Coming Soon to a beach near you!

I don't know about you but I think that the North Pacific looks a little bit angry right now.



Best part is that this storm is only the first one...forecast models are showing them stacking up out the back.

Random Update – Something doesn’t quite match

It is sort of like watching the Nick Jr. channel with my 1 year old…guess which one doesn’t match?

Sunday wind update – Not much change in the forecast

Just looking at the wind/weather models this evening…seeing if conditions tomorrow look a little better. Unfortunately things don’t look much better…

Winds are still strengthening in the outer waters and are expected to push further over the coast over the next several hours. Check out the COAMPS analysis charts from this afternoon…there are a couple of lighter pockets in a few areas right now but they are supposed to erode more tonight.



This is the COAMPS forecast chart for Sunday morning at about 4-5am…it doesn’t look very pretty…the winds are a little lighter right along the coast, but still onshore at least in the 5-8 knot range.



This is the forecast for about 8-9am…and you can see that the winds are forecast to get stronger.



It is worth noting that these winds are being set up by this low/cold-front that is forecast to move through our region...so they will be totally dependent on how the front actually behaves. Sometimes, when we get a solid drop in air-temperature, like we are supposed to get tonight, it can help reestablish the high-pressure that usually protects Socal…and possibly delay, or even deflect, a cold front. At this point I am not holding out much hope…but like I said in yesterdays forecast, there is always a chance.

Since we have swell in the water I definitely recommend getting up and checking conditions if you live close by, or check the surf-cams if you live further away, (anytime we have swell it pays to give it a once over)…I just wouldn’t get your expectations all that high or waste a ton of gas hunting around.

Random Swell Update – New NW swell is filling in nicely

So I was looking through the buoys this evening (I know, I know I should probably get this case of “forecast OCD” looked at) and I am seeing the new NW swell (290-300) showing some decent size.

Check out the San Nicolas island buoy, which is sort of an outer buoy for Socal in the sense that it is more exposed to swells in the open ocean with less shadowing from Point Conception and the Nearshore Islands.



We won’t see all of this energy along our beaches but it is nice to see a good sized lump (considering that it is early/mid September) moving though our nearby stretch of ocean. I even think that I am going to add a little more size to the forecast tomorrow.


Nice to see some green on the chart!

So for Sunday…we can expect this NW swell (290-300) to mix with some background tropical SW swell (190-215) and some steady local windswell. Average W-NW facing spots are going to be in the chest-shoulder high range on sets. Standout NW facing breaks, particularly in Ventura, the South Bay, a few breaks in North OC, and most of the winter breaks in San Diego (biggest in the South County), will be more consistently in the chest-head high range, maybe even a few bigger sets mixing in at the top spots on the right tides.

If the periods were a bit longer I might have added more size to the surf tomorrow but as it is I think that it will still be plenty fun…and fairly consistent with punchy workable waves at the best exposed areas.

Winds still look a tad dicey tomorrow, not victory at sea or anything, but some onshore flow/texture at the more open spots…sort of westerly through SB down through North LA, variable through the South Bay, and sort of S-SW for OC and San Diego. It will still be rideable even with the bump/texture…but don’t expect perfect conditions. Have a good one…hopefully the update will help you grab a few tomorrow.

Random forecast update – North Pacific, wait what?

So remember when, about 5 minutes ago, I was saying that that it felt like someone flicked the weather switch to “fall”…well apparently they also pushed the NPAC button too.

Check it out…our first semi-legit looking storm in the North Pacific Storm track in quite a while…and hey it even has winds inside our swell window.



That image is from the QuikSCAT satellite…so this storm is happening right now, which means the NW-WNW exposed spots will be picking up some waves from this early season storm by this weekend. It won’t be huge or anything but it does look like it will be a rideable swell. It will help that the swell will get reinforced by local windswell that pops up through the afternoon as it shows.

Here is another shot of the storm on the NOAA sats…



If you watch the storm in actual movement you will see that it isn’t a great swell maker for Socal (at this point). Most of the winds are going very North to South on the backside of the storm, which means that the swell will go North to South instead of WNW like we want it too.

Fortunately there are some winds lining up for our region…at this point I am expecting new WNW-NW swell (290-300+) to start moving into SoCal on Saturday, hitting the Northern Counties (Ventura) starting in the morning and then filling in further South (South Bay, North OC, and San Diego) later in the afternoon. Look for the exposed areas to see surf in the waist-chest high range…while the standouts, biggest in South San Diego, see some chest-shoulder high sets…as this swell peaks. The better combo breaks, that will still have a bit of leftover S swell, could see some fun shape as this swell mixes in.

Hopefully this storm will strengthen more over the next day or so…just so we can see some more size…but even if it doesn’t it is still nice to see some NPAC action. There might even be another little NPAC spinner brewing up over the Aleutians…

Weekend update - Stupid Eddy

That eddy on Saturday was brutal…I know it keeps the coastal areas from having to have AC on all the time, but man that was ridiculous.

I wish it was clean and offshore for Father’s day, (come on…is it too much to ask for some dumpy combo swell and santa ana winds?)…. But it looks like the eddy is going to stick around tomorrow. Fortunately forecasts are calling for it too be much lighter. Check out the NWS model for tomorrow morning.



You can still see the circulation but the winds along the coast are mostly light, below 10 knots out of the S-SE depending on where you are located.

Expect some crumble to the S facing beaches on Sunday…nothing major but nothing all that clean either. Spots with protection will be a better call, but you will likely miss out on the S-SW energy in the water…ideally you can find a spot that is ok with the wind but wraps in the Southern Hemi swell.

Swell Update – The new SSW’er is starting to show on the buoys

The long-period energy from the new SSW swell (180-210) is showing on the buoys this morning…not much is showing at the beach yet…and a lot of that energy is being buried by the high tide.

It is just nice to know that it is out there. Look for this SSW’er to fill in more throughout the day and for the peak of the swell to hit Thursday and Friday.



Have a good one…I will have the forecast coming through later this afternoon.

Random weekend update - SW swell showing on the buoys

Hey gang…just a quick random update. Looks like that swell mix is starting to fill in this evening. I am seeing new energy from both the WNW and the SW on the buoys…so hopefully we should have some new waves showing on the beach tomorrow

While the rain may stick around on and off tomorrow it does look like winds are going to improve. Right now it looks like light offshore to light and variable winds through the morning and some light onshore winds through the afternoon.

Here is a shot of the o-side buoy…it will be cold tomorrow, and the water quality it crap again but it will be at least worth checking the cams in the morning.