Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 11/05/2009

Forecast Overview

Our surf starts to slowly increase on Friday as new NW swell creeps in along with some building local windswell. A better NW swell, from the edges of the big storm in the Gulf of Alaska, will begin to blend into the mix on Saturday and will eventually peak on Sunday with some head high+ surf at the standout breaks. A smaller, but still rideable SW swell slips into the combo spots and good S-SW facing breaks Sunday and Monday. Make sure to watch out for slightly funky weather and the large tidal swings as we move through the weekend.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
Look for a slow start on Friday but our surf will eventually start to increase as a new NW swell (290-300) begins to send in some short-medium period energy and a weak windswell/SW swell hold in the background. Surf for the morning will average around knee high with a few slightly bigger sets showing at the standout NW facing breaks. Look for better NW spots to build into the waist-chest high range by the evening…top spots will be slightly bigger at times. Winds/Weather: Winds will be little unstable Friday morning…overall it looks light and variable but with a few pockets of onshore texture in a few areas. Expect NW winds 10-15+ knots to build in through the afternoon.



Saturday
Our mix of NW swell (290-300) gets a little bigger as we see some extra energy from local windswell and the first long-period bits from the bigger NW swell (again 290-300+)…SW swell leftovers continue to hold in the background. Look for the average WNW-NW facing breaks to bump up to the waist-chest high+ range while the standout NW spots, particularly those from LA northward, will see some chest-shoulder high waves as the swell mix fills in and a chance for some bigger sets by the late afternoon/evening. Winds/Weather: Still looking a little funky windwise...a cold front is expected to pass through the area this weekend and the wind models are calling for N-NW winds around 10 knots for SB/Ventura. OC and SD would see more W-WSW onshore flow in the 5-6 knot range. LA for some reason looks more E-SE winds with some almost eddyish circulation pulling winds around through the South Bay.



Sunday
The new NW swell (290-300+ with lots of shadowing from Point Conception and the Nearshore Islands) will peak as a new SW swell (200-220) fills in a bit more. Look for the average NW spots to build into the chest-shoulder high occasionally head high range. Standout NW facing spots, in Ventura, The South Bay, and San Diego, will be consistently in the shoulder-head high+ range with some inconsistent overhead+ sets mixing in. SW facing spots will be more in the waist-chest high range while the standout SW breaks, mostly through South OC/North SD, see some inconsistent shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: winds clean up…mostly light and variable in the morning with some pockets of onshore texture at the really wind sensitive areas. Look for NW winds 10-14 knots by the afternoon.



Monday
The NW’er (290-300+) will start to slowly back off along with the smaller SW swell (200-220). Average NW spots see chest-shoulder high sizes while the top spots see more chest-head high surf with some plus sets still showing in the morning. SW breaks continue to hold in the waist-chest high+ range. Winds/Weather: Conditions look pretty good…mostly light and variable winds through the morning, even light offshore for a couple of areas. NW winds around 10-14 knots build in through the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Storm activity definitely picked up in the North Pacific over the last few days. We had moderate storm spin through our swell window earlier this week that will send in some playful/rideable waves on Friday and into Saturday.





A much bigger storm is grinding through the Gulf of Alaska right now that will be sending a large NW swell to Northern and Central California this weekend…and a smaller version of this swell to Southern California. You can get a lot more details on this storm and how the energy will hit Nor/Cen California on the swell-alert that I sent out earlier…you can read the alert here…

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2009/11/swell-alert-large-wnwer-heading-to.html

Southern California will see that new NW swell (290-300+) fill in slowly through the day on Saturday and then peak on Sunday before slowly fading on Monday. As the swell peaks look for many spots to have consistent chest-shoulder high surf with some bigger sets. Standout breaks will be shoulder-overhead pretty consistently with some bigger overhead+ waves sneaking in at times.

Further Out the NPAC is going to calm down a little bit…it won’t go totally quiet but overall activity does back down a lot. At this point it looks like we will see another playful sized chest-shoulder high NW swell (285-300) that moves in around the 11-12th. Not much showing after that one…at least right now.

South Pacific
The SPAC is still a snoozefest thanks to a stubborn ridge of high pressure holding position across a lot of the mid-latitudes…we will have a slightly better SW’er showing this upcoming weekend. This SW swell (210-220) that came from an ok, but not great, storm over by New Zealand. This new pulse will start to arrive on Saturday…build slowly, with inconsistent sets, throughout the day and will eventually peak on Sunday/Monday with surf in the waist-high+ range for many spots and a few chest high+ sets at the standout SW facing breaks. There will be a much stronger NW swell in the water at the time…so expect this swell to get mostly lost at the NW/SW combo spots…but hopefully it will add enough energy that we see some peakier shape at the better exposed breaks.

Further Out there isn’t much showing on the long-range charts…just a little bit of fetch hanging around New Zealand that will continue to poop out some weak SW pulses that will filter in as we head toward the middle of the month.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
There is a little tropical disturbance starting to pull together down by Mainland Mexico that is showing some signs of development.



Overall tropical weather conditions are decent…so this may actually become a tropical depression…maybe more…in the next couple of days though even if it does strengthen it would still be several more days before it could reach the Socal swell window. Still it bears watching though…I’ll let you know if anything changes.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, November 9th, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Waves for the weekend – Fun but foggy

Saturday and Sunday both look like surf days…but you might have to push through some fog to get waves.

We are going to have a mix of fun surf over the weekend as we see a combination of overlapping S-SW swells blending with more NW swell. It won’t be huge or anything but the well exposed areas can expect some shoulder-head high sets as the swells mix together.



On Saturday we are going to see a mix of building S-SW swell (190-210), holding NW leftovers, and a new long-period NW swell (290-300) fill in later in the afternoon/evening.

Saturday’s wave heights will average in the waist-chest high range at most of the “sort-of” exposed breaks. The top S-SW facing spots and the good southerly orientated combo spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range on most of the sets…but with a few head high waves sneaking through on the biggest ones.

By Sunday the NW swell (290-300) will peak and mix with some holding S-SW swells (190-210) and a touch of local windswell.

Sunday’s surf will hit slightly different from Saturday…look for the new NW swell (290-300) to fill in and peak…pushing the NW facing spots into the waist-chest high+ range and the NW standouts (mostly in Ventura and San Diego) into the chest-shoulder high+ sizes. The top NW facing combo spots will be a touch bigger…with more consistent big sets in the shoulder-head high range. The S facing breaks will lose a little bit of size…but overall will continue to see playful waist-chest high waves at the better exposed areas.

Winds look good for the weekend…mostly light and variable to light offshore for most spots. Looks like offshore mostly in the Santa Barbara/Ventura/North LA areas…and then mostly variable as you move down into OC/San Diego. Afternoon winds will stay on the light side…holding out of the W-WNW around 10-12 knots.

Saturday Morning


Sunday Morning


Fog will be an issue throughout the weekend…so expect limited visibility through the mornings.



So like I said…plenty of playful sized fall surf on tap for the weekend. Nothing outstanding, but enough to get out and ride. The fog is a bit of a bummer…but if you don’t mind using some of your Surf-Jedi powers it shouldn’t be too bad. It is sort of a hard call for the best-bet spots this weekend…a lot depends on how your local spots pull in the various swells…I think that Saturday will see the best shape at the points/reefs, with fun, but slightly sectiony shape at the beach breaks. Sunday will have a chance at more crossed up surf with the building NW swell, which could groom out a few more shoulders at the beach breaks.

Here are the tides…have a great weekend!

Saturday
07:07AM LDT 3.6 H
10:21AM LDT 3.4 L
04:02PM LDT 4.3 H

Sunday
12:06AM LDT 0.8 L
07:19AM LDT 3.7 H
11:58AM LDT 3.1 L
05:24PM LDT 4.4 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/24/2009

Forecast Overview

Fall fun-time continues as we see a mix of overlapping NW and S-SW swells as we head into the weekend. A bigger NW swell (as well as more S-SSW swell) move in mostly on Sunday and help hold more fun-sized surf into early next week. Expect clean morning conditions and mostly light winds over the next few days.

Short Range (next 3 days now with a 4th day free!)

Friday
Our swell mix bumps up a bit on Friday as we see some more SSW-SW swell (190-210) pushing in from the South Pacific, NW energy holds, and we see a touch of tropical energy from TS Nora. Wave heights will be in the waist-chest high range for most S-exposed spots and the ok combo breaks. Standout S facing spots, mostly through Orange County and parts of North San Diego (and North LA), will be in the chest-shoulder high+ range. Best waves push through in the morning with the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Conditions look clean for the morning with mostly light/variable to light offshore flow. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.

Saturday
Our surf will be more consistent as we see the blend of S-SW swells (190-210) start to peak, NW windswell continues to hold, and new longer-period NW swell (290-300) starts to slowly fill in through the afternoon. Look for most breaks to continue to hold around waist-chest high but with more consistent sets showing throughout the day. Standout S-SW facing breaks, as well as the excellent combo spots, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions continue…mostly light and variable/light-offshore for the morning. WNW winds around 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The NW swell (290-300) peaks while the S-SW swell (180-210) mix starts to drop off. Not a ton of difference in overall wave heights…but we will have slightly different top breaks. Look for average S-facing spots to hold around knee-chest high. Standout NW facing spots and good NW/SW combo breaks will be in the chest-shoulder high range on sets…with a couple of bigger waves mixing in at times. Winds/Weather: Winds continue to look good…mostly light and variable to even light offshore for the morning…and just moderate NW winds (10-12 knots) by the afternoon.

Monday
The trailing parts of the NW swell (290-300) will continue to push through while we see some leftover, but still fun S-SW swell (190-210) mixing in as well. Look for more knee-chest high typy surf at the average exposed spots with some chest-shoulder high sets at the top NW facing breaks and the best NW/SW combo spots. Winds/Weather: Conditions continue to look nice…light and variable to even light offshore for the morning…and just moderate NW winds (10-12 knots) by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
We have had a decent run of storm activity pushing across the NPAC over the last few days. A couple of fast moving, higher-latitude low-pressures that came through early in the week managed to send out some playful, but mostly steeply angled NW energy (290-300) that started to hit on Thursday. Fortunately a following storm moved in and set up some more fetch after that initial pulse…so it looks like the waist-chest high+ NW’er will hold into Friday and Saturday.



As we move through the weekend a new, stronger, NW swell (290-300) will start to push some in some long-period energy in late on 26th...fill in more on the 27th, eventually peaking the afternoon of the 27th into the morning of the 28th. At this point it looks like we are going to get waist-chest high sized surf at the average NW facing spots...top NW breaks, mostly in San Diego and Ventura, will see chest-shoulder high+ sets. The angle on this energy looks pretty steep…so there will probably be a fair amount of shadowing…so don’t expect a ton of size or consistency outside of the better NW/Winter regions.



Further out it looks like the later elements of the storm that will send us the NW’er for Sunday managed to keep some fetch aimed our way…and even managed to position it a little better than the first shot of swell…so I am expecting the NW’er to hold through the middle of next week and continue to send in fun sized surf. The swell angle looks like it will shift a bit more westerly…more (285-300)…which means more spots will be able to pull in waves from this portion of the swell. Look for more waist-chest high+ surf showing at the top WNW-NW spots through the 30th before it starts to fade out.

South Pacific
Fun pulses of S-SW swell will continue to push into SoCal over the next few days…with a couple of them mixing together nicely over the weekend setting up chest-shoulder high surf at the better exposed spots.



Further out a new storm is pulling together SE of New Zealand that will be sending out new S-SSW (180-205) for the beginning of October. At this point it looks like we will start to see new long-period energy from this one showing around October 3rd…likely peaking on the 4-5th. It looks good for waist-shoulder high surf at most spots, and has the potential for some head high sets at the standout breaks as it peaks. This storm still has a couple of days to develop...so we should have a better grasp on wave-heights/arrival times by early next week.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Tropical Storm Nora is still holding together down in the tropics…she isn’t super impressive but she will managed to send in some background tropical swell through Friday and Saturday. It won’t be much, but it will likely help to fill in the more dominant S-SW swell coming in from the SPAC.





It looks like TS Nora will fall apart over the next day or so…looks like she will have dropped back to a remnant low by the weekend.

Further East there are a few large sections of thunderstorms near Central America that are worth keeping an eye on…but at this point it looks likes any development will be slow.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, September 28, 2009


Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com

Surf for Thursday – A little more combo to the mix

Thursday is looking surfable...winds and the swell looks ok...but the higher morning tide may keep plenty of spots from reaching their full potential.

In the water we are going to see a mix of new SW swell (190-220) and some new NW energy (290-300) from a little storm that jammed through the NPAC swell window a couple of days ago. Neither swell will be very big, but they will be mixing with some leftovers from earlier in the week that may help them fill out the surf a touch better.

Since the NW’er is starting to hit NorCal and the buoys around Point Conception, namely the CDIP Harvest Buoy, the energy is being fed into the model’s graphics...and we can see (sort of) how it will filter into Socal tonight and into tomorrow. Check out the regional charts.









Wave heights aren’t going to change much in overall size tomorrow...but the swell is going to hit a bit differently as the swell directions change. So for Thursday look for the average SW and NW facing spots to stay in the knee-waist high range with a few waist high+ sets through the lower morning tides. The top spots, particularly the best NW/SW facing combo spots, will be in the waist-chest high+ range with a few bigger shoulder high sets mixing in at times. I think that the better SSW-SW facing combo spots will be a bit more consistent than the predominantly winter breaks

Winds...hmmm...I have been hearing the Santana (Santa Ana’s) term getting bandied about today...and we are definitely getting into that season...but I don’t think we are going to quite get to a full-fledged one quite yet. At this point it looks like light/moderate offshore flow for the morning, N-NE mostly around 5-8 knots but with some areas of stronger gusts, particularly at areas with passes and canyons along the beach. The winds will help conditions stay clean through the morning but moderate W winds around 10-14 knots will move in through the afternoon.

Thursday Morning Winds


Look for more fog along the beach in the morning, but expect it to try and push off and burn off through midmorning/lunch. The inland areas are going to be bummed since the air temps are going to get pretty toasty (100-degree+ in a few areas), but along the beach it will a bit cooler (particualrly through the morning).

Thursday afternoon baking


So for tomorrow...I am looking for rideable, slightly fun, conditions as the swell mix combos up...it won’t be epic or anything, but just an average Socal Fall day. The tides are going to be a bit of a bummer...the low in the morning isn’t much of a low (still 2.9-feet at the lowest), so you are going to want to stick with spots that can handle a little more water. Trying to find a spot that can pull in as much swell as possible and still be able to handle some extra tide will be your best bet...South SD, the better S facing spots in OC, and Southern Ventura will have the best wave potential tomorrow...but it won’t be worth driving very far to check those regions.

Here are the tides...

02:49AM LDT 3.1 H
06:03AM LDT 2.9 L
12:57PM LDT 4.8 H
09:29PM LDT 1.0 L

Surf on Friday – waaaaay better than working

Friday is going to be another surf day

We are going to see more NW swell (290-300) fill in through the day and mix with some leftover S-SW swells (190-220), and some very background tropical energy.

The new NW’er will be starting to show in the Santa Barbara (pretty shadowed there though), Ventura, and South Bay regions during the dawn patrol. Not a ton of new size at first…but it will fill in the sets, and add a bit of punch to the exposed areas.

Orange County and San Diego will be working though the leftovers of our previous NW’er during the morning but the new NW swell will fill in more as we move throughout the day…eventually peaking in those areas late in the day and overnight into Saturday.



Surfwise tomorrow the average spots will hold in the waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. The better exposed NW facing breaks, and the good combo spots will see more consistent chest high surf with some shoulder high sets.

Standout NW facing spots and excellent combo spots, mostly through Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will have consistent waist-shoulder high surf with some bigger sets mixing in as the NW swell fills in more throughout the day.

Winds look good tomorrow…light and variable to slightly offshore in the morning. It may have a slight SE tint to it around LA County…but for the most part it will be clean through there as well. Look for a gradual increase in onshore flow, topping out 10-12 knots out of the west, through the afternoon.





It looks like more combo swell fun tomorrow…but with the NW spots seeing the most activity…and the summer spots being a bit inconsistent at times. I think your best bet is going to be the early morning dawn patrol (if you can motivate)…the tide will still be filling in, the winds will be good, and there will be enough swell in the water to have some fun. The nearly 6-foot high tide that hits midmorning is going to swampthing out most spots…so you might need to stick to the spots that can handle the extra water if you plan on surfing after 8am or so. If you don’t mind some extra bump it looks like the afternoon low tide might be fun as well…and like I said in the title, even bumpy surf is way better than working on a sunny Friday.

Here are the tides…

03:19AM LDT -0.2 L
09:24AM LDT 5.7 H
03:38PM LDT 0.2 L
09:35PM LDT 5.7 H

Random Swell Update – New NW swell is filling in nicely

So I was looking through the buoys this evening (I know, I know I should probably get this case of “forecast OCD” looked at) and I am seeing the new NW swell (290-300) showing some decent size.

Check out the San Nicolas island buoy, which is sort of an outer buoy for Socal in the sense that it is more exposed to swells in the open ocean with less shadowing from Point Conception and the Nearshore Islands.



We won’t see all of this energy along our beaches but it is nice to see a good sized lump (considering that it is early/mid September) moving though our nearby stretch of ocean. I even think that I am going to add a little more size to the forecast tomorrow.


Nice to see some green on the chart!

So for Sunday…we can expect this NW swell (290-300) to mix with some background tropical SW swell (190-215) and some steady local windswell. Average W-NW facing spots are going to be in the chest-shoulder high range on sets. Standout NW facing breaks, particularly in Ventura, the South Bay, a few breaks in North OC, and most of the winter breaks in San Diego (biggest in the South County), will be more consistently in the chest-head high range, maybe even a few bigger sets mixing in at the top spots on the right tides.

If the periods were a bit longer I might have added more size to the surf tomorrow but as it is I think that it will still be plenty fun…and fairly consistent with punchy workable waves at the best exposed areas.

Winds still look a tad dicey tomorrow, not victory at sea or anything, but some onshore flow/texture at the more open spots…sort of westerly through SB down through North LA, variable through the South Bay, and sort of S-SW for OC and San Diego. It will still be rideable even with the bump/texture…but don’t expect perfect conditions. Have a good one…hopefully the update will help you grab a few tomorrow.

Waves for the Weekend – who ordered the combo platter with a side of funk?

Both Saturday and Sunday look like surf days...nothing spectacular...but at least rideable.

We have a bunch of overlapping swells pushing in over the weekend. On Saturday we can expect a mix of tropical S-SW swell (190-215), building local NW windswell, and some minor energy from the SW coming out of the Southern Hemisphere. On Sunday the tropical energy will back down but it will be replaced by a new NW swell (290-300) that builds in through the morning and begins peaking by the afternoon. Look for the NW energy and some more background SW energy to continue into early next week.





Finding the well exposed spots will be little tricky this weekend, mostly because the SW energy (tropical and the longer-period stuff from the S.hemi) will be more dominant on Saturday, but by Sunday the NW swell moves in and takes over, shifting the larger waves to the best exposed NW winter spots.

On average we can expect waist high surf at most spots on Saturday...with waist-chest high sets at the better exposed breaks. Top SW facing spots, particularly those with a bit of combo exposure, will be more consistently in the waist-chest high+ range with a few bigger shoulder high sets on the lower tides.

Sunday the SW’ers drop off a touch while the new, playful sized NW swell (290-300) fills in throughout the day. Look for the average breaks (both SW and NW) to hold around waist high+. The standout NW facing spots, as well as the excellent combo breaks, will be consistently around the chest-shoulder high range. The best breaks that can really focus the NW energy will be a touch bigger on the sets. Look for the biggest waves through the San Diego, Ventura, and South Bay areas...but with the combo still out in the water it looks like rideable waves showing in most areas.

Winds look a tad funky...(of course the wind tries to screw with us the second we get waves...where was all the wind when it was flat? Stupid wind.)...the forecast models are indicating some light onshore W flow in the mornings. It looks like it will stay under 5-knots for most areas, which isn’t bad, but there may be some texture/bump at the most exposed spots. What I am hoping is that models are overcalling the wind-speeds and that we will be more in the “light/variable” range in the morning. You can increase your odds of getting cleaner conditions by heading to spots that offer up some protection from the wind.

Saturday morning winds


Sunday morning winds


Personally, since we do have some swell in the water, I will probably take a little extra time looking for surf this weekend. I don’t think I will be driving any sort of real distance...the swell mix just isn’t that great...but I will probably spend a few extra-minutes looking in some nooks and crannies closer to home and see if I can find a little combo peak without too many guys on it. If you live a ways away from the beach you might want to give the cams/buoys/winds a check on the computer before burning down to the beach just in case the tides and winds are killing your spots.

Here are the tides...hope you guys score a few!

Saturday
03:40PM LDT 5.1 H
11:58PM LDT 0.3 L

Sunday
07:04AM LDT 3.6 H
11:03AM LDT 3.0 L
05:08PM LDT 5.4 H