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Showing posts with label Combo swell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Combo swell. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Surf Photos – A few from the mid-morning session
If only we were 2" tall...then it would be easy to build an artificial pointbreak.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Waves for the Weekend – Conditions improve and there will still be some swell (but the water temps will still make your ‘nads fall off)
Saturday and Sunday both look like surf days…though the winds look a little better on Sunday (at least they stay cleaner longer than it does on Saturday).
Saturday will see a mix of dropping, but still decently sized NW windswell and some peaking SSW-SW swell (190-220). There will be rideable waves most exposed places…but expect the biggest surf at spots that are well-exposed to both swells (and like the combo mix).
Average breaks can expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout NW facing spots will be shoulder-head high with some plus sets showing on the morning tide push. The best SW facing spots, particularly the combo breaks, will have more consistent shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in on the good tide push.
Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day. I don’t expect the morning to be super clean everywhere…if your beach is wide open there is a shot that there will be a bit of texture/crumble to things.
The SSW-SW swell continues to hold on Sunday while the local windswell drops off.
Look for the average spots, thanks to the dropping windswell, to slip down into the waist-chest range with a few plus sets sneaking through at the better combo spots. The best SW facing breaks, and the excellent combo spots (mostly in South OC and parts of San Diego), will be more in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent head high+ sets on the tide push.
A little eddy starts to spin up on Sunday…nothing super strong…but possibly centered around Catalina or San Clemente island, which would push light S-SSE winds into San Diego and Southern OC. Spots further north look cleaner…mostly E-ENE through the morning. All breaks see the springy WNW-NW winds push in through the afternoon with the well exposed breaks topping around near 12-15 knots.
While the weekend won’t be outstanding it will be a definite improvement compared to the last couple of days…and there are a few little bonuses that will help us out. The mix of swells leaves less “shadowed” areas, so the crowd can spread out a bit. Winds will be pretty light throughout the day on Sunday…which means that we won’t have to all crush up the dawn patrol. And lastly the tides are pretty manageable for both days…a negative low-tide in the early morning but it fills in pretty quickly and doesn’t quite hit the “swampthing” level. Anyway…I will be out checking my nearby beach breaks both days…I hope you guys get a chance to get in the water as well. Oh and remember that all that wind dropped the ocean temps about 4-5 degrees…so you might want to throw the winter/water gear in the car…just in case you don’t like ice-cream headaches
Here are the tides…have a great weekend!
05/01/2010 Saturday
06:16AM LDT -0.7 L
12:47PM LDT 3.3 H
05:12PM LDT 2.2 L
11:23PM LDT 5.3 H
05/02/2010 Sunday
07:08AM LDT -0.3 L
01:56PM LDT 3.1 H
05:55PM LDT 2.5 L
Saturday will see a mix of dropping, but still decently sized NW windswell and some peaking SSW-SW swell (190-220). There will be rideable waves most exposed places…but expect the biggest surf at spots that are well-exposed to both swells (and like the combo mix).
Average breaks can expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout NW facing spots will be shoulder-head high with some plus sets showing on the morning tide push. The best SW facing spots, particularly the combo breaks, will have more consistent shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in on the good tide push.
Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day. I don’t expect the morning to be super clean everywhere…if your beach is wide open there is a shot that there will be a bit of texture/crumble to things.
The SSW-SW swell continues to hold on Sunday while the local windswell drops off.
Look for the average spots, thanks to the dropping windswell, to slip down into the waist-chest range with a few plus sets sneaking through at the better combo spots. The best SW facing breaks, and the excellent combo spots (mostly in South OC and parts of San Diego), will be more in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent head high+ sets on the tide push.
A little eddy starts to spin up on Sunday…nothing super strong…but possibly centered around Catalina or San Clemente island, which would push light S-SSE winds into San Diego and Southern OC. Spots further north look cleaner…mostly E-ENE through the morning. All breaks see the springy WNW-NW winds push in through the afternoon with the well exposed breaks topping around near 12-15 knots.
While the weekend won’t be outstanding it will be a definite improvement compared to the last couple of days…and there are a few little bonuses that will help us out. The mix of swells leaves less “shadowed” areas, so the crowd can spread out a bit. Winds will be pretty light throughout the day on Sunday…which means that we won’t have to all crush up the dawn patrol. And lastly the tides are pretty manageable for both days…a negative low-tide in the early morning but it fills in pretty quickly and doesn’t quite hit the “swampthing” level. Anyway…I will be out checking my nearby beach breaks both days…I hope you guys get a chance to get in the water as well. Oh and remember that all that wind dropped the ocean temps about 4-5 degrees…so you might want to throw the winter/water gear in the car…just in case you don’t like ice-cream headaches
Here are the tides…have a great weekend!
05/01/2010 Saturday
06:16AM LDT -0.7 L
12:47PM LDT 3.3 H
05:12PM LDT 2.2 L
11:23PM LDT 5.3 H
05/02/2010 Sunday
07:08AM LDT -0.3 L
01:56PM LDT 3.1 H
05:55PM LDT 2.5 L
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/29/2010
Forecast Overview
The nasty winds will finally start to back off tonight and it looks like they are going to stay light as we move into the weekend. Shape and conditions will improve as we head into the weekend, which is nice because it is just in time for more SW swell to move in from the Southern Hemi.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday – (breaking the wind)
Conditions start to improve on Friday…not totally clean up…but definitely better than what we had on Thursday. In the water we will have a mix of holding WNW-NW windswell and some peaking SSW-SW swell (190-220). Most spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range, while the better NW and SW facing breaks see some less consistent bigger sets. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly in San Diego, will see stacked up, lumpy overhead+ windswell. The best SW facing breaks will be head high+ on the inconsistent sets. I don’t expect the greatest shape since there is so much short-period energy sloshing around, but if you have a spot that can groom out some of that energy, or it just generally breaks better on windswells, then those areas will probably be the best call. Winds/Weather: Look for light winds in the morning…there may be a little onshore texture here and there…but overall winds will be below 5 knots. Look for onshore WNW-NW winds to build in later in the day…eventually pushing up into the 10-15 knot range.
Saturday – (Fading windswell but a touch more Southern Hemi)
The surf continues to improve on Saturday as the local winds even out a bit more and the even though the windswell backs off, it grooms out some of the junk and manages to hold onto some of the more “surfable” parts of the swell. The SSW-SW swell (190-220) continues to hold…and even gets a little bit more reinforcing energy that will help to keep the summer spots in fun-size surf. Average breaks can expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout NW facing spots will be shoulder-head high with some plus sets showing on the morning tide push. The best SW facing spots, particularly the combo breaks, will have more consistent shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in on the good tide push. Winds/Weather: Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day. There may be some pockets of fog early…but it should burn off by midday.
Sunday – (more combo energy)
The SSW-SW swell continues to hold on Sunday while the local windswell drops off. Look for the average spots to slip down into the waist-chest range with a few plus sets sneaking through at the good combo spots. The best SW facing breaks, and the excellent combo spots (mostly in South OC and parts of San Diego), will be more in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent head high+ sets on the tide push. Winds/Weather: A little eddy starts to spin up on Sunday…nothing super strong…but possibly centered around Catalina which would push light S-SSE winds into San Diego and Southern OC. Spots further north look cleaner…mostly E-ENE through the morning. All breaks see the springy WNW-NW winds push in through the afternoon with the well exposed breaks topping around near 12-15 knots.
Monday – (more combo love)
The windswell continues to back off on Monday…but another pulse of SSW-SW swell moves in and mixes with the Southern Hemi blend (180-210) that will still be hanging around from the weekend. Expect the WNW-NW facing spots to lose more size…holding in the waist high range with a few rare bigger sets. The SW facing breaks will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with a few of the standout SW facing breaks, mostly in South OC, seeing some inconsistent head high+ sets. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds through the morning with some pockets of texture around the wind-prone areas. The afternoon winds pick up out of the NW around 10-15 knots.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Not much showing in the NPAC in the latest forecast run…we will see the strong wind gradient (you know…the one that is trashing the surf here on Thursday) start to shift around and weaken as high-pressure starts to develop over the region.
This increasing high-pressure is actually stretching across to Hawaii, with another fairly strong ridge developing over the western half of the North Pacific. Check it out…
This my friends, is a pretty typical spring/early summer pressure pattern for the North Pacific…and once those two ridges of pressure get entrenched it is pretty difficult to push them out of the way. You guys might hear me refer to this sort of set-up as a “double-barrel” high-pressure…and yes it is a bad thing for helping make surf.
At this point, with these highs moving into place I am not expecting any sort of significant storm to form in our swell window over the next week or so. There may be an increase in local windswell if the eastern high moves a little further off the coast…but for the most part the NPAC is looking pretty boring.
South Pacific
Plenty of energy on the way from the South Pacific…there has been a pretty consistent stream of storms moving through both our S and SW swell windows and thanks to that activity we can expect a series of overlapping pulses that will keep the S facing breaks alive with chest-shoulder high+ surf through the weekend.
SSW-SW (190-220) has been arriving over the last couple of days but it has mostly been swallowed up by this stupid onshore wind. Fortunately this swell has some legs and the main portion of the energy is going to arrive in a couple of overlapping pulses that peak on Friday, hold into early Saturday, and then slowly back down Sunday/Monday. Like I said in the short-range portion of the forecast… this one looks good for consistent chest-shoulder high surf at the average spots and a few overhead sets at the standout SW breaks as it peaks.
That nice looking storm that I was watching waaaaay out in the charts in my last long-range forecast actually managed to pull together over the last few days (and I didn’t even have to bribe it with tootsie pops like I do with my 5-year old). Check it out on the Jason-1 satellite…(a big thanks to Mark Sponsler, who lets me poach his www.Stormsurf.com charts…make sure to visit his site when you get a chance).
Like I mentioned before this storm is showing a lot of good qualities. It is positioned in a non-shadowed area of the SPAC, it has some strong South-to-North movement, it gets a bunch of extra-tropical energy bridging through the mid-latitudes as it really pulls together, and it is 1000+ miles closer than the last bigger storm…all of which are good things. The winds aren’t super strong…WINDsat had some 35-45 knots in core…but it looks like the proximity and duration of the storm (as well as the movement) will help overcome its lack of intensity.
At this point I am looking for new S-SSW swell (180-200) to move in late on May 4th…but then peak on May 5-6th…likely holding some smaller but still surfable energy into the following weekend. Most S facing spots will see consistent chest-shoulder high surf from this one…but the standout S facing spots, pretty much just in Orange County, will have some sets going a couple of feet overhead as it peaks…the focal breaks (spots that really pull in this sort of swell) will probably have some bigger sizes at times.
the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, May 3rd, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
The nasty winds will finally start to back off tonight and it looks like they are going to stay light as we move into the weekend. Shape and conditions will improve as we head into the weekend, which is nice because it is just in time for more SW swell to move in from the Southern Hemi.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday – (breaking the wind)
Conditions start to improve on Friday…not totally clean up…but definitely better than what we had on Thursday. In the water we will have a mix of holding WNW-NW windswell and some peaking SSW-SW swell (190-220). Most spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range, while the better NW and SW facing breaks see some less consistent bigger sets. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly in San Diego, will see stacked up, lumpy overhead+ windswell. The best SW facing breaks will be head high+ on the inconsistent sets. I don’t expect the greatest shape since there is so much short-period energy sloshing around, but if you have a spot that can groom out some of that energy, or it just generally breaks better on windswells, then those areas will probably be the best call. Winds/Weather: Look for light winds in the morning…there may be a little onshore texture here and there…but overall winds will be below 5 knots. Look for onshore WNW-NW winds to build in later in the day…eventually pushing up into the 10-15 knot range.
Saturday – (Fading windswell but a touch more Southern Hemi)
The surf continues to improve on Saturday as the local winds even out a bit more and the even though the windswell backs off, it grooms out some of the junk and manages to hold onto some of the more “surfable” parts of the swell. The SSW-SW swell (190-220) continues to hold…and even gets a little bit more reinforcing energy that will help to keep the summer spots in fun-size surf. Average breaks can expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout NW facing spots will be shoulder-head high with some plus sets showing on the morning tide push. The best SW facing spots, particularly the combo breaks, will have more consistent shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in on the good tide push. Winds/Weather: Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day. There may be some pockets of fog early…but it should burn off by midday.
Sunday – (more combo energy)
The SSW-SW swell continues to hold on Sunday while the local windswell drops off. Look for the average spots to slip down into the waist-chest range with a few plus sets sneaking through at the good combo spots. The best SW facing breaks, and the excellent combo spots (mostly in South OC and parts of San Diego), will be more in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent head high+ sets on the tide push. Winds/Weather: A little eddy starts to spin up on Sunday…nothing super strong…but possibly centered around Catalina which would push light S-SSE winds into San Diego and Southern OC. Spots further north look cleaner…mostly E-ENE through the morning. All breaks see the springy WNW-NW winds push in through the afternoon with the well exposed breaks topping around near 12-15 knots.
Monday – (more combo love)
The windswell continues to back off on Monday…but another pulse of SSW-SW swell moves in and mixes with the Southern Hemi blend (180-210) that will still be hanging around from the weekend. Expect the WNW-NW facing spots to lose more size…holding in the waist high range with a few rare bigger sets. The SW facing breaks will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with a few of the standout SW facing breaks, mostly in South OC, seeing some inconsistent head high+ sets. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds through the morning with some pockets of texture around the wind-prone areas. The afternoon winds pick up out of the NW around 10-15 knots.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Not much showing in the NPAC in the latest forecast run…we will see the strong wind gradient (you know…the one that is trashing the surf here on Thursday) start to shift around and weaken as high-pressure starts to develop over the region.
This increasing high-pressure is actually stretching across to Hawaii, with another fairly strong ridge developing over the western half of the North Pacific. Check it out…
This my friends, is a pretty typical spring/early summer pressure pattern for the North Pacific…and once those two ridges of pressure get entrenched it is pretty difficult to push them out of the way. You guys might hear me refer to this sort of set-up as a “double-barrel” high-pressure…and yes it is a bad thing for helping make surf.
At this point, with these highs moving into place I am not expecting any sort of significant storm to form in our swell window over the next week or so. There may be an increase in local windswell if the eastern high moves a little further off the coast…but for the most part the NPAC is looking pretty boring.
South Pacific
Plenty of energy on the way from the South Pacific…there has been a pretty consistent stream of storms moving through both our S and SW swell windows and thanks to that activity we can expect a series of overlapping pulses that will keep the S facing breaks alive with chest-shoulder high+ surf through the weekend.
SSW-SW (190-220) has been arriving over the last couple of days but it has mostly been swallowed up by this stupid onshore wind. Fortunately this swell has some legs and the main portion of the energy is going to arrive in a couple of overlapping pulses that peak on Friday, hold into early Saturday, and then slowly back down Sunday/Monday. Like I said in the short-range portion of the forecast… this one looks good for consistent chest-shoulder high surf at the average spots and a few overhead sets at the standout SW breaks as it peaks.
That nice looking storm that I was watching waaaaay out in the charts in my last long-range forecast actually managed to pull together over the last few days (and I didn’t even have to bribe it with tootsie pops like I do with my 5-year old). Check it out on the Jason-1 satellite…(a big thanks to Mark Sponsler, who lets me poach his www.Stormsurf.com charts…make sure to visit his site when you get a chance).
Like I mentioned before this storm is showing a lot of good qualities. It is positioned in a non-shadowed area of the SPAC, it has some strong South-to-North movement, it gets a bunch of extra-tropical energy bridging through the mid-latitudes as it really pulls together, and it is 1000+ miles closer than the last bigger storm…all of which are good things. The winds aren’t super strong…WINDsat had some 35-45 knots in core…but it looks like the proximity and duration of the storm (as well as the movement) will help overcome its lack of intensity.
At this point I am looking for new S-SSW swell (180-200) to move in late on May 4th…but then peak on May 5-6th…likely holding some smaller but still surfable energy into the following weekend. Most S facing spots will see consistent chest-shoulder high surf from this one…but the standout S facing spots, pretty much just in Orange County, will have some sets going a couple of feet overhead as it peaks…the focal breaks (spots that really pull in this sort of swell) will probably have some bigger sizes at times.
the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, May 3rd, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
Monday, April 26, 2010
Monday’s Surf – if the forecast is posted as 1:15am is it still a forecast?
Monday will be rideable but there since I have had to take the dog out to poop like 14 times tonight I have had a chance to watch the wind a bit…and in South HB you can feel the eddy spinning around a little.
At this point I expect the eddy to lighten up but stay consistent throughout the first part of the day…so while it will be rideable, spots that are susceptible to southerly winds will have a little texture…maybe even enough to keep those open spots a bit crumbly.
Swellwise we are going to have a mix of S-SW swells (mostly SW now…205-220) and some background, fading WNW-NW windswell. You can see how the swell is hitting the Oceanside buoy this evening (ok middle of the night).
Sizewise most spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some occasional bigger sets on the lower tides. The tide will keep things pretty swampy so try and bring gear that will let you have a little more fun with softer/mushier surf. The standout areas, mostly South South OC and parts of Northern SD, will be more consistently in the chest high range but wuth some shoulder high sets mixing in on those lower tides again.
Like I said above…look for overcast skies and a bit of southerly SSE flow early on and then more, building S-SW winds around 10-12 knots through midmorning. These wind eventually shift more westerly around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.
Un fortunately we are back in the race between the tide and the wind…but you will have a much better shot at at getting waves at surf at spots with a bit more wind protection and the ablility to push some rideable shape through the lower tides.
Here are the tides…here is a good start to the week!
Here are the tides…
04/26/2010 Monday
02:31AM LDT -0.3 L
08:26AM LDT 4.4 H
02:16PM LDT 0.5 L
08:24PM LDT 5.9 H
At this point I expect the eddy to lighten up but stay consistent throughout the first part of the day…so while it will be rideable, spots that are susceptible to southerly winds will have a little texture…maybe even enough to keep those open spots a bit crumbly.
Swellwise we are going to have a mix of S-SW swells (mostly SW now…205-220) and some background, fading WNW-NW windswell. You can see how the swell is hitting the Oceanside buoy this evening (ok middle of the night).
Sizewise most spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some occasional bigger sets on the lower tides. The tide will keep things pretty swampy so try and bring gear that will let you have a little more fun with softer/mushier surf. The standout areas, mostly South South OC and parts of Northern SD, will be more consistently in the chest high range but wuth some shoulder high sets mixing in on those lower tides again.
Like I said above…look for overcast skies and a bit of southerly SSE flow early on and then more, building S-SW winds around 10-12 knots through midmorning. These wind eventually shift more westerly around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.
Un fortunately we are back in the race between the tide and the wind…but you will have a much better shot at at getting waves at surf at spots with a bit more wind protection and the ablility to push some rideable shape through the lower tides.
Here are the tides…here is a good start to the week!
Here are the tides…
04/26/2010 Monday
02:31AM LDT -0.3 L
08:26AM LDT 4.4 H
02:16PM LDT 0.5 L
08:24PM LDT 5.9 H
Friday, April 23, 2010
Waves for the Weekend – Mix of S-SW and NW swell and some nice weather
Looks like we are going to be able to find some surf on both Saturday and Sunday this weekend. The tide may cause a few issues in the mornings of each day but winds should stay light enough to let us get some still clean waves as it drops.
On Saturday the windswell drops off even more, but the S-SW swell (180-210) fills in more and a new background pulse of NW swell (290-300) work to replace the fading windswell.
Most spots will continue to run around waist-chest high on sets. The well exposed S-SW facing spots will see more waist-shoulder high surf while the standout NW/SW combo spots see some head high+ sets.
Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day.
Sunday more SW swell (190-215) moves in and mixes with the already showing S-SW swell and background NW swell (290-300). The local windswell may come up a touch at the well exposed spots as well.
Look for more consistent chest high surf at the average spots while the standout S-SW combo breaks see shoulder-head high surf with some rare plus sets showing on the lower tides.
Weather looks good with A little bit of eddy starting to spin up on Sunday…but not enough to junk up the morning. Expect light and variable winds for most areas early on and then NW winds around 10-14 knots by the afternoon. Clearing skies and beach temps in the low 70’s should make for a nice day.
Overall the surf won’t be all that big or consistent, but the weather will be warm, the mornings clean, and once we sneak past the morning swampthing we should be able to get a few fun ones showing at the well exposed spots. You can probably get away riding your good ‘all-round’ board…but you might want something that works well in mushier “high-tide” surf if you are stuck just surfing the dawn patrol…that or find a spot that really likes the high tide.
Here are the tides…have a good one!
04/24/2010 Saturday
12:52AM LDT 1.2 L
06:33AM LDT 4.4 H
01:00PM LDT 0.1 L
07:19PM LDT 5.1 H
04/25/2010 Sunday
01:44AM LDT 0.4 L
07:32AM LDT 4.4 H
01:39PM LDT 0.3 L
07:51PM LDT 5.6 H
On Saturday the windswell drops off even more, but the S-SW swell (180-210) fills in more and a new background pulse of NW swell (290-300) work to replace the fading windswell.
Most spots will continue to run around waist-chest high on sets. The well exposed S-SW facing spots will see more waist-shoulder high surf while the standout NW/SW combo spots see some head high+ sets.
Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day.
Sunday more SW swell (190-215) moves in and mixes with the already showing S-SW swell and background NW swell (290-300). The local windswell may come up a touch at the well exposed spots as well.
Look for more consistent chest high surf at the average spots while the standout S-SW combo breaks see shoulder-head high surf with some rare plus sets showing on the lower tides.
Weather looks good with A little bit of eddy starting to spin up on Sunday…but not enough to junk up the morning. Expect light and variable winds for most areas early on and then NW winds around 10-14 knots by the afternoon. Clearing skies and beach temps in the low 70’s should make for a nice day.
Overall the surf won’t be all that big or consistent, but the weather will be warm, the mornings clean, and once we sneak past the morning swampthing we should be able to get a few fun ones showing at the well exposed spots. You can probably get away riding your good ‘all-round’ board…but you might want something that works well in mushier “high-tide” surf if you are stuck just surfing the dawn patrol…that or find a spot that really likes the high tide.
Here are the tides…have a good one!
04/24/2010 Saturday
12:52AM LDT 1.2 L
06:33AM LDT 4.4 H
01:00PM LDT 0.1 L
07:19PM LDT 5.1 H
04/25/2010 Sunday
01:44AM LDT 0.4 L
07:32AM LDT 4.4 H
01:39PM LDT 0.3 L
07:51PM LDT 5.6 H
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Friday’s Surf – Clean morning with some combo swell
Friday will be a surf day.
Look for a mix of fading W-NW windswell (280-300) and some new SSW-SW swell (190-210) jumping into the ongoing mix of swell we have coming out of the Southern Hemi. Conditions will make a considerable clean up as winds lighten and even go light offshore in a few areas for the morning. Expect the water to freeze your ‘nads off at a few spots as well.
With the windswell dropping most of our bigger surf is going to back off fast…but it was an ugly lumpy mess for most areas so having it fade out won’t be the worst thing in the world. Most exposed spots will be in the chest high range while the better S-SW exposed combo spots see some shoulder high sets. The standout NW breaks, again mostly in Southern SD but at the really good NW/SW combo spots as well, will have some head high and even overhead surf through the lower tides earlier in the day.
Look for light and variable winds in the morning…with a few pockets of light offshore flow forming around North LA and North OC…and maybe in some other isolated areas as well. These winds are still a little fragile so don’t expect it too be totally clean all day…the onshore flow will start to drive back in around lunchtime and we can expect some breezy WNW-NW winds around 12-15 knots for most areas by the afternoon.
It looks like the early morning is going to be the best bet windwise…but the tide will be a little high…so we are stuck back in the stupid compromise of clean but swampy surf or textured with a lower tide…you might want to aim for the middle somewhere if your good combo spots like the lower tides.
Here are the tides…
04/23/2010 Friday
05:23AM LDT 4.3 H
12:17PM LDT -0.1 L
06:46PM LDT 4.5 H
Look for a mix of fading W-NW windswell (280-300) and some new SSW-SW swell (190-210) jumping into the ongoing mix of swell we have coming out of the Southern Hemi. Conditions will make a considerable clean up as winds lighten and even go light offshore in a few areas for the morning. Expect the water to freeze your ‘nads off at a few spots as well.
With the windswell dropping most of our bigger surf is going to back off fast…but it was an ugly lumpy mess for most areas so having it fade out won’t be the worst thing in the world. Most exposed spots will be in the chest high range while the better S-SW exposed combo spots see some shoulder high sets. The standout NW breaks, again mostly in Southern SD but at the really good NW/SW combo spots as well, will have some head high and even overhead surf through the lower tides earlier in the day.
Look for light and variable winds in the morning…with a few pockets of light offshore flow forming around North LA and North OC…and maybe in some other isolated areas as well. These winds are still a little fragile so don’t expect it too be totally clean all day…the onshore flow will start to drive back in around lunchtime and we can expect some breezy WNW-NW winds around 12-15 knots for most areas by the afternoon.
It looks like the early morning is going to be the best bet windwise…but the tide will be a little high…so we are stuck back in the stupid compromise of clean but swampy surf or textured with a lower tide…you might want to aim for the middle somewhere if your good combo spots like the lower tides.
Here are the tides…
04/23/2010 Friday
05:23AM LDT 4.3 H
12:17PM LDT -0.1 L
06:46PM LDT 4.5 H
Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/22/2010
Forecast Overview
Happy Earth Day! Make sure to hug your planet…it is the only one we got! Looks like we are getting a break in the weather as we head into the weekend. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday all look like surf days with light winds and enough swell to keep us having some fun. Monday looks good too…but there may be a little more onshore wind starting to swirl around…forecasts are calling for more storm action around the middle of next week. More S-SW swell lining up out the back.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday – (Finally cleaning up)
Conditions finally improve on Friday…and if the wind lays down fast enough on Thursday evening it could even be sort of fun. In the water we will have a mix of dropping WNW-NW windswell and a new S-SSW swell (190-215). Look for average exposed spots to be in the chest-shoulder high range while the standout NW facing areas, mostly San Diego, will have some shoulder-head high surf. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds for the morning…sort of unstable, so expect some texture here and there, but below 5-6 knots for most areas. WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots will be on tap for the afternoon.
Saturday – (some combo swell)
Saturday is looking like a surf day…it may not be as “consistent” as Friday as the windswell drops off a touch more…but there will be more S-SW swell (180-210) and a new background pulse of NW swell (290-300) both filling in to replace the fading windswell. Most spots will continue to run around waist-chest high on sets. The well exposed S-SW facing spots will see more waist-shoulder high surf while the standout NW/SW combo spots see some head high+ sets. Winds/Weather: Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day.
Sunday – (more combo energy)
More SW swell (190-215) moves in and mixes with the already showing S-SW swell and background NW swell (290-300). The local windswell may come up a touch at the well exposed spots as well. Look for more consistent chest high surf at the average spots while the standout S-SW combo breaks see shoulder-head high surf with some rare plus sets showing on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: A little bit of eddy starts to spin up on Sunday…but not enough to junk up the morning. Expect more light and variable winds for most areas early on and then NW winds around 10-14 knots by the afternoon.
Monday – (more combo love)
Not much change on Monday…the mix of S-SW swells (180-220) and smaller WNW-NW energy (285-300) will continue to hold…but may lose a little bit of consistency. Expect more chest-high surf at the average spots while the standout breaks see more head high, and slightly bigger sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The slight eddy circulation continues on Monday but winds still look pretty manageable. Look for light winds…with some southerly texture in a few areas…but most clean. Look for NW winds 10-15 knots on tap for the afternoon.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Over the next few days we will see a mix of dropping local windswell and some longer-period NW energy from storms that have skirted the edge of our swell window. The biggest size is actually peaking right now…but it will continue to fade slowly through Friday and continue to drop as we move through the weekend.
Further out there is another high-latitude low-pressure forming North of Hawaii…this is forecast to push closer to the coast over the next few days…setting up some new WNW-NW swell (285-300) for around the 28th.
The sucky part is that this storm is forecast to ride the swell right into California…so we could be looking at a pretty similar situation to the weather we just had…namely, an increase in WNW-NW swell but strong onshore winds blowing right over top of it as it arrives.
If this is the case it will probably be jacking up a bunch of our S-SW swell out in the water around the same time. Cross your fingers that this model is just being a Debbie Downer and that the “weather” portion of this storm stays out of our region.
South Pacific
Plenty of energy on the way from the South Pacific…there has been a pretty consistent stream of storms moving through both our S and SW swell windows and thanks to that activity we can expect a series of overlapping pulses that will keep the S facing breaks alive with chest-shoulder high+ surf through the weekend.
The start of a bigger SSW-SW pulse (190-220) begins arriving Sunday and Monday (April 25-26th) but the meat of the swell arrives on Wednesday-Friday (April 28-30th). This one looks good for consistent chest-shoulder high surf at the average spots and overhead sets at the standout SW breaks as it peaks.
Further out it looks like there is going to be another pretty intense low moving in the SPAC swell window in about 5-6 days. Check out the charts…
This storm is showing a lot of good qualities. It is positioned in a non-shadowed area of the SPAC, it has some strong South-to-North movement, it gets a bunch of extra-tropical energy bridging through the mid-latitudes as it really pulls together, and it is 1000+ miles closer than the last bigger storm…all of which are good things. Too bad we have to wait almost a full week for it to form. If this storm does live up to forecasts it would likely send an overhead S-SSW swell (180-210) that would hit around May 5-6th.
the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, April 26nd, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
Happy Earth Day! Make sure to hug your planet…it is the only one we got! Looks like we are getting a break in the weather as we head into the weekend. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday all look like surf days with light winds and enough swell to keep us having some fun. Monday looks good too…but there may be a little more onshore wind starting to swirl around…forecasts are calling for more storm action around the middle of next week. More S-SW swell lining up out the back.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday – (Finally cleaning up)
Conditions finally improve on Friday…and if the wind lays down fast enough on Thursday evening it could even be sort of fun. In the water we will have a mix of dropping WNW-NW windswell and a new S-SSW swell (190-215). Look for average exposed spots to be in the chest-shoulder high range while the standout NW facing areas, mostly San Diego, will have some shoulder-head high surf. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds for the morning…sort of unstable, so expect some texture here and there, but below 5-6 knots for most areas. WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots will be on tap for the afternoon.
Saturday – (some combo swell)
Saturday is looking like a surf day…it may not be as “consistent” as Friday as the windswell drops off a touch more…but there will be more S-SW swell (180-210) and a new background pulse of NW swell (290-300) both filling in to replace the fading windswell. Most spots will continue to run around waist-chest high on sets. The well exposed S-SW facing spots will see more waist-shoulder high surf while the standout NW/SW combo spots see some head high+ sets. Winds/Weather: Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day.
Sunday – (more combo energy)
More SW swell (190-215) moves in and mixes with the already showing S-SW swell and background NW swell (290-300). The local windswell may come up a touch at the well exposed spots as well. Look for more consistent chest high surf at the average spots while the standout S-SW combo breaks see shoulder-head high surf with some rare plus sets showing on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: A little bit of eddy starts to spin up on Sunday…but not enough to junk up the morning. Expect more light and variable winds for most areas early on and then NW winds around 10-14 knots by the afternoon.
Monday – (more combo love)
Not much change on Monday…the mix of S-SW swells (180-220) and smaller WNW-NW energy (285-300) will continue to hold…but may lose a little bit of consistency. Expect more chest-high surf at the average spots while the standout breaks see more head high, and slightly bigger sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The slight eddy circulation continues on Monday but winds still look pretty manageable. Look for light winds…with some southerly texture in a few areas…but most clean. Look for NW winds 10-15 knots on tap for the afternoon.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Over the next few days we will see a mix of dropping local windswell and some longer-period NW energy from storms that have skirted the edge of our swell window. The biggest size is actually peaking right now…but it will continue to fade slowly through Friday and continue to drop as we move through the weekend.
Further out there is another high-latitude low-pressure forming North of Hawaii…this is forecast to push closer to the coast over the next few days…setting up some new WNW-NW swell (285-300) for around the 28th.
The sucky part is that this storm is forecast to ride the swell right into California…so we could be looking at a pretty similar situation to the weather we just had…namely, an increase in WNW-NW swell but strong onshore winds blowing right over top of it as it arrives.
If this is the case it will probably be jacking up a bunch of our S-SW swell out in the water around the same time. Cross your fingers that this model is just being a Debbie Downer and that the “weather” portion of this storm stays out of our region.
South Pacific
Plenty of energy on the way from the South Pacific…there has been a pretty consistent stream of storms moving through both our S and SW swell windows and thanks to that activity we can expect a series of overlapping pulses that will keep the S facing breaks alive with chest-shoulder high+ surf through the weekend.
The start of a bigger SSW-SW pulse (190-220) begins arriving Sunday and Monday (April 25-26th) but the meat of the swell arrives on Wednesday-Friday (April 28-30th). This one looks good for consistent chest-shoulder high surf at the average spots and overhead sets at the standout SW breaks as it peaks.
Further out it looks like there is going to be another pretty intense low moving in the SPAC swell window in about 5-6 days. Check out the charts…
This storm is showing a lot of good qualities. It is positioned in a non-shadowed area of the SPAC, it has some strong South-to-North movement, it gets a bunch of extra-tropical energy bridging through the mid-latitudes as it really pulls together, and it is 1000+ miles closer than the last bigger storm…all of which are good things. Too bad we have to wait almost a full week for it to form. If this storm does live up to forecasts it would likely send an overhead S-SSW swell (180-210) that would hit around May 5-6th.
the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, April 26nd, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 3/16/2010
Forecast Overview
Two new swells, a WNW-NW swell (285-300) and some new S-SW’er (180-210), will fill in on Wednesday, peak overnight and on into Thursday. These waves will stay playful into Friday and then trail off through the weekend. The nice conditions will continue for most of the week…cooling off a bit on Thurs/Fri but then possibly turning back to almost Santa-Ana style flow over the weekend and into early next week.
Short Range (next 3 days)
Wednesday
New WNW-NW swell (285-300 but with more energy in the 290-300 range) will peak while some new background S-SW swell (180-210) begins to slowly fill in (eventually peaking on Thursday). Most WNW-NW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range while the standout NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will have some shoulder-head high surf with overhead sets mixing in at times. Winds/Weather: Weather looks good again…more warm sunny weather with light offshore winds for the morning and just variable onshore flow around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.
Thursday
The WNW-NW swell (285-300) will hold/slowly-fade while the S-SW swell (180-210) peaks. Looks like surf will be pretty similar in the waist-shoulder high range for most WNW exposed spots, and slightly smaller (waist-chest high) at the purely S facing breaks. The best NW spots and the excellent combo breaks can expect some chest-head high surf with some very inconsistent head high+ sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The weather will cool slightly by Thursday but winds still look good in the morning…mostly light and variable to light offshore for most areas. Look for WNW-NW winds around 10-14 knots to build in through the afternoon.
Friday
The WNW-NW swell will continue to back off but won’t be fading out too fast. The S-SW swell (180-200) will continue to hold as well…so it looks like another fairly fun surf day at the well exposed breaks. Average spots will be in the waist-chest high range while the standout breaks see some chest-shoulder high sets. Look for the biggest waves at the good combo spots that do a good job with both S and WNW swells. Winds/Weather: Conditions will be clean again on Friday (seriously what is this fall?) look for light/variable to light offshore winds for the morning and N-NW winds around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.
Long-Range
North Pacific
The NPAC is starting to quiet down…there are still a few storms roaming around but nothing that looks particularly interesting, or even all that well positioned to send more surf to Socal. Over the next few days we will have a new WNW-NW swell (285-300 but with most of the energy up around 290-300) setting up waist-shoulder high+ surf for most WNW-NW facing breaks…with some overhead sets hitting the standout NW areas (Ventura, South Bay, and South SD). Look for this swell to peak Wednesday/Thursday and then slowly back off as we head into Friday and the weekend.
Further out the storm track sort of sputters out after this last system…just a few poorly organized areas of low-pressure that will be setting up some minimal fetch inside of our swell window. Basically we cane expect a few weak, waist-chest high and smaller, WNW-NW swells that overlap through the weekend and into the early part of next week. Waaaaaaaay at the end of the charts the GFS weather model is calling for a more organized system to brew up over by Hawaii in about 6-7 days…but I sort of think that it is smoking crack…still we should keep an eye on it for the next couple of days to see if the model starts to adjust its forecast.
South Pacific
The SPAC continues to look more and more active over the last few forecasts…there still isn’t anything spectacular yet…but I am seeing a lot of really good indicators that something may shake loose soon. We have a new round of S-SSW swell (180-210) that began moving in late on Tuesday and will peak more Wednesday-Friday (March 17-19). This one won’t be huge but I do expect some waist-chest high+ sets at the average spots and some shoulder high+ sets at the standout S facing breaks.
Further out there is a pretty strong looking storm that just tore up a bunch of ocean just to the east of New Zealand…it had some good movement, tracking sort of NNE, and it set up some 45-50 knots of wind in the right part of the storm…unfortunately the system wasn’t quite in our swell window and the parts that were set up right in the middle of the South Pacific Island Shadow.
I do expect some waves from this one…we will see a SW swell (210-220) that arrives with some really long-period energy around Monday (Mar 22) and then the peak of the swell Tuesday/Wednesday (Mar 23-24). This one looks good for inconsistent waist-chest high+ surf for most exposed areas and then some chest-shoulder high+ sets at the standout SW facing spots, mostly in Orange County and San Diego. (If you guys are into traveling…this swell is going to hit Hawaii’s south shores pretty good…looks like a solid S swell will 5-8’+ faces filling in fast on the 20th and holding into the 21st before fading out.)
After that storm high-pressure sort of flattens out the storm track…so I am not seeing anything super significant in the long-range portion of the charts. One thing to watch is the two cyclones north of New Zealand…I bet we are going to see some nice extra-tropical activity from those when they finally start to push further south over the next several days, which hopefully will mean some new, bigger S-SW swells heading our way for the end of March.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Friday, March 19th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
Two new swells, a WNW-NW swell (285-300) and some new S-SW’er (180-210), will fill in on Wednesday, peak overnight and on into Thursday. These waves will stay playful into Friday and then trail off through the weekend. The nice conditions will continue for most of the week…cooling off a bit on Thurs/Fri but then possibly turning back to almost Santa-Ana style flow over the weekend and into early next week.
Short Range (next 3 days)
Wednesday
New WNW-NW swell (285-300 but with more energy in the 290-300 range) will peak while some new background S-SW swell (180-210) begins to slowly fill in (eventually peaking on Thursday). Most WNW-NW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range while the standout NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will have some shoulder-head high surf with overhead sets mixing in at times. Winds/Weather: Weather looks good again…more warm sunny weather with light offshore winds for the morning and just variable onshore flow around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.
Thursday
The WNW-NW swell (285-300) will hold/slowly-fade while the S-SW swell (180-210) peaks. Looks like surf will be pretty similar in the waist-shoulder high range for most WNW exposed spots, and slightly smaller (waist-chest high) at the purely S facing breaks. The best NW spots and the excellent combo breaks can expect some chest-head high surf with some very inconsistent head high+ sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The weather will cool slightly by Thursday but winds still look good in the morning…mostly light and variable to light offshore for most areas. Look for WNW-NW winds around 10-14 knots to build in through the afternoon.
Friday
The WNW-NW swell will continue to back off but won’t be fading out too fast. The S-SW swell (180-200) will continue to hold as well…so it looks like another fairly fun surf day at the well exposed breaks. Average spots will be in the waist-chest high range while the standout breaks see some chest-shoulder high sets. Look for the biggest waves at the good combo spots that do a good job with both S and WNW swells. Winds/Weather: Conditions will be clean again on Friday (seriously what is this fall?) look for light/variable to light offshore winds for the morning and N-NW winds around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.
Long-Range
North Pacific
The NPAC is starting to quiet down…there are still a few storms roaming around but nothing that looks particularly interesting, or even all that well positioned to send more surf to Socal. Over the next few days we will have a new WNW-NW swell (285-300 but with most of the energy up around 290-300) setting up waist-shoulder high+ surf for most WNW-NW facing breaks…with some overhead sets hitting the standout NW areas (Ventura, South Bay, and South SD). Look for this swell to peak Wednesday/Thursday and then slowly back off as we head into Friday and the weekend.
Further out the storm track sort of sputters out after this last system…just a few poorly organized areas of low-pressure that will be setting up some minimal fetch inside of our swell window. Basically we cane expect a few weak, waist-chest high and smaller, WNW-NW swells that overlap through the weekend and into the early part of next week. Waaaaaaaay at the end of the charts the GFS weather model is calling for a more organized system to brew up over by Hawaii in about 6-7 days…but I sort of think that it is smoking crack…still we should keep an eye on it for the next couple of days to see if the model starts to adjust its forecast.
South Pacific
The SPAC continues to look more and more active over the last few forecasts…there still isn’t anything spectacular yet…but I am seeing a lot of really good indicators that something may shake loose soon. We have a new round of S-SSW swell (180-210) that began moving in late on Tuesday and will peak more Wednesday-Friday (March 17-19). This one won’t be huge but I do expect some waist-chest high+ sets at the average spots and some shoulder high+ sets at the standout S facing breaks.
Further out there is a pretty strong looking storm that just tore up a bunch of ocean just to the east of New Zealand…it had some good movement, tracking sort of NNE, and it set up some 45-50 knots of wind in the right part of the storm…unfortunately the system wasn’t quite in our swell window and the parts that were set up right in the middle of the South Pacific Island Shadow.
I do expect some waves from this one…we will see a SW swell (210-220) that arrives with some really long-period energy around Monday (Mar 22) and then the peak of the swell Tuesday/Wednesday (Mar 23-24). This one looks good for inconsistent waist-chest high+ surf for most exposed areas and then some chest-shoulder high+ sets at the standout SW facing spots, mostly in Orange County and San Diego. (If you guys are into traveling…this swell is going to hit Hawaii’s south shores pretty good…looks like a solid S swell will 5-8’+ faces filling in fast on the 20th and holding into the 21st before fading out.)
After that storm high-pressure sort of flattens out the storm track…so I am not seeing anything super significant in the long-range portion of the charts. One thing to watch is the two cyclones north of New Zealand…I bet we are going to see some nice extra-tropical activity from those when they finally start to push further south over the next several days, which hopefully will mean some new, bigger S-SW swells heading our way for the end of March.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Friday, March 19th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
Friday, February 12, 2010
Waves for the Weekend – Go surfing
Saturday and Sunday will both be surf days thanks to a mix of new W-NW/SW swells and clean conditions.
So I am looking at the buoys this (Friday) afternoon and both of our swells are starting to show...but they are a little bit behind timewise from what some of the weather/wave modeling suggested they should be, which is yet another reason not having any outer buoys (like the 46006 and the 46059-California that are offline) sucks the big kahuna. If the buoys were up we would have a full day's worth actual measured data to look at instead of glitchy swell models.
Here is a shot of the “nowcast” from CDIP this afternoon…this one was build using the data from about 1pm.
Compare that to the “forecast” for the same period…you can see a little disconnect.
Anyway...enough of my bitching about the craptacular buoys...the swell is on the way and a bunch of the indicator spots are showing some new, but still fairly small, surf this afternoon. On to the weekend.
On Saturday the new W-NW swell (275-300) and the new SW swell (200-215) will start to peak. The W-NW energy will be showing stronger at spots up around Ventura in the morning but all areas will see an increase as we move throughout the day. At the same time the SW swell will be showing strongest through parts of OC and San Diego in the morning but will filter into some of the spots further north as the swell fills in more through the afternoon.
Wave heights in the morning will be in the shoulder-head high+ range for most of the average WNW facing spots…while standouts see overhead+ sets becoming more and more consistent. By the afternoon most of the WNW facing spots will be shoulder-overhead with sets going a couple of feet overhead. The standout breaks will be running head high to a couple of feet overhead pretty consistently with some sets going several feet overhead at times. The S facing spots only exposed to the SW’er will be smaller…with knee-chest high surf pretty average and some shoulder high+ sets at the standouts. Combo spots, with excellent exposure to both swells will be larger.
Weather/Conditions will be good on Saturday. Look for light offshore winds for most areas through the morning and some more moderate offshore flow near passes and canyons. Look for light afternoon winds…mostly below 10-12 knots but with some areas of onshore texture.
Sunday the W-NW swell and the SW will both continue to peak…holding strong throughout the day.
Look for more shoulder-overhead surf at the standout WNW facing breaks and the better combo spots. The top WNW-NW breaks and the best combo areas will see consistent surf in the head high to a couple of feet overhead range with some bigger sets going several feet overhead. South San Diego standouts look like they will see the most size thanks to a lot of direct exposure to this swell mix…look for surf in the area to stay pretty consistently overhead to well overhead…with some inconsistent sets going bigger at times.
Winds and weather look good again on Sunday. Light offshore winds for most areas through the morning and some more moderate offshore flow near passes and canyons. Look for light afternoon winds…mostly below 10-knots.
So like I said before…it looks like a good surf weekend. Keep in mind that not every spots is going to be firing…and if you are looking for bigger surf that you might need to hunt around a little more…but there will be enough energy, and enough swell combo, that most exposed spots will be fun. I would watch the high tide in the mornings as well…that may cause a few problems, but fortunately the winds are light enough that we should be able to let the tide drain out a bit before things get too choppy.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/13/2010 Saturday
02:22AM LST 1.4 L
08:18AM LST 5.4 H
03:14PM LST -0.5 L
09:22PM LST 4.1 H
02/14/2010 Sunday
02:53AM LST 1.2 L
08:47AM LST 5.2 H
03:36PM LST -0.3 L
09:43PM LST 4.2 H
So I am looking at the buoys this (Friday) afternoon and both of our swells are starting to show...but they are a little bit behind timewise from what some of the weather/wave modeling suggested they should be, which is yet another reason not having any outer buoys (like the 46006 and the 46059-California that are offline) sucks the big kahuna. If the buoys were up we would have a full day's worth actual measured data to look at instead of glitchy swell models.
Here is a shot of the “nowcast” from CDIP this afternoon…this one was build using the data from about 1pm.
Compare that to the “forecast” for the same period…you can see a little disconnect.
Anyway...enough of my bitching about the craptacular buoys...the swell is on the way and a bunch of the indicator spots are showing some new, but still fairly small, surf this afternoon. On to the weekend.
On Saturday the new W-NW swell (275-300) and the new SW swell (200-215) will start to peak. The W-NW energy will be showing stronger at spots up around Ventura in the morning but all areas will see an increase as we move throughout the day. At the same time the SW swell will be showing strongest through parts of OC and San Diego in the morning but will filter into some of the spots further north as the swell fills in more through the afternoon.
Wave heights in the morning will be in the shoulder-head high+ range for most of the average WNW facing spots…while standouts see overhead+ sets becoming more and more consistent. By the afternoon most of the WNW facing spots will be shoulder-overhead with sets going a couple of feet overhead. The standout breaks will be running head high to a couple of feet overhead pretty consistently with some sets going several feet overhead at times. The S facing spots only exposed to the SW’er will be smaller…with knee-chest high surf pretty average and some shoulder high+ sets at the standouts. Combo spots, with excellent exposure to both swells will be larger.
Weather/Conditions will be good on Saturday. Look for light offshore winds for most areas through the morning and some more moderate offshore flow near passes and canyons. Look for light afternoon winds…mostly below 10-12 knots but with some areas of onshore texture.
Sunday the W-NW swell and the SW will both continue to peak…holding strong throughout the day.
Look for more shoulder-overhead surf at the standout WNW facing breaks and the better combo spots. The top WNW-NW breaks and the best combo areas will see consistent surf in the head high to a couple of feet overhead range with some bigger sets going several feet overhead. South San Diego standouts look like they will see the most size thanks to a lot of direct exposure to this swell mix…look for surf in the area to stay pretty consistently overhead to well overhead…with some inconsistent sets going bigger at times.
Winds and weather look good again on Sunday. Light offshore winds for most areas through the morning and some more moderate offshore flow near passes and canyons. Look for light afternoon winds…mostly below 10-knots.
So like I said before…it looks like a good surf weekend. Keep in mind that not every spots is going to be firing…and if you are looking for bigger surf that you might need to hunt around a little more…but there will be enough energy, and enough swell combo, that most exposed spots will be fun. I would watch the high tide in the mornings as well…that may cause a few problems, but fortunately the winds are light enough that we should be able to let the tide drain out a bit before things get too choppy.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/13/2010 Saturday
02:22AM LST 1.4 L
08:18AM LST 5.4 H
03:14PM LST -0.5 L
09:22PM LST 4.1 H
02/14/2010 Sunday
02:53AM LST 1.2 L
08:47AM LST 5.2 H
03:36PM LST -0.3 L
09:43PM LST 4.2 H
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Waves for the weekend – Playful and a touch cleaner
Hey gang....I am going to be away from the computer for a few days (non surf related) so this forecast is going out a bit early. The forecast will be back to its regularly scheduled randomness on Monday. Here are the nuts and bolts for the next few days.
Saturday
Saturday is looking like a surf day...nothing stellar...but cleaner than what we had at the end of the week.
We are going to see a mix of holding SW swell (200-220), steady WNW windswell, and peaking SE swell (160-175+180) from Tropical Storm Dolores.
Average spots will be waist-chest high with some plus sets at the better combo spots and SE facing breaks. Top spots, particularly the good combo breaks, and the best SE facing spots, will be around chest-shoulder high...maybe even a couple of bigger waves on the lower tides. Looks like the biggest surf will be in the summer San Diego areas, Orange County summer standouts, and the better spots in North LA. (sort of what you should expect from SE-SW swells).
Winds will be cleaner in the morning...more light and variable conditions early but with a few pockets of bump here and there at the more exposed beaches. WNW winds around 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon.
Saturday Tides
01:33AM LDT -0.2 L
08:08AM LDT 3.2 H
12:02PM LDT 2.5 L
06:32PM LDT 6.1 H
Sunday and Monday
The mix of SW and WNW swell backs down slowly while the tropical SE swell drops out pretty fast.
Wave heights will continue in the waist-chest high range for many of the average spots...less consistent than Saturday. Top spots still see some chest-shoulder high sets but again the bigger sets will be less consistent. Expect smaller and less consistent surf on Monday.
Winds look clean in the morning on both days...light and variable with a hint of onshore flow through the early morning. WNW winds build in through midday and peak around 10-15 knots by the afternoon.
Here are the tides for Sunday/Monday
Sunday Tides
02:19AM LDT -0.8 L
08:50AM LDT 3.5 H
01:08PM LDT 2.3 L
07:26PM LDT 6.5 H
Monday Tides
03:03AM LDT -1.2 L
09:28AM LDT 3.7 H
02:05PM LDT 2.1 L
08:16PM LDT 6.9 H
Have a great weekend everyone!
Saturday
Saturday is looking like a surf day...nothing stellar...but cleaner than what we had at the end of the week.
We are going to see a mix of holding SW swell (200-220), steady WNW windswell, and peaking SE swell (160-175+180) from Tropical Storm Dolores.
Average spots will be waist-chest high with some plus sets at the better combo spots and SE facing breaks. Top spots, particularly the good combo breaks, and the best SE facing spots, will be around chest-shoulder high...maybe even a couple of bigger waves on the lower tides. Looks like the biggest surf will be in the summer San Diego areas, Orange County summer standouts, and the better spots in North LA. (sort of what you should expect from SE-SW swells).
Winds will be cleaner in the morning...more light and variable conditions early but with a few pockets of bump here and there at the more exposed beaches. WNW winds around 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon.
Saturday Tides
01:33AM LDT -0.2 L
08:08AM LDT 3.2 H
12:02PM LDT 2.5 L
06:32PM LDT 6.1 H
Sunday and Monday
The mix of SW and WNW swell backs down slowly while the tropical SE swell drops out pretty fast.
Wave heights will continue in the waist-chest high range for many of the average spots...less consistent than Saturday. Top spots still see some chest-shoulder high sets but again the bigger sets will be less consistent. Expect smaller and less consistent surf on Monday.
Winds look clean in the morning on both days...light and variable with a hint of onshore flow through the early morning. WNW winds build in through midday and peak around 10-15 knots by the afternoon.
Here are the tides for Sunday/Monday
Sunday Tides
02:19AM LDT -0.8 L
08:50AM LDT 3.5 H
01:08PM LDT 2.3 L
07:26PM LDT 6.5 H
Monday Tides
03:03AM LDT -1.2 L
09:28AM LDT 3.7 H
02:05PM LDT 2.1 L
08:16PM LDT 6.9 H
Have a great weekend everyone!
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