Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 2/22/2010

Forecast Overview

Look for fading WNW-NW swell and some background SW energy for the next couple of days...cleaner conditions as well. New WNW-NW swell and more SW energy move in on Thursday and peak into Friday. More waves and it looks like more funky weather on tap for the upcoming weekend.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday
WNW-NW swell (280-300) fades out while small SW energy holds in the background. Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range while the standout NW facing breaks see some chest-shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Conditions clean up on Tuesday morning with winds going light/variable to light offshore for most areas. Look for onshore WNW-NW winds 10-14 knots to develop by the afternoon.



Wednesday
The mix of WNW-NW swell will hold…not really dropping much further…but not all that big either. SW swell continues to linger in the background. Look for most spots in the knee-waist high range while the standouts see some waist-chest high+ sets…maybe bigger at the really good combo spots. Winds/Weather: Winds stay light through midweek…look for light and variable morning flow with some areas of light offshore winds in the early morning. WNW-NW winds around 10-15 knots will build in through the afternoon.



Thursday
New WNW-NW swell (280-300) starts filling in throughout the day while a new SW swell (200-220) also begins to pulse up in the background. Most spots will build into the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets showing on the lower tides. Standout WNW-NW facing spots…mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will have consistent shoulder-head high surf with sets going overhead to a couple of feet overhead at times. Winds/Weather: Winds get a little squirrely…light-moderate onshore flow sets up through OC and SD for the morning and we see sort of funky S-SE flow in areas from LA up through Santa Barbara. Winds should be below 10-knots for the morning but building S flow will increase through the afternoon.



Friday
The WNW-NW swell (280-300) and background SW swell (200-220) will hold but weather will start to get a be funky. Wave heights will continue in the chest-head high range at the average WNW/combo spots. Standout breaks hold around shoulder-head high+ with overhead sets. Winds/Weather: Another front is expected to push through the area on Friday soooo winds are a bit tied to how that front behaves…current forecasts are calling for light winds through the morning but steadily building WNW-NW flow arriving by midmorning and continuing to strengthen through the day…chance of rain moving in as well.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Still plenty of energy sloshing around the North Pacific in the long-range forecast…like much of the winter we are still seeing storms forming around the mid-upper latitudes mostly between Hawaii and the West Coast…that will do a good job producing WNW-NW swell for Socal but will also manage to bring some funky weather along with them as well, fortunately the breaks in the weather are getting further and further apart so we should have some clean days slipping in before and after each front passes through.



We are going to see slowly fading WNW energy for the first couple of days this week…but a new WNW-NW swell (280-300) will start to push in later on Wednesday, eventually peaking Thursday afternoon into Friday. This swell looks good for more chest-head high surf at the average WNW spots and overhead surf at the standout WNW-NW breaks. This will fade out slowly on Saturday but another round of, potentially stronger WNW swell will be on tap for Sunday/Monday (Feb 28-Mar 1)



Further out the forecast model is calling for a pretty significant increase in storm activity by later in the upcoming weekend. If these storms can live up to forecasts we should see another round of hefty WNW-NW swell heading out way for the first few days in March (probably around March 3-4th) these still have a few days to form but it will definitely be worth keeping an eye on them.

South Pacific
The South Pacific is starting to get a little more active…nothing like the North Pacific…but enough to send some slightly better looking SW pulses our direction. We have some small energy that will hold for the next few days and a waist-chest high+ SW pulse that arrives on Thursday the 25th and peaks into Friday before slowly fading out over the weekend.



Further out there is some good interaction between the tropical-subtropical activity (forming up around Fiji and Northern New Zealand) and the colder, high-latitude storm track just of Antarctica. The tropical energy is bleeding off to the south which is letting the SPAC cauldron get all bubbly…which is my very scientific description of storms making the south-north movements that help establish better areas of fetch for our region. If the current forecast can hold together we should see a decent area of fetch developing in about 4-5 days…which would send us a new round of chest-shoulder high+ SSW-SW swell (190-215) for around March 4-6th.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, February 25th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 2/18/2010

Forecast Overview

Friday will start off on the small side, but building WSW-NW storm/windswell will start to arrive through the afternoon along with more wind and rain. Look for stormy overhead (and bigger) surf to hold through Saturday peak overnight into Sunday. Sloppy conditions on Saturday and then we see some marginal clean-up on Sunday as the region gets a short break before yet another storm arrives. Look for periods of storminess to continue through most of next week.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
Friday will start small with just some weak leftovers on tap for the morning. Look for the average spots to see surf in the knee high range with some rare waist high sets. The standout combo spots will be more in the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. New WSW-WNW storm/windswell will start to arrive through the afternoon but it looks like conditions will be pretty ugly so it may have a hard time breaking through the local chop. Winds/Weather: S-winds and increasing chances of rain moving through the area in the morning. S winds will likely be in the 10-12 knot range for most areas with some pockets nearing 13-15+ knots. S-SW winds around 15-20 knots will push through in the afternoon gradually turning more westerly later in the evening.



Saturday
New stormy WSW-W-WNW swell hits on Saturday but the storm comes along with it. It looks like steady W winds and just nasty chopped up shape at this point…so definitely not a surf day. If it was surfable we would see waves in the shoulder-overhead range for most exposed spots and sets going a few feet overhead (and bigger) at the standout W facing breaks. Winds/Weather: W winds 15-25 knots on tap throughout the day. Rain on tap for the morning…showers and more rain pushing through in the afternoon.



Sunday
The stormy W-WNW swell will continue to peak on Sunday…and the weather will start to break a bit…unfortunately it is only breaking because a second front is expected to push through the region. Look for more overhead to well overhead surf at the well exposed spots…but shape is going to be pretty jumbled up in most areas. This is one of those days (if you don’t mind the water quality) that you might want to keep a weather eye on local conditions…if the new front jumps the right way we could get some S-SE winds before it arrives, which could clean up a few spots.



Monday
The lump of W-NW storm/swell (notice that the swell direction changes as the storm moves through the local waters) will be dropping but there will still be plenty of head-high surf for the average spots and overhead+ waves at the standouts. Again conditions look pretty crap…NW winds at 15 knots are forecast for the morning…and then another cold-front arrives with shifting S winds and more rain by late in the day.

Long-Range

North Pacific
A new stormy WSW-NW swell mix will hit over the weekend as a series of storms roll over Southern California bringing both wind and rain.



This is another one of those weekends where the forecast is pretty dynamic…each cold-front is going to affect how the following one behaves so none of the models are syncing up that well. In some ways this may open some small surf opportunities for us…we will get plenty of new swell, lots of overhead waves at the top spots, and the fronts will cycle the winds around as each one approaches…with Southerly winds before the storm and W-NW winds as it passes. While I wouldn’t spend a lot of time trying to hunt down surf…I would, if you live close, keep an eye on conditions and see if the winds possibly switch to a more favorable direction.



Further Out The stormy trend looks like it will stick around for a lot of next week…the current weather models are showing a whole train of storms just stacking up across the mid-latitudes of the NPAC...most of which will be tracking right into Socal over the next 7-8 days. There may be a few pockets of cleaner conditions in-between systems, but the gaps won’t be that long…so we won’t have much time to dry out before the next round of storminess starts. At this point it looks like consistent head high and overhead surf for the better W facing beaches for most of next week…but conditions will be suspect at best. I am hoping that the first couple of storms help the models shift around and that we see a break sooner than the current run is forecasting.

South Pacific
Not a lot of changes out there right now… we will see another round of knee-chest high SW swell (200-220) arriving on the 17-18th, that fades out as we head into the weekend, and possibly a couple of similar (or smaller) swells showing around the 20-21st.



Further out There is a bigger storm that is set to form below New Zealand over the next several days…sort of an ugly extra-tropical bad-boy being fed by the cyclone just to the south of Fiji that has the potential to send us some more chest-shoulder high SW swell for the 25-27th. Even further out the SPAC does start to pick up a bit more…possibly setting up some more playful SW energy for around the beginning of March.



Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, February 22th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 2/15/2010

Forecast Overview

Our W-NW swell will start backing off on Tuesday and will continue a slow fade through the end of the week along with our background SW swell. Expect fun surf and clean/warm/sunny conditions through Tuesday and then cooler (but still clean) weather through the end of the week. Small SW reinforcement arrives Thursday and it looks like more W swell and bad weather on tap for next weekend.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday
The W-NW swell and the background SW swell will start to wind down on Tuesday but there will continue to be plenty of waves for the exposed spots. Look for the average W-NW and ok combo breaks to see surf in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets still pushing through on the lower tides. Standout NW facing breaks and the excellent combo spots, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will have surf more in the shoulder-overhead range with sets still going a couple of feet+ overhead at times during the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Winds and weather will be nice…cool, light offshore winds will be on tap for the morning and then just moderate WNW-NW flow around 10-13 knots for the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies and warm beach temps as well.



Wednesday
The mix of W-NW and SW swell will continue to drop. Average exposed breaks drop to about waist-shoulder high while the top WNW-NW breaks see some chest-head high surf. The standout breaks may have a few inconsistently bigger sets on the early morning low tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to light offshore for the morning and then just moderate onshore flow W-NW around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.



Thursday
The last of the WNW-NW will limp through and we will see a new, but small, reinforcement of SW energy (200-215) fill in through the background. Most spots will drop down into the knee-chest high range. The standout NW breaks and the excellent combo spots will be more in the waist-shoulder high range on inconsistent sets. Winds/Weather: Winds still look good…mostly light and variable to light offshore for the morning and then just light W winds around 10-knots for the afternoon. Expect cooler temps as the weather starts to shift around.



Friday
Looks like the smallest day of the week at this point. Expect a weak mix of leftover WNW-NW energy and some weak SW swell. Most spots will be in the knee-knee high+ range while the standout combo spots see some waist-chest high sets. Conditions aren’t stellar either…new cold-front starts to push through the region, possibly setting up some S winds and rain as it begins to arrive. Looks like more wet weather, and possibly some new stormy W swell on tap for later in the weekend.



Long-Range

North Pacific
There is a little gap in the storm action slipping through the North Pacific storm-track right now that we will feel later this week as the current W-NW swell mix fades out and we have to wait a couple of days before something new moves into replace it. Look for overhead+ surf to continue through Tuesday and then get progressively smaller as we head towards Friday.

Further out there still are more storms sloshing around the North Pacific…they just took a short break between swells after that last one punched through. At this point I am seeing another deep, complex low-pressure setting up shop just to the south of the Aleutians that will send another large WNW-NW swell to Hawaii and in the process begin pushing some more mid-latitude storm action towards the West Coast.



If these storms can live up to the current forecast we will start to see new WSW-W-WNW swell arriving through the day on Saturday (Feb 20) and then peaking Sunday/Monday (Feb 21-22) with more overhead surf at the well exposed spots.



Unfortunately it looks like we might see these storms make a run all the way to the coast which means even though we start to see new swell the weather will likely be coming along with it. Cross your fingers that we just get the waves and not the weather...I am not sure I can stand anymore rainy/poo-water weekends.



South Pacific
There hasn’t been a whole lot of storm activity down in the SPAC after that better-looking last storm brewed up…oh it hasn’t been totally calm down there but nothing that has pulled together has been very interesting. Long-range right now looks like we will see another round of knee-chest high SW swell (200-220) arriving on the 17-18th and possibly a couple of similar (or smaller) swells showing after that.

Further out There is a bigger storm that is set to form below New Zealand over the next several days…sort of an ugly extra-tropical bad-boy being fed by the cyclone just to the south of Fiji that has the potential to send us some more chest-shoulder high SW swell for the 25-27th…but it still has a lot of development to go before it can send us waves.



Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, February 18th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/