Monday’s Waves – South Swell is a good way to start the week.

Monday will be a surf day.

More S-SSW swell (180-200) moves in and mixes with the already healthy shot of S-SW swell that we had hit over the weekend. The new S-SSW’er will still be showing mostly long-period energy in the morning, which if it had been the only swell in the water would have made for some long waits and funky exposure as the swell bent/refracted around things. As it is…the other swells are more in the medium-period range, which will really flesh out the surf. We can expect the S facing spots to see a steady stream of S-swell lines as we move throughout the day and things should even get a touch bigger at the end of the day as the new S-SSW swell fills in more.

Get the full forecast here...trust me it will feel so natural in a couple more weeks.

http://surf.solspot.com/content/solspot/adam-wright/monday%E2%80%99s-waves-%E2%80%93-south-swell-is-a-good-way-to-start-the-week

Waves for Wednesday – Someone needs to push the reset button…the disk seems to be stuck

Wednesday looks semi-surfable…but there isn’t a lot of swell in the water…so expect to ride a big board and sit around a lot waiting for weak waves.

Our swell mix is a blend of S-SW swells (180-220) and weak local windswell. Most of it barely rideable if it was by itself…but it has just enough energy that when the swell mixes we get a semi-rideable little line.



Make sure to read the rest of the forecast at www.solspot.com (you are going to have to navigate to it yourself this time…I bet you can find it pretty easy).

Waves for the Weekend – A couple of surf days

Saturday and Sunday both look like surf days.

There won’t be a ton of swell in the water…but the latest weather forecasts have backed off the funky winds considerably compared to what I was looking at yesterday, which is definitely a good thing. Swellwise we will have a mix of WNW-NW swell (285-300) that will be backing off slowly on Saturday while it mixes with a better looking S-SW swell (180-200). Neither swell will be all that big…but they will be good enough to keep playful waves going at the well exposed spots and even a few little peakatolas at the best combo spots.



Saturday we can expect the average exposed spots to see surf in the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets sneaking into the better combo breaks. The standout spots, mostly the standout S facing breaks and the excellent combo spots in Orange County and San Diego, will have more consistent waist-chest high surf with some inconsistent shoulder high+ sets sneaking in on the lower tides.



Sunday a new WNW-NW swell (285-300) will move in to reinforce the dropping NPAC swell…it won’t add a ton of size but it will add a little more kick to the surf and help increase the consistency of the bigger sets. The S-SW swell (180-200) will continue to slowly drop through the background…but we can still expect a few small/playful sets at the well exposed spots. Look for most breaks to continue to see the knee-waist high surf while the standout WNW-NW/S-SSW combo spots see some inconsistent chest-shoulder+ sets.

Both days look pretty clean during the mornings. Expect light and variable winds for most spots and a few areas with some very light offshore flow. It looks like we will be fighting a bit of a marine layer…maybe even some patchy fog…so don’t be surprised if visibility isn’t always that good. The winds should stay on the light side through the afternoons on both Saturday and Sunday…but expect the sea-breeze to develop enough to driving some variable 10-12 knot onshore flow into the more exposed spots.

Saturday Morning Winds



Sunday Morning Winds



It was very nice to see the weather/wind forecast improve for the weekend…I hate seeing any sort of swell get the shaft from the weather conditions. While the surf won’t be the most exciting sizewise I still think we can get out and have some fun. Light winds, decent morning tides, and some waist-shoulder high sets, are all making a pretty good argument on getting out of bed early and braving the cold sand sprint. I think that the beach breaks are going to have the best shape, especially at the top combo spots in OC/SD…but a few of the S facing points are going to be pretty good too. Personally I am going to hunt down a quiet little peak/sandbar close to home…and if the winds stay good, see how many grumpy messages my wife will leave on my phone while I am in the water (my personal best is 5).

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…Have a great weekend gang!

03/20/2010 Saturday
07:01AM LDT 0.4 L
01:05PM LDT 2.7 H
05:38PM LDT 1.9 L

03/21/2010 Sunday
12:19AM LDT 4.9 H
08:14AM LDT 0.5 L
02:56PM LDT 2.4 H
05:57PM LDT 2.3 L

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 3/16/2010

Forecast Overview

Two new swells, a WNW-NW swell (285-300) and some new S-SW’er (180-210), will fill in on Wednesday, peak overnight and on into Thursday. These waves will stay playful into Friday and then trail off through the weekend. The nice conditions will continue for most of the week…cooling off a bit on Thurs/Fri but then possibly turning back to almost Santa-Ana style flow over the weekend and into early next week.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Wednesday
New WNW-NW swell (285-300 but with more energy in the 290-300 range) will peak while some new background S-SW swell (180-210) begins to slowly fill in (eventually peaking on Thursday). Most WNW-NW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range while the standout NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will have some shoulder-head high surf with overhead sets mixing in at times. Winds/Weather: Weather looks good again…more warm sunny weather with light offshore winds for the morning and just variable onshore flow around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.



Thursday
The WNW-NW swell (285-300) will hold/slowly-fade while the S-SW swell (180-210) peaks. Looks like surf will be pretty similar in the waist-shoulder high range for most WNW exposed spots, and slightly smaller (waist-chest high) at the purely S facing breaks. The best NW spots and the excellent combo breaks can expect some chest-head high surf with some very inconsistent head high+ sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The weather will cool slightly by Thursday but winds still look good in the morning…mostly light and variable to light offshore for most areas. Look for WNW-NW winds around 10-14 knots to build in through the afternoon.



Friday
The WNW-NW swell will continue to back off but won’t be fading out too fast. The S-SW swell (180-200) will continue to hold as well…so it looks like another fairly fun surf day at the well exposed breaks. Average spots will be in the waist-chest high range while the standout breaks see some chest-shoulder high sets. Look for the biggest waves at the good combo spots that do a good job with both S and WNW swells. Winds/Weather: Conditions will be clean again on Friday (seriously what is this fall?) look for light/variable to light offshore winds for the morning and N-NW winds around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The NPAC is starting to quiet down…there are still a few storms roaming around but nothing that looks particularly interesting, or even all that well positioned to send more surf to Socal. Over the next few days we will have a new WNW-NW swell (285-300 but with most of the energy up around 290-300) setting up waist-shoulder high+ surf for most WNW-NW facing breaks…with some overhead sets hitting the standout NW areas (Ventura, South Bay, and South SD). Look for this swell to peak Wednesday/Thursday and then slowly back off as we head into Friday and the weekend.

Further out the storm track sort of sputters out after this last system…just a few poorly organized areas of low-pressure that will be setting up some minimal fetch inside of our swell window. Basically we cane expect a few weak, waist-chest high and smaller, WNW-NW swells that overlap through the weekend and into the early part of next week. Waaaaaaaay at the end of the charts the GFS weather model is calling for a more organized system to brew up over by Hawaii in about 6-7 days…but I sort of think that it is smoking crack…still we should keep an eye on it for the next couple of days to see if the model starts to adjust its forecast.

South Pacific
The SPAC continues to look more and more active over the last few forecasts…there still isn’t anything spectacular yet…but I am seeing a lot of really good indicators that something may shake loose soon. We have a new round of S-SSW swell (180-210) that began moving in late on Tuesday and will peak more Wednesday-Friday (March 17-19). This one won’t be huge but I do expect some waist-chest high+ sets at the average spots and some shoulder high+ sets at the standout S facing breaks.

Further out there is a pretty strong looking storm that just tore up a bunch of ocean just to the east of New Zealand…it had some good movement, tracking sort of NNE, and it set up some 45-50 knots of wind in the right part of the storm…unfortunately the system wasn’t quite in our swell window and the parts that were set up right in the middle of the South Pacific Island Shadow.



I do expect some waves from this one…we will see a SW swell (210-220) that arrives with some really long-period energy around Monday (Mar 22) and then the peak of the swell Tuesday/Wednesday (Mar 23-24). This one looks good for inconsistent waist-chest high+ surf for most exposed areas and then some chest-shoulder high+ sets at the standout SW facing spots, mostly in Orange County and San Diego. (If you guys are into traveling…this swell is going to hit Hawaii’s south shores pretty good…looks like a solid S swell will 5-8’+ faces filling in fast on the 20th and holding into the 21st before fading out.)



After that storm high-pressure sort of flattens out the storm track…so I am not seeing anything super significant in the long-range portion of the charts. One thing to watch is the two cyclones north of New Zealand…I bet we are going to see some nice extra-tropical activity from those when they finally start to push further south over the next several days, which hopefully will mean some new, bigger S-SW swells heading our way for the end of March.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Friday, March 19th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Surf for Friday – Cleaner leftovers

Friday will be rideable but it will be fairly small...overall it will be a marginal surf day…but with the right equipment (and the right attitude) there will be a few rideable little peaks out there.

Our surf will be a mix of fading WNW-NW energy (290-300) and some inconsistent, background SW swell (200-220). The WNW-NW energy will fade pretty steadily throughout the day.



Look for most spots to average around knee high with some inconsistent waist high sets. The better combo breaks with some decent SW exposure will be in the knee-waist high+ range with some inconsistent chest high sets on the lower tides. Standout NW facing breaks and the excellent NW/SW combo breaks will be in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets. The NW energy is getting to be pretty short-period…so expect sort of gutless, windswelly shape…which may be ok at the beach breaks but will lack much power at most points/reefs.

Winds will be light and variable to light-offshore in the morning…with a little touch of ESE flow through parts of San Diego. Look for W winds around 10-knots to set up through the afternoon. A new storm-front is forecast to move through late Friday night (well after dark) and set up some more rain/stormy conditions for Saturday.



Not much going on Friday…just small waves, breaking close to shore for most spots. I think that you might be able to have some fun with your small wave gear. Most breaks will probably be the most fun with some sort of longboard…but a few of the standout NW facing breaks might have enough size to stick with the fishy shapes or a good small-wave shortboard. I would try and get on it early since the tide is good and the conditions will be the cleanest…just don’t expect a lot from it and you won’t be disappointed.

Here are the tides…

03/05/2010 Friday
07:00AM LST 0.3 L
01:03PM LST 2.9 H
05:50PM LST 1.8 L

Tuesday’s Surf – Cleaning up…with a few waves still out there

Tuesday will be a surf day.

Conditions clean up on Tuesday and we should still have enough swell in the water to get out and ride a few at the better exposed breaks. WNW-NW swell (280-300) that showed over the weekend continues to fade out while small SW energy holds in the background.



Sizewise…most WNW-NW facing spots and the good combo breaks will be in the waist-chest high range…mostly on the lower tides. The standout NW facing breaks, in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will see surf in the chest-shoulder high range with a chance at some bigger sets at the best combo spots in San Diego (which has a little more exposure to the NW swell).

Winds will be clean in the morning with mostly light and variable to light offshore flow on tap for most areas. Look for the winds to stay light through midmorning before slowly shifting onshore out of the WNW-NW by the afternoon. Expect WNW-NW winds around 10-14 knots for most exposed spots by the afternoon.



So not super exciting for Tuesday…just not that much swell in the water…but with the cleaner conditions and enough energy to ride I do think that we can find a few fun ones here and there. I would probably stick with your smaller wave gear or good all-round board for most spots…maybe a faster shape if you live down in SD. I would try and get on it early because the nice winds won’t hold together forever and it will be cleaner the earlier you head out.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/23/2010 Tuesday
03:44AM LST 4.9 H
11:54AM LST -0.2 L
06:46PM LST 3.1 H
10:44PM LST 2.5 L

Thursday’s Surf – WNW Leftovers with a side of weak SW swell

Thursday will be surfable…but the swell mix will be a shadow of what we saw earlier this week.

The last of our WNW-NW swell (280-300) will be fading out on Thursday while a new small SW swell (200-220) moves in and replaces the SW’er that has been sort-of showing the last few days.



Average WNW-NW facing breaks and the good combo spots can expect surf in the waist-chest high range on Thursday…maybe even a few rare bigger sets through the morning tide push. Standout NW facing breaks and the excellent combo spots, mostly in San Diego, will be more in the waist-shoulder high range with some rare shoulder-head high faces sneaking through early in the morning. Overall shape will be ok…nothing great…and it will be pretty tide sensitive so try and hit your spot when the tides will be the best.

The weather won’t be quite as warm as Wednesday but we will still see some decent conditions on Thursday. Look for light and variable to light-offshore winds for the morning and mostly clean conditions throughout Socal. WNW-NW winds around 10-13 knots build in through the afternoon.



With the swell dropping and the midmorning tide still being a little funky I don’t think that it is going to be a “great” surf day…just sort of playful/rideable…a workhorse sort of day I guess you could call it. Like I said a couple of times the tides are going to play a pretty big role in surf shape throughout the day…even though the high isn’t that “high”…I think that a morning session, before the high tide rolls in, will be your best bet.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/18/2010 Thursday
05:22AM LST 1.1 L
11:00AM LST 3.5 H
04:58PM LST 1.2 L
11:24PM LST 4.5 H

Tuesday’s Surf – Slow fade on the W-NW swell mix

Tuesday will be a surf day.

In the water we will have a slowly fading, but still healthy W-NW swell (275-300 but mostly 285-300 now) and some much smaller background SW swell (200-220). Look for decent sized surf to continue at the exposed W-NW breaks but expect the bigger sets to be less and less frequent as the swells fade.



Look for the average W-NW spots and the ok combo breaks to see surf in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets still pushing through on the lower tides. Standout NW facing breaks and the excellent combo spots, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will have surf more in the shoulder-overhead range with sets still going a couple of feet+ overhead at times during the lower tides.

Winds and weather look good too…very similar to Monday. So expect cool light offshore winds to set up through the dawn patrol and then just moderate WNW-NW flow around 10-13 knots for the afternoon. Skies will be mostly clear and we can expect another day of nice beach temps once things warm up.



Fun-sized swell mix, warm beach temps and clean conditions…you can’t really ask for more. The points and reefs will continue to have the best shape but now that the W-NW’er is backing off it looks like the SW swell is showing a touch more so the beach breaks should be pretty fun as well (and a lot less crowded).

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/16/2010 Tuesday
04:00AM LST 1.1 L
09:48AM LST 4.5 H
04:18PM LST 0.3 L
10:29PM LST 4.4 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 2/15/2010

Forecast Overview

Our W-NW swell will start backing off on Tuesday and will continue a slow fade through the end of the week along with our background SW swell. Expect fun surf and clean/warm/sunny conditions through Tuesday and then cooler (but still clean) weather through the end of the week. Small SW reinforcement arrives Thursday and it looks like more W swell and bad weather on tap for next weekend.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday
The W-NW swell and the background SW swell will start to wind down on Tuesday but there will continue to be plenty of waves for the exposed spots. Look for the average W-NW and ok combo breaks to see surf in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets still pushing through on the lower tides. Standout NW facing breaks and the excellent combo spots, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will have surf more in the shoulder-overhead range with sets still going a couple of feet+ overhead at times during the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Winds and weather will be nice…cool, light offshore winds will be on tap for the morning and then just moderate WNW-NW flow around 10-13 knots for the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies and warm beach temps as well.



Wednesday
The mix of W-NW and SW swell will continue to drop. Average exposed breaks drop to about waist-shoulder high while the top WNW-NW breaks see some chest-head high surf. The standout breaks may have a few inconsistently bigger sets on the early morning low tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to light offshore for the morning and then just moderate onshore flow W-NW around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.



Thursday
The last of the WNW-NW will limp through and we will see a new, but small, reinforcement of SW energy (200-215) fill in through the background. Most spots will drop down into the knee-chest high range. The standout NW breaks and the excellent combo spots will be more in the waist-shoulder high range on inconsistent sets. Winds/Weather: Winds still look good…mostly light and variable to light offshore for the morning and then just light W winds around 10-knots for the afternoon. Expect cooler temps as the weather starts to shift around.



Friday
Looks like the smallest day of the week at this point. Expect a weak mix of leftover WNW-NW energy and some weak SW swell. Most spots will be in the knee-knee high+ range while the standout combo spots see some waist-chest high sets. Conditions aren’t stellar either…new cold-front starts to push through the region, possibly setting up some S winds and rain as it begins to arrive. Looks like more wet weather, and possibly some new stormy W swell on tap for later in the weekend.



Long-Range

North Pacific
There is a little gap in the storm action slipping through the North Pacific storm-track right now that we will feel later this week as the current W-NW swell mix fades out and we have to wait a couple of days before something new moves into replace it. Look for overhead+ surf to continue through Tuesday and then get progressively smaller as we head towards Friday.

Further out there still are more storms sloshing around the North Pacific…they just took a short break between swells after that last one punched through. At this point I am seeing another deep, complex low-pressure setting up shop just to the south of the Aleutians that will send another large WNW-NW swell to Hawaii and in the process begin pushing some more mid-latitude storm action towards the West Coast.



If these storms can live up to the current forecast we will start to see new WSW-W-WNW swell arriving through the day on Saturday (Feb 20) and then peaking Sunday/Monday (Feb 21-22) with more overhead surf at the well exposed spots.



Unfortunately it looks like we might see these storms make a run all the way to the coast which means even though we start to see new swell the weather will likely be coming along with it. Cross your fingers that we just get the waves and not the weather...I am not sure I can stand anymore rainy/poo-water weekends.



South Pacific
There hasn’t been a whole lot of storm activity down in the SPAC after that better-looking last storm brewed up…oh it hasn’t been totally calm down there but nothing that has pulled together has been very interesting. Long-range right now looks like we will see another round of knee-chest high SW swell (200-220) arriving on the 17-18th and possibly a couple of similar (or smaller) swells showing after that.

Further out There is a bigger storm that is set to form below New Zealand over the next several days…sort of an ugly extra-tropical bad-boy being fed by the cyclone just to the south of Fiji that has the potential to send us some more chest-shoulder high SW swell for the 25-27th…but it still has a lot of development to go before it can send us waves.



Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, February 18th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Surf for Monday – fading but still fun

Monday looks like it will be a surf day…again we will have to work around the tides but the high-tide peak is starting to push back further in the morning than we saw over the weekend.

Our WNW-NW swell (280-300) will be starting to wind down on Monday while some weak S-SSW swell continues to push a few So. Hemi lines around in the background. Look for another fairly slow start in the morning thanks to the building high tide peak…and then some better shape through the afternoon as the tide drains out.



Wave heights are going to continue to be a bit funky around the tidal peak…some spots will flatten out into shorebreak or just sort of mushy barely breaking lines and it will see both smaller and less consistent. Once the tide drops (or if you find a break that can handle the extra water)…then expect the WNW-NW facing breaks to average around waist-chest high with some rare shoulder high waves (as the tide finally bottoms out). The standout NW spots will be more consistent in the chest-shoulder high range and I expect a few of the better exposed spots down in San Diego to have some head high (and possibly a little bigger) sets showing on those low tides.

Winds look pretty light on Monday…light and variable to light offshore for the morning, then light onshore W winds around 10-knots for the afternoon, and then light and variable winds again for the evening. It will be sort of cool day overall and we can expect some building cloud cover to increase as well.



The tides are really playing a big role in the quality of surf that we are seeing…so you need to be a bit pickier about when/where you are surfing…it will also pay to keep in mind that this is more of a WNW-NW swell and swell-shadowing is more pronounced in a few areas. Overall I still think that we will be able to find some fun ones on Monday, it will just be on the other side of the tide peak for many areas. You might also want to switch up your board choice and stick with gear that can push you through flatter/slower surf as the swell backs down…just a thought.

Make sure to check the regional forecasts to see how the swell mix affects the different stretches of coastline.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/01/2010 Monday
04:13AM LST 0.8 L
10:05AM LST 5.7 H
04:48PM LST -0.8 L
11:05PM LST 5.0 H

Thursday’s Surf – Playful and slightly less brown

Thursday, even though the surf will be smaller, will be a surf day…once the stupid morning tide drops a bit.

We are going to see a mix of fading WNW-NW swell (280-300) and some building S-SSW swell (180-210). The S-SSW’er isn’t going to be huge…but it will have enough to combo up with the WNW-NW’er at the well exposed beach breaks setting up a few playful peaks as everything mixes together.



Sizewise for the purely WNW-NW spots it is going to feel a lot smaller on Thursday…the combo spots are going to be smaller as well but won’t drop off quite as fast. Look for average WNW facing breaks and the ok combo spots to see surf in the waist-chest high range with some less consistent shoulder high sets. Top WNW breaks and the excellent combo breaks will be more in the chest-shoulder high range…with a few head high peaks coming through at the best breaks. Shape will be a little slow in the morning thanks to the high tide but it will improve as the tide backs down.

Winds look good…mostly light and variable to slightly offshore in the morning…and then a sort of swirly variable texture brewing up in the afternoon, nothing go much over 10-knots. Winds look light enough that we could have a late afternoon clean up, not super glassy, but light enough to smooth things out a bit.



I think that tomorrow will be kind of fun after the tide drops…I think that the swell mix, even though it is losing size, will still be able to put fun waves into both the winter spots and the combo breaks. Water quality is still a bit iffy…it just stopped raining earlier this morning and that last little burst just jumped on the back of the big nasty swill that got pumped out last week. I would still try to avoid rivers, storm-drains, harbors…basically anything that water flows out of...but at least we will have had a day or so for the crap to dilute a bit.

Make sure to check the regional forecasts to see how the swell mix affects the different stretches of coastline.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

01/28/2010 Thursday
12:49AM LST 1.8 L
06:57AM LST 6.4 H
02:21PM LST -1.5 L
08:39PM LST 3.9 H

Waves for the Weekend – Yes have some!

It will be a surf weekend…and since there is plenty of swell you could probably stop reading right here and still score. (Just stick to the winter spots).

Oh ok I will give you the details…W-WNW swell (270-300) holds into Saturday and then increases on Sunday as another W-WNW swell (270-300) jumps into the mix. There are some small southern hemi swells lurking out there somewhere but I don’t think anyone is going notice them.



On Saturday look for the average W facing breaks to see steady surf in the chest-head high range. The better WNW facing breaks, particularly in the areas known for being good on winter swells, will see consistent shoulder-overhead surf with some sets going a couple of feet overhead at times. The standout WNW-NW facing breaks, (waaaaaaait for it…just a little longer) in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will have surf in the head high to overhead+ range with consistent sets hitting 2-3’ overhead as well as some bigger sets going several feet overhead mixing in at times.



Winds look good on Saturday…nice and clean in the morning with either calm or light/moderate offshore flow. Winds stay pretty light through the day…sort of variable onshore but below the 8-10 knots range. It looks like the winds will back down a bit around sundown…so I would plan on keeping an eye on conditions near the end of the day.



Sunday a new W-WNW swell (270-300) fills in on the back of the first swell. Average spots are going to build into the shoulder-head high range with overhead sets. WNW facing breaks will see consistent surf around head high+ with sets going 2-3’ overhead. Top winter spots with excellent WNW exposure will be consistently in the overhead to well overhead range…with some bombers sneaking through to keep you on your toes.



Winds look good again on Sunday…more light/variable than offshore in the morning…maybe a touch of light texture at the most exposed areas but not enough to matter. Look for variable winds to hold through most of the day with some slightly more onshore flow through the mid-afternoon. Again it looks like light evening winds, so keep an eye on conditions and you might be able to get a little session before dark.

Shapewise…there is enough swell coming through on both Saturday and Sunday that the beach breaks are going to get pretty lined up. Sure there will be some corners, particularly if your beach break has some decent sandbars (that don’t erode away with the increase in swell), or some sort of structure (Coco!) to break up the shape. Points and Reefs are going to have the best shape, but of course they will be the most crowded too, so it is going to be one of those weekends where you might have to compromise shape for a little extra-elbow room. Anyways there is plenty of energy coming through that I am sure you will be able to find something that will be fun to ride. Make sure to check the regional forecasts for more specific details on your home/favorite breaks.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast


Here are the tides…have a good weekend...I hope you score a few!

01/09/2010 Saturday
04:27AM LST 5.3 H
12:11PM LST 0.1 L
06:35PM LST 3.0 H
10:49PM LST 2.3 L

01/10/2010 Sunday
05:20AM LST 5.5 H
01:02PM LST -0.3 L
07:33PM LST 3.3 H
11:50PM LST 2.3 L

Surf For Friday – New waves but the swell is taking its sweet time

Friday will be a surf day…with new waves showing in the morning but the peak of the swell arriving more in the evening (and into Saturday).

So this new swell is kind of being a little bit of a ninja…the initial part of the swell is coming in pretty westerly…with the main part of the energy in the 275-285 degree range…which thanks to the position of the storm is letting it slip past our outer buoys, namely the #46006 buoy.

Normally this wouldn’t be as possible with a storm that is still a reasonable distance from our coast…(it is a lot more common with storms that form up a few hundred miles out to sea)…but the California Buoy #46059 tore loose from its moorings sometime last year and it hasn’t been put back into service…so there is a nice big hole in our coverage. Check out this handy little image I put together and you can sort of see what I mean.



Also the more westerly swell direction means that the swell is hitting more of the coast at the same time, which again limits the usual “early warning” signs that you can see as a more NW’erly swell moves down the coast starting up in NorCal, through Central Cal, and down to Socal. Basically it means that you can have a swell slip in past the buoys and bam it starts hitting all of California’s spots within a few hours of each other…or if you are REALLY unlucky the storm won’t produce the swell you thought it would and you can’t tell that there are no waves on the way until it fails to arrive. Yeah I love those.

Anyway…the new W-WNW swell (275-300) is actually starting to show on our nearshore indicator buoys (like the Harvest Buoy and San Nicolas Island) and it will continue to fill in overnight and throughout the day on Friday.



All of the exposed spots will be seeing some new waves in the morning…average spots will be in the waist-chest high+ range with some shoulder high sets. Better WNW facing breaks, like those in San Diego, Ventura, and the South Bay, will be in the chest-head high range. The standout WNW-NW spots, mostly in Ventura through the morning, will be running in the shoulder-overhead range on the sets. As the swell fills in look for all of the W-NW facing breaks to increase in size and consistency…with the best breaks seeing sets going a couple of feet overhead by the end of the day.

Winds look good…light and variable to light/moderate offshore near the wind-prone passes and canyons. Winds stay light but turn slightly onshore through the mid-afternoon. Looks like they may lay down later in evening as well, but don’t count on it being bump free.



I think it will be worth getting out and surfing tomorrow morning…it won’t be huge or anything right off the bat…but the swell is filling in which means that it will just get bigger and more consistent. Points and Reefs will have the best shape…the beach breaks are going to be a bit walled as the swell fills in…expect some current to paddle against at the wide open spots as well.

There is a bit of a difference in how the swell will be hitting each of our Counties tomorrow. The Regional Forecasts have some of those details so give ‘em a check when you get a chance.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast


Here are the tides… send me some reports if you get a chance (pics are always welcome too).

01/08/2010 Friday
03:29AM LST 5.1 H
11:05AM LST 0.7 L
05:05PM LST 2.8 H
09:39PM LST 2.0 L

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 1/07/2010

Forecast Overview

It will be a surf weekend, and it will be a surfy early next week, with more surfiness later next week, and an extra helping of surf the following weekend. Really there is just going to be a lot of waves from overlapping WNW swells that last “at least” through the middle of the month.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
It looks like our swell is lagging a little bit right now…so I am expecting new waves to show on Friday but just start a little slower than it looked like they did in the last forecast. New W-WNW swell (275-300) moves in early in the morning and builds throughout the day mixing with some WNW-NW energy from earlier in the week as well as some weak S-SW pulses. Look for a decent jump in size for most of the exposed spots with the biggest waves arriving late in the afternoon and holding overnight into Saturday. Average breaks will be running in the chest-head high range on the sets. Better WNW facing breaks will see shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in. Top WNW-NW facing breaks, like those in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will see shoulder-overhead surf with sets going a couple of feet+ overhead at the best spots. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable to light offshore winds in the morning, variable winds for midday, and slightly onshore flow later in the afternoon. Again the winds are going to be light enough that we will probably see a bit of evening clean-up as the sun sets…look for the cleanest conditions at spots that have more protection from the wind (things like kelp and/or high-cliffs).



Saturday
The W-WNW swell (275-300) will hold on Saturday…probably even getting a little more consistent as the ass of the swell (which is the 14-15 second period energy) gets a bit more established. Expect wave heights to remain pretty much the same. Average spots hold around shoulder-head high with some rare head high+ sets. Better winter spots see some shoulder-overhead surf and the standouts stay around head high to overhead+ with sets going a few feet overhead at times. Again look for the biggest waves in the regions with direct exposure to the swell. Winds/Weather: Another good wind day…light offshore to light and variable in the morning and only mild onshore flow below 10 knots on tap for the afternoon.



Sunday
More W-WNW swell (270-290) arrives and jumps on the back of the swell that hit Fri-Sat, which means the size cranks up a couple more notches…the more westerly swell direction helps a lot too, basically pushing energy into spots that were a little more shadowed on the first part of the swell. Look for the average W facing breaks to be running consistently shoulder-high to overhead on sets. WNW breaks will build into the head high to a couple of feet overhead range…while the standouts see consistent overhead waves and sets going several feet overhead…maybe bigger at spots that can really focus the energy. Winds/Weather: Still freaking clean! Light and variable winds in the morning for most areas with some moderate offshore winds near the passes and canyons…and when you get done with your 3rd session of the day you can ride home on the unicorn that has been patiently waiting for you on the beach.



Monday
Uh yeah, that swell that pushed up on Sunday…it is going to hold into Monday. Basically read the paragraph above, replace “Sunday” with “Monday” and you are set. Winds/Weather: It is going to be good, again. Clean in the morning, slightly bumpy in the afternoon. Just go surfing will you.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Really what is there to say…lots of WNW swell on tap through the weekend and it looks like even more on tap next week. Conditions look great too. At this point it isn’t really about if there is surf or not…it is more about what sort of wave do you want to surf? Which is a pretty nice problem to have.

To go into the details a little bit more…The NPAC storm track is blowing up…storm after storm is cycling through the mid-latitudes and every time one moves out of our window a new one forms out the back. Again this goes back to that complex low that has been owning the central North Pacific for what seems like forever. Looking at it on the Visible Satellite image from GOES…it seems like the same storm churning and churning just to the NNE of the Hawaiian islands, stretching up toward the Aleutians…



From a pressure/front standpoint it is a large area of low-pressure that has hiccups of intense energy pushing through the mid-latitude part of its circulation, that are the by-products of warm/wet air mass being sucked into colder high-latitude low. Check out what this looks like on the sea-level pressure charts with the isobars…



If you look back through the last few analysis charts they all look the same…so much so that I had to go and double-check everything…I thought they were broken. Craziness.

Anyway weather-nerd stuff aside…all of these storms are just stacking up W-WNW swell for us to enjoy. We have overlapping W-WNW swells that hit Friday and into this weekend, setting up lots of overhead waves for the top spots. The surf will drop slightly by Monday afternoon but then another large, likely well overhead, WNW swell hits again on Tuesday (Jan 12th) in the afternoon and peaks into Wednesday (Jan 13th). That shot of energy is expected to hold decent size through the second half of the week, and possibly get another reinforcement of WNW-NW energy around the 15-16th. Man I can feel my noodle-arms already…having this much surf is going to be awesome.



South Pacific
I think the NPAC is sucking the life out of the SPAC…cause it is pretty dismal down that way again. Looks like weak S-SW pulses will move up over the next week or so…but they are just going to mangled by the much larger W-WNW swells. Expect small, almost unrideable sizes at S facing spots with no W-WNW exposure.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, January 11th, 2010

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Thursday’s Surf – Picking up…new WNW swell fills in throughout the day

Thursday will be a surf day…BUT…(and it is a big but)…things will start off pretty slow in the morning since the swell doesn’t really start to add much new size until the afternoon.

In the morning we will see a mix of leftover WNW medium period energy, a slight bump in short-period WNW swell, and some micro-lines from the S-SW.

Most spots will continue to hold in the ankle-knee high range with a few waist high waves sneaking through at the better exposed WNW-NW breaks. Spots up around Santa Barbara and Ventura will have a few bigger sets starting to slip in through the morning but don’t expect a really significant increase for the dawn patrol.

The scene at 7am


By the evening new, long-period W-WNW swell (275-300) will be filling in with the initial energy in the 19-20 second period range. Like most swells with these sorts of periods and swell-angles it will be a little fluky, wrapping hard into one spot and skipping past others, so you are going to want to make sure to pick the right spot that can pull in the new energy. Ventura will see a decent bump in size before dark…likely some overhead sets at the best breaks. Spots further south will be around head high.

The scene at 7pm


Winds look good on Thursday…light offshore for the morning and then sort of variable through the middle of the day. Look for a little WNW bump to pick up around SB and Ventura in the afternoon…while the rest of the region sees a mild onshore flow below 10 knots. Looks like there is a decent shot at getting a few waves as the swell fills in during the evening session.



Like I said I would take it easy in the morning, sleep in, do chores…basically put about until the swell starts to show a few lines. With winds being sort of cooperative I think that it with be worth waiting. If you have to pick between the next couple of days for some reason… I would wait out Thursday and plan on surfing Friday (lots more energy showing by the end of the week).

There is a bit of a difference in how the swell will be hitting each of our Counties tomorrow. The Regional Forecasts have some of those details (as well as sharks with laser beams!) Give ‘em a check when you get a chance.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

01/07/2010 Thursday
02:30AM LST 4.9 H
09:38AM LST 1.2 L
03:06PM LST 3.0 H
08:33PM LST 1.5 L

Surf for Tuesday – Still a little soft…but with some new WNW energy

Tuesday looks surfable...nothing huge…but rideable at the right spots along with clean conditions.

We will see a new mix of W-WNW swell (275-295) moving in on Tuesday. The swell will build slowly throughout the day as it mixes with some weak background S-SW energy.



Most spots will start off slow in the knee to occasionally waist high range. Better WNW facing breaks will be more in the knee-chest high range. Standout NW spots, mostly through Ventura in the morning…but filling in further south throughout the day, will have some waist-chest high surf with some inconsistent shoulder high sets on the lower tides. The midday tide will be a bit funky but conditions should be good enough to let us work around it.

Winds look good, mostly light and variable to a mild/moderate offshore flow. Look for stiffer offshore winds through the usual wind prone areas of LA/Ven/SB…and lighter winds in SD and OC. Onshore flow around 8-10+ knots for the afternoon.



I am not super amped to jump out in the dawn patrol…unless you live up north there won’t be a ton of new swell showing yet…and even though the tide is low the water is still cold enough to make your ‘nads or tatas fall right off. On that note anyone get the new heated vest from Quik? How well does it work? I would probably try to keep an eye on conditions and see if we might be able to squeeze some sort late-day session from tomorrow…and then try and hit it early on Wednesday as the swell fills in a bit more. Anyway that is just my two cents…clean conditions, and a decent morning low tide, will make it worth at least a quick camera check in the AM.

Regional Forecasts are back up again…I am changing around the format a little bit…but hopefully it will give you a little more insight (and help you find a few more waves). Give ‘em a check when you get a chance.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast

Ventura County Surf Forecast

Los Angeles County Surf Forecast

Orange County Surf Forecast

San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

01/05/2010 Tuesday
12:40AM LST 4.6 H
06:34AM LST 1.6 L
12:06PM LST 4.4 H
06:50PM LST 0.2 L