Tropical Update – Hurricane Jimena

Just wanted to put up a quick update on Hurricane Jimena...it looks like she is starting to weaken a bit.

Winds are still estimated to be around 110-knots near the core, but it doesn’t look like she is going to strengthen right before moving over land, which is good news for the areas in her forecasted path.

Unfortunately forecast models are still not expecting her to move into the Southern California swell window...lots of weather and waves for Baja Sur...but no surf for us. (at least at this point).

Anyway here are a couple of the latest images of Hurricane Jimena, even though she is weakening I am glad she isn’t making landfall here...







Here is a cool movie from the NOAA/GOES satellite project...it takes a while to load (so I would only mess around with it if you have a high-speed connection).

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeswest/pacific2/movie/latest.mov

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/31/2009

Forecast Overview

Not a super exciting week on tap...we are going to see a mix of short-period NW swell, some minor SW swell, and some weak tropical swell, all of which will hang around for the next few days. Our surf will be on the small/inconsistent side for most areas, with a few more-rideable sets at the standout combo breaks.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
We are going to see a mix of leftover NW energy (290-300), some minor S-SW energy (200-220) from the southern hemisphere, and some weak tropical energy from former tropical storm Kevin. Wave heights at the average spots won’t be very big...mostly knee-waist high and buried by the higher tides at times. The standout NW facing spots, and good combo breaks, will have some rare chest high sets that will be more consistent on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Looks like we are going to see some slight eddy conditions through the morning. Some patchy fog and light/variable to light southerly winds will be on tap for areas from LA down through San Diego. Santa Barbara and Ventura will have more variable onshore texture from the WNW-NW. Look for NW winds 10-14 knots on tap through the afternoon.

Wednesday
Not many changes on tap for Wednesday...our swell mix will continue to be on the weak/mushy side as some steady, but steeply angled NW swell mixes with background SW swell and weak tropical S-SSW swell. We will continue to see knee-waist high waves at the average spots while the standout combo spots see some waist-chest high waves on inconsistent sets. A few of the better NW windswell spots may have some slightly bigger sets. Winds/Weather: The slight eddy conditions continue...not bad, but enough to keep the morning from being completely clean. Look for variable onshore texture for most spots in the morning and then building NW-WNW winds 10-14 knots for the afternoon.

Thursday
The mix of NW short/medium swell, weak SW swell, and fading tropical swell, continues to send in a few small waves. The knee-waist high waves continue at most of the average exposed breaks. Standouts, mostly through San Diego and Ventura, see some chest high sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Looks cleaner in the morning...mostly light and variable through the dawn patrol. Look for building onshore WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Well after the “teaser” WNW swell that we had fill in over the weekend it looks like the NPAC is slipping back into a more summertime pattern. There is still a touch of activity up in the higher-latitudes but none of the storms are forecast to slip low enough that they can get into our swell window. Looks like we might see some very weak NW pulses arriving on Sept 6th and another on the 8-9th...both of these swells look like they will mix in with increasing local windswell, so it will be hard to separate out sizes. Likely we are going to see waist-chest high surf at the average NW facing spots, and some slightly more consistent chest high+ waves at the top spots as these swells mix together.

South Pacific
Not much happening in the South Pacific over the last few days. High-pressure has been blocking most of our swell-window while storm activity has been gathering strength over New Zealand. At this point not much has pushed out into open ocean...so there hasn’t been much swell generated...at least nothing significant. Basically we can expect some minor S-SW pulses over the next few days...but nothing that will really break through the waist high+ mark in most areas. Further out there is a new mid-latitude storm that has set up a fun-sized S-SW swell (190-210) for around the 8-9th. This one looks good for waist-chest high surf for the better exposed spots...and maybe a few chest high+ sets at the standouts. Even further out there is still a solid knot of storm activity around NZ that could pop loose in the next few days. The charts aren’t really stoking me out at this point but it does bear watching...I will let you know if anything pulls together.



Northeast Pacific Tropics
Over the weekend we had 2 new tropical storms form up. Tropical Storm Kevin, who was located sort of S-SSW of Socal...and TS Jimena who formed up just off the Central Coast of Mainland Mexico.



As of today Kevin has been downgraded to a tropical depression and is heading towards being a remnant low-pressure...before he goes I am expecting a touch of S-SSW tropical swell from him. That energy is filling in today and will hold small knee-waist high+ waves at the well-exposed spots through Wednesday before fading completely away.

Jimena on the other hand is now a very strong Hurricane (estimated CAT 4 as of today) and she is grinding her way to southern Baja. Unfortunately she hasn’t been able to crack into the SoCal swell window...just skirted the wrong side of the swell shadow...and it looks like she is going to recurve back into Southern Baja without ever setting up waves for Southern California. Baja Sur will get blasted by surf, but the weather is going to turn bad quickly...the National Hurricane Center is issuing Hurricane Warnings for most of Baja Sur which means that there is a high-probability of hurricane winds/weather hitting an area within 24-hours. Check out the latest forecast for Jimena...looks pretty ugly for Baja Sur...cross your fingers that she won’t hit the area super hard...good luck if you are down there.



Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, September 3, 2009

- Adam Wright

Tropcial Update – Tropical Storm Kevin and Hurricane Jimena

Man I leave computer range for a couple of days and the whole tropical region has to get all squirrelly on me…(hmmm maybe I should leave more often…sort of like a human sacrifice). Anyhoo while I was gone we got not one, but two new tropical systems; Tropical Storm Kevin and Hurricane Jimena.



Right now TS Kevin is a relatively weak tropical storm with winds holding around 35 knots and few gusts around 40 knots, which puts him right over tropical depression strength. Since he is inside our swell window, and sort-of organized (showing some convection), I think that we will see some swell from Kevin…t also helps that his storm track is taking him almost directly at us. I am not expecting a lot of surf…just a weak pulse of S-SSW swell (180-190) that arrives on September 1st and sends some minor knee-chest high waves into exposed areas…the swell should linger for a couple of days but unless he gets a lot stronger we aren’t going to a ton of surf from him.



Hurricane Jimena looks a bit more bad-ass. Right now she is about 500-600 miles SE of the Tip of Baja and has already reached Category 2 strength, with core winds around 120-knots and gusts nearing 145-knots. Her current track is taking her WNW around 7-10 knots...and the hurricane models are forecasting her to recurve back into Southern Baja as she intensifies. (The NHC is likely to issue a Hurricane Watch in Southern Baja for Jimena later tonight or tomorrow).



Unfortunately for Southern California Jimena is not in our swell window…and is not forecast to reach it before making landfall.



She will however be a wave-maker for Southern Baja, parts of Northern Mainland Mexico, and even a few of those protected spots in the Gulf of California. Swell from Jimena will be filling in today and should continue to build over the next couple of days as she continues to intensify. Sizewise it is going to be well-overhead as it peaks, and potentially very dangerous (as well as potentially very stormy) since the storm will be moving into the area.

I think it would be quite risky to head into the area to try and get surf from Jimena…I would maybe stick it out for an extra day if I was already down at an exposed spot (unless authorities told me to leave of course), but heading down, and likely arriving as the hurricane does, won’t be the best call. Even if the hurricane doesn’t make landfall right on top of you, there are always heavy rains and flash floods that can be very dangerous.

The track for Jimena isn’t set in stone…cross your fingers that she drifts a bit more west and swings wide in her recurve.