Southern California Long Range Surf Forecast 08/26/10

The surf will back down as we head into the weekend but another couple of pulses from the S and SW will keep the surf from dropping too fast. A little more windswell, and a touch of tropical swell from Hurricane Frank (the Tank), will help round things out. Overall expect smaller, but still potentially playful surf (if you bring the right gear, and attitude).

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (More surf!…wow! who would have thought?)
The S swell (180-190) fades on Friday but still conjures up some decent sized surf at the standout breaks. The average spots back more into the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high sets still showing at times. The standout S facing beaches and the top combo spots, still mostly in the OC, see some shoulder-head high surf with some occasionally bigger sets showing at the best breaks on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Winds are still looking a bit funky for Friday…clean(er) in the morning but unstable with onshore flow coming up pretty early. I wouldn’t wait too long to surf on Friday. It looks like onshore flow starting to push up the sea breeze around 10am…and then stronger onshore flow tapping out around 10-15 knots by late in the afternoon

Check out how the swell, wind, and tides, affects the different Southern California regions...(click on each one to get a sub-regional forecast...and if you click one of the "surf break" links, you can even get spot-specific winds and weather for each break)...Santa Barbara, Ventura, North LA, the South Bay, North Orange County, South Orange County, North San Diego, South San Diego.




Still just teasing....get the full forecast (and more frank the tank) at www.solspot.com

http://surf.solspot.com/content/solspot/adam-wright/waves-and-a-little-wind-hold-into-the-weekend-smaller-surf-on-tap-next-week

Waves for Wednesday – Fading but fun

Wednesday will be another surf day.

Our W-NW swell mix and our background SW swell will both continue to fade but there will be enough leftover energy to get out and ride some waves…especially on the lower tides.



Average WNW-NW facing spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high sets. The standout NW facing breaks will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger head high sets still showing. The best NW breaks in San Diego (Southern SD) will see a few larger sets in the morning during the early tide push. Expect size and consistency to continue to wind down throughout the day.

Winds will be good…mostly light and variable to light offshore for the morning…then just a moderate onshore bump pushing through in the afternoon…with winds likely topping out NW 10-15 knots at the more exposed areas.



Overall it is going to be another playful surf day…nothing macking anywhere, but enough push still hanging on that we can get out and surf a few at the well exposed breaks. Conditions will be pretty clean through the early part of the day and with the early AM tide push I think it will be worth getting out for a morning session.

I think I caught the bird/swine/cat flu from surfing to close to the river…so no regional forecasts today.

Here are the tides…

02/17/2010 Wed
04:38AM LST 1.1 L
10:21AM LST 4.0 H
04:39PM LST 0.7 L
10:54PM LST 4.5 H

Waves for the Weekend – Still good Saturday but trailing off a little on Sunday

So it is looking pretty surfable this weekend…Saturday is looking like the best day.

The combo swell will continue to combo, despite losing a bit more size as both the W-WNW (275-300) and S swells (180-200) back down. By Sunday we can expect the swell mix to shift direction slightly with the NPAC energy getting a little more NW’erly and the S swell dropping off even more…but still we should have some playful waves at the well exposed breaks.

Saturday Morning



Sunday Morning



On Saturday…the average spots will be in the waist-chest high range with still a few inconsistent shoulder high sets mixing in. The standout spots, mostly the really good combo breaks and the top NW facing spots will be more in the chest-shoulder high+ range with some head high sets still leaking in on he lower tides.

Conditions for Saturday look good…more of this light Santa Ana set up…so we can expect N-NE winds around 5-10 knots for the morning (with a chance at some sudden fog patches, like the one that plowed through Orange County this morning). The winds will stay light through most of the day…and if everything holds together we should be able to surf pretty clean conditions through most of the day as well.



Sunday the swell mix drops a bit as the S swell fades out and the WNW-NW gets a little more NW’erly. The average spots are still going to hold around waist-chest high but with less chest high+ sets. The Standout NW facing breaks, and a few of the best exposed NW combo spots, will be in the waist-shoulder high range but there may be a few head high peaks on the lower tides.

Conditions on Sunday look a little more eddyish…sort of variable to light Southerly flow in the morning with some texture at the more exposed areas. Look for building NW winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon.



There will still be plenty of fun out there this weekend…not as big as Friday (or earlier in the week) but fun. Expect it to be a bit of a zoo though...sunny skies, warm beach temps, and decent surf are going to pull everyone and their dog to the beach. Really your best bet is going to be just hunting around for a less crowded little peak…the combo is rolling so you will be able to find waves all over, we should be able to spread out a little and still find a few nuggets. Watch the high tides too!

Here are the tides…have a great one…try and get out on Saturday if you can.

Saturday
02:40AM LDT 0.8 L
08:46AM LDT 6.1 H (ugh!)
03:32PM LDT -0.3 L
09:32PM LDT 4.7 H

Sunday
03:11AM LDT 1.2 L
09:16AM LDT 6.2 H (more dirty tide swamp)
04:13PM LDT -0.5 L
10:18PM LDT 4.4 H

Surf for Thursday – Fading but still fun

Thursday is going to be a surf day.

We are going to see a mix of overlapping S-SSW swells (180-210), both of which are slowly fading, as well as a slight increase in WNW windswell, and a touch of very background NW energy.



Wave heights will dip slightly compared to Wednesday…but the average spots will still hold mostly in the waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. Standout S facing breaks, mostly through Orange County, will see surf in the chest-shoulder high range…though I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of slightly bigger sets pushing through during the morning.

Winds will be light tomorrow morning…the wind models are still showing some slightly eddyish tint to them, but I don’t think they will be unmanageable by any means. Likely we can expect light/variable conditions for most areas through the early morning, with some light texture to the really exposed areas in parts of OC and San Diego. Afternoon winds will come onshore around 10-12 knots out of the WNW.



I am thinking that our best bet tomorrow is going to be during the dawn-patrol through midmorning…the tide push has seemed to really help things out over the last couple of days…but the high tide peak has been a bit too much water for many breaks. Getting on it before the tide gets too solid will probably be a good idea. Stick with the S facing breaks, or the really good combo spots, if you are looking for the biggest and most consistent waves…points and reefs will probably have the best shape, but the well developed sandbars will have a few corners too.

Here are the tides…have a good one!

12:40AM LDT 3.4 H
05:03AM LDT 2.4 L
11:33AM LDT 5.7 H
07:26PM LDT 0.3 L

Surf for Tuesday – Fading but with a few fun ones

Tuesday will be a surf day...but don’t expect a lot of size or consistency out of the bigger sets.

We will have a mix of fading S-SW swell, both tropical energy from Hurricane Felicia and dropping Southern Hemi swell (180-210). NW windswell will be building in the outer waters but not much will make it onto our beaches.



Wave heights will be in the knee-waist high range at most of the average southerly exposed spots. Standout S-SW facing spots, mostly through Orange County and San Diego, will see a little more size with waist-chest high surf and some rare chest high+ sets. The swell periods for this mix of swells is starting to get pretty short...so expect almost a gutless windswell feel at times...even at the top breaks.

Winds look good...light and variable with some very manageable onshore flow in the morning. Most spots will be pretty clean with a just a couple of pockets of onshore texture. W winds build in through the afternoon and top out around 10-12 knots.



While the forecast for tomorrow isn’t super exciting it will be surfable, particularly on the morning low tides. Clean conditions, warming water (I trunked it with a wetsuit top on Monday...but I am built sort of like a polar bear, so that that with a grain of salt), and a few waves at the exposed spots make a good argument for checking it in the morning. If you are a bigger surfer you might want to stick with your smaller wave gear...it will probably more fun with fishy shapes and bigger boards at most of the average spots.

Here are the tides...

12:17AM LDT 3.7 H
06:25AM LDT 1.3 L
12:57PM LDT 4.8 H
07:52PM LDT 1.6 L

Waves for the Weekend – Fading but fun

We are going to have some surf this weekend...nothing special...but the water is warming up, there is some swell in the water, and the weather should be nice...which in my mind makes it a surf weekend.

Swellwise we will have some fading S-SW swell (180-210), dropping SE swell, and increasing NW windswell. Check out the sideways forecast...you can see the S-SW swell dropping out and more NW windswell coming in by Sunday/Monday.



Wave heights on Saturday will continue to hold around waist-chest high at the average spots. The standout S-SW facing spots, and the best combo breaks (mostly through OC and parts of SD), will be in the chest-shoulder high range. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few bigger sets at the standout S facing spots through the low-tide in the morning.

On Sunday the S facing spots will be smaller...the average spots will be backing down to waist high...the standout spots will back down into the chest high range. The better NW windswell/combo spots will be more consistently in the chest-high+ range.

Winds look decent for the weekend...slightly eddyish again...but manageable through the mornings. Both Saturday and Sunday will have variable to slightly S winds in the 5 knot range. W winds around 10-14 knots will build in through the afternoons.

Saturday Morning Winds



Sunday Morning Winds



Overall I think there will be a few playful waves this weekend. Again nothing super special...just fun, and fairly consistent thanks to the mix of swells. I actually expect the beach breaks to get a bit more workable on Sunday as the S-SW swells back off and the windswell fills in...the combo breaks could be a good call on that low-to-high tide push through midmorning. Tides will be an issue at times this weekend so try and pick spots that can work with the morning low tides.

Here are the tides...have a great weekend!

Saturday
06:28AM LDT 0.1 L
12:58PM LDT 3.9 H
06:14PM LDT 2.3 L
11:50PM LDT 4.5 H

Sunday
06:56AM LDT 0.5 L
01:32PM LDT 4.1 H
07:12PM LDT 2.3 L

Friday’s Surf – Smaller but still fun

Friday will be another surf day.

It won’t be great or all that consistent but there will still be a little swell in the water and the winds will continue to stay on the light side.

We are going to have a mix of fading SW swell (180-220) and background WNW-NW energy.

Most spots are going to continue to hold around waist high. The standout SW facing spots, mostly through OC and San Diego, will be in the waist-chest high range with a few inconsistent chest-shoulder high sets. It will be long waits between waves but there will be a few fun peaks at the better exposed combo breaks.

Winds will be similar to Thursday…sort of light and variable to light out of the S-SE in the morning with some W winds 10-14 knots on tap in the afternoon. Overcast and gloomy in the morning with sun burning through by the afternoon.



Again it won’t be great, or consistent, tomorrow but the surf will be on the clean side and there will be enough energy for us to at least have a little fun. Water is starting to warm up too…HB was probably close to the low-mid 60’s today. I would still plan on your smaller wave gear or even longboards just so you can maximize the fun.

Here are the tides…

12:40AM LDT 4.2 H
08:57AM LDT 0.5 L
04:34PM LDT 3.3 H
08:25PM LDT 3.0 L

Surf for Tuesday – a few waves and some more out the back

Tuesday morning is still looking like a surf day…but an approaching low-pressure looks like it might start the weather to go a bit wonky by the afternoon.

In the water we are going to see a mix of much smaller but still playful S-SSE swell (170-180), some local windswell, and a WNW/SW combo that holds in the background.
Sizewise we can expect most spots to be fairly consistently in the waist-chest high range. The better breaks will be more chest-high+, and the top spots, mostly in SD and OC, will have some chest-shoulder high+ sets.

Shape looks good in the morning with light/variable winds for most areas and maybe some light S flow for a few of the unlucky beaches. Increasing S-SW winds 10-15 knots are forecast for the afternoon. The weather is supposed to cool off, get a bit cloudy, and even drizzle by the late evening. It won’t be much but you probably shouldn’t wash your car.

I would try and get on it early in the morning, just so you can get the better winds, and hopefully a few waves before the high tide peaks to fully. Combo breaks are going to be the best call, beach breaks should be fun but there still may be a little current if it is exposed to the S-SW swell mix. The points/reefs will be fun as well but may be a little broken up at times.

Long-range is starting too look pretty interesting…there is a pretty decent looking storm due south of us right now that is putting some 40-50 knot winds up on the QuikSCAT analysis. Check it out…



With these stronger winds, and fetch that is moving almost directly towards us, it looks like we should get a pretty fun swell around the beginning of next week. We should actually start to see some long-period energy showing on the buoys on the 12th…but the main push of swell should hit on the 13-14th. At this point it looks good for easy shoulder-head high surf for the S facing spots. The standouts, mostly through Orange County, should have some consistent overhead sets. There is also a chance a bit of a WNW swell to be arriving around the same time, it won’t be much but hopefully we can see it break up the S swell. Anyway…more details on this one as we get closer.

Here are the tides.

02:31AM LDT 0.3 L
08:23AM LDT 4.8 H
02:39PM LDT -0.1 L
08:46PM LDT 5.3 H

Tuesday's Surf - fading surf...but it won't stay down for long

Tuesday will be a surf day...and even though it will be a bit smaller than the last few days there may be a little bit better shape as some of the more walled beach breaks start to open up a bit.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of dropping S swell, some background tropical energy both from the S and SE, and a bit of local windswell. Most breaks with some exposure to the S swells will be in the waist-shoulder high range. Standout S facing surf spots, particularly in Orange County and North San Diego, will have some head high+ sets mixing in on the tide push.

Winds will be sort of similar to the last couple of days...light and variable early, with a few spots of light texture, and then onshore out of the W around 10-15 knots by the afternoon. If you live close to the beach it might even be worth keeping an eye on it late in the evening as well...winds have been backing off a bit before sunset. It doesn't get super clean...but better than the midday chop.

S facing spots, particularly ones that do well on the Southern Hemi swells, will be the call on Tuesday. I think that the points and reefs will continue to have the best shape...but the beach breaks may be a bit more workable with a few extra corners. Still expect a bit of current at the more open spots, but even that should back off a touch. I still think this swell is worth driving for...especially now that people are back at work for the week.

Here is the CDIP model for the afternoon...I like seeing a real swell visualized on these models...it gives you a real clean picture of where the swell is working its way into.




Oh and a couple of random notes...the US Open is starting to move into full crazy mode. So if you were planning on surfing the HB pier this week you might want to just slam your head in a car door...you will get the same effect and save a little gas. Also I saw "The Dark Knight" over the weekend...two words...freaking awesome.