in the morning…we will see mostly leftover WNW energy, and a little local windswell, at most spots. Average WNW facing breaks will be in the knee-waist high range while the standout NW exposed spots will have some inconsistent chest-shoulder high sets still sneaking in. A new, stormy W-WNW swell (260-300) will start to arrive through the day, showing mostly in Santa Barbara and Ventura during actual daylight, and then filling in the more southern regions after dark. Shape doesn’t look that great for most areas on Friday thanks to steady S-SE winds…but not every spots is going to be blown out by those winds, so you might keep an eye on the protected spots as the new energy begins pushing in late in the day. Winds/Weather: Looks a bit stormy with S-SE winds 10-15 knots showing across the county for the morning and then gusts hitting up around 20-25+ knots for the afternoon. Showers are expected to push south through the day as well so expect a little more wet weather.
Saturday
The short-period W-WNW stormswell (260-300) will mix with the start of a new, longer-period WNW-NW swell (280-300) that begins filling in the SB/Ven areas through the afternoon and pushes down the coast to LA/OC/SD after sunset. Average spots will be in the chest-head high range on Saturday with some overhead sets mixing in at the top WNW-NW wind/stormswell spots. Santa Barbara and Ventura may have some bigger/punchier sets showing before sundown if the swell gets a chance to fill in a bit before sunset. Winds/Weather: Weather doesn’t look all that great…S winds 10-15 knots and rain on tap for the morning and NW winds 10-20 knots pushing in behind the front.
Sunday
The W-WNW storm-swell (260-300) and the new WNW-NW swell (280-300) will peak on Sunday...with the biggest surf likely arriving through the afternoon. Average W-WNW facing spots will be chest-head high with some overhead sets mixing in at times. Top WNW-NW facing spots will be head high to a couple of feet overhead with some sets going well-overhead at times. Winds/Weather: Weather looks a little better than Saturday but it will still be pretty unstable…current models are showing some N-NNW winds holding around 10-15 knots through the morning and then NW gusts around 20 knots by the afternoon. Neither of these directions are very good…but there is a chance of the winds being lighter or at least coming out of better direction is the storm front pushes through the area faster than the current forecast run is calling for.
Monday
The energy from the weekend, the W-NW storm/wind/and medium swell period mix will be backing down but another new NW swell (290-300) will be pushing in as they fade out…I am not expecting a tone of size or consistency out of this one but it will help keep us in rideable sizes. Look for chest-head high surf at the average WNW facing spots and some overhead+ sets still showing at the NW standouts, particularly down in San Diego. Winds/Weather: A lot depends on how fast the weekends craptacular weather moves out on Sat/Sun…the current forecast is showing for light and variable winds on tap for Monday morning…and then just moderate/mild WNW winds developing for the afternoon.
Long-Range
North Pacific
The NPAC continues to crank out storm after storm, lining up swell for the weekend, next week, and following weekend.
Our next round of WNW-NW energy is looking a bit stormy…forecasts are calling for another round of storms to start moving in late Friday and holding through the weekend. As a result we are going to have a mix of short-period W-WNW (260-300) and some longer-period WNW-NW energy (280-300) that will start filling on Saturday (Feb 6) and peaking Sunday…before fading on Monday. Check out the latest GOES satellite shot…
Further out we will have another, smaller but more organized, NW swell (290-300) that arrives on Monday and helps overlap the fading energy from the weekend. The new swell, along with cleaner conditions should help Monday be more of a surf day than we see Sat/Sun. Conditions are forecast to fall apart again (and bring in more short-period W-WNW energy) by Tues/Wed (Feb 9-10) as another storm front pushes more rain and S-SW winds through the region. I expect that this new storm swell will be good for more overhead surf at the well exposed spots…and will likely hold through Thursday and into Friday.
Even Further Out The big-ass North Pacific storm is still on the forecast charts and is still planning on sending a beefy WNW-NW swell to Hawaii around Feb 10-11th…check it out…
At this point it looks like the system will be another cranked up complex low-pressure…with the anchor low-pressure holding over the Aleutains, and a bunch of mid-latitude, extra-tropically enhanced, storms moving around the center. This, like I mentioned, will send a strong swell to Hawaii but it is also forecast to kick a good dose of energy our direction, with the new WNW-NW swell arriving around Feb 13-14. This one still has some development before the swell is in the water but the feature has been petty steady on the forecast models and it looks like we could see another round of well-overhead surf hitting the top breaks as the swell peaks over that weekend.
South Pacific
The SPAC is definitely starting to spin up some new activity…I have mentioned it in the last couple of forecasts...and the systems are finally in development, setting up some lovely fetch for us as I write this. Unfortunately we will still need to wait about a week for the swell to arrive, so don’t get super fired up yet. Between now and then we are going to see a mix of small background S-SW swells, none really over knee high+, that will get lost in the bigger shots of WNW-NW energy coming in.
Further out the extra-tropical mixing that I was looking for has finally managed to start setting up some SW swell for Socal...check out the next few images, and remember that they are “actual” measurements, not just the swell model.
As always a big thank to Mark at www.stormsurf.com for letting me poach some cool satellite data. (Make sure to visit his site when you get a chance or if you want to get the latest Jason-1 data).
30-40+ knot winds and 30-foot seas are good numbers…but not that good…particularly since the storm is a little shadowed by the South Pacific islands and is quite a ways away (around 5000-6000 miles off). The combo of distance and shadowing will shave some size off the swell…so at this point I am expecting chest-shoulder high SW swell at the average spots and some head high+ sets for the top breaks arriving around Feb 13-14. This storm still has another 24-36 hours of development time though…so I might get to add a little more size if it “pops” a little more.
Not much on tap in the forecast after the swell for Feb 13-14…but the general activity level of the SPAC is still pretty good...so I am expecting something new to start showing on the charts fairly soon…possibly setting up some more SSW-SW swell for around Feb 18-19.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, February 8th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
Monday, February 1, 2010
Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 2/01/2010
Forecast Overview
New WNW-NW swell starts to fill in slowly on Tuesday, peaks on Wednesday, and then fades later in the week. Another round of W-NW energy, and some more stormy weather, will push in on the weekend and hold more surf into early next week. Long-range charts are showing the potential for a bigger storm forming in a few days…and even the South Pacific is starting to get a little frisky.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Tuesday
Tuesday will start with mostly leftover WNW-NW swell and some background S-SSW swell but a new WNW-NW pulse (280-300) will be moving in slowly throughout the day and should be able to push in a few new waves by the end of the day (and even earlier up toward Ventura). Look for most average WNW facing breaks to see waist-chest high surf…standout NW breaks will be closer to shoulder high though the early morning. Things slow down again with the AM high tide but as the tide drops we should see more consistency and some bigger surf as the new WNW-NW’er fills in. I expect that the really exposed spots, mostly in Ventura, will have some head high+ sets showing before sunset. Winds/Weather: Winds look good for the morning…mostly light and variable to light ESE. Winds shift more S-SW onshore around 10-12 knots for the afternoon. Chance of light showers developing overnight into Wednesday.
Wednesday
The new WNW-NW swell will peak while weak S-SSW continues to drop off in the background. Most spots WNW facing spots will push back into the chest-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets showing on the lower tides. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will have shoulder-overhead surf with sets going a couple of feet+ overhead on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Winds will shift a touch more onshore on Wednesday...expect sort of light NW flow for the morning, likely below 10-knots, and even going light and variable in spots with some wind protection. NW winds 10-15+ knots move in during the afternoon.
Thursday
The WNW-NW swell (280-300) will drop in both size and swell period but will still push in some playful surf for the well exposed areas. Look for chest-shoulder high surf at the average WNW facing spots and some shoulder-head high surf at the better NW facing spots. Top NW spots down in Southern San Diego will see some more consistent overhead surf through the morning…losing some size by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: The winds switch around again as another cold front starts to move into the outer waters…weather looks dry at this point for Thursday…but winds will be pushing out of the SE for the morning around 10-12 knots and then building to about 10-15+ knots for the afternoon.
Friday
Looks a bit on the small side compared to earlier in the week…expect leftover WNW-NW swell with surf holding around waist-chest high for the average spots and just a few shoulder high sets showing at the standout NW breaks. Conditions won’t be the greatest thanks to increasingly stormy weather and winds out of the S-SE, but like the last couple of storms there will be a few protected spots that will stay surfable.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Still lots of action in the NPAC storm track…we have a decent WNW-NW swell lining up for midweek that will push in another around of overhead surf for the standout breaks as it peaks on Wednesday. Look for this swell to fade out slowly on Thursday and Friday.
Our next round of WNW-NW energy is looking a bit stormy…forecasts are calling for another round of storms to start moving in late Friday and holding through the weekend. As a result we are going to have a mix of short-period W-WNW (260-300) and some longer-period WNW-NW energy (280-300) that will start filling on Saturday (Feb 6) and peaking Sunday/Monday (Feb 7-8)…check out the GFS pressure chart…
And here is how those winds are setting up the new round of swell…
Weather doesn’t look very good for this one…but as a lot of you know…that doesn’t mean every spot is going to be completely trashed. We will have swell in the water…with the mix of W-NW energy likely going overhead at most of the WNW facing spots and sets going a couple of feet overhead at the standout NW breaks. It looks like S winds and rain as the swell peaks on Sunday, how bad the weather will actually be is still a little fuzzy so we will have to see how it shakes out over the next few days.
Further out…look at the very end of the forecast run and check out the red-blob that is forming over by Hawaii.
South Pacific
There has been some playful S-SSW swell showing for the last couple of days…not much more than chest high at the best spots but enough to combo up at the well exposed breaks. This little pulse of energy will fade slowly over the next few days but never really drop completely off. Don’t expect much surf coming off this swell by itself…likely it will be waist high and below at the pure S facing breaks…but it should continue to crease up the WNW energy at the better exposed spots.
Further out the fun little extra-tropical mixing that I saw on the charts last week is continuing to show in the forecast though the weather model is pushing the dates back a couple of days. Much like I expected this mixing is going to help set up a decent little shot of fetch in the next couple of days that will push some new SW swell (190-215) our direction…
If it can live up to this forecast it looks like we would start to see an increase in SW energy around Feb 11-12 (this is coming out of the precursor to the actual storm so it won’t be very big)…and then the actual peak of this new energy hitting more on Feb 13-15 (Valentines combo swell anyone…ah you shouldn’t have).
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, February 4th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
New WNW-NW swell starts to fill in slowly on Tuesday, peaks on Wednesday, and then fades later in the week. Another round of W-NW energy, and some more stormy weather, will push in on the weekend and hold more surf into early next week. Long-range charts are showing the potential for a bigger storm forming in a few days…and even the South Pacific is starting to get a little frisky.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Tuesday
Tuesday will start with mostly leftover WNW-NW swell and some background S-SSW swell but a new WNW-NW pulse (280-300) will be moving in slowly throughout the day and should be able to push in a few new waves by the end of the day (and even earlier up toward Ventura). Look for most average WNW facing breaks to see waist-chest high surf…standout NW breaks will be closer to shoulder high though the early morning. Things slow down again with the AM high tide but as the tide drops we should see more consistency and some bigger surf as the new WNW-NW’er fills in. I expect that the really exposed spots, mostly in Ventura, will have some head high+ sets showing before sunset. Winds/Weather: Winds look good for the morning…mostly light and variable to light ESE. Winds shift more S-SW onshore around 10-12 knots for the afternoon. Chance of light showers developing overnight into Wednesday.
Wednesday
The new WNW-NW swell will peak while weak S-SSW continues to drop off in the background. Most spots WNW facing spots will push back into the chest-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets showing on the lower tides. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will have shoulder-overhead surf with sets going a couple of feet+ overhead on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Winds will shift a touch more onshore on Wednesday...expect sort of light NW flow for the morning, likely below 10-knots, and even going light and variable in spots with some wind protection. NW winds 10-15+ knots move in during the afternoon.
Thursday
The WNW-NW swell (280-300) will drop in both size and swell period but will still push in some playful surf for the well exposed areas. Look for chest-shoulder high surf at the average WNW facing spots and some shoulder-head high surf at the better NW facing spots. Top NW spots down in Southern San Diego will see some more consistent overhead surf through the morning…losing some size by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: The winds switch around again as another cold front starts to move into the outer waters…weather looks dry at this point for Thursday…but winds will be pushing out of the SE for the morning around 10-12 knots and then building to about 10-15+ knots for the afternoon.
Friday
Looks a bit on the small side compared to earlier in the week…expect leftover WNW-NW swell with surf holding around waist-chest high for the average spots and just a few shoulder high sets showing at the standout NW breaks. Conditions won’t be the greatest thanks to increasingly stormy weather and winds out of the S-SE, but like the last couple of storms there will be a few protected spots that will stay surfable.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Still lots of action in the NPAC storm track…we have a decent WNW-NW swell lining up for midweek that will push in another around of overhead surf for the standout breaks as it peaks on Wednesday. Look for this swell to fade out slowly on Thursday and Friday.
Our next round of WNW-NW energy is looking a bit stormy…forecasts are calling for another round of storms to start moving in late Friday and holding through the weekend. As a result we are going to have a mix of short-period W-WNW (260-300) and some longer-period WNW-NW energy (280-300) that will start filling on Saturday (Feb 6) and peaking Sunday/Monday (Feb 7-8)…check out the GFS pressure chart…
And here is how those winds are setting up the new round of swell…
Weather doesn’t look very good for this one…but as a lot of you know…that doesn’t mean every spot is going to be completely trashed. We will have swell in the water…with the mix of W-NW energy likely going overhead at most of the WNW facing spots and sets going a couple of feet overhead at the standout NW breaks. It looks like S winds and rain as the swell peaks on Sunday, how bad the weather will actually be is still a little fuzzy so we will have to see how it shakes out over the next few days.
Further out…look at the very end of the forecast run and check out the red-blob that is forming over by Hawaii.
South Pacific
There has been some playful S-SSW swell showing for the last couple of days…not much more than chest high at the best spots but enough to combo up at the well exposed breaks. This little pulse of energy will fade slowly over the next few days but never really drop completely off. Don’t expect much surf coming off this swell by itself…likely it will be waist high and below at the pure S facing breaks…but it should continue to crease up the WNW energy at the better exposed spots.
Further out the fun little extra-tropical mixing that I saw on the charts last week is continuing to show in the forecast though the weather model is pushing the dates back a couple of days. Much like I expected this mixing is going to help set up a decent little shot of fetch in the next couple of days that will push some new SW swell (190-215) our direction…
If it can live up to this forecast it looks like we would start to see an increase in SW energy around Feb 11-12 (this is coming out of the precursor to the actual storm so it won’t be very big)…and then the actual peak of this new energy hitting more on Feb 13-15 (Valentines combo swell anyone…ah you shouldn’t have).
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, February 4th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 1/28/2010
Forecast Overview
Look for mostly rideable leftovers on Friday (after the FAT morning tide drops off). New WNW-NW swell fills in through Friday afternoon and peaks with overhead surf at the top spots over the weekend. More WNW-NW swell heading for next week and better morning tides as well...stupid tides.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday
Expect a sloooooooow morning…that stupid morning high tide will continue to steamroll most of our surf. Buried somewhere under the tide we will have a mix of leftover WNW-NW swell (280-300) and some smaller S-SSW swell (180-200). Once we have the extra water drain out…most spots will have knee-waist high waves with some chest high sets. The standout NW breaks and the good combo spots will have some shoulder high sets. A new WNW-NW swell (280-300) starts to move in with long-period energy throughout the 2nd half of the day…possibly getting some new waves into Ventura (and Santa Barbara but not as much thanks to the longer-periods)…I wouldn’t be surprised to see some head high and overhead sets coming through in those areas before sundown. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable morning winds, even a little offshore at some of the better positioned breaks. Expect W-NW winds 10-15 knots coming onshore through mid-afternoon.
Saturday
The new WNW-NW swell (280-300) will peak while the S-SSW swell fades, there will be a lot more rideable waves…but we still have to get through another fat 6.6’ high morning tide (peaks around 8:30am) to see the biggest and most consistent surf. Once the tide has balanced out we can expect the average WNW facing spots and better combo breaks to see some chest-head high surf. Standout WNW-NW spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will have shoulder-overhead surf with some sets going a couple of feet overhead, and probably a few bigger waves mixing it up now and then. Winds/Weather: Winds look light on Saturday but they have a little more onshore flavor to them. Look for mostly light and variable to lightly onshore textured in the AM…and then more WNW-NW 10-15+ knots by the afternoon.
Sunday
The WNW-NW swell (280-300) will hold plenty of energy into Sunday but the S-SSW pulse will be on its last legs. Again that stupid tide will screw up the morning conditions/shape, but there will be some spots that can muscle through the 6’+ high…not many, but a few. By the time the tide drops we will be back into chest-head high surf at most WNW facing spots. Standout NW breaks…again in the usual good winter areas…will have consistent shoulder-head high+ surf with sets still going a couple of feet overhead at the best breaks. Winds/Weather: Winds improve again as the little front that passed over on Saturday moves out. Look for light offshore flow for most areas with some moderate offshore flow for the areas with passes and canyons. Winds go onshore out of the WNW around 10 knots for the afternoon but will slow down again near sundown.
Monday
The mix of WNW-NW swell drops off on Monday but we will still have rideable surf at most spots…there is even another little shot of S-SSW swell that fills in through the background. More tide problems early…but the peak of the high is around 10am…so there might be a little more of an early morning window for the dawn-patrol guys. Look for more chest-shoulder high surf at the average WNW spots. Standout breaks see some head high sets…maybe a few bigger sets showing at the best spots that like the shorter periods in the tail end of the swell.
Long-Range
North Pacific
This has definitely been a good winter so far (well other than having Mother Nature try to wash away Socal)…and this weekend will continue the streak of swell action. New WNW-NW swell (280-300) moves in later on Friday and peaks with overhead+ surf at the standout breaks over the weekend…check out the wavewatchIII model for this storm as it sets up the swell.
The storm isn’t crazy huge but it has had a good track across the mid-latitudes, and the fetch has been pretty steady with 35-40+ knots of wind…even some gusts around 50-knots, which helps put a little more pep into the swell. Overall this looks like another pretty fun looking swell…the angle is a little steeper than the last couple of swells we had so if you are looking for bigger waves you are going to want to stick to the NW facing standouts.
Further Out the storm track stays pretty active in the forecast run…we actually have a new storm that is already forming to the north of Hawaii and it is forecast to push toward the West Coast setting up another round of WNW-NW swell that starts arriving late on Tuesday (Feb 2) and peaks more through Wednesday/Thursday (Feb 3-4). This one looks good for more chest-head high surf at most spots…and a little overhead at the standouts.
Even Further out the weather/wind models are calling for another storm to form up just off the California coast…possibly sending in another stormy W-WNW swell for Friday/Saturday Feb 5-6th. This one is a long ways from forming but it will be worth keeping an eye on.
South Pacific
Still some minor activity down in the South Pacific…just some weak pulses of S-SSW swell that arrive on Monday Feb 1 and then sort of waffle on and off as following pulses try to sneak in after it. Overall none of it looks much bigger than knee-waist high at the top breaks…hopefully there will be enough energy to cross up the WNW-NW energy at the good combo spots.
Further out I am starting to see some better signs of life in the SPAC storm-track in the long-range forecast. The most notable is a strong tropical/sub-tropical system that makes a fast jump into the colder latitudes just south of Tahiti in about 5 days…this is the sort of mixing that helps spark up bigger storms…and even though the best part of this storm is forecast to move away from up it looks like it might set up a better SSW swell for around the 10-11th of Feb…stay tuned.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, February 1st, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
Look for mostly rideable leftovers on Friday (after the FAT morning tide drops off). New WNW-NW swell fills in through Friday afternoon and peaks with overhead surf at the top spots over the weekend. More WNW-NW swell heading for next week and better morning tides as well...stupid tides.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday
Expect a sloooooooow morning…that stupid morning high tide will continue to steamroll most of our surf. Buried somewhere under the tide we will have a mix of leftover WNW-NW swell (280-300) and some smaller S-SSW swell (180-200). Once we have the extra water drain out…most spots will have knee-waist high waves with some chest high sets. The standout NW breaks and the good combo spots will have some shoulder high sets. A new WNW-NW swell (280-300) starts to move in with long-period energy throughout the 2nd half of the day…possibly getting some new waves into Ventura (and Santa Barbara but not as much thanks to the longer-periods)…I wouldn’t be surprised to see some head high and overhead sets coming through in those areas before sundown. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable morning winds, even a little offshore at some of the better positioned breaks. Expect W-NW winds 10-15 knots coming onshore through mid-afternoon.
Saturday
The new WNW-NW swell (280-300) will peak while the S-SSW swell fades, there will be a lot more rideable waves…but we still have to get through another fat 6.6’ high morning tide (peaks around 8:30am) to see the biggest and most consistent surf. Once the tide has balanced out we can expect the average WNW facing spots and better combo breaks to see some chest-head high surf. Standout WNW-NW spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will have shoulder-overhead surf with some sets going a couple of feet overhead, and probably a few bigger waves mixing it up now and then. Winds/Weather: Winds look light on Saturday but they have a little more onshore flavor to them. Look for mostly light and variable to lightly onshore textured in the AM…and then more WNW-NW 10-15+ knots by the afternoon.
Sunday
The WNW-NW swell (280-300) will hold plenty of energy into Sunday but the S-SSW pulse will be on its last legs. Again that stupid tide will screw up the morning conditions/shape, but there will be some spots that can muscle through the 6’+ high…not many, but a few. By the time the tide drops we will be back into chest-head high surf at most WNW facing spots. Standout NW breaks…again in the usual good winter areas…will have consistent shoulder-head high+ surf with sets still going a couple of feet overhead at the best breaks. Winds/Weather: Winds improve again as the little front that passed over on Saturday moves out. Look for light offshore flow for most areas with some moderate offshore flow for the areas with passes and canyons. Winds go onshore out of the WNW around 10 knots for the afternoon but will slow down again near sundown.
Monday
The mix of WNW-NW swell drops off on Monday but we will still have rideable surf at most spots…there is even another little shot of S-SSW swell that fills in through the background. More tide problems early…but the peak of the high is around 10am…so there might be a little more of an early morning window for the dawn-patrol guys. Look for more chest-shoulder high surf at the average WNW spots. Standout breaks see some head high sets…maybe a few bigger sets showing at the best spots that like the shorter periods in the tail end of the swell.
Long-Range
North Pacific
This has definitely been a good winter so far (well other than having Mother Nature try to wash away Socal)…and this weekend will continue the streak of swell action. New WNW-NW swell (280-300) moves in later on Friday and peaks with overhead+ surf at the standout breaks over the weekend…check out the wavewatchIII model for this storm as it sets up the swell.
The storm isn’t crazy huge but it has had a good track across the mid-latitudes, and the fetch has been pretty steady with 35-40+ knots of wind…even some gusts around 50-knots, which helps put a little more pep into the swell. Overall this looks like another pretty fun looking swell…the angle is a little steeper than the last couple of swells we had so if you are looking for bigger waves you are going to want to stick to the NW facing standouts.
Further Out the storm track stays pretty active in the forecast run…we actually have a new storm that is already forming to the north of Hawaii and it is forecast to push toward the West Coast setting up another round of WNW-NW swell that starts arriving late on Tuesday (Feb 2) and peaks more through Wednesday/Thursday (Feb 3-4). This one looks good for more chest-head high surf at most spots…and a little overhead at the standouts.
Even Further out the weather/wind models are calling for another storm to form up just off the California coast…possibly sending in another stormy W-WNW swell for Friday/Saturday Feb 5-6th. This one is a long ways from forming but it will be worth keeping an eye on.
South Pacific
Still some minor activity down in the South Pacific…just some weak pulses of S-SSW swell that arrive on Monday Feb 1 and then sort of waffle on and off as following pulses try to sneak in after it. Overall none of it looks much bigger than knee-waist high at the top breaks…hopefully there will be enough energy to cross up the WNW-NW energy at the good combo spots.
Further out I am starting to see some better signs of life in the SPAC storm-track in the long-range forecast. The most notable is a strong tropical/sub-tropical system that makes a fast jump into the colder latitudes just south of Tahiti in about 5 days…this is the sort of mixing that helps spark up bigger storms…and even though the best part of this storm is forecast to move away from up it looks like it might set up a better SSW swell for around the 10-11th of Feb…stay tuned.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, February 1st, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
Monday, January 25, 2010
Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 1/25/2010
Forecast Overview
New WNW-NW swell moves in on Tuesday and brings a little more rain and S-SE winds to Socal. The weather moves out on Wednesday (though the winds shift a little more onshore) and the WNW-NW swell holds. Expect fading WNW-NW energy to mix with more S-SSW swell by Thursday and into early Friday. Another overhead WNW-NW swell moves in late Friday and peaks over the weekend.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Tuesday
New WNW-NW swell (275-300) moves in on Tuesday and mixes with some building S-SW windswell and a some background S-SSW energy (180-210). Most W facing breaks, and the average combo spots, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets mixing in at times. The standout WNW-NW facing breaks, as well as the excellent W-NW combo breaks, will see consistent shoulder-overhead surf with sets going a couple of feet+ overhead. Shape will be a little soft in the morning thanks to an early high tide…but look for more size and consistency as the tide backs down. Winds/Weather: S-SE winds 10-15+ knots on tap for the morning…increasing clouds and a chance of rain by the middle of the day. S-SSW winds 10-20 knots are expected by the afternoon.
Wednesday
The mix of WNW-NW swell (275-300) and the background southerly energy will hold…still a little soft during the morning…but steady at the exposed areas. Look for more chest-head high surf at the average W facing breaks and some overhead+ sets showing at the standout WNW-NW facing spots. Shape will be suspect due to onshore winds…but a few areas look like they will be light enough to have some fun. Winds/Weather: Light W winds around 10-12 knots on tap for the morning. W-WNW winds 10-15+ knots move in through the afternoon but may lighten up a touch near the end of the day.
Thursday
Looks like a good surf day…the WNW-NW swell (280-300) will be backing off but still holding enough energy to keep rideable waves at the exposed spots. S swell (180-200) will get a new push of energy, enough to make a noticeable difference in size at the S-facing spots. Look for the average spots to hold around chest-shoulder high. Standout WNW/S swell combo spots will be in the chest-head high range with a few overhead sets mixing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to light offshore winds on tap for the morning and mostly dry clean conditions for all areas. Look for variable onshore flow around 10-12 knots by the afternoon.
Friday
Starts off with mostly leftovers from the WNW and slowly fading S swell (180-200). Most breaks will back into the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high+ sets showing at the better combo spots. By the afternoon a new WNW-NW swell (280-300) begins arriving with some long-period energy (around the 18-20 second range)…it won’t show a ton of new surf before sundown but it will help to increase size and consistency up around Ventura (and the spots in Santa Barbara that like longer-periods…not that there are many of them). At this point it looks like the peak of this new WNW-NW swell will arrive on Saturday.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Still plenty of activity showing in the North Pacific…though compared to that last week it seems like the ocean is on “mute” or something. The current set up in the NPAC is actually a bit similar to what we had last week but with a lot less intensity. There is still a complex low-pressure holding position in the far north portion of the Gulf of Alaska…and there are still storms moving through the mid-latitudes on the complex-low merry-go-round. These mid-latitude systems are the ones setting up our various swells this week. Check out the Visible Satellite image from NOAA/GOES…
The storm that set up the swell for Tuesday is just moving through the waters off the West Coast and will pass part of its front over the region before heading off to the NE. There is a second embedded front close on its heels but it will just help to reinforce the first WNW-NW swell into Wednesday. Further off to the West you can see a much more intense low-pressure forming to the N of Hawaii. This one is forecast to pull into a better position in our swell window over the next 48 hours…
…setting up a decent WNW-NW swell (280-300) that arrives later on Friday…
…that eventually peaks on Saturday with surf in the shoulder-head high+ range at the average W facing breaks and sets going a couple to a few feet overhead at the top spots. This swell will be a lot cleaner than the ones we saw this last weekend (and the one coming in on Tuesday) since the storm sits a little further off the coast and lets the swell groom out some of the shorter-period fluff.
Further out the charts continue to be pretty active…the extreme long-range GFS charts have a couple more storms forming in about 5-6 days that, if they pull together, will have another round or two of WNW-NW swell heading our way for the first couple days of February.
South Pacific
Finally starting to see a little sign of life down in the SPAC…there has been a moderate/mild storm hanging down off Antarctica due south of Socal over the last couple of days. It hasn’t done anything super impressive, winds have held around 30-35 knots, but it has held semi-stationary with just a touch of S-to-N movement that pushed the winds in our direction. We can expect a small pulse of S swell (180-190) starting to show on Tuesday (Jan 26) and then a slightly stronger pulse of S energy (175-190) pushing in around Wednesday (Jan 27).
Don’t expect much more than chest high+ from these guys…but since the WNW swell will be more manageable around that time…we might see a few fun combo peaks starting to slip through.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, January 28th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
New WNW-NW swell moves in on Tuesday and brings a little more rain and S-SE winds to Socal. The weather moves out on Wednesday (though the winds shift a little more onshore) and the WNW-NW swell holds. Expect fading WNW-NW energy to mix with more S-SSW swell by Thursday and into early Friday. Another overhead WNW-NW swell moves in late Friday and peaks over the weekend.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Tuesday
New WNW-NW swell (275-300) moves in on Tuesday and mixes with some building S-SW windswell and a some background S-SSW energy (180-210). Most W facing breaks, and the average combo spots, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets mixing in at times. The standout WNW-NW facing breaks, as well as the excellent W-NW combo breaks, will see consistent shoulder-overhead surf with sets going a couple of feet+ overhead. Shape will be a little soft in the morning thanks to an early high tide…but look for more size and consistency as the tide backs down. Winds/Weather: S-SE winds 10-15+ knots on tap for the morning…increasing clouds and a chance of rain by the middle of the day. S-SSW winds 10-20 knots are expected by the afternoon.
Wednesday
The mix of WNW-NW swell (275-300) and the background southerly energy will hold…still a little soft during the morning…but steady at the exposed areas. Look for more chest-head high surf at the average W facing breaks and some overhead+ sets showing at the standout WNW-NW facing spots. Shape will be suspect due to onshore winds…but a few areas look like they will be light enough to have some fun. Winds/Weather: Light W winds around 10-12 knots on tap for the morning. W-WNW winds 10-15+ knots move in through the afternoon but may lighten up a touch near the end of the day.
Thursday
Looks like a good surf day…the WNW-NW swell (280-300) will be backing off but still holding enough energy to keep rideable waves at the exposed spots. S swell (180-200) will get a new push of energy, enough to make a noticeable difference in size at the S-facing spots. Look for the average spots to hold around chest-shoulder high. Standout WNW/S swell combo spots will be in the chest-head high range with a few overhead sets mixing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to light offshore winds on tap for the morning and mostly dry clean conditions for all areas. Look for variable onshore flow around 10-12 knots by the afternoon.
Friday
Starts off with mostly leftovers from the WNW and slowly fading S swell (180-200). Most breaks will back into the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high+ sets showing at the better combo spots. By the afternoon a new WNW-NW swell (280-300) begins arriving with some long-period energy (around the 18-20 second range)…it won’t show a ton of new surf before sundown but it will help to increase size and consistency up around Ventura (and the spots in Santa Barbara that like longer-periods…not that there are many of them). At this point it looks like the peak of this new WNW-NW swell will arrive on Saturday.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Still plenty of activity showing in the North Pacific…though compared to that last week it seems like the ocean is on “mute” or something. The current set up in the NPAC is actually a bit similar to what we had last week but with a lot less intensity. There is still a complex low-pressure holding position in the far north portion of the Gulf of Alaska…and there are still storms moving through the mid-latitudes on the complex-low merry-go-round. These mid-latitude systems are the ones setting up our various swells this week. Check out the Visible Satellite image from NOAA/GOES…
The storm that set up the swell for Tuesday is just moving through the waters off the West Coast and will pass part of its front over the region before heading off to the NE. There is a second embedded front close on its heels but it will just help to reinforce the first WNW-NW swell into Wednesday. Further off to the West you can see a much more intense low-pressure forming to the N of Hawaii. This one is forecast to pull into a better position in our swell window over the next 48 hours…
…setting up a decent WNW-NW swell (280-300) that arrives later on Friday…
…that eventually peaks on Saturday with surf in the shoulder-head high+ range at the average W facing breaks and sets going a couple to a few feet overhead at the top spots. This swell will be a lot cleaner than the ones we saw this last weekend (and the one coming in on Tuesday) since the storm sits a little further off the coast and lets the swell groom out some of the shorter-period fluff.
Further out the charts continue to be pretty active…the extreme long-range GFS charts have a couple more storms forming in about 5-6 days that, if they pull together, will have another round or two of WNW-NW swell heading our way for the first couple days of February.
South Pacific
Finally starting to see a little sign of life down in the SPAC…there has been a moderate/mild storm hanging down off Antarctica due south of Socal over the last couple of days. It hasn’t done anything super impressive, winds have held around 30-35 knots, but it has held semi-stationary with just a touch of S-to-N movement that pushed the winds in our direction. We can expect a small pulse of S swell (180-190) starting to show on Tuesday (Jan 26) and then a slightly stronger pulse of S energy (175-190) pushing in around Wednesday (Jan 27).
Don’t expect much more than chest high+ from these guys…but since the WNW swell will be more manageable around that time…we might see a few fun combo peaks starting to slip through.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, January 28th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 1/21/2010
Forecast Overview
Supersize W-WNW swell peaks on Friday and holds Saturday before starting to slowly fade as we move into next week. The weather finally breaks by Friday night, drying up slightly but staying sort of onshore windy on Saturday. Sunday looks significantly cleaner…and a lot more manageable as the swell drops. More WNW swell, and some weak S swells, will be on tap through next week.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday
A massive lump of W-WNW swell hits on Friday…for areas like San Diego and the South Bay it will likely be the biggest that it has been all week (oddly Ventura will be about the same as the last couple of days due to shadowing from the nearshore islands). Look for pretty much any spot that has W exposure to be running well-overhead. Top W-WNW facing spots, like SD and the South Bay, will be double-triple overhead pretty consistently and we can expect some bigger sets lurking around through the morning as the swell peaks. Winds/Weather: Winds don’t look very good for this one…current models are looking for SW-W winds 15-20 knots through the morning. Those winds shift more W-NW around 10-15+ knots for the afternoon. Rain is expected to continue throughout the day.
Saturday
Still lots of swell in the water on Saturday but we will be moving past the peak of the swell. The weather starts to break too…not enough to clean things up, but at least we will start to dry out. Still expect well-overhead surf for all average W-WNW spots. Standout WNW breaks, again in the South Bay and San Diego, can expect more double-overhead+ surf with some sets still nearing that triple-overhead range. There definitely will be plenty of water still moving around. Winds/Weather: NW winds develop behind the last of this storm…so it won’t clean up all that much on Saturday. Look for WNW-NW winds around 10-15 knots for the morning with some stronger gusts around Santa Barbara and Ventura. 10-15+ knot winds continue out of the W-NW for the afternoon.
Sunday
We will finally see a significant shift in conditions as well as a major drop in swell-size. Areas that were fairly shadowed from the full shot of W-WNW energy, like most of Orange County, Santa Barbara, and most of North LA, will drop off the quickest…those areas can expect consistent surf in the shoulder-head high range at the average W-WNW facing breaks. Standout breaks in those areas will still pull in some overhead+ sets. Better exposed spots in San Diego, Ventura, and the South Bay, will be running consistently overhead+ with sets still going a few feet+ overhead, particularly through the morning. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds through the morning…even some light offshore flow at times. Winds stay light…sort of variable below 10 knots through the afternoon. We will also have sunny skies and a chance to dry out a bit. Keep in mind that the water quality will continue to be very poor thanks to all that rain…and that it may need a couple more dry days to improve.
Monday
We will have a mix of leftover W-WNW swell from the weekend…and another pulse of W-WNW swell (275-300) coming out of a storm hanging just off the California Coast. There will also be a little more S-SW swell from the Southern Hemi, but it will mostly get lost in the more dominant WNW energy. Look for the average exposed spots to hold around chest-head high with some less consistent overhead sets. Standout WNW-NW spots will be going shoulder-overhead with some sets still reaching a couple of feet overhead at times. Weather looks OK for the morning but yet another storm is expected to start to arrive later in the afternoon…likely bringing a few showers and S winds by the evening and holding overnight into Tuesday.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Like I said in the short-range part of the forecast…a large W-WNW swell hits the coast on Friday and holds into Saturday before starting to drop off on Sunday, and since this bad-boy had plenty of size/duration, we can expect energy from this one to linger through at least the first part of next week. Check out the WINDSAT pass of this part of the storm while it was still a ways off our coast.
We also have another storm setting up in the mid-latitudes, just south of the Gulf of Alaska…this new storm will set up more WNW swell (275-300) that will arrive later on Monday (Jan 25) and hold through Tuesday (Jan 26)…possibly bringing some rain and S winds as well. This one, since it will be combo-ing up with the leftovers from the weekend, will help to push the surf back into the shoulder-overhead range for most exposed breaks and sets going a couple of feet+ overhead at the standouts. This swell will fade out on Wednesday while conditions improve…despite the dropping swell we can expect plenty of waves through mid-week. Check out the pressure chart on this one…as you can see it is quite a bit smaller than the previous storm.
Further out there is more activity starting to brew up just to the NW of Hawaii…this is forecast to become more organized as we move through the weekend…possibly setting up more WNW swell for around the 28th…and maybe more weather as well…we will have to keep an eye on it.
South Pacific
Finally starting to see a little sign of life down in the SPAC…there has been a moderate/mild storm hanging down off Antarctica due south of Socal over the last couple of days. It hasn’t done anything super impressive, winds have held around 30-35 knots, but it has held semi-stationary with just a touch of S-to-N movement that pushed the winds in our direction. We can expect a small pulse of S swell (180-190) starting to show on Monday-Tuesday (Jan 25-26) and then a slightly stronger pulse of S energy (175-190) pushing in around Wednesday (Jan 27).
Don’t expect much more than chest high from these guys…but since the WNW swell will be more manageable around that time…we might see a few fun combo peaks starting to slip through.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, January 25th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
Supersize W-WNW swell peaks on Friday and holds Saturday before starting to slowly fade as we move into next week. The weather finally breaks by Friday night, drying up slightly but staying sort of onshore windy on Saturday. Sunday looks significantly cleaner…and a lot more manageable as the swell drops. More WNW swell, and some weak S swells, will be on tap through next week.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday
A massive lump of W-WNW swell hits on Friday…for areas like San Diego and the South Bay it will likely be the biggest that it has been all week (oddly Ventura will be about the same as the last couple of days due to shadowing from the nearshore islands). Look for pretty much any spot that has W exposure to be running well-overhead. Top W-WNW facing spots, like SD and the South Bay, will be double-triple overhead pretty consistently and we can expect some bigger sets lurking around through the morning as the swell peaks. Winds/Weather: Winds don’t look very good for this one…current models are looking for SW-W winds 15-20 knots through the morning. Those winds shift more W-NW around 10-15+ knots for the afternoon. Rain is expected to continue throughout the day.
Saturday
Still lots of swell in the water on Saturday but we will be moving past the peak of the swell. The weather starts to break too…not enough to clean things up, but at least we will start to dry out. Still expect well-overhead surf for all average W-WNW spots. Standout WNW breaks, again in the South Bay and San Diego, can expect more double-overhead+ surf with some sets still nearing that triple-overhead range. There definitely will be plenty of water still moving around. Winds/Weather: NW winds develop behind the last of this storm…so it won’t clean up all that much on Saturday. Look for WNW-NW winds around 10-15 knots for the morning with some stronger gusts around Santa Barbara and Ventura. 10-15+ knot winds continue out of the W-NW for the afternoon.
Sunday
We will finally see a significant shift in conditions as well as a major drop in swell-size. Areas that were fairly shadowed from the full shot of W-WNW energy, like most of Orange County, Santa Barbara, and most of North LA, will drop off the quickest…those areas can expect consistent surf in the shoulder-head high range at the average W-WNW facing breaks. Standout breaks in those areas will still pull in some overhead+ sets. Better exposed spots in San Diego, Ventura, and the South Bay, will be running consistently overhead+ with sets still going a few feet+ overhead, particularly through the morning. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds through the morning…even some light offshore flow at times. Winds stay light…sort of variable below 10 knots through the afternoon. We will also have sunny skies and a chance to dry out a bit. Keep in mind that the water quality will continue to be very poor thanks to all that rain…and that it may need a couple more dry days to improve.
Monday
We will have a mix of leftover W-WNW swell from the weekend…and another pulse of W-WNW swell (275-300) coming out of a storm hanging just off the California Coast. There will also be a little more S-SW swell from the Southern Hemi, but it will mostly get lost in the more dominant WNW energy. Look for the average exposed spots to hold around chest-head high with some less consistent overhead sets. Standout WNW-NW spots will be going shoulder-overhead with some sets still reaching a couple of feet overhead at times. Weather looks OK for the morning but yet another storm is expected to start to arrive later in the afternoon…likely bringing a few showers and S winds by the evening and holding overnight into Tuesday.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Like I said in the short-range part of the forecast…a large W-WNW swell hits the coast on Friday and holds into Saturday before starting to drop off on Sunday, and since this bad-boy had plenty of size/duration, we can expect energy from this one to linger through at least the first part of next week. Check out the WINDSAT pass of this part of the storm while it was still a ways off our coast.
We also have another storm setting up in the mid-latitudes, just south of the Gulf of Alaska…this new storm will set up more WNW swell (275-300) that will arrive later on Monday (Jan 25) and hold through Tuesday (Jan 26)…possibly bringing some rain and S winds as well. This one, since it will be combo-ing up with the leftovers from the weekend, will help to push the surf back into the shoulder-overhead range for most exposed breaks and sets going a couple of feet+ overhead at the standouts. This swell will fade out on Wednesday while conditions improve…despite the dropping swell we can expect plenty of waves through mid-week. Check out the pressure chart on this one…as you can see it is quite a bit smaller than the previous storm.
Further out there is more activity starting to brew up just to the NW of Hawaii…this is forecast to become more organized as we move through the weekend…possibly setting up more WNW swell for around the 28th…and maybe more weather as well…we will have to keep an eye on it.
South Pacific
Finally starting to see a little sign of life down in the SPAC…there has been a moderate/mild storm hanging down off Antarctica due south of Socal over the last couple of days. It hasn’t done anything super impressive, winds have held around 30-35 knots, but it has held semi-stationary with just a touch of S-to-N movement that pushed the winds in our direction. We can expect a small pulse of S swell (180-190) starting to show on Monday-Tuesday (Jan 25-26) and then a slightly stronger pulse of S energy (175-190) pushing in around Wednesday (Jan 27).
Don’t expect much more than chest high from these guys…but since the WNW swell will be more manageable around that time…we might see a few fun combo peaks starting to slip through.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, January 25th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
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