Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/21/2009

Forecast Overview
Look for the small/playful sized combo swell mix to continue for the next few days as new SW and NW swells move in to blend with the fading energy from the weekend. Clean conditions and better tides will help to keep shape fun for the next few mornings.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
We have a new SSW (190-205) moving and mixing with the fading NW/SSW energy from the weekend. Local NW windswell will be on the rise...but will be a bit too NW’erly for many spots. Look for surf in the waist-chest high range for most of the average breaks. Top SSW facing breaks and the excellent combo breaks, will be in the chest-shoulder high range on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Conditions look clean for the morning with mostly light/variable to light offshore flow. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.

Wednesday
The mix of swells will back down as the SSW’er (190-205) drops slowly and the NW energy starts to fade out as well. Still plenty of knee-waist high+ waves showing at the average exposed spots. Standout breaks will be more in the waist-chest high range but can expect some inconsistent shoulder high sets slipping through at the top SSW facing breaks. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions continue…mostly light and variable for the morning. WNW winds around 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.

Thursday
Wave heights will hold as we see some more minor SW swell (190-220) pulses up over the leftovers of the earlier SSW’er and we see a slight increase in NW swell activity. Look for the average spots to be back in the knee-waist high range with some less consistent chest high sets. Best spots hold more in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent chest-shoulder high waves. Looks like the best waves will show at the SW facing standouts...which will be slightly different than the more southerly swell that hit earlier in the week...try and pick your spots accordingly. Winds/Weather: Winds continue to look good…mostly light and variable to even light offshore for the morning…and just moderate NW winds (10-12 knots) by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
We have seen sort of spotty storm action in the North Pacific over the last few days...nothing particular interesting or significant in terms of swell production. There have been a couple of high latitude systems that have pushed underneath the Aleutians on the way to the Gulf of Alaska...but not much of their fetch was inside the SoCal swell window. As a result we are going to see some weak, but steady, NW energy (290-300) coming in over the next few days in the form of both windswell and slightly longer-period (9-13 period) stuff. Look for knee-waist high waves at the top NW spots for Tues-Wed of this week...and then a slight increase to waist-chest high surf by Thursday as the next pulse fills in. Similar sized energy will hold through Friday and into early Saturday.

Further Out the former super-typhoon Choi-Wan is finally going extra-tropical over in the West Pacific and is really starting to energize a colder low-pressure in the higher-latitudes. Check out the shot of wind speeds from the QuikSCAT satellite...



That big black streak is winds breaking the 50-knot mark...this is a pretty typical pattern for a storm going extra-tropical. These typhoon/hurricane/cyclone systems, while they can be very intense and deadly, are generally pretty small in size while they are in their tropical forms. As they start to push out of their tropical regions and into the colder mid- and high-latitudes they undergo a rapid cooling which, though a couple of different processes, forces the storm to expel excess heat energy in the form of wind/rain (basically the usual nastiness expected with a storm). It also starts to take on the characteristics of the more common cold front, basically becoming larger in size but less intense and destructive (these being relative terms) at the core of the storm. If the tropical storm happens to run into an already strong cold front the results can be pretty spectacular. It sucks to be in the vicinity of a storm going through this process, but it can be pretty awesome from a swell production standpoint if things pull together properly.

In this case with Choi-Wan...it looks like the storm is “popping” a bit too deep in the Western Pacific to send Southern California much of a swell...forecast charts are showing the storm intensifying as it makes a NE track up to the Aleutian Islands and then staying much too high in latitude to put much fetch in our swell window. It does however look like it will send a pretty solid early season NW swell to Hawaii (peaks there with well overhead waves on the 24th)...and a good sized, overhead+, WNW swell (285-320+) to Northern California that fills in on the 26th but peaks the 27th.



For Socal we will see a much smaller version of these swells. We will have new NW swell (290-300+) starting to push some small long-period energy in late on 26th...fill in more on the 27th, eventually peaking the afternoon of the 27th into the morning of the 28th. At this point it looks like we are going to get waist-chest high sized surf at the average NW facing spots...top NW breaks, mostly in San Diego and Ventura, will see chest-shoulder high sets. There will be a lot of shadowing to this swell so don’t expect much showing outside of the top winter breaks.

South Pacific
Still not a ton going on down in the SPAC...most of the storm activity has been pretty zonal...but the backsides of a few of the more intense systems have managed to push out some playful S-SW swells. This week we can expect a series of playful, but inconsistent at times, SSW-SW swells (190-220).

New S-SSW swell (180-200) peaked on Sunday the 20th and holds waves through the 21st. Another similar sized SSW swell (180-205) moves in on the 22nd and holds more waist-chest high+ waves through the middle of next week.



Further Out More playful waist-chest high SW swell (190-210) starts moving in late on the 26th and peaks on the 27-28th. Past that...forecast charts are calling for a decent looking storm to push across the SPAC in the next 3-5 days...if it lives up to the forecast we could see more chest-shoulder high S-SW swell (180-210) moving in around the 2-3rd of October.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Not much going on in the tropics right now...we have a tropical disturbance that is hanging down SSW of the tip of Baja...but any development in the system is expected to be very slow (if it occurs at all). No swell expected from this region at this time.



Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, September 24, 2009


Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com

Waves for the weekend – plan on surfing...a lot.

Both Saturday and Sunday are going to be surf days...so plan on setting a few hours aside to ride some waves this weekend.

The playful NW/SW combo that we have been seeing the last few days will get some reinforcement as both a new NW swell (290-300) and a new SSW (180-200) mix in over the weekend. The NW’er will actually peak late Friday night but will hold waves through Saturday before dipping slightly on Sunday. The SSW’er will fill in slowly on Saturday and will peak into early Sunday, holding waves into the start of next week.



So for the weekend...look for surf to hang around waist-chest high+ at the average exposed breaks. Better NW facing spots will be closer to chest-shoulder high range on Saturday, and the better SSW facing breaks will be chest-shoulder high on Sunday. The top combo spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets throughout the weekend. A few of the best breaks might see some slightly bigger peaks as the swells cross up on the sets.

Winds look good for both Saturday and Sunday morning. We can expect light and variable to slightly offshore conditions from the dawn patrol through midmorning. Building onshore flow picks up around lunchtime but only really hits the westerly 10-12 knot range by later in the afternoon. Sunday may see the wind pick up a little earlier...so if you want to avoid the bump you might want to try and motivate closer to sunup.

Saturday Morning Winds


Sunday Morning Winds


The mix of swells is going to send playful rideable waves to spots all over Southern California...but please keep in mind that Santa Barbara will be a bit smaller thanks to shadowing from Point Conception and the Channel Islands. North LA, particularly as you get close to Santa Monica, will also be a touch smaller thanks to being tucked back into a more shadowed area. It won’t be flat in either area...just don’t expect as much combo-funness as the other more exposed spots.

The biggest surf is going to be showing in San Diego, Southern Ventura, and parts of Orange County...and will shift around those regions as the NW and SSW swells peak. I think that the combo beach breaks will be the most fun...especially if they have some decent sandbars and/or can handle a little fatter of a tide that hits midday. The points and reefs will be good too, but may be a touch shifty compared to how they behave on the pure single swells. Personally I am going to try and crawl out of bed for the dawn patrols on both mornings...the high tide is slowly pushing closer to lunchtime so I think there is going to be a better window for clean, tide-pushed, surf through the first part of the day.

Here are the tides...have a great weekend...hope you score a playful little peak of your own (there will be plenty out there). Definitely watch that midmorning high tide...it is a swampthing.

Saturday
03:50AM LDT 0.2 L
09:55AM LDT 5.9 H
04:23PM LDT 0.0 L
10:21PM LDT 5.2 H

Sunday
04:21AM LDT 0.8 L
10:26AM LDT 6.0 H
05:09PM LDT 0.0 L
11:08PM LDT 4.6 H

Surf for Tuesday – More morning funness

Tuesday will be another surf day.

We are going to continue to see a mix of S and SW swells (180-220) as well as some background NW windswell. None of the swells will be particularly big or consistent...but the combo breaks will do a good job of blending the swell mix into some playful peaks.



On Tuesday most spots will have surf in the knee-chest high range. Sets will be a little inconsistent but playful when they show. Standout S facing spots, particularly combo breaks, will have waist-chest high surf with some shoulder high sets.



Winds will be similar to Monday...light and variable and clean conditions early in the morning, some light onshore texture by midmorning and early lunchtime, and then NW winds around 10-15 knots by the afternoon. Cloudy skies early morning will burn off to sunny skies through the middle of the day.

Overall we are going to have sort of a soft/playful day of surf. The best shape will be through the morning as we come off the early negative-low tide. Once the tide fills in it looks like semi-soft/mushy shape will be on tap for most breaks. Orange County and San Diego look like they will have the most consistent and largest surf, but expect rideable waves in all of the other regions as well. We aren’t quite back to the need to take the small wave gear...but the wider fishier shapes might be more fun, and let you score more waves as we move into the higher tide by midmorning.

Here are the tides...

04:44AM LDT -1.7 L
11:11AM LDT 3.8 H
03:53PM LDT 1.9 L
10:01PM LDT 6.8 H

Waves for the weekend – Combo swell continues

Saturday and Sunday will be surf days…but conditions may be a touch on the blah side as the coastal eddy develops and strengthens over the weekend.

We are going to have a playful mix of S-SW swell (180-220) that is pulsing in from a couple of different sources. We are also going to have some building WNW-NW windswell that will begin strengthening tonight (as winds in the outer waters build) but will peak Saturday, hold through Sunday, and then back down slightly for Monday. Overall it is going to look sort of like the CDIP from this morning but with more size.



Wave heights are going to hold around waist high for the average spots…maybe some chest high sets on the lower tides. The better combo spots, and the top S facing breaks, will have chest-shoulder high surf as well as some rare bigger waves on the lower tides. Looks like the WNW energy will peak on Saturday so the combo spots should be best then…and then the S-SW swell mix strengthens more on Father’s Day so the S facing spots should start to work a bit better and get a little more consistent.

Winds will be a touch funky at times as the eddy spins up. Right now it looks like the center of the eddy will hold just north of Catalina which means that Santa Barbara/Ventura will have some light NW flow, OC and SD will get light S-SW winds, and LA (particularly the South Bay) will have light SE winds. This looks to be the case on both Saturday and Sunday…but the eddy looks the strongest on Saturday.

Wavewise I am expecting the biggest surf through Orange County and San Diego this weekend…I don’t think it will be worth driving super far to get waves…mostly because there will be something to ride almost throughout SoCal. I still think that the points and reefs will have the best shape, particularly if they can handle the higher tides. Beach breaks will be fun too, but it looks like the bigger S swell may have carved out the sandbars in a few areas. I would probably plan on bringing gear that still lets you get waves in sort of inconsistent/swampy shape.

Here are the tides…have a great Father’s Day!

Saturday
02:30AM LDT -0.7 L
08:53AM LDT 3.4 H
01:18PM LDT 2.1 L
07:38PM LDT 6.4 H

Sunday
03:15AM LDT -1.2 L
09:41AM LDT 3.6 H
02:09PM LDT 2.1 L
08:24PM LDT 6.7 H

Friday’s Surf – Building SW and WNW swell combo

Friday will be another surf day...but we may see some eddy texture at the more exposed spots.

We will have more of a swell combo on Friday...there will be a mix of building SW swell (190-215 or so), leftover S-SW swell from earlier this week, and building WNW windswell. We already have a little more of the windswell in the water here on Thursday but this will continue to build through the day on Friday and looks like it is going to max out over the weekend. Check out the CDIP 3-day forecast...(take in mind that a lot of the “swell heights” will actually be quite a bit of short-period chop from increasing outer water winds...this isn’t a huge NW swell all of a sudden).



The increasing windswell (and increasing outer water winds) are sort of a mixed blessing...on one hand we are going to get some more cross-up to the southern hemi swells, which will make the beach breaks a bit more fun. But on the other hand the stronger outer water winds spin up the “coastal eddy” which means S-SW winds for many of the more-exposed areas and some steady crumble/texture at spots facing the wrong way.

On Friday...fortunately...it looks like the wind starts off slow...mostly light and variable in the morning with only a couple of small pockets of texture. Look for NW winds around 10-14 knots by the afternoon.



Surfwise we are going to see a lot of waist-chest high waves at the average exposed spots with some chest-shoulder high sets at the best combo breaks. The bigger waves will be more consistent in the afternoon as the mix of S-SW swell fills back in and the local windswell starts to build up as well.

I think that you should be able to find some rideable waves almost all S-SW facing spots...the NW windswell breaks will be a bit soft in the morning. The tides aren’t going to do a lot to help us tomorrow...so you might want to stick with breaks that can handle a little bit more water.

Here are the tides...

01:45AM LDT 0.0 L
07:59AM LDT 3.2 H
12:26PM LDT 2.0 L
06:53PM LDT 6.0 H

Waves for the Weekend – A little funk on Saturday. New S swell on Sunday

We are going to have some surf this weekend.

Saturday is going to be a bit funky as this weird little storm warbles over us...fortunately conditions do improve by Sunday, just in time for the new S swell (180-190) to arrive.

On Saturday we can expect a mix of WNW swell (290-300), local NW windswell, and some SW swell (200-220). Most spots will hold in the chest high range. The standout combo spots and the really exposed NW spots (*cough* San Diego *cough*) will have some shoulder-head high sets. Shape won’t be ideal thanks to some variable onshore flow that is forecast to hold over the area. At this point it looks like textured bump with winds around 10-knots for the morning...and then more W-SW flow pushing through the afternoon. Check out this little pain in the butt storm on the GOES satellite.



Sunday we see the new S swell (180-190) start to fill in. Periods will be pretty long as the swell first starts to arrive...probably around 18-19 seconds initially. I don’t think we are going to see a ton of new size through the morning but there will be some extra punch as the first sets start to arrive at the exposed areas. Look for more size as the swell continues to fill in through the day...chance for some head high+ sets at the top S spots (mostly through Orange County) by late in the day. This swell eventually peaks Monday and Tuesday...so expect plenty of waves from it as we head through next week.

Winds on Sunday look much better...forecasts are calling for light and variable winds through the morning with a few spots of light texture. Onshore W flow around 10-12 knots moves in through the afternoon.

Like I said...we should see plenty of waves this weekend but Sunday looks the best. All areas will have playful sizes but the top NW facing spots and the best S facing breaks (and the excellent combo spots) will see the most size and the most consistency. If you can I would plan on surfing more on Sunday just because the conditions look better...but I would also try and carve out some time to surf early next week as the S swell (and another WNW’er) fill in a bit more and peak.

Here are the tides...Have a great weekend and a happy Easter!

Saturday
05:13AM LDT -0.5 L
11:19AM LDT 3.6 H
04:29PM LDT 1.5 L
10:37PM LDT 5.4 H

Sunday
05:55AM LDT -0.3 L
12:08PM LDT 3.2 H
04:52PM LDT 1.9 L
11:06PM LDT 5.1 H

Surf for Tuesday - yeah it is going to be good again

Tuesday will be a surf day...not as big as Monday but still really fun almost everywhere that is exposed to the swell mix.

In the water we are going to have a mix of overlapping SSW swells, slowly fading tropical S-SSW swell from Marie, dropping WNW energy from the North Pacific, and some local windswell.

Most of the decent spots throughout SoCal will be in the chest-shoulder high range, the better combo breaks will have head high sets, and the top S facing spots and excellent combo breaks (mostly in SD and OC) will have some overhead sets still mixing in at times.

Conditions look good for the morning, mostly light and variable to light-offshore winds for all areas. W winds pick up to about 10-12 knots at the more exposed beaches but may not get as strong in the more protected areas.

Monday was a pretty damn good surf day for many areas...and while the swell mix isn't exactly the same as what we saw today it will be very similar...so if you managed to get in the water and score somewhere you should check that spot again tomorrow. The combo spots will definitely be a good call tomorrow...the beach breaks (if they have decent sand) will pull in some a-frames. Points and Reefs will be fun but may be a bit more broken up than you would normally expect. With the light winds and still healthy swell I think you can get up and go to the beach without looking at a computer tomorrow...it will probably even be worth driving a little further to pick off a few if you are further from an exposed beach.

Check out the CDIP from this afternoon…looks like it will be pretty similar tomorrow.

Tides for Tuesday

07:29AM 3.6' High
10:19AM 3.6' Low
03:42PM 4.2' High
11:55PM 0.8' Low

P.S. I still can't believe that I sent out an email inviting 400 people to lunch earlier today. See what fun stuff you get if you sign up for the blog email list! (Maybe next time I will send out my grocery list or something...Doh!).

Monday’s Surf – New S swell and the start of another eddy…freaking figures.

In general Monday will be a surf day…but there will be a bit of eddy texture starting to slip through in some areas.

We will be doing alright swellwise on Monday. We will have a mix of building S swell (even more energy arriving on top of the S swell we had arrive over the weekend), fading WNW medium period swell, and building NW windswell.

Most spots will continue to hold around chest-shoulder high while the standout S-facing breaks and good combo spots, mostly in Orange County, San Diego, and LA, see some head high sets at times.

What really sort of sucks is that the winds in the outer waters will be increasing on Monday and will start to spin up the eddy again. In general Monday won’t be that bad…if fact LA and Ventura will be clean in the morning…but look for some NW texture filling in through Santa Barbara and building S-SE winds starting to slip into Orange County and San Diego.

I think that it will be worth hunting down a few waves in the morning…combo swells are always fun…and even with a little bump on it you should be able to pick off a few decent rides. I would probably give it a quick cam check in the morning…sometimes the eddy can pick up faster than we want.

The weather is supposed to get worse as we head toward the middle of the week…more eddy and strong S winds junking it up as we hit Wednesday. Cross your fingers that this part of the forecast changes over the next few pressure-model runs

Just for yucks (and because I like pretty colors) here is a pic of the current CDIP model. Monday will be similar but with more S swell.