Waves for the Weekend – Fun Saturday morning and then things get weird

Saturday will be surfable, particularly if you don’t mind the surf being on the smaller side. A new storm moves in Saturday afternoon/evening and holds into Sunday were it makes the conditions get all fugly.

Saturday will see a mix of fading WNW-NW energy, some long-period but very steeply angled NW swell (295-300+), and some playful/inconsistent SSW-SW swell (190-220).



Most spots will see surf in the knee-waist high range on Saturday with some waist-chest high sets at the better combo breaks, and even a couple chest-shoulder peaks setting up at the standout NW/SW combo spots.

Winds look good for the morning…mostly light/variable to light easterly for the dawn patrol…and a little ESE-SE flow around San Diego. These winds will stay light through midday and then start to shift to the S-SW around 15-20 knots by late in the afternoon...expect some rain to come along with the switch as well.



Sunday the local windswell comes up a couple of notches but the wind comes along with it…we will also have the steeper NW’er, the WNW-NW leftovers, and the background SSW-SW swell.



The surf will continue to be in the waist-high range for most of the average spots…with some more consistent chest high sets mixing it at spots with more exposure to the windswell. The standout NW breaks and the excellent combo spots will see some chest-shoulder high surf, possibly even a couple of bigger sets. Unfortunately shape doesn’t look that great since there will be all sorts of really short-period chop sloshing around…it will end up being one of those days where you will have to sacrifice surf size for cleaner shape…which is a sucky trade in my book.

Who the f_@k knows what the wind is going to do on Sunday…the storm that has been threatening to move into Socal will finally be here and none of the models know where it is going, or how fast it might move through. Check out the COAMPS for Sunday morning…this is how a model just shrugs its shoulders and goes out drinking.



As you can see it is forecasting some sort of crazy mutant eddy…with pretty stiff onshore winds for OC and all spots southward…and then offshore winds from the South Bay on north (until you get to the central coast then it is onshore again?). Really I would just keep your eye on conditions, check the weather stations and the surf cams, and if it looks manageable then go get some. Saturday will be much cleaner…but with as tweaked as this model is I don’t think I would completely write-off Sunday yet.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/06/2010 Saturday
12:31AM LST 4.8 H
08:28AM LST 0.5 L
03:18PM LST 2.6 H
06:31PM LST 2.4 L

03/07/2010 Sunday
01:41AM LST 4.4 H
10:09AM LST 0.5 L
05:53PM LST 2.9 H
08:36PM LST 2.8 L

Thursday’s Surf – Dropping WNW-NW swell and increasing NW winds

At first glance Thursday doesn’t look like much of a surf day…but after looking at it a little closer there may be a few little surf windows that open up in the morning.

The WNW-NW swell (285-300 but with the peak of the energy coming in at 290-300) will be fading on Thursday as it mixes with some building NW windswell and some new background SW swell (200-220). There will still be plenty of swell in the water but overall it will feel smaller and less consistent compared to Wednesday.



Average WNW facing spots will be in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets showing on the lower tides. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will be in the shoulder-overhead range with sets going a couple of feet overhead in the morning…but becoming a little less consistent and smaller throughout the afternoon.

Winds don’t look great on Thursday…neither does the weather when you get right down to it…but really who cares about a little rain/drizzle at this point. It looks like NW flow will start up pretty early on Thursday (if it ever backs down from Wednesday night)…the strongest winds, NW winds around 10-15 knots, will be up around Santa Barbara, Ventura, and down through parts of South San Diego. LA and OC will have similar NW winds but speeds look a bit lighter…mostly below 10-knots for the morning along with a couple of semi-clean looking pockets showing through North LA and North OC. NW winds 15-20+ knots will be on tap through the afternoon.



Once again we can’t quite get all of the pieces to come together…we have decent tides, plenty of swell, but the wind/weather is going to funk things up. I wouldn’t spend a ton of time looking for waves tomorrow but if you have a spot with some NW wind protection close by it might be worth giving it a check in the morning. Points/reefs will continue to have the best shape…but there may be a little more NW/SW combo as the WNW-NW’er backs off and the new SW’er fills in a touch more.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/04/2010 Thursday
05:52AM LST 0.1 L
11:46AM LST 3.6 H
05:16PM LST 1.2 L
11:40PM LST 5.1 H

Surf for Friday – Fading WNW swell and approaching rain

Despite what the title says…Friday looks like a surf day.

Our WNW swell (285-300…but mostly 290-300) will be on the way down but should still manage to send in some fun waves to the exposed spots. In the background we can expect a mix of smaller local windswell and a weak touch of SW swell.



The average exposed spots are going to see surf in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high sets still showing at times. The better WNW-NW facing spots will hold more in the chest-head high range with some much less consistent overhead sets. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly in San Diego, will be running chest-head high but with more consistent overhead+ waves still mixing in. Tide will be a little fat through the morning but will improve as we head toward lunch.

Winds look ok…sort of E-ESE in the morning…shifting more S-SE by midday and into the afternoon. Wind speeds hold around 10-12 knots early but then build more 10-15+ knots by the afternoon. Look for increasing cloudiness and the chance of rain moving in for the second part of the day.



So there will still be plenty of surf on tap for Friday…nothing huge, but still fun if you can find the right spot. I would try and get on it around midmorning…but keep an eye on the winds, you might want to push out into the still thick tide before the winds start to switch around too much.

Here are the tides…

12/11/2009 Friday
05:01AM LST 5.6 H
12:15PM LST 0.3 L
06:11PM LST 3.4 H
11:15PM LST 1.7 L

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 12/10/2009

Forecast Overview

Looks like fading WNW swell on tap for Friday and into the weekend while a local cold front moves in and cranks out some more rain. Conditions look surfable through Friday midday but building S winds and rain will hamper shape through the afternoon and through both Saturday and Sunday.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
The WNW swell (285-300 but still with most of the energy around 290-300) will continue to wind down. The WNW’er will be mixing with some background local windswell and trace SW energy. Most exposed spots will drop back into the chest-shoulder high range though a few of the better than average areas will have some head high sets on the lower tides. Standout NW breaks, mostly in San Diego, but at a few in Ventura and the South Bay as well, will see consistent chest-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in at times. Winds/Weather: A new storm front is supposed to move in throughout the day but it looks like winds won’t get too funky right out of the gate. Look for E-SE winds around 10-15 knots for most areas and then building S-SE winds 10-15+ knots as well as some rain for the afternoon.



Saturday
It looks a bit sloppy on Saturday as more storm activity, rain and onshore wind, continues to push through Socal. Our swell mix will be the back end of the dropping WNW swell (290-300) and some local windswell/chop being stirred up by the storm. Average spots will hold around waist-chest high while those NW standouts still see some chest-head high waves with a few plus sets mixing in at the San Diego NW standouts. Winds/Weather: S-SW winds on tap for the morning, particularly up by Santa Barbara/Ventura, with speeds around 10-15+ knots. SW-W winds 10-20 knots move in later in the day. It will be raining most of the day but watch for a few small surf-pockets in the South Bay, SD, and OC through the morning.



Sunday
Looks pretty craptacular in today’s forecast run. Onshore winds and mostly leftover swell mix won’t be doing us any favors. Look for a blend of leftover WNW energy, local windswell/chop, and the ever-present background SW swell. Most spots will see poor shaped waist-chest high surf, standout NW facing breaks will see poor-shaped chest-shoulder high surf. Good times. Winds/Weather: W-WSW winds around 10-15 knots will hold for most areas, while the most exposed areas see gusts around 15-20 knots at times. Good day to stay in bed.



Monday
Conditions improve on Monday but there won’t be a ton of new swell and after all the rain the water quality will probably continue to suck. Swellwise we can expect an increase in WNW energy, both in terms of short-period windswell and some medium period energy from the system while it was a little further off the coast. Wave heights will be in the waist-chest high range at most WNW facing spots. Standout winter areas will be around the chest-shoulder high+ range…with some inconsistent head high sets mixing in. Winds/Weather: High pressure tries to build over the region…winds should lighten up in the morning…but will come back onshore by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
As you probably read in the short-range part of the forecast…the WNW swell will be trailing off through the end of the week…but won’t really drop completely away as we see some reinforcement WNW energy from the approaching storm fronts that helps to string it along. Conditions will get pretty nasty over the weekend as well.





Further Out we have a storm forming up NE of Hawaii in the next couple of days that will send out some new WNW-NW swell (285-300) that will move in early next week…it sort of pairs up with some local winds to hold short-medium period energy into Monday…and then some cleaner, mostly medium period swell, into the middle of next week, peaking on the 15-16th. This one looks good for about chest-shoulder high surf at the average spots, and a few head high+ sets at the standout NW breaks.

Even Further Out the storm track remains very active (but very unstable as well)…at this point the long-range charts are hinting at some more NW swell for around the 17-18th …and possibly a slightly more W swell around the 19th. Looks like drier conditions, possibly even some light Santa Ana flow setting up through the middle of next week. These are a few days from forming so check back as we get closer.

South Pacific
This may be the most boring ocean ever…a small pulse of SW swell will move in around the 12th and then taper off through the middle of the month. Not much past chest high expected from this region at this time.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, December 14th, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Waves for Wednesday - A few leftover waves for Hump Day

Wednesday will be another surf day. It will have some issues with the tide, and possibly some more of that silly fog in the morning...but overall there will still be a few fun waves sneaking through at the exposed spots.

I heard a bunch of reports from our surf clan out there today that made it sound pretty fun. I even snagged a pretty fun-looking sunset session off of one of the San Diego surf cams. Check it out...



Swellwise the current WNW'er we have doing most of the work will be backing down leaving us with mostly WNW leftovers and small background pulse of SW swell. It won't be flat or anything but overall it will be smaller and less consistent.

Average spots can expect surf in the waist high range with a few waist high+ sets.

Standout NW facing breaks, mostly through San Diego but also creeping into a couple of the better winter combo spots in other regions as well, will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range on inconsistent sets.

Winds look good...mostly light and variable with a few areas of light offshore flow in the morning. Looks like overcast skies still, maybe some areas of fog...then slightly clearer skies by the afternoon. Winds stay light most of the day but will get some slight onshore bump by the second part of the day.

Expect just sort of small and playful surf for most areas tomorrow. It will be a good excuse to break out the fish or the other small wave gear and have some fun. The top spots will be a little speedier and have a little more punch but in general it won't be very critical. The tide is going to hurt it a bit more as the swell drops so try to avoid the peak of the high if you can.

Here are the tides...

01:58AM LST 3.5 H
05:30AM LST 3.2 L
11:18AM LST 4.5 H
07:24PM LST 0.5 L

Oh and a couple of notes on the long-range forecast...we will be getting another decent round of WNW swell moving in later on Thursday and peaking Friday/Saturday. This looks like it will be followed by another pulse of WNW energy on the 7-8th (and we may see a bigger SSW swell at the same time...hmmm can you say combo swell?). I will throw up some more details over the next couple of days.

Tuesday's Surf - Fading WNW swell buried in more fog

Tuesday will be another surf day. The swell is fading and we are going to have some more light but funky winds through the morning but there will still be enough energy that you should be able to pick off a few fun ones.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of fading WNW swell (285-300 degrees, with a lot of the energy above the 290 mark). There will also be a touch of background S-SW swells from the Southern Hemi.

Most spots will be around waist-chest high with a few shoulder high sets at the better W facing spots and combo breaks.

The standout NW facing spots, mostly through Southern San Diego, will have consistent shoulder-head high surf with a few overhead sets through the morning before the high tide gets a solid grip.

Winds generally look ok...mostly light but with a variable onshore texture for most areas. The fog will continue to hang around too so look for cooler and breezier conditions as the banks shift around. Stupid fog. W winds will be onshore around 10-12+ knots for the afternoon. Here is a shot of the NWS winds but it doesn't do the variable fog texture much justice.



There will still be plenty of waves coming through from this swell but it won't be as punchy or consistent as it has been. If you surf try and stick to the NW facing spots that can handle a little more tide...these breaks will have more surfable shape longer compared to other spots. SD, southern SD in particular, will have the biggest and most consistent surf...it probably won't be worth driving thanks to the fog and the wind but if you are already in the area and like bigger waves that is going to be your best bet.

Here are the tides...have fun

12:58AM LST 3.3 H
04:22AM LST 3.0 L
10:32AM LST 4.9 H
06:37PM LST 0.3 L