Waves for the Weekend – Small but clean

Both Saturday and Sunday are looking surfable…but expect mostly smaller surf sizes and sort of funky morning tides to keep shape on the slow-soft side.



On Saturday we are going to see a mix of fading S-SSW swell (180-210) and some background NW energy. Look for the average spots to hold around the knee-waist high range…while the standout S facing breaks see slightly larger chest high sets through the lower tides.

Sunday will be slightly bigger as more SW swell (200-220) starts to filter into exposed breaks and we see a tiny increase in WNW-NW energy at the really good combo breaks. The average spots will still see mostly knee-waist high waves with a few chest high sets starting to slip through if your spot has some SW exposure. The standout breaks will continue to hold in the waist-chest high range…with a couple chest-high+ sets sneaking through at times.

Winds look good for both days…light and variable through the mornings…near glassy in most areas. WNW winds around 10-14 knots build in through the afternoons.

Saturday morning winds


Sunday Morning Winds


Overall not a super exciting surf weekend…but rideable if you can get on it during the lower tides. The high tides will pretty much kill it off…so don’t spend a lot of time looking for waves during those times. I would stick to the small wave gear…fishy boards or longboards for most spots. Again don’t plan on a lot of waves coming through…or very much size…but at least it will be sort of rideable in the better exposed areas.

Here are the tides…have a great weekend!

Saturday
04:40AM LDT 3.3 H
06:49AM LDT 3.2 L
01:46PM LDT 5.1 H
10:13PM LDT 0.3 L

Sunday
05:46AM LDT 3.6 H
09:32AM LDT 3.2 L
03:26PM LDT 4.9 H
11:22PM LDT 0.2 L

Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Guillermo

Tropical Storm Guillermo formed today and is already in our swell window.



Currently Guillermo is located about 600 mile WSW of the Tip of Baja and is located almost due South of Southern California. The National Hurricane Center has just barely classified Guillermo as a tropical storm, which means that the core winds are being estimated right at the 34-knot cutoff (any lower and it is classified as a tropical depression).

The forecasts have TS Guillermo strengthen slowly but steadily over the next couple of days…likely peaking in intensity on Friday. Today’s forecast does not have him reaching hurricane strength, but if conditions become more favorable it is a possibility.



From a surf perspective, if Guillermo can strengthen past the low-level tropical storm strength, it looks like we should get some waves from him. Like always, with these tropical systems, you have to weigh the good and the bad against each other.

On the good side…

1. Guillermo is well positioned – He is already in the swell window and any intensification that he can make will benefit swell production.
2. He is a decent sized storm – the effect NE/SE portions of the storm are expected to have TS strength winds across about 150-180 miles. He also has a lot of feeder winds coming up from the equator…all of which helps to extend the effective fetch.
3. He is moving slightly WNW (290-degrees) which isn’t all that bad considering his position.

On the bad side…

1. He is moving fast – forecasts are showing 15-17 knots in the storms movement. This is actually expected to accelerate a bit over the next couple of days.

2. His projected position in a couple of days – because of the fast movement it looks like a lot of his intensification is going to occur while he is further off to the west (closer to Hawaii). The extra distance…plus the shifting swell angle…won’t help extend the life of any swell we see.

On to the actual surf…based on today’s forecast it looks like we are going to see new SSE-S swell (170-180) filling in later on Friday. It won’t be much more than waist-high+ at the better S facing breaks since the storm is still pretty weak…but if we see better movement and intensification there could be some bigger waves as we head into Saturday.

I will keep you posted if I see any significant changes.