Waves for the Weekend – Fading swell with good beach weather

It will be a surfable weekend…both Saturday and Sunday will have good morning/lunchtime winds…but fading swell and fatter morning high tides are going to hamper shape a bit.

In the water we are going to have a mix of fading WNW-NW swell (280-300), backing off SW swell (195-215) and dropping local windswell. Saturday will be the biggest day with more of the WNW energy holding through the morning.



Sunday looks smaller across the board…the WNW’er will be mostly gone…but there is a very small reinforcement of SW swell that will keep the southern hemi from dropping completely out of the mix.



On Saturday most spots will be pretty slow in the morning thanks to the high tide…but once the tide evens out we can expect surf in the waist high range for the average spots…and some shoulder high+ sets at the standout NW facing breaks in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego.

Sunday will see smaller surf with the average spots holding around knee high…and the standouts seeing some waist-chest high sets. (South SD might be a little bigger on inconsistent sets). Again the tide will be an issue in the morning…so try and pick spots that can handle the higher tides.

Winds look good both days…light/variable to light-moderate offshore for the mornings and then just mild onshore sea-breezes around 10-12 knots for the afternoons…though it does look a little breezier on Sunday in the late afternoon.

Saturday Winds


Sunday Winds


The weekend’s surf isn’t all that exciting but it will be rideable and conditions will be clean which always helps. I think that most of you will have more fun on your small wave gear…but if you are down in SD you might get to keep the “all-around” board in the truck for Saturday….Sunday looks pretty small, probably a good day if you are just learning…or don’t mind riding the big boards. I will probably take a look at the surf on Saturday as the tide drops but I am not expecting a ton from it. Sunday I will probably be out building some sandcastles with the kids…

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…have a good weekend!

03/27/2010 Saturday
01:47AM LDT 0.9 L
07:39AM LDT 5.3 H
02:19PM LDT -0.7 L
08:29PM LDT 5.0 H

03/28/2010 Sunday
02:34AM LDT 0.2 L
08:29AM LDT 5.3 H
02:54PM LDT -0.5 L
09:00PM LDT 5.4 H

Surf for Friday – Cleaner leftovers

Friday will be rideable but it will be fairly small...overall it will be a marginal surf day…but with the right equipment (and the right attitude) there will be a few rideable little peaks out there.

Our surf will be a mix of fading WNW-NW energy (290-300) and some inconsistent, background SW swell (200-220). The WNW-NW energy will fade pretty steadily throughout the day.



Look for most spots to average around knee high with some inconsistent waist high sets. The better combo breaks with some decent SW exposure will be in the knee-waist high+ range with some inconsistent chest high sets on the lower tides. Standout NW facing breaks and the excellent NW/SW combo breaks will be in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets. The NW energy is getting to be pretty short-period…so expect sort of gutless, windswelly shape…which may be ok at the beach breaks but will lack much power at most points/reefs.

Winds will be light and variable to light-offshore in the morning…with a little touch of ESE flow through parts of San Diego. Look for W winds around 10-knots to set up through the afternoon. A new storm-front is forecast to move through late Friday night (well after dark) and set up some more rain/stormy conditions for Saturday.



Not much going on Friday…just small waves, breaking close to shore for most spots. I think that you might be able to have some fun with your small wave gear. Most breaks will probably be the most fun with some sort of longboard…but a few of the standout NW facing breaks might have enough size to stick with the fishy shapes or a good small-wave shortboard. I would try and get on it early since the tide is good and the conditions will be the cleanest…just don’t expect a lot from it and you won’t be disappointed.

Here are the tides…

03/05/2010 Friday
07:00AM LST 0.3 L
01:03PM LST 2.9 H
05:50PM LST 1.8 L

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 3/04/2010

Forecast Overview

WNW-NW energy fades as we head into the weekend...(though the small SW pulse in the background will continue to limp along.) It won't go totally flat but the swell that was set to move in this weekend is now looking a bit smaller thanks to building high pressure and to make matters worse we will get the weather without most of the waves this time (suck it weather). Expect some WNW-NW energy to pulse up slightly on Sunday as conditions clean up...and we can expect a couple of small/playful days through the early part of next week.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
The WNW-NW energy (285-300) will back down more on Friday as we see the tail end of the swell. Small SW swell (200-220) will continue to sort of limp in through the background. Look for most WNW facing spots to see chest-shoulder high surf and top spots, mostly in San Diego, to see some inconsistent head+ sets. Winds/Weather: Yet another cold front is expected to move in late on Friday but most of the daylight hours we should see light winds. Expect light and variable conditions for Friday morning and then sort of a variable onshore flow below 10+ knots for the afternoon. S-SW winds 15-25 knots and heavy rain are forecast to move in after midnight.



Saturday
Right now it looks like Saturday is going to be wet and small (always a good combo). Another rainy day but without much of the storm swell that we have had with previous storms. A lot is going to depend on what direction the cold-front makes it final approach to Socal…if it comes in more SW-W then we will have some bigger storm swell coming with it. If it moves in from the NW it won’t have enough fetch in our swell window to do much swell production. Right now the forecasts are calling more for the NW track…so I think that the surf is going to be on the small side. Average spots can expect surf in the knee-chest high range while the standout NW facing breaks, mostly in South SD, will have some shoulder-high+ sets by Saturday afternoon. Winds/Weather: Looks like S-SW winds around 10-14 knots for most areas, maybe a little lighter up around Santa Barbara. Expect rain and plenty of onshore bump for the morning. SW-W winds push in 10-20 knots by the afternoon. Rain tapers off later in the day.



Sunday
Things will get a bit more organized and we will have a little more WNW swell mixing in on top of the sloppy W-NW windswell. Look for most spots to hold around waist-chest high with some inconsistent shoulder high sets at the breaks with some SW exposure (did I mention there would be more background SW swell?). Standout NW breaks and excellent combo spots will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent shoulder-head high sets mixing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: High-pressure starts to build back in on Sunday…setting up cleaner conditions for the morning. Look for light and variable to light-offshore for most areas…with a little SE flow through San Diego. WNW-NW winds 10-18 knots move in through the afternoon.



Monday
The mix of WNW-NW swell, local windswell, and the background SW swell will continue to hold…with everything sort of swirling around as weak reinforcements moving in to backstop the earlier energy from the weekend. Most spots will continue to hold around knee-chest high with some inconsistent shoulder high sets showing on the lower tides. The standout NW facing breaks will be a little bigger but don’t expect a ton more size…just a little more consistency out of the shoulder high+ sets. Winds/Weather: Look for another clean morning…mostly light and variable winds through the first part of the day. NW winds setting up through midday and then NW winds 10-15 knots blowing through the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
So the long-range charts took a giant poop the last couple of days…there are still a few decent sized storms forecast to push through the North Pacific but a much bigger high-pressure is forecast to strengthen to the N-NE of Hawaii that is set to plug up part of the mid-latitude storm track that has been sending us so much love.



The immediate effect of this high-pressure is to completely gut the incoming storm/swell for the weekend. A couple of days ago it looked like this close-proximity storm would have some space to set up a stronger pulse of W-NW storm swell as it headed our way. Now this storm will be shifted further north, outside of our swell window, which is going to drop surf heights quite a bit. I am still expecting some head high surf at the best NW standouts, but that is a lot smaller than what the forecast had a few days ago.



Further out it looks like a mix of steeply angled NW swell (290-300) and NW windswell will fill in late on Monday (March 8) with some knee-chest high surf at the average spots and a few shoulder high sets at the standouts. This will strengthen a bit more Tuesday/Wednesday but it looks like local winds will increase as well (which means springtime suckiness might be just around the corner).

Hopefully this is just the model getting all tweaky…and not the end to this radical winter…but we are getting on in the season, so don’t be surprised when the NPAC swells getting less and less consistent.

South Pacific
The SPAC, despite showing some promise in the last few days of forecast runs hasn’t really been able to produce anything all that impressive. There are a few small SW pulses that have been kicked out but nothing that will do much to break-up or push through the much more dominant NPAC energy. We can expect a mix of SW swell (200-220) that shows knee-high+ waves at the well exposed spots for most of this week…with a slightly bigger reinforcement (more knee-waist high+) moving in Thursday and Friday before fading out on Saturday. This trend will continue through to Monday (March 8) where we will see yet another small pulse of energy arrive.



Further out the long-range charts are teasing us with yet another potential storm…possibly forming up in the next 2 days that could send another SSW-SW pulse our direction for around the 16-17th. This one is looking better than the last forecast which is nice since the NPAC is starting to cool off. Even further out it looks like a better storm may form up early next week that could have a bigger SSW-SW pulse headed our way for March 18-20th….nothing set in stone but worth watching over the weekend.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, March 8th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Tuesday’s Surf – Cleaning up…with a few waves still out there

Tuesday will be a surf day.

Conditions clean up on Tuesday and we should still have enough swell in the water to get out and ride a few at the better exposed breaks. WNW-NW swell (280-300) that showed over the weekend continues to fade out while small SW energy holds in the background.



Sizewise…most WNW-NW facing spots and the good combo breaks will be in the waist-chest high range…mostly on the lower tides. The standout NW facing breaks, in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will see surf in the chest-shoulder high range with a chance at some bigger sets at the best combo spots in San Diego (which has a little more exposure to the NW swell).

Winds will be clean in the morning with mostly light and variable to light offshore flow on tap for most areas. Look for the winds to stay light through midmorning before slowly shifting onshore out of the WNW-NW by the afternoon. Expect WNW-NW winds around 10-14 knots for most exposed spots by the afternoon.



So not super exciting for Tuesday…just not that much swell in the water…but with the cleaner conditions and enough energy to ride I do think that we can find a few fun ones here and there. I would probably stick with your smaller wave gear or good all-round board for most spots…maybe a faster shape if you live down in SD. I would try and get on it early because the nice winds won’t hold together forever and it will be cleaner the earlier you head out.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/23/2010 Tuesday
03:44AM LST 4.9 H
11:54AM LST -0.2 L
06:46PM LST 3.1 H
10:44PM LST 2.5 L

Wednesday’s Choppy Brown Poo Water – that pretty much sums it up

Wednesday won’t be much of a surf day…but there may be a little semi-surf window showing in the morning at spots with some protection from the WNW-NW winds.

We will see a mix of fading W-NW energy (that peaked over the weekend and the little reinforcement that filtered through on Mon/Tues). There will also be some new NW windswell in the mix, as well as some very weak SW energy.



Most spots will continue to hold around the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets showing during the lower tides. The top WNW-NW facing breaks will see surf more in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets pushing in on the better parts of the tide swing.

Weatherwise things still look a bit unstable…we had some rain and wind here on Tuesday but another portion of the storm (an upper-level low) is still on its way and is forecast to move over the region late tonight and into early Wednesday. This being said it looks like winds will shift a little more to the North on Tuesday night…possibly holding through to early Wednesday morning…if this is the case we will have at least a small window for cleaner surf early. The only bummer is that we have to push through a 5’+ high tide that also comes through right during the dawn patrol. Look for WNW-NW winds to come onshore around midmorning and then gusty/breezy NW winds strengthen to about 10-20 knots by the afternoon.



So like I said…not looking that great tomorrow but with at least a chance at seeing some semi-rideable shape in a few of the protected spots in the morning. Personally, when the winds/weather are so funky, I usually try and jump on the computer and check the winds (or the cams if there is enough light) before burning much gas getting down to the beach...at 3 bucks a gallon it is practically liquid gold.

There is a little size difference between the counties…so make sure to check out the regional forecast when you get a chance.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/10/2010 Wednesday
12:43AM LST 2.2 L
06:40AM LST 5.3 H
01:59PM LST -0.6 L
08:22PM LST 3.6 H

Tuesday’s Surf – Leftovers but with some new WNW-NW swell showing out back

Tuesday will be a surf day…though it will still pay off to work around the high tide peak.

Tuesday will be a bit of transition day…the WNW-NW swell from the weekend will continue to drop off but another round of WNW-NW energy (280-300) will begin filling in as we move throughout the day. This new swell will be showing some new lines for exposed spots in Santa Barbara and Ventura during the morning…while spots further south will have mostly leftovers. By the afternoon the better WNW-NW breaks should be seeing at least a little more consistency.



Look for most average WNW facing breaks to see waist-chest high surf…standout NW breaks will be closer to shoulder high though the early morning. Things slow down again with the AM high tide but as the tide drops we should see more consistency and some bigger surf as the new WNW-NW’er fills in. I expect that the really exposed spots, mostly in Ventura, will have some head high+ sets showing before sunset…but don’t expect quite that much energy further south…the swell will fill in more after dark and will eventually peak on Wednesday.

Winds look good for the morning…mostly light and variable to light ESE. Winds shift more S-SW onshore around 10-12 knots for the afternoon. Chance of light showers developing overnight into Wednesday.



Now that the tide is shifting a little further back in the day I think we will have a bit more of a surf window in the morning…it will still swamp out pretty fast but there should be more to work with than the last couple of days. Unfortunately the surf is going to be a little weak in most areas early on, mostly because it will be just leftover WNW swell and weak S-SSW swell in the water, but if you bring the right gear you should still be able to have some fun. It looks like the wind may get to it by the afternoon but with the new swell filling in and the lower afternoon tide I still think it will warrant at least a quick surf-cam check late in the day.

Make sure to check the regional forecasts to see how the swell mix affects the different stretches of coastline.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/02/2010 Tuesday
05:09AM LST 0.8 L
10:56AM LST 4.8 H
05:25PM LST -0.1 L
11:47PM LST 5.0 H

Surf for Monday – fading but still fun

Monday looks like it will be a surf day…again we will have to work around the tides but the high-tide peak is starting to push back further in the morning than we saw over the weekend.

Our WNW-NW swell (280-300) will be starting to wind down on Monday while some weak S-SSW swell continues to push a few So. Hemi lines around in the background. Look for another fairly slow start in the morning thanks to the building high tide peak…and then some better shape through the afternoon as the tide drains out.



Wave heights are going to continue to be a bit funky around the tidal peak…some spots will flatten out into shorebreak or just sort of mushy barely breaking lines and it will see both smaller and less consistent. Once the tide drops (or if you find a break that can handle the extra water)…then expect the WNW-NW facing breaks to average around waist-chest high with some rare shoulder high waves (as the tide finally bottoms out). The standout NW spots will be more consistent in the chest-shoulder high range and I expect a few of the better exposed spots down in San Diego to have some head high (and possibly a little bigger) sets showing on those low tides.

Winds look pretty light on Monday…light and variable to light offshore for the morning, then light onshore W winds around 10-knots for the afternoon, and then light and variable winds again for the evening. It will be sort of cool day overall and we can expect some building cloud cover to increase as well.



The tides are really playing a big role in the quality of surf that we are seeing…so you need to be a bit pickier about when/where you are surfing…it will also pay to keep in mind that this is more of a WNW-NW swell and swell-shadowing is more pronounced in a few areas. Overall I still think that we will be able to find some fun ones on Monday, it will just be on the other side of the tide peak for many areas. You might also want to switch up your board choice and stick with gear that can push you through flatter/slower surf as the swell backs down…just a thought.

Make sure to check the regional forecasts to see how the swell mix affects the different stretches of coastline.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

02/01/2010 Monday
04:13AM LST 0.8 L
10:05AM LST 5.7 H
04:48PM LST -0.8 L
11:05PM LST 5.0 H

Thursday’s Surf – Playful and slightly less brown

Thursday, even though the surf will be smaller, will be a surf day…once the stupid morning tide drops a bit.

We are going to see a mix of fading WNW-NW swell (280-300) and some building S-SSW swell (180-210). The S-SSW’er isn’t going to be huge…but it will have enough to combo up with the WNW-NW’er at the well exposed beach breaks setting up a few playful peaks as everything mixes together.



Sizewise for the purely WNW-NW spots it is going to feel a lot smaller on Thursday…the combo spots are going to be smaller as well but won’t drop off quite as fast. Look for average WNW facing breaks and the ok combo spots to see surf in the waist-chest high range with some less consistent shoulder high sets. Top WNW breaks and the excellent combo breaks will be more in the chest-shoulder high range…with a few head high peaks coming through at the best breaks. Shape will be a little slow in the morning thanks to the high tide but it will improve as the tide backs down.

Winds look good…mostly light and variable to slightly offshore in the morning…and then a sort of swirly variable texture brewing up in the afternoon, nothing go much over 10-knots. Winds look light enough that we could have a late afternoon clean up, not super glassy, but light enough to smooth things out a bit.



I think that tomorrow will be kind of fun after the tide drops…I think that the swell mix, even though it is losing size, will still be able to put fun waves into both the winter spots and the combo breaks. Water quality is still a bit iffy…it just stopped raining earlier this morning and that last little burst just jumped on the back of the big nasty swill that got pumped out last week. I would still try to avoid rivers, storm-drains, harbors…basically anything that water flows out of...but at least we will have had a day or so for the crap to dilute a bit.

Make sure to check the regional forecasts to see how the swell mix affects the different stretches of coastline.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

01/28/2010 Thursday
12:49AM LST 1.8 L
06:57AM LST 6.4 H
02:21PM LST -1.5 L
08:39PM LST 3.9 H

Monday’s Surf – Clean and slowly fading

Monday looks like a surf day…but you will need to stick to the top NW exposed spots if you are looking for bigger size and more consistency.

In the water we are going to see a mix of backing off WNW-NW swell (280-300) and some trace SW energy (210-220). A lot of the North Pacific energy is starting to turn pretty steep in swell direction…which reflects how the storm moved through our swell window (eventually hitting further North along the West Coast…and into Canada)…so most of swell is now coming in around 290-300 but with the majority of the energy at 295+.

I know “great lots of numbers…just what I need on a weekend”…basically it comes down to this...with the angle getting steeper (and the swell periods shortening up) less spots are going to be able to pick up the NW swell, which means that wave heights are going to drop pretty fast if your spot/region has less exposure to that swell angle. NW spots will still have some playful sizes but expect them to be on the way down as well.



For our surf tomorrow…most of the average WNW-NW breaks and the better combo spots are going to be in the waist-chest high range. The standout NW facing breaks, in Ventura, the South Bay, and in particular San Diego, will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets still pushing through on the higher tides.

Winds look good…light/moderate NE winds for SB and Ventura…and light offshore for everywhere else. Winds stay light through the middle of the day and then come onshore out of the NW around 10-13 knots.



If you have a good NW spot close by (and by good I mean exposed to short-medium period NW energy around 295 degrees)…that is going to be the best call by far. If you don’t have a NW facing spot then you are going to want to check the other “winter” spots close by…but don’t expect a ton of size or consistency as the swell fades. I don’t think it will be worth driving too far for this swell, but I would tack on another 10 minutes if a good spot is close.


Here are the tides… (I am skipping the regional forecasts for the evening…they will be updated again Monday evening).

11/23/2009 Mon
03:11AM LST 3.6 H
07:19AM LST 3.3 L
12:28PM LST 4.0 H
08:29PM LST 0.9 L

Friday’s Surf – Backing off but still fun

Friday will be a surf day…but like most of the week you will need to watch the tidal swing and your exposure to the WNW-NW swell.

In the water, you guessed it, we are going to have a slowly fading mix of WNW-NW energy (280-300) and some very background SW swell (200-220). Look for the biggest and most consistent waves through the morning before the high tide gets after it.



Average WNW-NW facing breaks will have knee-chest high surf…with more consistent sets through the morning. Top NW facing breaks…still in the Ventura, South Bay, San Diego areas…will be in the chest-shoulder high range, with a few bigger sets showing at the top SD spots.

Winds will still be good in the morning…mostly light and variable with some ESE-SE winds blowing through parts of San Diego and Orange County. Look for mostly light winds and slightly texture conditions through the first half of the day and then light onshore winds around 10-12 knots arriving through the afternoon. Eventually winds pick up out of the NW after sundown and we see a chance for some showers as well.



So even though the swell will drop off tomorrow it won’t completely fade out and the tides will get a little better for the dawn patrol as the peak of the high tide pushes back till about 10am. I think that the early morning surf is going to be the most fun…there will be more swell in the water…there will be a little bit of the “tide push” that seems to help shape and consistency…and conditions will be the cleanest of the day. If you can find a spot that does ok with a higher tide it will keep you out surfing longer. The afternoon looks a little sketchier as winds start to swirl up...I would try and get out earlier if you can.

Here are the tides…

11/20/2009 Friday
03:45AM LST 2.8 L
09:58AM LST 5.4 H
05:53PM LST 0.1 L

Oh yeah one more thing…one of the blog readers, Felipe, is trying to raise money for “Movember” which is where participants grow mustaches in support and awareness of Men’s Cancer…namely prostrate and testicular (I knew I would work those words into the forecast one day, it was only a matter of time). If you have ever thought about contributing to a cause like this he would appreciate if you could help his Movember Team (the Moustache Rides) hit their goal. Here is the link if you would like more detail…and to check out Felipe’s ‘stache.

http://us.movember.com/mospace/312070/


Links for the regional forecasts…

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/