North Pacific Swell Alert – Large WNW swell forecast for Later this Week

   

Unless you were living in a sea-cave being raised by your evil dolphin family…you probably already know that there has been a strong storm forecast to brew up in the North Pacific and that it will be sending us some swell relatively soon. I have been watching this storm for the last 7+ days and have had it in the long-range forecast but have been staying on the conservative side in terms of size and conditions. Computer models are fine and all that, but if they get bad data in…bad data comes out. So I like to wait till I get some actual measurements from the various satellites, ship reports, or buoy data if the storm is close enough to a platform.

 Well I got some of the first real data back today…from the WindSAT, which measures…wait for it…wait for it…wind, (it actually measures a combination of water vapor in motion using “the first space-borne polarimetric microwave radiometer.” For an even more nerdier answer additional information on WindSat, please visit STAR WindSat web site. (psst I suggest only looking at this if you are an insomniac and/or going on Jeopardy in the near future.)

 

Anyway…here is a zoomed in version of those winds just to the N-NE of Hawaii…still moving towards us.



And this, just for fun, is an overlay of those winds on top of the wavewatchIII swell model…so you can see why the angry red/purple/white blob is being generated. Keep in mind that this storm is also following in the wake of the system that set up the new WNW swell for Tuesday/Wednesday…so it gets to add a sort of “drafting affect” to the swell it is generating, adding in more energy on top of already active seas aimed toward the west coast. Basically it takes less energy to get the water moving the right way, so it’s more intense winds don’t have to work as hard and still produce a bigger swell.

 

 If that wasn’t enough, another satellite, the JASON-1, went right over the storm, so not only are we confirming that there have been 40-50 knots of wind in the key areas of fetch, the sea-state in the core of the storm has been about 28-32’ feet (even if you knock off about 10-12 feet of those seas as messed up short-period chop, you are still looking at 18-20 of deepwater swell about 2000-2500 miles from the West Coast. OK enough snoozeville…lets get to our actual surf. The West Coast, mostly California from Point Conception up through Southern Oregon, are going to have this W-WNW swell (275-300+) hit with long-period energy on Thursday, peaking overnight into Friday. Most average breaks in the region will be running consistently double-triple overhead on sets with a few of the deepwater big-wave spots, like Mav’s going 4-5 times overhead…maybe even bigger if the tides and wind cooperate. Check out the spot specific forecast 
for Maverick’s here.

 

There is enough W-WNW swell (275-300 but strongest 285-300) in the mix that a good chunk is forecast to make it into Socal, peaking on Friday and into Saturday with about 6-7 feet of deepwater swell @ 17-18 second swell periods…which you can see on CDIP nearshore forecast for Friday. 6-7’ feet may not seem like a lot at first, but remember this is deep water energy…and certain breaks will take that size energy and multiply it into a much bigger breaking wave. Right now, I am expecting W-NW facing spots in Socal (that aren’t shadowed by the nearshore islands) to see surf in the overhead to well overhead range on the sets…with the top spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and especially San Diego, seeing waves hitting close to double-overhead and possibly even a little bigger if the storm holds together for another half a day before breaking off to the NE. Anyway…make sure to keep an eye on our spot specific forecasts if you want to know how this swell will affect your favorite break (a quick hint, click the 7-day swell forecast tab under the red “advanced tools” section…it will break the swell down into 3-hour blocks, and showing the wind and the tides associated with that time, as well as the surf size and the top three swells in the mix…it is pretty cool.)

 

  Here is the one for Mav’s if you are curious. Keep checking it too…the model updates every several hours, so you may see different wind/swell data if things change. Oh and I think we should all personally thank my good friend Clint for planning back to back business trips during the next couple of weeks and Mother Nature likes to send good swell to Socal when he goes out of town. So thanks good buddy…have fun in Boston and Canada! If this keeps happening, I think we may start a "Send Clint out of SoCal" fund to keep the wave machine on.

Storm and Swell Alert – North Pacific is looking to get Nasty

So I have been looking at the forecast charts and the swell models for the last few days (well lets not kid anyone…my near OCD has me looking at the charts all the time…and once I find a way I will probably have it fed directly into my brain). So like I said, I have been looking at the charts and there, right at the end of the forecast run, was this ugly mutant of a storm.



Usually I don’t put a ton of faith in the weather models when we move waaaaaaay out into the forecast run, they have a tendency to overcall things, and the timing is rarely ever correct…but in this case this storm definitely caught my eye.

Now, a couple of days later, the storm is still there on the charts and the swell models are still calling for it to crank out a LOT of swell…particularly for Hawaii (and the really, really unlucky people that live in the Aleutian Islands.) There is also a pretty large hunk of WNW swell that is supposed to head over to California, hitting NorCal pretty hard and throwing some large surf into Socal as well.

I am still a little “iffy” on the storm’s intensity and timing since it is not forecast to develop for another 4-5 days, which, for me, is still in the marginal area of the forecast run. Personally I would like to have the storm get a couple of days closer to developing before we start ringing alarm bells.

OK, that being said, lets look at what we can expect if this storm lives up to the current forecast.

- WEATHER NERD WARNING –

The storm itself is part of what is called a “complex low-pressure”, which basically means that it is a series of fronts and low-pressure centers that are all mixing together in one big mess. Usually with these complex lows you have an “anchor” low-pressure that sits up in the higher-latitudes and a series of intense storms that push through the mid-upper latitudes like they are riding some crazy merry-go-round.



In this case the anchor low is currently developing, and will likely move into place over the upcoming weekend…and even though it is the leading element of the bigger system it will be sending out waves as well (that will arrive a few days earlier than the larger system).

The most intense part of this complex low is when everything sort of collapses into one big low-pressure…which happens in about 4-5 days.



The current GFS pressure model is calling for the low pressure to drop to something close to 952mb, (which if this was a tropical storm/hurricane it would be something close to a category 3 system…which is why the Holy Crap is on that chart). As a frontal storm it means that winds will be close to 50-60+ knots near the core of the low. With those sort of winds, and all the pre-existing sea-state that gets kicked up by the preceding fronts, we can expect the storm to produce something that looks like this…and yes those are 40-foot+ seas.



Needless to say that even if the top 10-15-feet of that is just storm fluff there will still be a pretty significant swell forming from this storm.

END WEATHER NERD SECTION

Surfwise…Hawaii is forecast to receive the largest chunk of energy…likely something in the range of 18-20 feet of deepwater energy at 17-20 seconds, which can translate to 30-40-foot faces as it hits some of the Hawaiian reefs. The swell is pretty NW’erly in swell angle, which is good for spots like Jaws (Peahi). It looks like this swell will come up fast late on Dec 6th with the peak of the swell hitting overnight into Dec 7th. One thing that could suck is the winds…the trailing part of the storm’s front could show around the same time setting up W-NW winds which doesn’t do the north shores of any islands and good.



Northern and Central California will see a smaller but still impressive amount of energy that will hit North of Point Conception…something like 15-16 feet of deepwater swell at 18-20 seconds. This will show some energy late on Dec 8th but will likely peak throughout the day on 9th…the angle will be pretty WNW’erly (275-295) which means that it will hit a lot more spots with more energy than the NW swells usually do.

Southern California is forecast to see this swell showing some long-period energy, particularly at the more northerly counties of Santa Barbara and Ventura, by the afternoon on the 9th. The peak of the swell will hit throughout the day on the 10th. The WNW angle works better for Socal as well (280-300), so there will be less shadowing. At this point the swell looks good for easy head high to overhead surf at the average spots, and the top spots going several feet overhead. The best San Diego spots could see more consistent double-overhead+ sets.

Unfortunately weather looks like it will be an issue for all of California as well…a smaller cold front is forecast to bring onshore wind and rain about the same time as the swell peaks…hopefully this part of the forecast won’t be correct.



So that is all I have for now…keep in mind that this is pure forecast at this point…I will definitely keep you guys posted as the storm actually develops. Cross your fingers that it lives up to the forecast hype.

Surf for Friday – New WNW swell starts to peak

Friday will be a surf day…lots of waves to help snap us out of the post-turkey coma.

The new swell is right on time…already hitting the outer buoys and starting to filter through the nearshore islands. Check out the “Nowcast” from the CDIP…this is the one that is built off of actual data…not just the forecast model…you can really see the new energy piling up in the outer waters. It is also a great example to see how a steeper more Northerly swell angle gets heavily shadowed by Point Conception and all of those pesky islands.



This is the energy showing on the Harvest Buoy…lots of long-period energy…and a slightly better WNW angle (280-300 rather than 290-300 that we had hit on Tues/Wed). It is showing nearly 11-feet of energy at the 16-18 second period range!



And here is the forecast for Friday morning…as you can see a lot more energy making it into our spots.



So for Friday…we will have a new WNW swell (280-300) peaking throughout the day (eventually holding into Saturday). This one will have some decent size and consistency at the exposed spots and even the average WNW facing breaks will get plenty of waves.

Wave heights at the average WNW-NW facing breaks in Santa Barbara, North LA, and most of Orange County, will be in the chest-head high range on Friday. These areas are a little shadowed from the main swell energy so won’t as bit…or as consistent…but the “winter spots” in those regions will definitely have some waves. The S facing breaks naturally will be much smaller.

The better exposed spots in the more consistent winter regions, like Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego will be in the shoulder-overhead range with some sets going a couple of feet+ overhead at times. Again these would be the “average to better than average” type of spots in these region.

The top NW facing breaks, again in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will be consistently head high to a couple of feet overhead…with some sets coming in several feet overhead…maybe even bigger as you head down to Southern SD.

Winds look ok for Friday…mostly light and variable to light offshore through the morning...but what looks like some early onshore flow starting to push through Santa Barbara and Ventura through mid-morning. A cold front is expected to arrive through the afternoon/evening…so look for increasing cloud cover and some building onshore winds through the second part of the day.



For tomorrow…like I said lots of waves…even a few good-sized/big waves at the top NW facing breaks. Shapewise the NW exposed points/reefs are going to be the best...most beach breaks are going to get pretty wally and see a lot of current moving around. This swell looks like it would be worth driving for if you are looking to hit something in a different area…the only thing to keep in mind is that nearly EVERYONE has the day off…so you will probably just be driving into a freaking massive crowd anyways.

Here are the tides…stay safe, and I hope you guys get some! Make sure to send me some surf reports (AND PICTURES!)

11/27/2009 Fri
05:14AM LST 4.9 H
12:13PM LST 1.2 L
05:53PM LST 3.5 H
11:17PM LST 1.6 L