Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/01/2010

Forecast Overview

No stupid April’s fools tricks in the forecast today…well other than the ones that the local weather is playing on my wind forecasts. Stupid wind, I hate you. Conditions are going to clean up a bit on Friday...or at least stay cleaner a little longer in the morning. The WNW-NW swell will be backing off while a new S swell moves in. Both swells stabilize and hold into Saturday before fading a bit more on Sunday.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Friday – (Cleaning up combo swell)
The WNW-NW swell mix (280-300) will be on the way out on Friday...and since the swell didn’t produce all that much for the lesser exposed spots…I am not expecting it to hang around very long. There will be an ok S swell (170-200) that will start to peak on Friday...again this will be ok, not great, so we are going to have to cross our fingers that these swells can try and combo into something worthwhile. Sizewise I think that the average spots are going to hold around waist-chest high with some chest high+ sets. The standout combo spots will be more in the waist-shoulder high range on average with some bigger head high+ waves mixing in at the beaches with either really good NW exposure or really, really good S swell exposure. Winds/Weather: The winds shift back to normal as high pressure tries to rebuild over Socal. Look for light and variable winds for most spots in the morning, and some N winds around Santa Barbara and Ventura. Afternoon winds push in out of the NW around 10-15 knots.



Saturday – (Surfy in the morning, but breezy by midday)
We will continue to see a mix of WNW-NW energy, mostly windswell (280-300) and S swell (170-200). Average spots will see waist-chest high surf while the standout NW and S facing breaks (as well as the best combo spots) will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger head high sets mixing in on the low tides. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds for the morning with some onshore flow/texture/lump to the more exposed areas. The winds turn onshore pretty fast and will eventually build to 12-18 knots from the WNW-NW by the afternoon.



Sunday – (Stormy? WTFK anymore…)
Another cold front is forecast to move through late Sunday and on into Monday…but the weather model has definitely been overcalling these things…so at this point we are sort of in wait and see mode. Right now it looks like the mix of local WNW-NW windswell, slowly fading S swell, and some background medium period NW swell (290+), will be on tap for Sunday…holding most spots around the waist-chest high range, and pushing the top spots into the shoulder high+ range. Winds/Weather: Looks like variable onshore winds for the morning…mostly light…but with enough speed to put some texture on it. Look for the WNW-NW winds to build into the 15-20 knot range by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
We have a strong storm in the Gulf of Alaska centered just off the Pacific NW Coast this bad-boy is going to be sending us some new WNW-NW swell (280-300+) over the next few days…peaking mostly Wednesday afternoon and overnight into Thursday morning.



The NPAC still isn’t quite shutting down…but it also isn’t doing anything particularly spectacular. At this point it looks like a new storm up around the Aleutians will set up new NW swell (290-300+) that will arrive around April 4-6. It also looks like another storm could develop next to California around the same time…so we could see another mix of local windswell, longer-period NW swell, and funky weather all arriving early next week…just what we need.

Further out is pretty bland…high-pressure is starting to get all springy and is pushing the storm track further north, which is putting the fading storm action out of the Socal swell window. By the end of next week the forecasts have the NE Pacific high hitting a 1040-mb mark, which in weather nerd speak means that it has almost reached the atmospheric equivalent of concrete. About the only good thing about this is that the high is still close enough to the California coast that it will help to set up some nice weather by the middle/end of next week.

South Pacific
The SPAC has been getting more active lately and the storms seem to be a little more frequent than what we even had a few weeks ago. Right now new long-period S-swell (170-200) is starting to filter into the buoys…but it is mostly getting lost in the noisy WNW-NW swell/windswell. This swell will peak on Friday and into Saturday before slowly dropping off. If conditions were going to be cleaner I would say that this swell would be pretty playful at the exposed spots...but at this point it looks like local windswell and winds will tear a lot of the fun out of the swell. Look for some waist-shoulder high surf at the above average S facing breaks…inconsistent at times…but punchy enough when the sets show. The standout S facing spots, mostly through OC and SD, will have chest-shoulder high surf with a few bigger sets mixing in.



Further out There is another storm just pulling together now that is starting to put together some decent numbers…and if the winds come through right we could see a pretty decent SSW-SW swell (190-215) that will arrive with really long-period energy on April 8 but likely peak on April 9-10…and hang around for a few days after that as well. It looks like it will be good for chest-head high surf at the average SW facing spots and overhead sets at the standout breaks. This storm is much better aimed towards Mainland Mex and Central America…and it roughly hits around the same time...just bigger, with warm water, and cold beer…are you still reading this? Why? Shoo? Go book at ticket…and send me photos so that I can live vicariously through you.

Actually I am going on a little vacation myself…I will have my computer but I will probably unplug a bit…so the Next Long-range forecast MIGHT be posted on Monday, April 5th, 2010…and if it isn’t, just wait longer. :)~

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Surf for Tuesday – A touch of fugliness

Tuesday will be sort of surfable…but onshore winds will keep it from being much fun most of the day.

In the water we will have a mix of NW swell (290-300), some S-SW swell (190-210), and some building W-WNW windswell…which, unfortunately, will likely be set up by our increasing onshore local winds.



Surfwise we can expect the average exposed breaks…both SW and NW spots…will be in the waist high range with some chest high sets. The standout combo spots, mostly in San Diego, OC, and Ventura will be in the chest-shoulder high range on the sets.

Winds aren’t looking great…the various wind models are calling for a light-variable onshore flow through the morning, which is basically the leftovers from the nightly sea-breeze (enhanced by a weak cold front)…so the winds are going to blow onshore most of the night…slow down a bit for the morning, and then come right back up by midmorning. Onshore flow by the afternoon is expected to be in the 14-16 knot range…maybe even stronger.



So for tomorrow…I think that your best bet is to try and stick to spots that have some wind protection…but since the wind is mostly westerly there won’t be many clean areas. Having some kelp, structures, or high-cliffs may help out, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Personally I am going to get up and give it a look but I am not going to drive very far…if you are more than 10 min from the beach I would probably just check the buoys/winds/cams in the morning just on the chance that the winds lay down more this evening.

Here are the tides…

01:24AM LDT 0.5 L
07:49AM LDT 4.2 H
01:21PM LDT 2.2 L
07:02PM LDT 4.9 H

Surf for Tuesday – Fading SW swell and more wind issues

Tuesday won’t be a surf day...but there may be a couple of OK moments through the early morning.

Tuesday we are going to see a mix of fading SW swell (200-220) and holding WNW-NW windswell.



Most spots will be dropping into the knee-waist high range on Tuesday...maybe a few rare waist high+ sets on the lower morning tides. Top SW facing spots, again mostly in the South OC/North SD areas, will have some more consistent chest high sets, with a few inconsistent bigger waves through the early morning tide push. Overall there will be some waiting around between waves...and then the tide starts to kill it as it gets too high by midmorning.

Winds will still be sort of an issue...we aren’t quite in full-blown eddy mode but there is definitely some of the eddy influence pulling our winds into an onshore groove. This will continue on Tuesday...expect a light start to the morning with sort of variable onshore flow in the 5 knot range. Onshore flow builds to 8-10 knots by midmorning and then tops out WNW 12-15 knots by the afternoon.



It won’t be totally awful tomorrow, but it won’t be all that fun either...below average I guess would be a good term. You might be able to up the fun-factor by sticking to the top spots, brining your small wave gear, and finding something to break up the wind...but at the same time I wouldn’t drive very far for tomorrow's surf (Especially since gas is suddenly $3.00+ a gallon again...well ok not suddenly.)

Here are the tides...

03:40AM LDT -0.4 L
09:59AM LDT 3.8 H
02:52PM LDT 2.2 L
08:52PM LDT 5.8 H

Surf for Friday – More SW and more stupid wind

Friday looks a little more surfable than Thursday but there are still going to be a few wind issues.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of overlapping SW swells (190-215) and some steep NW windswell (295-300+). The windswell is going to skip past most spots, but a few of the best exposed breaks will see some of its cross-up energy.

Wave heights at the average spots are going to continue to hold around waist-chest high and will continue to be on the inconsistent side. The standout SW facing spots will more consistently in the chest high range but with some shoulder high waves on the bigger sets.

Wind is where we get bogged down again...this weird little onshore flow that has been rolling through the last few days will continue to plague us on Friday. It won’t be as strong as it has been but there will still be some general texture/funk to the more exposed beaches. Check out the NWS model for tomorrow morning.



It is fairly light along the coast early (this is for 8am) but those winds continue to hang in the outer waters and will push onshore fairly quickly as the inland areas heat up. I am expecting mostly variable onshore texture through the dawn patrol, some building W-SW winds 5-8 knots by midmorning, and then W winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon. Basically if you want to surf cleaner conditions you are going to have to get up early...and since the local airmass is so unstable I might even consider waiting for enough light to do a surf cam check before driving too far.

Your best bet is to find a spot with good protection from the wind but still some exposure to the SW swell. Again I would stick with the small-wave gear and stuff that works well with a little chop (and a bit too much tide)...flat fishy shapes and the longboards will probably be the most fun.

Also water temps are pretty jacked up right now...I am hearing that there isn't much warm water out there (despite it being July). I would plan on bringing your full suit since temps are ranging around 58-60 degrees at a lot of beaches.

Here are the tides...

02:19AM LDT -0.2 L
08:51AM LDT 3.3 H
12:58PM LDT 2.5 L
07:18PM LDT 5.6 H

Waves for the Weekend – Combo swell continues

Saturday and Sunday both look like surf days...on paper...but the potential for the funky chicken eddy winds will continue to kind of hang out there in the background.

The wind this morning that blew through SD and OC was pretty freaking lame...and trust me I was as bummed about it as you were. There were a few spots out there that were protected enough to be fun...but you had to hunt around for them.

On Saturday and Sunday the mix of S-SSW swell (180-200) will continue push through and blend with some fading but still fun WNW windswell. Saturday will be the biggest day as the S swell continues to peak but decent size will hold into Sunday (and really into the early part of next week).

Sizewise look for lots of chest-shoulder high surf at the average exposed spots this weekend. The standout S facing breaks and the best combo spots will have some head high+ sets through Saturday that will get less consistent and more in the shoulder-head high range by Sunday.

Winds are were things get a little funky...these winds we have here on Friday are forecast to back down tonight and turn more S-SE’erly for tomorrow morning. The different forecast models are calling for either light S winds or light/variable to light SE for the morning on both Saturday and Sunday. By midday we can expect building SW-W onshore flow with it topping out around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.

I think it will be surfable at most areas tomorrow...it may be bumpy and shape may be a little lame...but it will be rideable. The S facing spots will have the biggest waves but I think the combo spots that have some protection from the S winds will actually be the best call for tomorrow. I wouldn’t plan on driving very far just because the winds are so unstable...but if you have a spot like that close by I would give it a check. I would keep an eye on the winds as well later Friday night...if they do back down after dark then we have a better shot of getting more widespread cleaner conditions by Saturday. Same goes for Saturday night into Sunday.

Well cross your fingers that the winds don’t try and shaft us too hard (it is springtime)...have a good one.

Saturday
04:24AM LDT -0.8 L
10:39AM LDT 3.5 H
03:27PM LDT 1.8 L
09:35PM LDT 5.7 H

Sunday
05:01AM LDT -0.7 L
11:24AM LDT 3.4 H
03:56PM LDT 2.1 L
10:05PM LDT 5.5 H

Random Surf Report – Stupid wind

If you didn’t get a chance to surf this morning...don’t worry you aren’t missing much.

Our first little shot of S swell is filling in this morning...it is a bit inconsistent and really it isn’t doing so hot as we head to nearly a 6-foot high tide...but it is out there and mixing with some other WNW swell energy.

Unfortunately the winds are getting an early start to it...check out the wind analysis from 7am this morning.



WNW-NW winds for most spots...not super strong but this was at dawn...and it is just expected to get worse this afternoon. There are a couple of semi-clean areas...North LA County is alright if you stick around the Malibu area (not much swell there though)...and Northern San Diego county, which has more swell, mostly light winds, but is starting to see some funky texture picking up.

This isn’t much of an update...but if you were planning on trying to surf today I wouldn’t spend a lot of time checking it.

I’ll be back with the forecast for Friday...and the overview of the upcoming weekend later this afternoon.

Monday’s Surf – Looking ugly

Monday does not look like a surf day.

We are going to see some slowly fading WNW swell, local windswell, and a touch of tiny background SW swell but it looks like winds are going to hack it up pretty good for most spots.

Sizewise look for consistent chest-shoulder high at most of the average exposed spots. Top breaks with exposure to the windswell/WNW swell mix will be closer to head high on the bigger sets. Shape is going to be pretty poor…any spot that escapes the wind won’t really be able to pull in any of the swell…so we are kind of out of luck for tomorrow.

Weather we can expect W-NW winds 10-15 knots with some near 20 knot gusts by the afternoon. It may be a little lighter in the morning but I think it is going to nice and lumpy no matter what the wind is doing right at dawn. Expect it to get progressively worse through the afternoon.

Personally I am not planning on surfing tomorrow…the winds look like they are going to make it complete poo for most of the day. Oh I will probably check a surf cam now and then throughout the day but it will be mostly for entertainment sake. Fortunately winds look like they get better on Tuesday and then even more offshore by Wednesday…hopefully some surf will stick around through the middle of the week.

This is how Monday's wind makes me feel...(sorry I am suddenly back to posting lame internet stuff again.)