Saturday’s Surf – Stupid Eddy

Saturday won’t be much of a surf day. So I will give you the full forecast today...but make sure to check out the cool wind forecasts we have up at www.solspot.com



The biggest issue is the return of the eddy…seriously it is almost September…this is getting ridiculous. Well ok now that I think about it really the eddy is the only issue we have on Saturday. There will still be some mixing S-SW swells (180-220) in the water…they will be fading…but with the right combo of tide and exposure they could be fun. All you need is protection from the stupid wind (and since I live a little ways down the street from a really exposed S facing beach I have almost zero protection from the S winds…so the eddy always twists the knife just a little harder. Stupid eddy…I bet dolphins built it).



Wave heights will be dipping down…but a few of the spots that had been shut down by lack-o-windswell will start to see a few new waves as more energy moves in from that direction. Average S facing spots will be in the waist-chest high range on the sets while the standout breaks see some shoulder high sets. There may be a bigger wave or two at the top spots, but expect size and consistency to back down through the day. NW facing spots start to see a bump up as local NW windswell increases pushing most spots into the knee-waist high range with a few waist high+ sets sneaking into the best areas.

The models…both the COAMPS and the NOAA/NWS are calling for the eddy in the morning. The COAMPS is a bit stronger with the center of the eddy up around Palos Verdes. The NWS guys have it positioned a bit more toward Catalina...and they have it starting off a little lighter. In general I am expecting a mix variable onshore winds for Ventura up through Santa Barbara…sort of a W-SW for SB, more S-SE toward Ventura. Then SE for LA county. OC and SD get the shaft with mostly S winds. All of this will be in the 3-5 knot range for the morning and then the winds will shift more W and push up into the 10-15 knot range at the most exposed areas.

Check out the live wind forecasts for a few sample spots (hint we have these for all of our surf spots)

Sands (Santa Barbara)
C-street (Ventura)
Malibu
El Porto
Huntington Beach
Trestles
Cardiff
Mission Beach

Your best bet is going to be the breaks that can block the wind and still pick up the S swell…there are a handful of spots throughout SoCal that can almost pull it off…but not that many. There will be more windswelly spots that have protection, but even though the surf is cleaner the surf will be smaller and weaker. It will be one of those compromise days…do you want clean smaller surf or junky bigger surf…the same pain in the butt choice that us Socal guys end up making too many times throughout the year. Oh and I would probably stick with the smaller wave boards, even at the top S facing spots…sets are getting pretty inconsistent and it will be nice to be able to pick off even the small ones.







Your best bet is going to be the breaks that can block the wind and still pick up the S swell…there are a handful of spots throughout SoCal that can almost pull it off…but not that many. There will be more windswelly spots that have protection, but even though the surf is cleaner the surf will be smaller and weaker. It will be one of those compromise days…do you want clean smaller surf or junky bigger surf…the same pain in the butt choice that us Socal guys end up making too many times throughout the year. Oh and I would probably stick with the smaller wave boards, even at the top S facing spots…sets are getting pretty inconsistent and it will be nice to be able to pick off even the small ones.

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 1/07/2010

Forecast Overview

It will be a surf weekend, and it will be a surfy early next week, with more surfiness later next week, and an extra helping of surf the following weekend. Really there is just going to be a lot of waves from overlapping WNW swells that last “at least” through the middle of the month.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
It looks like our swell is lagging a little bit right now…so I am expecting new waves to show on Friday but just start a little slower than it looked like they did in the last forecast. New W-WNW swell (275-300) moves in early in the morning and builds throughout the day mixing with some WNW-NW energy from earlier in the week as well as some weak S-SW pulses. Look for a decent jump in size for most of the exposed spots with the biggest waves arriving late in the afternoon and holding overnight into Saturday. Average breaks will be running in the chest-head high range on the sets. Better WNW facing breaks will see shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in. Top WNW-NW facing breaks, like those in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will see shoulder-overhead surf with sets going a couple of feet+ overhead at the best spots. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable to light offshore winds in the morning, variable winds for midday, and slightly onshore flow later in the afternoon. Again the winds are going to be light enough that we will probably see a bit of evening clean-up as the sun sets…look for the cleanest conditions at spots that have more protection from the wind (things like kelp and/or high-cliffs).



Saturday
The W-WNW swell (275-300) will hold on Saturday…probably even getting a little more consistent as the ass of the swell (which is the 14-15 second period energy) gets a bit more established. Expect wave heights to remain pretty much the same. Average spots hold around shoulder-head high with some rare head high+ sets. Better winter spots see some shoulder-overhead surf and the standouts stay around head high to overhead+ with sets going a few feet overhead at times. Again look for the biggest waves in the regions with direct exposure to the swell. Winds/Weather: Another good wind day…light offshore to light and variable in the morning and only mild onshore flow below 10 knots on tap for the afternoon.



Sunday
More W-WNW swell (270-290) arrives and jumps on the back of the swell that hit Fri-Sat, which means the size cranks up a couple more notches…the more westerly swell direction helps a lot too, basically pushing energy into spots that were a little more shadowed on the first part of the swell. Look for the average W facing breaks to be running consistently shoulder-high to overhead on sets. WNW breaks will build into the head high to a couple of feet overhead range…while the standouts see consistent overhead waves and sets going several feet overhead…maybe bigger at spots that can really focus the energy. Winds/Weather: Still freaking clean! Light and variable winds in the morning for most areas with some moderate offshore winds near the passes and canyons…and when you get done with your 3rd session of the day you can ride home on the unicorn that has been patiently waiting for you on the beach.



Monday
Uh yeah, that swell that pushed up on Sunday…it is going to hold into Monday. Basically read the paragraph above, replace “Sunday” with “Monday” and you are set. Winds/Weather: It is going to be good, again. Clean in the morning, slightly bumpy in the afternoon. Just go surfing will you.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Really what is there to say…lots of WNW swell on tap through the weekend and it looks like even more on tap next week. Conditions look great too. At this point it isn’t really about if there is surf or not…it is more about what sort of wave do you want to surf? Which is a pretty nice problem to have.

To go into the details a little bit more…The NPAC storm track is blowing up…storm after storm is cycling through the mid-latitudes and every time one moves out of our window a new one forms out the back. Again this goes back to that complex low that has been owning the central North Pacific for what seems like forever. Looking at it on the Visible Satellite image from GOES…it seems like the same storm churning and churning just to the NNE of the Hawaiian islands, stretching up toward the Aleutians…



From a pressure/front standpoint it is a large area of low-pressure that has hiccups of intense energy pushing through the mid-latitude part of its circulation, that are the by-products of warm/wet air mass being sucked into colder high-latitude low. Check out what this looks like on the sea-level pressure charts with the isobars…



If you look back through the last few analysis charts they all look the same…so much so that I had to go and double-check everything…I thought they were broken. Craziness.

Anyway weather-nerd stuff aside…all of these storms are just stacking up W-WNW swell for us to enjoy. We have overlapping W-WNW swells that hit Friday and into this weekend, setting up lots of overhead waves for the top spots. The surf will drop slightly by Monday afternoon but then another large, likely well overhead, WNW swell hits again on Tuesday (Jan 12th) in the afternoon and peaks into Wednesday (Jan 13th). That shot of energy is expected to hold decent size through the second half of the week, and possibly get another reinforcement of WNW-NW energy around the 15-16th. Man I can feel my noodle-arms already…having this much surf is going to be awesome.



South Pacific
I think the NPAC is sucking the life out of the SPAC…cause it is pretty dismal down that way again. Looks like weak S-SW pulses will move up over the next week or so…but they are just going to mangled by the much larger W-WNW swells. Expect small, almost unrideable sizes at S facing spots with no W-WNW exposure.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, January 11th, 2010

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/