Did I mention...

...the S swell is still filling in? Yep it sure is. Sizewise for Monday we can probably shave a little off the top...but not much just a little less consistency on the bigger waves. I am still thinking that most of the better exposed S facing beaches will hit shoulder-head high on the sets with some inconsistent overhead sets mixing in. Standout S-SSW facing spots will have more consistent head high to overhead+ with sets going 2-feet overhead and a little bigger on the big sets. Still a chance for some larger waves at the focal breaks.

Also the winds look a lot better tomorrow morning as well.



Maybe the lag on the peak of the swell is now a good thing...hitting after a normally crazy beach holiday and on a day with much better winds.

Surf for Friday – New WNW-NW swell with a little wind-bump on the side

Friday looks pretty surfable…and with the weather warming back up, it being a Friday, and there being some swell to ride…I think we should just go ahead and call it a surf day.

We will have a mix of fading SW swell (195-215), a new building WNW-NW swell (280-300), and some increasing local windswell. The WNW’er will already be showing up around Ventura (and probably the South Bay) by the morning but it will have just started to arrive in OC and San Diego…so don’t expect a ton of new energy from it at first unless you are a little further north. It will fill in more through the day and as the local windswell jumps into the mix the WNW-NW facing spots should be pretty consistent by the afternoon.



Overall it looks like the average SW and WNW facing spots will continue to hold in the waist-chest high range…with some plus sets showing at the average combo spots. Standout NW facing breaks will be chest-shoulder high on most sets with some head high and overhead waves mixing in as the WNW energy gets more established. There will be another decent sized tide swing through the morning…so try and pick spots that can handle the extra water in the morning and then the negative low-tide around lunchtime.

Looks like winds will be fairly clean in the morning…there may be a little variable onshore winds here are there but it will be on the light side (hopefully below 5 knots). The winds switch onshore by the afternoon and push in out of the WNW-NW around 10-15+ knots.

Here are the graphical NWS regional models…the COAMPS needs to lay off the crack it has been smoking lately (they must be running it on a Vista machine).

Winds for Santa Barbara through Los Angeles



Winds for Orange County and San Diego



So it won’t be anything spectacular on Friday…the swell isn’t all that big for most spots…but there will still be enough combo in the water that almost everyone will be able to find something to ride. It will be one of those compromise days in terms of the tide/wind…do you surf early with the high tide and clean conditions? Or do you wait for the tide to drop and then get bumpy shape thanks to increasing onshore winds? Personally I am going to aim for somewhere in the middle and hope that I can find a sandbar somewhere that can take on the swampthing.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/26/2010 Friday
12:55AM LDT 1.5 L
06:44AM LDT 5.2 H
01:42PM LDT -0.7 L
07:59PM LDT 4.4 H

Waves for Wednesday – Cleaning up and getting a little NW’erly

Wednesday will be a surf day.

Our swell mix, which starts off sort of W-WNW, will shift more NW’erly and drop throughout the day…look for the morning swell direction to be about 275-300, and the by the afternoon it will have shifted more to the 290-300 range. Small SSW swell (190-210) will hold in the background.

Check out how the swell shifts and fades through the day…









Surf size is really going to depend on where you are located and when you surf tomorrow. San Diego will stay fairly big all day, with most of the energy hitting through Southern SD. Average spots in that county will be around chest-head high while the standout NW spots see some overhead+ sets mixing in.

The NW spots up towards Ventura and a lot of the South Bay…will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high and head high+ sets through the morning but the steeper swell angle and dropping energy will start to shave off some size by the afternoon.

The lesser exposed spots, like most of the breaks through Orange County, Santa Barbara, and North LA, will be in the waist-chest high range but with a few more consistent chest-shoulder high sets through the morning. These areas, because of the more northerly swell angle, will drop off the fastest as things switch around.

Windwise things look pretty good…mostly light/moderate N-NNE winds in the morning, which are a little side-offshore for some areas and really offshore for others. Looks like super chilly am air temps and the water itself isn’t going to be feeling all that great thanks to the brutal winds that pushed through on Tuesday. I would definitely plan on the winter suit for the dawn patrol tomorrow…maybe booties and a squid-lid if you live in a spot that lets the morning winds blow through with some extra pep. Afternoon winds look remarkably light…so there might be a chance for some afternoon surf, particularly at spots that already have some wind protection (kelp, high cliffs, some sort of structure).

So like I said it looks like a surf day tomorrow…still plenty of swell, and it looks like shape should be pretty clean in the morning since the winds shift offshore a couple of hours before sunup. Expect that stacked up windswell shape and slight gutlessness that you get with shorter-period swells but there will plenty of waves and it should still be crossed up enough that most spots will have some decent corners. You might want to wait for things to warm up a little (air temps are supposed to creep up tomorrow)…I think that the winds and the swell will stick around long enough to keep fun waves through midday…but watch for a bit more onshore bump and dropping swell the later in the day you hit it.

Here are the tides…

12/23/2009 Wednesday
02:06AM LST 3.9 H
07:55AM LST 2.6 L
12:38PM LST 3.4 H
07:41PM LST 1.2 L

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 12/14/2009

Forecast Overview

Local windswell will drop away as the clouds and leftovers of the weekend’s storm finally move out of the area on Tuesday. A couple of fun-sized WNW pulses push in through the week, one arriving on Tuesday and another on Thursday…both of which will keep the WNW facing breaks in some fun-rideable surf. Warmer temps, and mostly clean conditions will be on tap for most of the week.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday
We will see a mix of backing off WNW-NW windswell, some new medium-period WNW swell (280-300), and some trace SW energy. Most WNW facing breaks will be in the waist-chest high range. Standout NW facing spots, particularly the breaks that like the medium-short swell periods, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger sets mixing in on the good tides. San Diego South County standouts continue to look larger than other areas thanks to more exposure to the NW energy. Winds/Weather: Mostly light and variable to light offshore winds in the morning, clean conditions for most areas, with a few clouds still lingering at times. NW winds around 10-12 knots will be on tap for the afternoon.



Wednesday
Look for similar, if not a touch smaller sizes on Wednesday. We will have a mix of holding WNW energy (280-300), fading leftover windswell, and some slightly bigger SW swell (190-215). Most exposed spots will continue to run around waist high with some chest high sets. Standout NW facing breaks will have some shoulder high waves on the best sets. A new pulse of WNW swell (285-300) starts to move into exposed areas by midday and will add some more size to the Northern Counties (Santa Barbara and Ventura) by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to light-offshore for the morning. Afternoon NW winds hold around 10-12 knots.



Thursday
New WNW swell (285-300 again with most of the energy coming in 290+) will peak, as it mixes with background SW energy (190-215) and some local NW windswell. Most WNW-facing breaks will be in the waist-chest high range but I do expect a few less consistent sets hitting shoulder high and maybe a little bigger at times. The standout NW facing breaks, again the Ventura, South Bay, and San Diego NW standouts, will have consistent chest-shoulder high surf with sets going head high and a bit overhead at times. The top breaks of Southern San Diego, will be more consistently shoulder-overhead on sets with a few bigger waves hitting on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions will be on tap for the morning, mostly light/variable to light/offshore for the morning. WNW winds around 8-10 knots holds through the afternoon.



Friday
The WNW-NW swell (now 290-300) will continue to hold some ok size into the morning but may back off a bit more by the afternoon. We can still expect a lot of waist-chest high+ surf at the better WNW facing breaks. NW standout spots will be more in the chest-shoulder occasionally head high range but with a few bigger sets as you move down into Southern San Diego. Winds/Weather: Forecasts are calling for another day of light morning winds and sunny skies. Should be nice surfing weather through the morning and only moderate onshore NW winds through the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The NPAC continues to show some strong storm activity for both the short and long-range portions of the forecast. Currently we have a decent-sized, but not all that intense. Low pressure hanging just on the W-WNW side of the Gulf of Alaska. This storm is managing to set up some fetch for Socal, but most of the “good” energy is still a little too far to the north to send a good shot of swell our direction. As it stands we can expect a moderate/small WNW pulse (280-300) that hits Tuesday and fades Wednesday. A second following storm, that you can see the short-range forecast charts...





…will be sending in a slightly stronger, and better positioned, WNW swell (280-300 but with more energy below 290-degrees), that will arrive in the northerly counties late on Wednesday but really peak on Thursday before backing down slightly on Friday.

Long-range charts are showing more activity pushing in from the NW Pacific, and setting up shop N-NNE of the Hawaiian Islands in about 5-6 days. If this can live up to forecasts we would be looking at another long-period WNW swell heading our way for around the 22-23rd. More details on this one as we get closer.

South Pacific
The SPAC is slightly more active than it has been the last couple of weeks. Looks like a fast moving front has spun off Antarctica and has set up some fetch in a little better position than the last few pulses of energy have managed to reach.



We can expect the last of the background SW energy to arrive on Wednesday Dec 16th with some knee-waist high waves at the SW facing breaks…and then a slightly larger waist-chest high S-SSW swell (180-200) moving in on the 20-22nd.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, December 17th, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Surf for Thursday – Much cleaner but fading fast

I don’t think I am going to call Thursday a “surf day”…yes it will be rideable, and conditions will be a lot cleaner than Wednesday, but the windswell is going to drop fast and the higher morning tide isn’t going to do us any favors.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of quickly dropping NW windswell (285-300 with most of the energy around 295-300) and some background SW swell (200-220) crawling in from the Southern Hemisphere.

The average exposed spots…the breaks that have some exposure to the windswell mix…will be in the waist-chest high range through the morning. The standout NW facing spots, mostly the well exposed areas of Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will be in the waist-shoulder high range with still a few plus sets trying to power through the morning high tide. Since the swell is fading, look for the bigger waves to become less and less consistent as we move through into the afternoon.

Winds look much better for tomorrow…the fast moving cold front that spun up the winds for Wednesday is moving out of the area and high-pressure will build in its wake helping to set up some morning offshore winds. All areas can expect N-NE winds in the 5-10 knot range for tomorrow morning. The Santa Barbara, Ventura, and North LA areas may see some stronger gusts near passes and canyons. The winds will turn onshore out of the NW in the afternoon but should stay on the light side…right around 10-12 knots for most areas.

The windswell spots will definitely be the call tomorrow...the more NW exposure they have the better. Unfortunately the windswell doesn’t have a lot of kick to it…so even the top spots, which have some decent size, will be on the soft/rolly side. Your best bet is to find an exposed spot that likes both the shorter swell periods and the higher tides…preferably one that has a nice shallow sandbar for the windswell to throw itself over. Boardwise I personally think that a smaller/thicker board might be a good call…just so you can power through the mushy soft spots that you find in swells like these.

Here are the tides…

12:52AM LDT 1.0 L
07:11AM LDT 4.8 H
01:34PM LDT 1.4 L
07:14PM LDT 4.2 H

I am sure you noticed…but I am making a few changes to the layout of the blog (it is a little bit wider and is has new header!)…let me know what you think about the new set up. Also…now that I have some better ad-placements if any of you are interested in advertising on the site please drop me an email and we can go over the details. – Thanks! AW

Waves for Wednesday – Cleaning up…but expect some lingering bump

Wednesday looks rideable…but we need our local winds to get their poop together in order for conditions to improve. I definitely think there will be some pockets of surfy-ness tomorrow…but “where” and “for how long” will depend a lot on how winds behave tonight.

NW windswell has been building through the outer waters all day today…unfortunately most of the energy is coming in at a very steep swell-angle, above 300-degrees, which means SoCal is seeing a lot of shadowing from Point Conception (and the Channel islands). It also doesn’t help that the swell’s periods are so short, around 6-10 seconds. At those periods the energy doesn’t really wrap…so if you aren’t directly exposed to the swell direction it will basically march right on past your spot. Check out the buoys from this afternoon (yes you are reading it right…the Harvest Buoy is holding around 17-feet…unfortunately most of its energy is getting blocked.



Here is the forecast for tomorrow morning…



As you can see on the CDIP forecast above…the majority of the energy is heading towards San Diego, with a couple of tendrils sneaking into Ventura, the South Bay, and some smaller leakage around OC/North SD.

Wave heights for tomorrow are going to be in the waist-chest high range at the “average” NW windswell spots. The better NW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger sets mixing in. The top San Diego windswell spots, mostly from La Jolla southward, will be running consistently in the shoulder-head high range with some overhead+ sets showing through the morning and then becoming less consistent by the afternoon.

Winds are really what is going to make or break the surf tomorrow. The forecast is calling for winds to start shifting from the NW to N/NNE as we move through the day tomorrow…but it is a little unclear how soon that shift will start. At this point, considering that the air-temps are dropping fast (and will just get colder tonight), I think that the shift is going to happened sooner rather than later…and that we might even see N-NNE winds for the dawn patrol tomorrow morning. The COAMPS model is sort of saying the same thing…



It still has a lot of N-NNW winds in the outer waters…but the coastal flow is getting routed through the passes and canyons and has more of a northerly tint to it. Here I zoomed in on the COAMPS winds for each region…

Santa Barbara and Ventura



Los Angeles



Orange County



San Diego



Based on this forecast it looks like the cleanest conditions will set up around North LA and Orange County…but with some side offshore winds in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego. Hopefully we will see more of a general offshore than this model is calling for…I am not holding my breath for that though.

For the morning…I think that you are going to want to check the various live wind stations and surf cams before driving very far to check the surf, if the wind doesn’t switch fast enough it may still be pretty ugly. If you live close to the beach, particularly near a good windswell spot, I would plan on at least giving it a drive-by if the winds don’t seem too bad.

Conditions will definitely improve more on Thursday but the windswell will be dropping off fast…lets cross our fingers that we can get a fast cleanup on tomorrow and take advantage of the swell.

Here are the tides…let me know if you find a few fun ones tomorrow.

12:22AM LDT 0.9 L
06:54AM LDT 4.5 H
12:59PM LDT 2.0 L
06:28PM LDT 4.1 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 10/19/2009

Forecast Overview

We will have fun surf and improving conditions as we move through week. Peaking SW and new NW energy show on Tuesday/Wednesday and will be followed by a stronger pulse of WNW swell by Thursday. Light offshore winds set up by midweek and help keep things clean through to the weekend.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
We will have a mix of peaking SW swell (200-220), new NW energy (290-300), and some holding local NW windswell from the outer waters. Most spots will hold in the knee-waist high range…with a few chest high sets on the lower tides. The standout spots, mostly the well exposed combo spots in San Diego and a few in South OC, will be more consistently in the waist-chest high+ range with some shoulder high+ sets coming in on those lower tides. I mention tides because we are still trying to work around a near 6’ high tide that hits in the mid-morning…expect shape to be a bit slow through the early part of the day. Winds/Weather: looks like overcast skies and a slight eddy forming over Socal for Tuesday…fortunately the eddy is positioned closer to San Diego so winds look generally light for the morning. Expect light/variable conditions (possibly even a little light offshore in some areas) through the morning. NW winds around 10-knots brew up later in the afternoon.



Wednesday
The swell mix shifts around a bit…NW swell (290-300) strengthens slightly while the SW swell (200-220) starts to back off, NW windswell, and possibly a touch of tropical SE swell from Hurricane Rick, will blend into the background. Most spots will get a touch bigger…holding more in the waist-chest high range with some chest high+ sets coming through. The standout WNW-NW facing spots, and the good combo breaks, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with a few bigger head high sets showing down in the better exposed San Diego breaks. Winds/Weather: looks nice and clean…winds will be light offshore through the morning. Light/variable to light-onshore for the afternoons, which should help us work around the tide issues.



Thursday
Surf at NW facing spots starts building as a stronger, much long-period, WNW-NW swell (285-300) starts to fill in through the day. It won’t be showing everywhere in the morning mostly just filling in the exposed Santa Barbara and Ventura regions for the dawn patrol, but it steadily push into the Socal Bight throughout the day setting up more NW waves for the other Counties as we head into the afternoon (expect San Diego/OC spots to peak overnight into Friday). There will also be a bit of leftover SSW-SW energy (200-210), some dropping NW energy (290-300 and shorter-period) from earlier in the week, and a touch of local windswell. Most spots will continue to hold around the chest-high range…with some shoulder high sets starting to arrive later in the day. Standout NW facing spots, particularly in Ventura and the South Bay (and San Diego later in the day) will have shoulder-head high surf with some sets starting to go overhead at times. Winds/Weather: Conditions still look good…mostly light offshore for the morning and only marginal onshore flow by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The NPAC continues to spin up some storm action this week…we had a couple of OK looking lows move through the NW portion of our swell window over the weekend that will push in a playful NW swell (290-300) that will hit on the 20-21st.







Further out we have a nice looking storm brewing up in the NPAC right now…showing some decent looking spin on the GOES satellite photos as well as the QuikSCAT wind tracker. It has been getting more intense over the last 24 hours and is now showing some 40-60 knot winds in parts of the storm (the good parts). This system is expected to drive fast and hard towards the Northern portion of the Gulf of Alaska over the next day or so and will set up a solid looking swell for Northern and Central California, and a fun decent sized WNW-NW swell (285-300) for Southern California.

At this point it looks like the initial long-period (17-18 second stuff) starts to fill in to Socal on Thursday and will likely peak overnight into Friday. As the swell peaks we can expect steady chest-shoulder high sizes at the exposed breaks and shoulder-overhead sets (maybe even overhead+) at the standout breaks, mostly those in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego.

This swell won’t fade super fast thanks to a following cold front that trails the first part of the storm. This second set of fetch will continue to send in some smaller and shorter-period (but still very rideable) surf all the way through the 25-26th before it drops off.

South Pacific
There has been some OK looking storm/fetch holding just southeast of New Zealand that set up some more SW swell (200-220) that will arrive around the 19th and peak the 20-21st with surf in the chest-shoulder high range at the top SW facing breaks.

Further out the SPAC has quieted down a bit…nothing significant in the extreme long-range forecast at this point…but we can still expect a few rideable pulses of SW activity as we head into the last part of October.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
You probably read my post on Hurricane Rick earlier today but if not…you can read it here…

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2009/10/tropical-update-hurricane-rick-starting.html



Basically Hurricane Rick is starting to weaken and recurve back towards Baja and Mainland Mexico (where it will probably make landfall in the next couple of days). At this point I am not expecting much swell from Rick…just a bit of trace energy that arrives midweek and is gone by Thursday. Not much else showing out there at this point.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Surf for Tuesday – Cleaner but a touch smaller

Tuesday will be a surf day.

In the water we are going to have a mix of fading WNW-NW windswell, some steady S-SSW swell (180-200), and some background SW energy (200-220). With the windswell dropping out pretty fast tomorrow plan on the bigger wave heights to shift around a bit…the purely NW/windswell spots will get quite a bit smaller…and the bigger waves will be showing primarily at the top S-facing spots.



Average S-facing breaks and the OK combo spots will hold in the waist-chest high range on Tuesday. There may be a few chest high+ sets on the early morning low tide. Standout S facing breaks, mostly through Orange County (but in a few other areas as well), will hold in the chest-shoulder high range on the sets, with a few bigger waves showing at times through the early morning.

Winds look good…finally that stupid low is gone (talk about a forecasting headache)...the local conditions are going to normalize a bit, getting back into what we generally expect for the Fall. Look for light and variable conditions for the morning, maybe even a few spots with offshore flow, and then building W-NW winds 10-14 knots on tap by the afternoon.



While it will be a surf day…I am not expecting it to fire or anything tomorrow...the tides and the sort of dropping/shifting swell may not mix well together. I think your best bet will be the early morning session if you can motivate…the tide comes up fast midmorning and hits a nearly 6’ high by 10:15 or so…by the time it drops in the afternoon the onshore bump will have moved back in. I think that it will see be fun at the better combo spots…but if you are looking for the bigger sets you will have to stick to spots that have good southerly swell exposure.

Here are the tides…

04:10AM LDT 1.7 L
10:18AM LDT 5.9 H
05:28PM LDT 0.1 L
11:36PM LDT 3.7 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 10/05/2009

Forecast Overview

Fun mix of S-SW swell and fading windswell will be on tap for the next few days as winds/weather shift back to a more normal pattern, (Fall cleanliness!) Long-range isn’t showing a ton of surf at this point…but there are some rumblings starting to bubble up in the North Pacific.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
We will see a mix of dropping local WNW-NW windswell and holding/slightly fading S-SSW swell (180-210), and a new background SW swell (200-220). Average S facing breaks and ok combo spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some rare chest high+ sets. Standout S facing breaks and the top combo spots will be in the waist-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head high peaks at times. Look for the biggest size drop at the purely NW/windswell spots…the windswell is expected to really back down and it will take most of the rideable size as it does. Winds/Weather: Expect light and variable winds through the morning with some pockets of light-offshore flow in select areas. WNW-NW winds around 10-14 knots build in through the afternoon.

Wednesday
The mix of overlapping S-SW swells (180-220) and fading NW windswell will continue. The average S-SW facing spots will hold around the waist-chest high range. Standouts, the good S facing spots and the best combo spots, will be in the chest-shoulder high range on the sets…maybe a rare bigger set on the lower tides. Shape will get a little less combo-y and a little more lined up. Winds/Weather: Conditions continue to look good through midweek…light and variable winds through the morning with the usual 10-15 knot WNW-NW winds developing through the afternoon.

Thursday
More S-SW swell (180-210) pushes in and mixes with background energy and local windswell out of the NW (295-300). The NW’er is pretty steeply angled so it won’t show at most breaks, which means that most of our surf is going to be from the Southern Hemi (see what I mean about that swell mix sticking around). The average S facing spots continue to hold around waist-chest high…while the standouts are more in the chest-shoulder high range…again it looks like there may be a few plus sets sneaking in on the better tides. Winds/Weather: More good conditions…light and variable winds in the morning followed by building onshore NW winds 10-14 knots by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Short-term we aren’t seeing much in the way of storm activity in the North Pacific…but things are starting to look interesting in the long-range forecasts. For the next few days we can expect a drop in our local windswell as winds in the outer waters back down to more traditional fall-type conditions. There will also be a very small, steeply angled NW swell (295-300) that arrives on Thursday, which I am basically expecting to get lost in the leftover windswell and bigger SW swell.

Further Out is were we see the forecast charts start to get a bit more lively. The current GFS weather model is calling for another typhoon over by Japan to go extra-tropical in the next 4-6 days…likely significantly enhancing the storm track as it does. Check out the model run…







You can see how, even though the typhoon doesn’t directly connect to the colder low-pressure, it adds energy into the whole storm track. That extra energy deepens the low-pressure under the Aleutian Islands and helps to push some of the fetch into a lower latitude, which puts it more into the SoCal swell window. From a swell-standpoint, if reality can live up to the models, we would be looking at a new NW swell (290-300…maybe 285-300) arriving around Oct 12th…we will have to keep an eye on it and see if it can come together.

South Pacific
We will continue to see some fun S-SW swell over the next several days…likely holding through the 7th before it really starts to drop off all that much. Overall it won’t be huge, just sort of playful fall sizes, but it will at least keep us in the water for most of the week.

Further out the South Pacific isn’t looking all that great…activity has gone a bit zonal over the last few days and while it won’t go totally flat we can expect smaller, and much less consistent, surf as the S-SW swell hitting this week backs off.



It isn’t all bad news though…there is a little bit of fetch that rolls through our window in a couple of days that will send some more chest-high+ S-SW swell for around the 16-17th…and another storm forecast to form near New Zealand that could potentially push a better looking SW swell (200-220) that would arrive around the 19-20th….hmm hopefully the NPAC can kick something out to fill in the swell gap.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Not much going on in the tropics right now…



The pic pretty much says it all for the current forecast. Long-range models, which are…hmmm let’s call them “over-enthusiastic” when it comes to tropical activity, are showing some new stuff possibly pulling together late this week…I will definitely let you guys know if I see anything coming together.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, October 8th, 2009


Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Surf for Thursday – Cleaner than Wednesday

Thursday is looking like a surf day...but while it will be cleaner in the morning it will also be smaller... fortunately more swell fills starts filling in later in the day.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of S-SW swell (190-220) with some of the energy fading out and new energy filling in. There will be a touch of NW windswell in the background but not much to make a difference.



Most SW facing spots will be in the waist-chest high range. Standout SW facing spots in OC, LA, and SD (sounds like a disorder), will be in the chest to inconsistent shoulder high range through the morning but will see some more-consistent bigger sets by the afternoon.

Conditions look cleaner as the slight eddy circulation backs down and we see light and variable winds through the morning. More WNW winds around 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon. Check out the NWS model for tomorrow morning at 8am.



The surf will be fun on Thursday...not great or anything...but playful at the right spots. Like a lot of the Southern Hemi energy we have see over the last week it looks like the points and reefs will have the best shape...while the beach breaks stay a bit walled and sectiony. Good sandbars/piers/jetties that can break up the swell will be worth looking at if you can’t get to a point and reef.

Here are the tides...

06:38AM LDT -0.2 L
01:23PM LDT 3.4 H
05:36PM LDT 2.7 L
11:32PM LDT 4.9 H

Monday’s Surf – Fading swell but worth a check

Monday will be a surf day…nothing great…but the winds will be a bit better than they have been.

Our swell will be a mix of fading S swell (180-200), some weaker SW energy (200-220), and some local NW windswell. The S in particular will be losing energy throughout the day and will be fading completely out over the next couple of days.



Most spots will have surf in the waist-chest high range with some chest high+ sets at times. The standout S facing spots and the good combo breaks, in OC and San Diego, will have some chest-shoulder high surf, again with a couple of rare bigger sets on the lower tides.

Winds will be decent through the morning…mostly light and variable throughout SoCal. W winds around 10-15 knots move back in through the afternoon.

Like I said it won’t be great or anything tomorrow but there will be a little bit of swell leftover and the winds will be ok…so there will be a few playful peaks at the better exposed breaks. I actually think that the exposed beach breaks will have the most size and consistency, especially those that can pull in the mix of swell...but the points and reefs will likely still be playful as well.

Here are a couple of pictures that I shot late last week (Thursday) as the swell was hitting in the morning. Thanks to the stupid eddy the light was bad and I was too cold (and lazy) to get far from the truck…so they aren’t the greatest photos…anyway just thought I would share.





Here are the tides for Monday.

05:49AM LDT -1.1 L
12:14PM LDT 3.3 H
04:47PM LDT 2.0 L
11:04PM LDT 6.0 H

Waves for the weekend – better conditions and tasty waves

Well I don’t know about “tasty” waves (I have seen what is usually floating out there)...but both Saturday and Sunday are going to be surf days.

Conditions are going to improve quite a bit as this cold front moves out later Friday night. By Saturday we are going to see a mix of still healthy, but steeply swell-angled NW windswell, some background S-SW energy from a couple of small SPAC storms, as well as a touch of longer-period NW swell from the North Pacific.

On Saturday morning we can expect the average spots to see consistent chest high surf with some less consistent shoulder high sets mixing in. Top NW facing surf spots, mostly through San Diego (but in Ventura and the South Bay as well ), we will see consistent head high sets with some overhead peaks mixing in on the better sandbars. Expect to lose some size at most spots as the NW windswell backs off slowly through the day.

Sunday will be a bit smaller but shape may improve as the shorter swell-periods groom out. There will still be the mix of windswell, S-SW energy and WNW swell...just a little more long-period energy and less local windswell. We can still expect surf in the chest high range for most spots with some inconsistent chest high+ sets. Top combo breaks, in Orange County and San Diego, will have some shoulder high+ sets.

Winds on both days are looking pretty good. Light and variable to light offshore for the mornings...and then the normal moderate onshore for the afternoons (W-NW around 10-14 knots).

Check out the COAMPS for both days’ dawn patrols.

Saturday



Sunday



I think that top sandbars are going to be the call this weekend...the combo swell usually works pretty good at the beach breaks but the shorter period windswell needs a little help standing up, a bathometric Viagra if you will, so some extra sand will work a little better. The points/reefs could be fun too just don’t expect long sections, it will be a bit broken up. San Diego is going to have the most size throughout SoCal...but most areas should have some spots working so it won’t be worth driving very far. Overall I think we can have some fun if we hit it early, and just appreciate that conditions are total poop anymore.

Here are the tides...have a good weekend!

Saturday
05:33AM LDT 4.7 H
12:50PM LDT -0.5 L
07:21PM LDT 4.1 H

Sunday
12:56AM LDT 1.5 L
06:39AM LDT 4.9 H
01:31PM LDT -0.5 L
07:50PM LDT 4.6 H

Waves for Wednesday – building swell mix

Wednesday is looking more like a surf day than we have had in a while. It won’t be great…but the swell is finally starting to come up and winds are forecast to be light…which is about the most positive thing I have put in the forecast for like ever.

We are going to see a mix of steep NW swell (290-300) and some increasing (but still small) SW swell (190-210). Once the tide sort of evens out most spots will have surf in the knee-waist high range with a few waist high+ sets by the afternoon.

The standout NW facing breaks and the top combo breaks will have some waist-chest high sets on the lower tides and maybe a few bigger waves through the end of the day.

Winds are forecast to be light…even light/variable to light-offshore for the early morning and then stay pretty light, below 10-knots, for the afternoon. Check out the COAMPS winds for the morning…



Now I wouldn’t expect a ton of size or consistency tomorrow…especially as we try to power through the higher tides in the morning. I would still stick to the gear that is going to help you catch waves in smaller surf. Personally I would probably stick to some of the combo beach breaks…something that does well on local windswell and is exposed to the building S-SSW swells. I would try and keep an open mind since there won’t be a grip of waves…but the conditions finally starting to come back together is a lot more promising than the last couple of weeks.

Here are the tides…

04:02AM LDT 0.0 L
09:56AM LDT 5.3 H
04:17PM LDT -0.3 L
10:23PM LDT 5.3 H

Surf for Friday – leftovers and steep NW swell

Friday is looking more like a surf day.

We are going to have a few tide issues in the morning but there should be some rideable, but leftover WNW energy, local windswell, some background SW swell, and a new (but really steep) NW swell (290-300...really 295-300+). Here is a closer look at the current CDIP model...these are the local images (they are actually generated using a different set of buoys compared to the “full socal” version of this model)...I thought I would throw them up to break up the scenery a little.









For all that different swell activity it isn’t going to be all that big. We can expect more surf in the waist-chest high range at the average WNW facing spots and the better combo breaks.

The top combo spots and the really exposed NW winter spots can expect surf more consistently in the chest-high+ range with some inconsistent shoulder high+ sets pushing through at times.

Winds and weather should be better on Friday. The high-pressure is building back in tonight and winds are expected to go light and variable for tomorrow morning...staying below 5 knots for the morning. Winds do come onshore more in the afternoon but generally stay out of the WNW-NW around 10-12 knots. The one exception is up around Santa Barbara and Northern Ventura...looks like moderate NW winds hold most of the day...even through the morning.

Friday looks like we will get a few fun waves for most spots...nothing huge, or even that good shape, just sort of fun. The tide will be a bit of an issue in the morning so stick with spots that can handle a little water.

Also if you are looking for more size you are going to want to check out the more exposed winter breaks...even though that NW swell is sort of out of our swell window it has a little energy that will wrap around the corner and mix into our other swell... so if you are in SD or Ventura it might be worth hunting around the really exposed winter spots. It won’t be worth driving very far but if it only adds a couple of minutes to the search you might get lucky.

Here are the tides...

04:13AM LST 0.6 L
10:03AM LST 4.3 H
04:15PM LST 0.5 L
10:26PM LST 4.9 H