Thursday’s Surf – Bigger SW swell starts to arrive...yeah for swell.

Thursday will be another good surf day…particularly for the S-SW facing spots and good combo breaks.

New S-SW swell (185-210) will start to arrive with long-period energy (20+ seconds) early Thursday morning and will blend in with the already existing mix of SW and WNW energy. Exposed areas can expect consistent chest-shoulder high+ surf through the morning while the standouts start seeing some head high+ sets as we move past the morning low tide.

Definitely expect bigger and more consistent surf to arrive as we head into the afternoon…and remember that the peak of the swell will actually be arriving on Friday.

About the only thing that I am a little concerned about is that there could be some wind issues on Thursday. Winds are getting strong in the outer waters and there is a chance that they will edge over SoCal tweaking our conditions.

Likely what will happen is that these winds will set up a bit of an eddy that will keep the stronger NW flow from tearing us up…but it does mean that we may have some mild-moderate southerly flow coming through in the morning…particularly for San Diego and Orange County. (LA, Ventura, and Santa Barbara will be more under the influence of the NW flow).

This image is actually the current wind pattern that we are seeing this afternoon (Wednesday around 3pm) but it may stay consistent overnight and into tomorrow morning.



There will still be some decent size differences between regions so I will break them out again so you can plan your session better…

Santa Barbara will continue to be shadowed from this swell mix. Expect more knee-waist high+ surf for the better breaks…and maybe a few chest high+ sets at the absolute best summer breaks.

Ventura pulls in more of the swell but is still on the shadowed side. South County breaks are way more exposed and will pick up more of the WNW energy as well. Most breaks will be around waist-chest high+ but the South County standouts will have shoulder-head high sets as the SW’er gets more established in the afternoon.

LA County will have a lot of fun surf at the exposed areas…northern LA and the north half of the South Bay will be the biggest with chest-shoulder high surf for the average spots and some head high+ sets hitting the standout combo breaks.

Orange County and San Diego County will continue to see the biggest surf. Expect most S facing breaks to be in the shoulder-head high range with sets starting to go overhead on the tide push in the morning and getting more consistently overhead by the evening. I am not sure there will be enough WNW swell to break up the bigger S swell (cross your fingers that the windswell picks up a couple of notches)…so point and reefs may be your best call for shape…remember too that we may have S winds in the morning so look for spots with a little more protection from the wind.

Personally I am locked into surfing North OC tomorrow…so I am hoping extra hard for a little more windswell and a lot less eddy winds in the morning so that the surf will be a bit more peaky at the beach breaks. At this point I am not holding my breath that it will happen…but I am going to do a little wind dance later this evening to see if I can help stack the deck a little bit.

Wednesday’s Surf – More swell and more wind

Wednesday will be a good surf day. Winds may be an issue in the afternoon but we will have plenty of S-SW swell showing at the exposed areas.

Check it out…the initial S-SW swell has already started filling in today. (This will strengthen into Wednesday. Then a second, stronger S-SW’er will fill in late Wednesday and peak Thursday and Friday…yeah S swell for everyone!)

This is a shot from one of the best buoy websites out there (both out of free and paid websites). It is run out of the Scripps group down in San Diego...and you can access the data from this link here http://www.lajollasurf.org/buoylist.html or from the link list on the right hand side of the blog.

On Wednesday we will have a mix of S-SW swell (190-210) and blend of WNW energy. A few spots will get left out of the swell mix so I will break it down by region to be a little clearer.

Santa Barbara’s surf will be pretty shadowed from both of these swells (damn Channel Islands!). Expect most spots to hold in the knee-waist high range while a few of the more exposed areas, near the southern county border, will have some chest high sets.

Ventura is more exposed to the swell mix…expect north county spots, particularly the points, to be smaller mostly knee-chest high. South County breaks will have shoulder high+ sets at the better beach breaks.

LA County will be pretty fun…northern LA and the north half of the South Bay will be in the waist-chest+shoulder high range while a few of the standout breaks see some inconsistent head high sets mixing in…particularly by the afternoon. The South Bay breaks may be a little more consistent and crossed up as it pulls in more of the WNW swell.

Orange and San Diego counties will be the biggest. Expect most S facing breaks to be in the chest-shoulder high range with head high sets. The standout S swell spots and really good combo breaks will be more consistently in the head high range and we can expect a few bigger waves sneaking through as we hit the afternoon.

Winds and weather look OK in the morning. Mostly light and variable to light onshore out of the S as a slight eddy starts to form…it should be surfable most spots but maybe a little lumpy at the most unprotected beaches. The afternoon should be a drag…NW winds 10-20 knots build in quickly through the second half of the day.

Your best bet is going to be to get on it early before the wind starts to tear it up. Head to SD and OC is you are looking for bigger waves…but any S facing spot (that isn’t heavily shadowed) should be pretty fun. Remember not to burn yourself out…there will be more S swell on tap through the rest of the week and the weekend.

SW Swell Alert – UPDATE 2! (Update Dos!)

I was just giving the forecast maps a quick once over this afternoon and thought I would give a shout out on this SW’er that we have coming in this week.

Things are still looking solid. As I said in previous posts Mainland Mex and Northern Central America will be the biggest but most of Central America, Baja, and California will have some consistently overhead (and overhead+) surf from this one too.

For the most part California is looking good…but we may have some wind problems starting to develop as the swell starts to hit…particularly in the afternoons (what a shocker!). It is not enough to worry about at this point but something to keep in mind as you plan your surf sessions for later in the week.

SoCal (and most of the other areas as well) are actually going to get back to back swells this week. The first one is already starting to arrive for many of the Central America regions. Mexico, Baja, and SoCal will have it fill in more on Tuesday/Wednesday. This one should be playful but will definitely lack in size compared to the swell later in the week. I will have more “specific” details for SoCal in normal update in a couple of hours.

Finally one last look at the ultra long-range and it looks like we could actually see another good-sized SW swell heading our way for the first week of April…man I hope that we aren’t using up all of our S-SW swells early in the season…it would be nice to have a few of these roll through when the water is warm enough to trunk it.

If you need wave heights and arrival times make sure to read my previous posts

Post #1 - SW Swell Alert: More SW swell heading to California, Baja, Mainland Mexico, and Central America

Post #2 - SW Swell Alert: UPDATE – Still looking good...lots of SW swell on the way

SW Swell Alert: UPDATE – Still looking good...lots of SW swell on the way

I was just going over all of the forecast data and satellite information (so you don’t have too…you slackers!).

Anyway it is still looking good…no real adjustments to make to the forecast at this point. It is still looking very sizeable for Mainland Mexico and Northern Central America…and Baja and SoCal will be going overhead as it peaks in those regions as well.

Check out the first Swell Alert for details on swell arrival times and sizes for each region.

Post #1 - SW Swell Alert: More SW swell heading to California, Baja, Mainland Mexico, and Central America

SW Swell Alert: More SW swell heading to California, Baja, Mainland Mexico, and Central America

The straight dope
There is another large S-SW swell pushing out of the South Pacific and it will be arriving along Californian, Mexican, and Central American surf spots next week.

We have about 7-8 days before the swell hits so you still have time to schedule vacation, by a plane ticket, kiss the wife/kids/dog goodbye, and go and score some surf in warm water.

If you are locked into work, family, or lack of funds, don’t sweat it too much…there will be plenty of swell moving into Southern California. In fact it will be very similar to that run of S swell that we had hit at the end of February and hold into March…so there is a good chance that you will be able to score at home too.


The Nitty Gritty Details
Maybe it is global warming, maybe it is just a good weather cycle for the south pacific, or maybe we have just hit some sort of cosmic jackpot for storm production…whatever the cause we have gotten a couple of heavy storms pushing through the SPAC already this late-winter/early-spring season, and this latest storm is looking pretty good too.





Anyway this storm is already cranking with 50-60 knots of wind and it has a very good movement track. Basically it is heading right towards Mainland Mexico, with areas of decent fetch spilling over to send surf towards Baja, Central America, and California.

Below are some of the numbers that have already been recorded...



And here is the forecasted wave heights from NOAA’s wavewatchIII. It is hard to tell, because NOAA for some reason has all their colors in relaxing tones, but there is nearly 33-35’ waves in the core of the storm. (You have got to love the government nothing like trying make people feel comfortable and mellow about life threatening conditions...way to go guys!)





Wave heights and Arrival Times
The swell is well positioned to send waves to a lot of areas and it mostly arrives around the same time…but there are a few differences in size and arrival times as you move from region to region. So here they are broken out by area….

Central America: Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama
The SW’er (210-225) moves into the region late on the 25th, builds in more on the 26th and peaks the 26th-27th. At the well exposed breaks look for surf consistently going overhead to several feet overhead. Expect bigger sets at the more northern countries (closer to Mexico)…and expect a little big smaller and less consistent surf along southern Costa Rica, and Panama thanks to shadowing by the Galapagos islands and other factors.

Mainland Mexico
The SW swell (205-220) starts hitting on the 26th and peaks on the 27th. The swell is aimed almost directly at this region so expect some pretty large surf for the more exposed areas. Most spots will see surf in the well-overhead range while standouts will hit the double-overhead+ mark. Deepwater breaks like Puerto Escondido and other areas that can focus this type of swell will have sets topping out close to triple overhead (15’ faces).

Southern Baja, (Baja Sur Mexico)
The SW’er looks very strong in this area as well. Expect the SW swell (200-215) to hit on March 26th and then peak on the 27-28th. Waves at exposed breaks will hold around shoulder-high to overhead most of the time while the standout spots see sets going several feet overhead. This looks good for both Pacific side and Tip of Baja spots…so you get to take your pick. The more protected points along the Pacific side will be a little smaller than the more exposed reefs and beach breaks but still expect plenty of fun surf.

Southern California and Northern Baja
The SW swell (185-210+) arrives late on the 26th (as really loooong period energy) and then builds through the 27th, eventually peaking overnight into the 28th. We can expect surf in the shoulder-head high range for most S-facing spots while the standouts, mostly in Orange County and parts of San Diego, see sets going overhead to a couple of feet overhead as the swell peaks. Cross your fingers and maybe we will get some WNW cross up swell too! (Note: Many of the more southern areas of northern Baja will see more of this swell on the 27th).

Northern and Central California
The S-SW swell finally pushes into NorCal on the 27th before it peaks well into the 28th and overnight into the 29th. This swell will still have plenty of energy as it moves into the region so we can expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range at the summer spots while a few of the Santa Cruz and Central Coast standouts see some head high sets.


Good Luck…I hope I gave you enough time to score some waves (particularly with warm water). Send me some pictures…I love to see people ripping (or just really rad waves).

Make sure to check back I will have more updates as we get closer to the swell arriving.

Random Swell Alert: UPDATE! (part ménage-a-three)

Just wanted to give one last update on this swell. Things are still looking nice and solid for the Mexico and Central America regions.

I did want to slightly revise the Baja Norte and Southern California forecasts for this swell. At this point it looks like the swell has a lot of long-period energy in it so it looks like the peak of the swell will arrive a bit more on the 12th than the 13th.

Wave heights will still be the same but I am not expecting wave heights at the S facing spots to come up fairly fast on Wednesday the 12th, start peaking in the afternoon and then holding into sundown. Thursday will still have plenty of size but the we should be past the peak of the swell and wave heights/consistency and energy will be slowly fading by the end of the day.

Make sure to read the other posts concerning this swell…especially post #1 (it has all the juicy wave heights in it).

Post #1 – Random Swell Alert: S-SW swell for SoCal, Baja, Mainland Mexico, Central America
Post #2 - Random Swell Alert: UPDATE!
Post #3 - Random Swell Alert: UPDATE! (part deux)

Here is one more picture of the swell…this is showing the peak swell periods as this one starts to arrive. You can see that it is mixing with a WNW swell (more combo swell fun!). This image is forecast for late night on the 11th so expect the swell to be coming up on the 12th.

Random Swell Alert: UPDATE (part deux)

Things are still looking good for that S-SW swell for next week. It is still on track to send some large surf to Central America/Mainland Mexico and some decent, fun-sized waves to Baja and Southern California.

If you bought tickets to the warm Central American waters you are going to get some great waves (and my eternal jealousy you lucky dogs).

Make sure to read the other posts concerning this swell…especially post #1 (it has all the juicy wave heights in it).

Post #1 – Random Swell Alert: S-SW swell for SoCal, Baja, Mainland Mexico, Central America
Post #2 - Random Swell Alert: UPDATE!

Extra-Geeky Information (if thinking makes you brain hurt skip this section)

Now that the swell is a few days from arriving in the various regions it is starting to show nicely on many of the swell models. Here is a great shot of the swell showing on the Navy’s WaveWatchIII model…




What is nice about this image is that it is showing increase wave heights in the lower latitudes of the South Pacific…and that those wave heights match up with the swell movement/tracking of this S-SW swell.

Generally when you see increase wave heights on a swell model like this you are actually seeing “increased sea-state” which is all the waves and nastiness that is taking place underneath a storm. When that storm moves away or dissipates you see the significant wave heights of that particular area drop…but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it didn’t create swell…lots of really good swells (from a surf generating perspective) are not very tall, particularly when they are in deep water. It is very possible to have a swell that is only 3-4’ high in deep water with 18- to 20-second swell periods, which means that it will likely generate 6-10’ of surf when it finally hits the beach.

Generally 3-4’ of swell height will barely register in a swell model like this. (This is mostly because these models are built with boating in mind and a 3-4’ swell doesn’t mean much to a ship in open water). Most times these swells will get lost in the normal “noise” of the ocean…things like trade-winds generate bigger wave heights all the time so it is easy to lose track of a smaller swell. So when you get a particularly large swell that has some solid wave heights in it you get a clearer picture of the swell as it moves through the ocean.

The fact that I can see, and attribute, the increased wave heights in an areas with much lighter winds (compared to the area where the swell was produced) to this swell moving through these latitudes is a great sign. It basically means there is enough energy in this swell to push sizeable significant-wave-heights far beyond the “fetch area” and that the swell will still have a lot of energy when it finally starts to generate surf next week.

This got way geekier than I intended…so I will apologize to anyone that just pulled a brain muscle. This is Friday and I should know better…

Friday’s Surf – The combo swell gets more combo

Friday will be another good surf day.

We will have a mix of S-SW swell and new WNW energy. On Thursday the S swell was a bit more dominant and I saw a lot of left-handers pushing through at the local beach breaks. This should shift back to a more even WNW/SW mix on Friday…so we should have a few more rights sneaking through, and a touch more consistency to the surf as well.

Wave heights will be in the waist-shoulder high range for most of SoCal. Standout areas in San Diego, Ventura, the South Bay, and Orange County, will have surf in the shoulder-head high+ range on the lower tides. Expect surf in the Santa Barbara area to be smaller…more in the waist-chest high range for most spots (even smaller the further north you get).

Shape will still be a bit soft in the morning…we still have to try and muscle past a 5.4’ high tide that peaks at 8:30 or so. The tide will bog out a lot of breaks at first but we will see much better shape around lunch as it drops off. (I am soooo sick of these morning tides…seriously I hate you high tide!)

We can expect decent conditions on Friday. Look for light and variable to light offshore winds in the morning along with patchy fog and overcast skies. Expect clearing skies and light N-NW winds around 10-12 knot by the afternoon.

Finding the best surf won’t be that hard…any decent combo break should be fun. Look for the biggest waves through Orange County and San Diego. Other areas will be a little smaller and a little less consistent but should still see plenty of workable waves. Unfortunately Mr. High-Tide has to go around being a jerk all morning…lots of spots will start off swamped out…and those that aren’t will be pretty soft. Personally I am going to shine the morning surf…wait for the tide to drop…and try to paddle out around lunchtime. (and keep my fingers crossed that the winds will stay light)

Here is a great picture of why you won’t find big waves in Santa Barbara tomorrow…please note my very scientific equation that explains the situation.

Thursday’s Surf – Waves with a touch of the Swamp Thing

Thursday will be another surf day…and other day that starts off by getting buried by the morning high tide.

Swellwise we will have the seemingly endless combo swell mix of both WNW and SW energy. Unfortunately these swells will have to try and push surf through a 5.6’ high tide that peaks around 7:30-8am.

Since the tide peak is a little later in the morning than the last couple of days there may be a small surf window right as the sun comes up…literally…and if you want to try and get a few waves before the shape totally bogs out you are going to want to be changing into your suit in the dark and paddling out before you can really see anything.

Once the tide peaks expect surf in the waist-chest high+ range for most spots…but expect a lot of that size to be shorebreak. Standout high-tide combo spots will be bigger…closer to shoulder high+ but shape will be slow at those breaks as well.

As the tide drops through mid-morning expect a lot of improvement. The average exposed breaks will get more consistently into the waist-shoulder high range and the standouts will see head high sets. Expect the biggest and most consistent surf through the best combo spots in San Diego and Orange County.

Winds look better for Thursday…expect light NE winds around 5-8 knots through the morning with some onshore NW texture below 10 knots developing through the afternoon.

Your best bet for surf on Thursday…if you just can’t motivate yourself to become a Dawn Patrol Warrior…is to wait for the tide to drop. I think the winds will hold off a bit longer than they have compared to the last couple of days so we may have less bump on the water as the tide becomes less of an issue. I think beach breaks and the reefs will have the most fun shape but the points will have workable waves (on the lower tide) as well.

Here is a random beach picture from the other night…the surf isn’t great but it was a nice shot…makes me want to have a mai-tai…

Random Swell Alert: UPDATE!

Warning this post is a little geeky…well actually it is really geeky. (But it has a pretty picture so that should make up for it.)

Things are looking good for that S-SW swell that is heading out to a ton of California, Baja, Mainland Mexico, and Central America breaks next week. (Click Here if you haven’t read that post).

The storm got nice an intense over the last couple of days…and we were lucky enough to have the weather satellites get some good passes over the system.

You saw the QUIKSCAT (the name of the satellite) winds showing 50+ knots in the storm core in the other post…but all that wind doesn’t mean much without it generating sizeable seas.

Well today we got a good pass from the Jason-1 satellite, that actually records sea-height…and it is showing 38-40’ seas in this storm…with a good portion of those seas along the side of the system that has been generating that S-SW swell.

Here is a good image from that satellite…



This image is from Stormsurf.com. Mark, who runs the site and is another one of the wavewatch forecasters, has done an amazing job putting together one of the most detail/data oriented forecast sites available. Make sure to check it out when you get a chance…you can find the Jason-1 data here.

What is doubley cool about this picture is that Mark has overlaid the Jason-1 data over the WaveWatchIII (NOAA’s swell model), so you can see if the “forecast” is living up to “reality”. In this case it is, which is nice for us because it means the swell is on the way!

Ok enough geekiness…basically what this comes down to is that the storm is still looking good and the swell that I was forecasting for next week is still on the way. Right now sizes look like what I was calling for in my first post.

Keep checking back I will have more updates on this swell as we get closer.

Random Swell Alert: S-SW swell for SoCal, Baja, Mainland Mexico, Central America

So I wanted to send out a heads up on this swell…maybe give a few of you a chance to plan a trip or two for spring break.

While I was checking out the long-range forecast this morning I noticed a nice little nugget of a storm cruising through the South Pacific. Here is a picture of it…



This storm, which has already started to form, will intensify over the next couple of days and in the process kick out a healthy S-SW swell for the areas of Southern California, Baja Mexico, Mainland Mexico, and the countries of Central America (Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama).

This system isn’t the biggest or the baddest that I have ever seen but it does have some good characteristics, which are its intensity and its movement. From an intensity standpoint it isn’t that strong…but it has some decent wind speeds (45-50 knots).

The movement of the system is what really does a lot of the heavy work. It moves at just the right speed so that the strongest part of the storm, (and the area of fetch that is setting up waves for all of these regions), sits right on top of the swell it has already created…so it basically moves along imparting more and more energy to the swell. We generally call this a “traveling fetch” which helps to artificially extend the length of fetch in the creation of the swell…sort of taking what would be a ok-moderate sized swell and making it a good sized one. It also helps to extend the width of the swell so it can affect such a wide range of regions.

Check out this picture…it sort of illustrates the “width of the swell” that I was talking about.



Anyway on to the good part…the waves

So this swell will hit almost every region within about 30 hours of each other…which is pretty typical of a swell with a SW swell angle.

Central America spots pick it up a touch sooner than other areas and can expect consistent 5-8’ faces at the average breaks…and some 10’ sets at the standout breaks. The swell starts filling in late on March 10th and peaks on March 11th in this region. Note there will be some shadowing by the Galapagos islands so Panama and Southern Costa Rica will be a bit smaller than other regions

Mainland Mexico will have this swell hit mostly on March 11th. Look for more consistent 5-8’ faces with bigger sets at SW facing breaks. Standout deepwater spots like Puerto Escondido will have sets going several feet bigger…probably closer to 10-12’+ on the faces.

Baja Sur the SW’er will move in on the 11th-12th peaking through both days. Looks like many spots will have 4-6’+ surf while standouts see 7-8’ faces. Pacific side spots will be the biggest…particularly the combo breaks thanks to a mix of WNW energy moving down the coast from a North Pacific storm.

Southern California and Baja Norte the swell will be smaller but still fun. The SW swell (185-210) arrives on the 12th but peaks into the 13th. Exposed areas will have shoulder-head high surf while the standout spots see some consistent head high and overhead sets. Forecasts are showing some decent WNW energy hitting our beaches about the same time so it looks like many spots could be bigger and more consistent than my conservative forecast.


If I had my way…and uh an unlimited amount of money (get clicking on those google-ads people!) I would probably be planning a trip to Nicaragua or El Salvador. The swell isn’t so big that it will max out anywhere…in fact a lot of the points could be very fun in both regions…and the winds are traditionally pretty good for both regions this time of year as well…and the water will be nice and warm...and the beer nice and cold. Man I need a vacation...

If any of you try and pull the trigger on this swell make sure to send me a note when you get back and tell me how it is.