Tuesday’s Surf – Swell drops a little and more freaking rain

Tuesday will be surfable…at least through the morning. (The water still looks like poo from the weekend so keep that in mind).

Look for our mix of W-NW swell to back down on Tuesday…particularly through the morning. Early on we will see a mix of fading W-NW leftovers from the weekend…enough to get out and ride…but smaller than the last couple of days. New building WNW-NW windswell will start to creep up by late in the afternoon and more as we head into sundown. Chance of rain moving in around mid-afternoon and holding overnight into Wednesday. Stupid rain.



Surfwise the average spots are going to see chest-shoulder high surf. The standout WNW-NW facing spots, in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will see chest-head high surf with some overhead sets still mixing in on the lower tides.

Winds look ok for the morning…mostly light and variable winds early on…with a few pockets of light texture here and there. Look for building W-WNW winds around 10-15 knots with gusts hitting 20 knots by late in the day…chance for showers and thunderstorms as well.



If you don’t mind the sub-par water quality there will be some semi-clean waves on tap tomorrow…unfortunately there is another storm moving into the area that will start to whip up some more wind and rain. This is one of those inside-slider type storms so we won’t get a ton of southerly winds before the front…just the front and the WNW-NW winds that come right behind it. Your best bet is to find a spot that has good WNW-NW exposure and some wind protection for the morning...and then just sort of watching the rain fall and the wind blow during the afternoon.

There is a little size difference between the counties…so make sure to check out the regional forecast when you get a chance.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/09/2010 Tuesday
05:57AM LST 5.1 H
01:28PM LST -0.5 L
08:00PM LST 3.5 H

Waves for Wednesday – New WNW swell but with some texture

Wednesday will see some new WNW-NW swell but expect some onshore texture as well…overall it will be surfable but I wish we could guarantee that it would be clean.

New WNW-NW swell (280-300) moves in and peaks on Wednesday. The swell, while it is filling in on the buoys this afternoon, didn’t show a ton of the longer-period energy on any of the West Coast buoys…which isn’t a great sign…not enough to write-off the swell or anything but I think I am going to lower my expectations on this one just a bit…shave a little bit of size off the wave heights.

The Harvest buoy was showing a lift over the last 12 hours but a lot of the energy is around the 11-14 second range which means wind speeds didn’t get super intense inside the storm. That being said…there WILL be new and more consistent surf than we saw on Tuesday, which is better than nothing in my book.



As the swell peaks on Wednesday we can expect average WNW facing breaks to be in the waist-chest high range…with some less consistent shoulder high sets mixing in. The standout NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will have shoulder-head high surf with overhead sets showing on the lower tides. I think that S. San Diego will have a few bigger waves now and then…but they won’t be all that consistent.

Winds look mostly light in the morning though the weather models aren’t agreeing on what direction we will end up seeing. Looking at the charts…we can expect light and variable winds through Santa Barbara down through North LA…and then light/variable onshore texture starting around the South Bay and holding down through San Diego. At this point it looks like winds will stay below 5-6 knots for the early morning, but there may be some pockets of stronger winds here and there. Afternoon winds strengthen out of the WNW around 10-15 knots for most areas.



I am a little bummed on how the swell not showing as much energy on the buoys as I thought it would…and that winds look a little funky in the morning…but it isn’t as bleak as all that. Like I said above, there will be a new swell in the water, the periods are pretty short but that actually helps out a few more regions, like Santa Barbara and the South Bay that do pretty well on the shorter-period energy. I would try and get on it early if you can…winds look lightest in the morning and the tide will be pretty low for the dawn patrol. Cross your fingers that the winds don’t screw us up too much too early.

Make sure to check the regional forecasts to see how the swell mix affects the different stretches of coastline.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/03/2010 Wednesday
06:13AM LST 0.8 L
11:53AM LST 3.9 H
06:01PM LST 0.7 L

Windy Mess for Tuesday – peaking WNW energy and onshore winds

Tuesday is not looking like much of a surf day.

We will have a mix of building WNW-NW wind/stormswell and some medium period WNW energy (275-300 all mixed together) along with a touch of SSW swell from the Southern Hemi.



Surfwise the average spots are going to see some sloppy waist-shoulder sets, while the average WNW facing spots see more consistent chest-head high surf. The standout NW breaks, the spots will excellent exposure to the swell mix, will be consistently shoulder-overhead on sets with some bigger waves sneaking through at times. Unfortunately the most exposed spots will also be the most exposed to the onshore wind so shape looks pretty ugly for most of the area.

Winds will be out of the WNW-NW around 10-15 knots for the morning with gusts hitting around 15-20 at the average spots. The really windy areas will have 15-20 knots winds in the morning with gusts topping out around 25-knot+ at times. Winds will stay around the same speed most of the day.



Personally I think Tuesday is going to be a good day to stay in bed…onshore winds, cold air temps, and sloppy surf just doesn’t motivate me very well. I do however think that we might want to give the cams and wind stations a quick check in the morning, sometimes these fronts don’t push through the way the models expect and there is a small window of surf time early in the day. Also the NW wind direction doesn’t blow everything completely out…there are a few small pockets in Santa Barbara and North LA that don’t get super junky…the only drawback with those spots is they also don’t pull in much NW swell, particularly when the periods are short, so you might see cleaner shape but much smaller surf. I always think it is prudent to give the surf a check anytime there is swell in the water, despite what the winds say they are going to do.

Here are the tides…lets cross our fingers that the winds come through lighter and cleaner than the forecast says.

12/22/2009 Tuesday
01:22AM LST 3.7 H
06:23AM LST 2.7 L
11:38AM LST 3.9 H
07:03PM LST 0.8 L

Friday’s Funkiness – Building windswell

Friday won’t be a surf day…it may be rideable in a few spots, but high morning tides and building onshore winds will kill shape pretty fast. Oh and it is Friday the 13th…so that sort of narrows down our odds on dodging the wind bullet.



Our surf will be a mix of building WNW-NW windswell and some background SW energy (200-220). The windswell will be on the rise through the day…but will mostly be coming in from a steep swell angle, so it will skip past most breaks basically showing in a few of the top NW facing areas. The lesser exposed spots will see a slight bump in size but won’t see much change overall.



Look for the average spots to hold around knee high with some inconsistent waist high sets as the tide drops. Top NW facing spots in Ventura, the south Bay, and San Diego, will be more in the waist-chest high range on the lower tides…and may see some chest-shoulder high sets by the afternoon as the swell mix increases.

Winds look semi-manageable for the morning…with light/variable onshore flow in the 5-6 knot range on tap for most of SoCal. Santa Barbara and Ventura areas will see building NW winds 10-15 knots coming through by midmorning and then gusts hitting 20-knots by midday. The rest of Socal will have 10-15 knot NW winds by the afternoon and some stronger gusts coming onshore by sundown and into the early night.



Like I said…it won’t be very appealing out there on Friday…just mostly weak, tide swamped windswell for the morning…with slightly larger and sloppier windswell on tape for the afternoon. Your best bet is going to be keeping an eye on conditions and hoping that we see the tide drop before the winds get going...there may be a little wiggle-room in the timing of the wind switch, particularly at spots in OC/SD…but I wouldn’t plan you day around it. Even if the winds cooperate plan on brining your small, really small, wave gear for most spots.

Here are the tides…

11/13/2009 Friday
06:12AM LST 5.9
H 01:04PM LST 0.1
L 06:59PM LST 4.1 H

Links for the regional forecasts…

Santa Barbara - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/

Surf for Thursday – Building NW windswell (and the winds to go with it)

Thursday does not look like much of a surf day.

Local WNW-NW windswell will start to build on Thursday afternoon/evening as a weak cold front moves in from the outer waters brining along blustery NW winds. Leftover NW swell (290-300) and weak SW swell (200-220) will hold most of the day then move into the background as the windswell increases.



Mostly small surf will continue to push through during the morning on Thursday…look for the average spots to hold in the knee high range with some inconsistent waist high+ sets showing during the lower tides. Standout NW facing breaks in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will be in the waist-high range with some chest high sets.

The building windswell will start to add some size to the most exposed NW spots of Santa Barbara/Ventura later in the day…not much really…just a little bump before sundown. Expect this windswell to increase overnight into Friday morning.

The morning doesn’t look particularly clean on Thursday…NW winds will be piling up a few miles off the coast and should come onshore fairly quickly. There may be a little pocket during the dawn patrol…sort of light/variable flow in the more protected areas…and light onshore at the more open spots. NW winds will build in quick by midmorning and will eventually hit the 10-15+ knot range for most areas, while Santa Barbara and Ventura see gusts hitting in the 20+ knot range. Here is a shot of the COAMPS for Thursday morning…



Hmmm…small morning leftovers with some light bump…or building windswell slop with stiff NW winds…for some reason neither sound that appealing to me…I think I might stay in and surf my pillow a little longer. If you have to surf…well bring the small wave gear in the morning, and try and find a protected/sheltered spot for the afternoon (and still plan on bringing the small wave gear). It looks pretty breezy for the next couple of days…but we may see some clean up for the weekend…hopefully the windswell will hold on long enough to have something to ride once the conditions even out.

Here are the tides…

11/12/2009 Thursday
05:39AM LST 5.5 H
12:18PM LST 0.7 L
06:02PM LST 4.2 H
11:54PM LST 1.0 L

Links for the regional forecasts…

Santa Barbara - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/

Sunday wind update – Not much change in the forecast

Just looking at the wind/weather models this evening…seeing if conditions tomorrow look a little better. Unfortunately things don’t look much better…

Winds are still strengthening in the outer waters and are expected to push further over the coast over the next several hours. Check out the COAMPS analysis charts from this afternoon…there are a couple of lighter pockets in a few areas right now but they are supposed to erode more tonight.



This is the COAMPS forecast chart for Sunday morning at about 4-5am…it doesn’t look very pretty…the winds are a little lighter right along the coast, but still onshore at least in the 5-8 knot range.



This is the forecast for about 8-9am…and you can see that the winds are forecast to get stronger.



It is worth noting that these winds are being set up by this low/cold-front that is forecast to move through our region...so they will be totally dependent on how the front actually behaves. Sometimes, when we get a solid drop in air-temperature, like we are supposed to get tonight, it can help reestablish the high-pressure that usually protects Socal…and possibly delay, or even deflect, a cold front. At this point I am not holding out much hope…but like I said in yesterdays forecast, there is always a chance.

Since we have swell in the water I definitely recommend getting up and checking conditions if you live close by, or check the surf-cams if you live further away, (anytime we have swell it pays to give it a once over)…I just wouldn’t get your expectations all that high or waste a ton of gas hunting around.