Sunday wind update – Not much change in the forecast

Just looking at the wind/weather models this evening…seeing if conditions tomorrow look a little better. Unfortunately things don’t look much better…

Winds are still strengthening in the outer waters and are expected to push further over the coast over the next several hours. Check out the COAMPS analysis charts from this afternoon…there are a couple of lighter pockets in a few areas right now but they are supposed to erode more tonight.



This is the COAMPS forecast chart for Sunday morning at about 4-5am…it doesn’t look very pretty…the winds are a little lighter right along the coast, but still onshore at least in the 5-8 knot range.



This is the forecast for about 8-9am…and you can see that the winds are forecast to get stronger.



It is worth noting that these winds are being set up by this low/cold-front that is forecast to move through our region...so they will be totally dependent on how the front actually behaves. Sometimes, when we get a solid drop in air-temperature, like we are supposed to get tonight, it can help reestablish the high-pressure that usually protects Socal…and possibly delay, or even deflect, a cold front. At this point I am not holding out much hope…but like I said in yesterdays forecast, there is always a chance.

Since we have swell in the water I definitely recommend getting up and checking conditions if you live close by, or check the surf-cams if you live further away, (anytime we have swell it pays to give it a once over)…I just wouldn’t get your expectations all that high or waste a ton of gas hunting around.

Surf for Friday – More SW and more stupid wind

Friday looks a little more surfable than Thursday but there are still going to be a few wind issues.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of overlapping SW swells (190-215) and some steep NW windswell (295-300+). The windswell is going to skip past most spots, but a few of the best exposed breaks will see some of its cross-up energy.

Wave heights at the average spots are going to continue to hold around waist-chest high and will continue to be on the inconsistent side. The standout SW facing spots will more consistently in the chest high range but with some shoulder high waves on the bigger sets.

Wind is where we get bogged down again...this weird little onshore flow that has been rolling through the last few days will continue to plague us on Friday. It won’t be as strong as it has been but there will still be some general texture/funk to the more exposed beaches. Check out the NWS model for tomorrow morning.



It is fairly light along the coast early (this is for 8am) but those winds continue to hang in the outer waters and will push onshore fairly quickly as the inland areas heat up. I am expecting mostly variable onshore texture through the dawn patrol, some building W-SW winds 5-8 knots by midmorning, and then W winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon. Basically if you want to surf cleaner conditions you are going to have to get up early...and since the local airmass is so unstable I might even consider waiting for enough light to do a surf cam check before driving too far.

Your best bet is to find a spot with good protection from the wind but still some exposure to the SW swell. Again I would stick with the small-wave gear and stuff that works well with a little chop (and a bit too much tide)...flat fishy shapes and the longboards will probably be the most fun.

Also water temps are pretty jacked up right now...I am hearing that there isn't much warm water out there (despite it being July). I would plan on bringing your full suit since temps are ranging around 58-60 degrees at a lot of beaches.

Here are the tides...

02:19AM LDT -0.2 L
08:51AM LDT 3.3 H
12:58PM LDT 2.5 L
07:18PM LDT 5.6 H

Monday’s Surf – Still a bit funky…but cleaner than the weekend

Man this weekend was pretty much a bust…at least for my local spots. The wind came on a bit stronger than the forecasts were anticipating and the eddy that could have held off the worst of the bump never really developed. So instead of slightly bumpy conditions it was really bumpy and nasty most of the time. There were a few surfable spots out there but not as many as there could have been.

Anyway enough of my bitching...on to Monday.

Monday should have cleaner conditions, lighter winds, and smaller swell.

It still won’t be super glassy but the onshore wind is supposed to slow down tomorrow morning and come in below 10-knots…maybe even lighter. It should be rideable for most spots but expect some crumble/bump to continue.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of SW swells (one fading and another arriving) and some WNW windswell (big surprise there). Most spots will hold in the waist-chest high range while the standout combo breaks see some shoulder high sets. It will be a little inconsistent on the bigger sets but they will be lurking out there.

Your best bet for waves will be to check the more protected breaks. I think that a lot of spots will still look a bit funky as we see the last of the weekend lump try to siphon off. San Diego and OC will be the biggest but you may find more protected and cleaner spots in other regions…OC and SD are pretty open to the wind and that may keep the shape a bit on the sloppy side. I think I am going to shine it tomorrow…until at least midmorning. If the wind lays down enough it may be worth catching a few, but hey surfing anything is usually better than work.