Waves for Wednesday – Fun Morning surf

Wednesday will be a surf day.

The S swell that filled in on Tuesday will hold/peak into early Wednesday…though the W-NW energy from that last storm will be dropping down a bit. I still think there will be enough of both swells to combo up at the well exposed spots but the S-SSW swell (180-200) will be doing a bit more of the heavy lifting while the NW standout spots drop off a bit in size.



Look for average exposed spots to be in the waist-chest high range on Wednesday with the better S facing breaks seeing a bit more size and consistency. The standout S facing breaks and the excellent combo spots can expect more chest-head high surf with some inconsistent overhead sets. Looks like most of the energy is going to be focused on Orange County and San Diego, but most of the usual summer standouts should have something to ride, though it may not be as big or as consistent.

Winds look good for the morning…mostly light and variable, even light offshore in a few spots…but they look a little fragile in terms of the overall flow, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some early onshore texture pick up through OC and SD during the midmorning. By the afternoon all spots will be seeing W-NW winds around 10-14 knots. Definitely look for the cleanest conditions in the morning.



I think Wednesday will be pretty fun for most of the exposed areas…the S-SSW swell should be a little more consistent but still punchy, and with the high tide moving a little further back in the morning there should be a little better dawn patrol window. I would try and get on it as early as you can…it feels like the onshore texture/crumble is going to pick up fairly quickly.

Here are the tides…

04/14/2010 Wednesday
04:00AM LDT -0.2 L
10:01AM LDT 3.9 H
03:34PM LDT 1.2 L
09:36PM LDT 5.4 H

Surf for Friday – New WNW swell starts to peak

Friday will be a surf day…lots of waves to help snap us out of the post-turkey coma.

The new swell is right on time…already hitting the outer buoys and starting to filter through the nearshore islands. Check out the “Nowcast” from the CDIP…this is the one that is built off of actual data…not just the forecast model…you can really see the new energy piling up in the outer waters. It is also a great example to see how a steeper more Northerly swell angle gets heavily shadowed by Point Conception and all of those pesky islands.



This is the energy showing on the Harvest Buoy…lots of long-period energy…and a slightly better WNW angle (280-300 rather than 290-300 that we had hit on Tues/Wed). It is showing nearly 11-feet of energy at the 16-18 second period range!



And here is the forecast for Friday morning…as you can see a lot more energy making it into our spots.



So for Friday…we will have a new WNW swell (280-300) peaking throughout the day (eventually holding into Saturday). This one will have some decent size and consistency at the exposed spots and even the average WNW facing breaks will get plenty of waves.

Wave heights at the average WNW-NW facing breaks in Santa Barbara, North LA, and most of Orange County, will be in the chest-head high range on Friday. These areas are a little shadowed from the main swell energy so won’t as bit…or as consistent…but the “winter spots” in those regions will definitely have some waves. The S facing breaks naturally will be much smaller.

The better exposed spots in the more consistent winter regions, like Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego will be in the shoulder-overhead range with some sets going a couple of feet+ overhead at times. Again these would be the “average to better than average” type of spots in these region.

The top NW facing breaks, again in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will be consistently head high to a couple of feet overhead…with some sets coming in several feet overhead…maybe even bigger as you head down to Southern SD.

Winds look ok for Friday…mostly light and variable to light offshore through the morning...but what looks like some early onshore flow starting to push through Santa Barbara and Ventura through mid-morning. A cold front is expected to arrive through the afternoon/evening…so look for increasing cloud cover and some building onshore winds through the second part of the day.



For tomorrow…like I said lots of waves…even a few good-sized/big waves at the top NW facing breaks. Shapewise the NW exposed points/reefs are going to be the best...most beach breaks are going to get pretty wally and see a lot of current moving around. This swell looks like it would be worth driving for if you are looking to hit something in a different area…the only thing to keep in mind is that nearly EVERYONE has the day off…so you will probably just be driving into a freaking massive crowd anyways.

Here are the tides…stay safe, and I hope you guys get some! Make sure to send me some surf reports (AND PICTURES!)

11/27/2009 Fri
05:14AM LST 4.9 H
12:13PM LST 1.2 L
05:53PM LST 3.5 H
11:17PM LST 1.6 L

Surf for Tuesday – A few nuggets

Tuesday is looking like a surf day…as long as you avoid the 6’ high tide…stupid tide.

We will have a mix of peaking SW swell (200-220) and some holding WNW-NW energy (280-300 and sort of mix of short/medium period swell).



Wave heights are going to hold in the waist-chest high range for the average exposed spots. Standout breaks, mostly those good SW facing spots and the better WNW/SW combo breaks, will be in the waist-shoulder high range on the sets…possibly a little bigger on the lower tides. Expect some waits between the bigger SW sets even at the top spots.

Winds look good…sort of light and variable to light SE-offshore for the morning…mostly it will be clean, with a couple of pockets of light texture. NW winds 10-12 knots will build in through the afternoon.



I still think that the early morning dawn patrol will be the best call…the winds will be light…and the tides won’t be too high yet. You might want to think about downgrading your board to something a little fishy-er just so you can stretch the surfablility during the morning session (ride more in-between sets…and stay out a little longer as the tide comes up.)

Here are the tides

04:09AM LDT 2.0 L
10:17AM LDT 6.0 H
05:40PM LDT -0.2 L
11:59PM LDT 3.6 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/24/2009

Forecast Overview

Fall fun-time continues as we see a mix of overlapping NW and S-SW swells as we head into the weekend. A bigger NW swell (as well as more S-SSW swell) move in mostly on Sunday and help hold more fun-sized surf into early next week. Expect clean morning conditions and mostly light winds over the next few days.

Short Range (next 3 days now with a 4th day free!)

Friday
Our swell mix bumps up a bit on Friday as we see some more SSW-SW swell (190-210) pushing in from the South Pacific, NW energy holds, and we see a touch of tropical energy from TS Nora. Wave heights will be in the waist-chest high range for most S-exposed spots and the ok combo breaks. Standout S facing spots, mostly through Orange County and parts of North San Diego (and North LA), will be in the chest-shoulder high+ range. Best waves push through in the morning with the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Conditions look clean for the morning with mostly light/variable to light offshore flow. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.

Saturday
Our surf will be more consistent as we see the blend of S-SW swells (190-210) start to peak, NW windswell continues to hold, and new longer-period NW swell (290-300) starts to slowly fill in through the afternoon. Look for most breaks to continue to hold around waist-chest high but with more consistent sets showing throughout the day. Standout S-SW facing breaks, as well as the excellent combo spots, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions continue…mostly light and variable/light-offshore for the morning. WNW winds around 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The NW swell (290-300) peaks while the S-SW swell (180-210) mix starts to drop off. Not a ton of difference in overall wave heights…but we will have slightly different top breaks. Look for average S-facing spots to hold around knee-chest high. Standout NW facing spots and good NW/SW combo breaks will be in the chest-shoulder high range on sets…with a couple of bigger waves mixing in at times. Winds/Weather: Winds continue to look good…mostly light and variable to even light offshore for the morning…and just moderate NW winds (10-12 knots) by the afternoon.

Monday
The trailing parts of the NW swell (290-300) will continue to push through while we see some leftover, but still fun S-SW swell (190-210) mixing in as well. Look for more knee-chest high typy surf at the average exposed spots with some chest-shoulder high sets at the top NW facing breaks and the best NW/SW combo spots. Winds/Weather: Conditions continue to look nice…light and variable to even light offshore for the morning…and just moderate NW winds (10-12 knots) by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
We have had a decent run of storm activity pushing across the NPAC over the last few days. A couple of fast moving, higher-latitude low-pressures that came through early in the week managed to send out some playful, but mostly steeply angled NW energy (290-300) that started to hit on Thursday. Fortunately a following storm moved in and set up some more fetch after that initial pulse…so it looks like the waist-chest high+ NW’er will hold into Friday and Saturday.



As we move through the weekend a new, stronger, NW swell (290-300) will start to push some in some long-period energy in late on 26th...fill in more on the 27th, eventually peaking the afternoon of the 27th into the morning of the 28th. At this point it looks like we are going to get waist-chest high sized surf at the average NW facing spots...top NW breaks, mostly in San Diego and Ventura, will see chest-shoulder high+ sets. The angle on this energy looks pretty steep…so there will probably be a fair amount of shadowing…so don’t expect a ton of size or consistency outside of the better NW/Winter regions.



Further out it looks like the later elements of the storm that will send us the NW’er for Sunday managed to keep some fetch aimed our way…and even managed to position it a little better than the first shot of swell…so I am expecting the NW’er to hold through the middle of next week and continue to send in fun sized surf. The swell angle looks like it will shift a bit more westerly…more (285-300)…which means more spots will be able to pull in waves from this portion of the swell. Look for more waist-chest high+ surf showing at the top WNW-NW spots through the 30th before it starts to fade out.

South Pacific
Fun pulses of S-SW swell will continue to push into SoCal over the next few days…with a couple of them mixing together nicely over the weekend setting up chest-shoulder high surf at the better exposed spots.



Further out a new storm is pulling together SE of New Zealand that will be sending out new S-SSW (180-205) for the beginning of October. At this point it looks like we will start to see new long-period energy from this one showing around October 3rd…likely peaking on the 4-5th. It looks good for waist-shoulder high surf at most spots, and has the potential for some head high sets at the standout breaks as it peaks. This storm still has a couple of days to develop...so we should have a better grasp on wave-heights/arrival times by early next week.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Tropical Storm Nora is still holding together down in the tropics…she isn’t super impressive but she will managed to send in some background tropical swell through Friday and Saturday. It won’t be much, but it will likely help to fill in the more dominant S-SW swell coming in from the SPAC.





It looks like TS Nora will fall apart over the next day or so…looks like she will have dropped back to a remnant low by the weekend.

Further East there are a few large sections of thunderstorms near Central America that are worth keeping an eye on…but at this point it looks likes any development will be slow.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, September 28, 2009


Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com

Surf for Thursday – S-swell, Rinse and Repeat

Thursday will be another surf day.

The S swell (180-190) will continue on Thursday and NW windswell will start to pulse up a bit at the well exposed spots. The Southern Hemi swell will continue to offer up fun surf to the exposed areas but the overall swell period will be starting to shorten up, which will likely make the bigger sets less consistent.



Average exposed spots (s-facing) will be in the chest-shoulder high range but with some inconsistent head high sets still mixing in on the lower tides. The standout S facing spots, mostly in Orange County but at a few of the other S facing spots as well, will be in the shoulder-head high range on sets with a few overhead waves still showing at times. Look for some more rare overhead+ sets at the top spots through the morning on the lower tides…and then getting less consistent as the swell drops slowly and the tides come up through the afternoon.

Winds look good in the morning…I feel like over the last couple of days someone shifted the switch from “summer” to “fall”…not sure if it will last, but for right now it means cleaner morning conditions. Look for light and variable to light-offshore for most spots in the morning. WNW winds 10-15 knots build in fast around midday and look pretty stiff by the afternoon. Check out the COAMPS forecast for the morning…it is a little optimistic, but it is nice to see wind going offshore on any chart.



Like the last few days the points and reefs will continue to be the best call shapewise…there still isn’t enough combo energy to break up the bigger S swell…so the beach breaks look a bit walled up, particularly through the morning lower tides. I think it will be worth driving a little further than normal tomorrow morning, the decent winds and the steady S swell will be pretty fun…I would try to get on it early before the tides and the wind start to kill it.

Here are the tides…

05:36AM LDT 3.0 H
07:49AM LDT 2.9 L
03:19PM LDT 4.7 H
11:49PM LDT 0.9 L