Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/29/2010

Forecast Overview

The nasty winds will finally start to back off tonight and it looks like they are going to stay light as we move into the weekend. Shape and conditions will improve as we head into the weekend, which is nice because it is just in time for more SW swell to move in from the Southern Hemi.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (breaking the wind)
Conditions start to improve on Friday…not totally clean up…but definitely better than what we had on Thursday. In the water we will have a mix of holding WNW-NW windswell and some peaking SSW-SW swell (190-220). Most spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range, while the better NW and SW facing breaks see some less consistent bigger sets. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly in San Diego, will see stacked up, lumpy overhead+ windswell. The best SW facing breaks will be head high+ on the inconsistent sets. I don’t expect the greatest shape since there is so much short-period energy sloshing around, but if you have a spot that can groom out some of that energy, or it just generally breaks better on windswells, then those areas will probably be the best call. Winds/Weather: Look for light winds in the morning…there may be a little onshore texture here and there…but overall winds will be below 5 knots. Look for onshore WNW-NW winds to build in later in the day…eventually pushing up into the 10-15 knot range.



Saturday – (Fading windswell but a touch more Southern Hemi)
The surf continues to improve on Saturday as the local winds even out a bit more and the even though the windswell backs off, it grooms out some of the junk and manages to hold onto some of the more “surfable” parts of the swell. The SSW-SW swell (190-220) continues to hold…and even gets a little bit more reinforcing energy that will help to keep the summer spots in fun-size surf. Average breaks can expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout NW facing spots will be shoulder-head high with some plus sets showing on the morning tide push. The best SW facing spots, particularly the combo breaks, will have more consistent shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in on the good tide push. Winds/Weather: Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day. There may be some pockets of fog early…but it should burn off by midday.



Sunday – (more combo energy)
The SSW-SW swell continues to hold on Sunday while the local windswell drops off. Look for the average spots to slip down into the waist-chest range with a few plus sets sneaking through at the good combo spots. The best SW facing breaks, and the excellent combo spots (mostly in South OC and parts of San Diego), will be more in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent head high+ sets on the tide push. Winds/Weather: A little eddy starts to spin up on Sunday…nothing super strong…but possibly centered around Catalina which would push light S-SSE winds into San Diego and Southern OC. Spots further north look cleaner…mostly E-ENE through the morning. All breaks see the springy WNW-NW winds push in through the afternoon with the well exposed breaks topping around near 12-15 knots.



Monday – (more combo love)
The windswell continues to back off on Monday…but another pulse of SSW-SW swell moves in and mixes with the Southern Hemi blend (180-210) that will still be hanging around from the weekend. Expect the WNW-NW facing spots to lose more size…holding in the waist high range with a few rare bigger sets. The SW facing breaks will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with a few of the standout SW facing breaks, mostly in South OC, seeing some inconsistent head high+ sets. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds through the morning with some pockets of texture around the wind-prone areas. The afternoon winds pick up out of the NW around 10-15 knots.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Not much showing in the NPAC in the latest forecast run…we will see the strong wind gradient (you know…the one that is trashing the surf here on Thursday) start to shift around and weaken as high-pressure starts to develop over the region.



This increasing high-pressure is actually stretching across to Hawaii, with another fairly strong ridge developing over the western half of the North Pacific. Check it out…



This my friends, is a pretty typical spring/early summer pressure pattern for the North Pacific…and once those two ridges of pressure get entrenched it is pretty difficult to push them out of the way. You guys might hear me refer to this sort of set-up as a “double-barrel” high-pressure…and yes it is a bad thing for helping make surf.

At this point, with these highs moving into place I am not expecting any sort of significant storm to form in our swell window over the next week or so. There may be an increase in local windswell if the eastern high moves a little further off the coast…but for the most part the NPAC is looking pretty boring.

South Pacific
Plenty of energy on the way from the South Pacific…there has been a pretty consistent stream of storms moving through both our S and SW swell windows and thanks to that activity we can expect a series of overlapping pulses that will keep the S facing breaks alive with chest-shoulder high+ surf through the weekend.



SSW-SW (190-220) has been arriving over the last couple of days but it has mostly been swallowed up by this stupid onshore wind. Fortunately this swell has some legs and the main portion of the energy is going to arrive in a couple of overlapping pulses that peak on Friday, hold into early Saturday, and then slowly back down Sunday/Monday. Like I said in the short-range portion of the forecast… this one looks good for consistent chest-shoulder high surf at the average spots and a few overhead sets at the standout SW breaks as it peaks.

That nice looking storm that I was watching waaaaay out in the charts in my last long-range forecast actually managed to pull together over the last few days (and I didn’t even have to bribe it with tootsie pops like I do with my 5-year old). Check it out on the Jason-1 satellite…(a big thanks to Mark Sponsler, who lets me poach his www.Stormsurf.com charts…make sure to visit his site when you get a chance).



Like I mentioned before this storm is showing a lot of good qualities. It is positioned in a non-shadowed area of the SPAC, it has some strong South-to-North movement, it gets a bunch of extra-tropical energy bridging through the mid-latitudes as it really pulls together, and it is 1000+ miles closer than the last bigger storm…all of which are good things. The winds aren’t super strong…WINDsat had some 35-45 knots in core…but it looks like the proximity and duration of the storm (as well as the movement) will help overcome its lack of intensity.

At this point I am looking for new S-SSW swell (180-200) to move in late on May 4th…but then peak on May 5-6th…likely holding some smaller but still surfable energy into the following weekend. Most S facing spots will see consistent chest-shoulder high surf from this one…but the standout S facing spots, pretty much just in Orange County, will have some sets going a couple of feet overhead as it peaks…the focal breaks (spots that really pull in this sort of swell) will probably have some bigger sizes at times.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, May 3rd, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/22/2010

Forecast Overview

Happy Earth Day! Make sure to hug your planet…it is the only one we got! Looks like we are getting a break in the weather as we head into the weekend. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday all look like surf days with light winds and enough swell to keep us having some fun. Monday looks good too…but there may be a little more onshore wind starting to swirl around…forecasts are calling for more storm action around the middle of next week. More S-SW swell lining up out the back.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (Finally cleaning up)
Conditions finally improve on Friday…and if the wind lays down fast enough on Thursday evening it could even be sort of fun. In the water we will have a mix of dropping WNW-NW windswell and a new S-SSW swell (190-215). Look for average exposed spots to be in the chest-shoulder high range while the standout NW facing areas, mostly San Diego, will have some shoulder-head high surf. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds for the morning…sort of unstable, so expect some texture here and there, but below 5-6 knots for most areas. WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots will be on tap for the afternoon.



Saturday – (some combo swell)
Saturday is looking like a surf day…it may not be as “consistent” as Friday as the windswell drops off a touch more…but there will be more S-SW swell (180-210) and a new background pulse of NW swell (290-300) both filling in to replace the fading windswell. Most spots will continue to run around waist-chest high on sets. The well exposed S-SW facing spots will see more waist-shoulder high surf while the standout NW/SW combo spots see some head high+ sets. Winds/Weather: Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day.



Sunday – (more combo energy)
More SW swell (190-215) moves in and mixes with the already showing S-SW swell and background NW swell (290-300). The local windswell may come up a touch at the well exposed spots as well. Look for more consistent chest high surf at the average spots while the standout S-SW combo breaks see shoulder-head high surf with some rare plus sets showing on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: A little bit of eddy starts to spin up on Sunday…but not enough to junk up the morning. Expect more light and variable winds for most areas early on and then NW winds around 10-14 knots by the afternoon.



Monday – (more combo love)
Not much change on Monday…the mix of S-SW swells (180-220) and smaller WNW-NW energy (285-300) will continue to hold…but may lose a little bit of consistency. Expect more chest-high surf at the average spots while the standout breaks see more head high, and slightly bigger sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The slight eddy circulation continues on Monday but winds still look pretty manageable. Look for light winds…with some southerly texture in a few areas…but most clean. Look for NW winds 10-15 knots on tap for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Over the next few days we will see a mix of dropping local windswell and some longer-period NW energy from storms that have skirted the edge of our swell window. The biggest size is actually peaking right now…but it will continue to fade slowly through Friday and continue to drop as we move through the weekend.

Further out there is another high-latitude low-pressure forming North of Hawaii…this is forecast to push closer to the coast over the next few days…setting up some new WNW-NW swell (285-300) for around the 28th.



The sucky part is that this storm is forecast to ride the swell right into California…so we could be looking at a pretty similar situation to the weather we just had…namely, an increase in WNW-NW swell but strong onshore winds blowing right over top of it as it arrives.



If this is the case it will probably be jacking up a bunch of our S-SW swell out in the water around the same time. Cross your fingers that this model is just being a Debbie Downer and that the “weather” portion of this storm stays out of our region.

South Pacific
Plenty of energy on the way from the South Pacific…there has been a pretty consistent stream of storms moving through both our S and SW swell windows and thanks to that activity we can expect a series of overlapping pulses that will keep the S facing breaks alive with chest-shoulder high+ surf through the weekend.



The start of a bigger SSW-SW pulse (190-220) begins arriving Sunday and Monday (April 25-26th) but the meat of the swell arrives on Wednesday-Friday (April 28-30th). This one looks good for consistent chest-shoulder high surf at the average spots and overhead sets at the standout SW breaks as it peaks.

Further out it looks like there is going to be another pretty intense low moving in the SPAC swell window in about 5-6 days. Check out the charts…



This storm is showing a lot of good qualities. It is positioned in a non-shadowed area of the SPAC, it has some strong South-to-North movement, it gets a bunch of extra-tropical energy bridging through the mid-latitudes as it really pulls together, and it is 1000+ miles closer than the last bigger storm…all of which are good things. Too bad we have to wait almost a full week for it to form. If this storm does live up to forecasts it would likely send an overhead S-SSW swell (180-210) that would hit around May 5-6th.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, April 26nd, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/01/2010

Forecast Overview

No stupid April’s fools tricks in the forecast today…well other than the ones that the local weather is playing on my wind forecasts. Stupid wind, I hate you. Conditions are going to clean up a bit on Friday...or at least stay cleaner a little longer in the morning. The WNW-NW swell will be backing off while a new S swell moves in. Both swells stabilize and hold into Saturday before fading a bit more on Sunday.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Friday – (Cleaning up combo swell)
The WNW-NW swell mix (280-300) will be on the way out on Friday...and since the swell didn’t produce all that much for the lesser exposed spots…I am not expecting it to hang around very long. There will be an ok S swell (170-200) that will start to peak on Friday...again this will be ok, not great, so we are going to have to cross our fingers that these swells can try and combo into something worthwhile. Sizewise I think that the average spots are going to hold around waist-chest high with some chest high+ sets. The standout combo spots will be more in the waist-shoulder high range on average with some bigger head high+ waves mixing in at the beaches with either really good NW exposure or really, really good S swell exposure. Winds/Weather: The winds shift back to normal as high pressure tries to rebuild over Socal. Look for light and variable winds for most spots in the morning, and some N winds around Santa Barbara and Ventura. Afternoon winds push in out of the NW around 10-15 knots.



Saturday – (Surfy in the morning, but breezy by midday)
We will continue to see a mix of WNW-NW energy, mostly windswell (280-300) and S swell (170-200). Average spots will see waist-chest high surf while the standout NW and S facing breaks (as well as the best combo spots) will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger head high sets mixing in on the low tides. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds for the morning with some onshore flow/texture/lump to the more exposed areas. The winds turn onshore pretty fast and will eventually build to 12-18 knots from the WNW-NW by the afternoon.



Sunday – (Stormy? WTFK anymore…)
Another cold front is forecast to move through late Sunday and on into Monday…but the weather model has definitely been overcalling these things…so at this point we are sort of in wait and see mode. Right now it looks like the mix of local WNW-NW windswell, slowly fading S swell, and some background medium period NW swell (290+), will be on tap for Sunday…holding most spots around the waist-chest high range, and pushing the top spots into the shoulder high+ range. Winds/Weather: Looks like variable onshore winds for the morning…mostly light…but with enough speed to put some texture on it. Look for the WNW-NW winds to build into the 15-20 knot range by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
We have a strong storm in the Gulf of Alaska centered just off the Pacific NW Coast this bad-boy is going to be sending us some new WNW-NW swell (280-300+) over the next few days…peaking mostly Wednesday afternoon and overnight into Thursday morning.



The NPAC still isn’t quite shutting down…but it also isn’t doing anything particularly spectacular. At this point it looks like a new storm up around the Aleutians will set up new NW swell (290-300+) that will arrive around April 4-6. It also looks like another storm could develop next to California around the same time…so we could see another mix of local windswell, longer-period NW swell, and funky weather all arriving early next week…just what we need.

Further out is pretty bland…high-pressure is starting to get all springy and is pushing the storm track further north, which is putting the fading storm action out of the Socal swell window. By the end of next week the forecasts have the NE Pacific high hitting a 1040-mb mark, which in weather nerd speak means that it has almost reached the atmospheric equivalent of concrete. About the only good thing about this is that the high is still close enough to the California coast that it will help to set up some nice weather by the middle/end of next week.

South Pacific
The SPAC has been getting more active lately and the storms seem to be a little more frequent than what we even had a few weeks ago. Right now new long-period S-swell (170-200) is starting to filter into the buoys…but it is mostly getting lost in the noisy WNW-NW swell/windswell. This swell will peak on Friday and into Saturday before slowly dropping off. If conditions were going to be cleaner I would say that this swell would be pretty playful at the exposed spots...but at this point it looks like local windswell and winds will tear a lot of the fun out of the swell. Look for some waist-shoulder high surf at the above average S facing breaks…inconsistent at times…but punchy enough when the sets show. The standout S facing spots, mostly through OC and SD, will have chest-shoulder high surf with a few bigger sets mixing in.



Further out There is another storm just pulling together now that is starting to put together some decent numbers…and if the winds come through right we could see a pretty decent SSW-SW swell (190-215) that will arrive with really long-period energy on April 8 but likely peak on April 9-10…and hang around for a few days after that as well. It looks like it will be good for chest-head high surf at the average SW facing spots and overhead sets at the standout breaks. This storm is much better aimed towards Mainland Mex and Central America…and it roughly hits around the same time...just bigger, with warm water, and cold beer…are you still reading this? Why? Shoo? Go book at ticket…and send me photos so that I can live vicariously through you.

Actually I am going on a little vacation myself…I will have my computer but I will probably unplug a bit…so the Next Long-range forecast MIGHT be posted on Monday, April 5th, 2010…and if it isn’t, just wait longer. :)~

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/