Swell Update - That new S-SSW swell smell....

Lots of new energy hitting the buoys this afternoon...the S swell is even starting to overpower the NW windswell.

Now all we need is the wind to calm the heck down.

Swell Update - Well hello there West Swell!

Here is the harvest buoy from Saturday afternoon...the new swell is starting to spike up...

Swell Alert/Update – New W-WNW swell starting to fill in

I am working on the forecast update for the weekend but I thought I would throw out a little teaser.

Most spots were coming up this morning but the main part of the new W-WNW swell (270-300) hadn’t really started to arrive. That is starting to change…right now the “outer nearshore buoys” (the ones that are positioned in the more open waters around Point Conception and outside of our nearshore islands) are starting to pop. Check out the Lajollasurf.org Buoy Summary list…there are a lot of blue arrows pointing east (the way the swell is going).



And here is the Harvest Buoy…it is running about 10-feet at a dominant swell-period of 17-seconds. In fact about 80% of the energy showing on the buoy is coming in from the W-WNW with swell periods of 10-12 seconds or longer.



Here is the old school CDIP chart...check out the shift in the scale.



The wind isn’t perfect, but it isn’t blowing that hard either…and it is looking like there is a good chance that it will clean-up or even glass off at spots with a little protection. With the manageable winds, building swell, and ok tides I think that we might be able to have a little Friday-funtime in the right spots.



If you guys are still at work I would seriously consider faking some sort of an emergency, or a bad case of the “number 3’s”…you know…“sorry boss that chipotle burrito is going right through me I think I need to go uh…home…yeah home”. I hope you have your gear in your car.

One more thing…I just want to give a shout out to Joe over at Lajollasurf.org for providing the sweet buoy interface. That thing has been a go-to for me pretty much since the interweb was invented, and it plays a major role in helping me with these forecasts. He has had that thing up and running for over a decade now and lets everyone use it for free…so incredibly cool…anyway thanks Joe! This would be a lot harder without your efforts. ~ Adam (Make sure to check out his site if you haven’t already… http://www.lajollasurf.org/ )

Swell Update – WNW’er starting to show out there

The new WNW swell is starting to come in with some really long-period energy this afternoon...nearly 22-24 seconds...and a decent swell size, depending on where you are, already showing about 2-5-feet of deepwater energy with the larger sizes closer to Point Conception.

Check out the Harvest Buoy (which will always show the swell bigger and earlier thanks to its position).



And here are a couple of surf-camera screenshots that I grabbed before sundown…





Looks like some fun on tap for tomorrow (and Thursday.)

Swell Update – SSW’er filling in

While most of our Thursday morning surf is still leftover SW swell (190-210 from a swell that started to fill in on Tuesday)...the new SSW’er (180-200) is beginning to show in the background. Check out the Oceanside Buoy.



There are definitely some fun waves out there at the S-facing areas...the points and reefs are starting to get pretty fun looking (though the tide is starting to bog it down.) Beach breaks aren’t bad either...a few walls but still broken up enough to hit a section or two.

Check out the live feed from the US Open when you get a chance...it is nice to get a good (free) view of the beach over the interweb.

http://www.usopenofsurfing.com/LIVE.htm

Anyway that swell will be building throughout the day...look for the peak of the swell to hit Friday and Saturday.

You can also go back and read my forecast for this swell, as well as some notes on where to expect the best shape as it peaks.

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2009/07/swell-alert-solid-ssw-swell-for-end-of.html

Swell Update: S swell is here

I love seeing real energy on the Socal Model...and winds aren't out of control...hope you guys get some today.

Swell Update – Looking at the buoys

I was just going over the buoys (about 2pm on Friday)...and things mostly look like they are on track...but much like I initially thought...I am not super impressed with the numbers that I am seeing on the outer buoys.

Oh there is still going to be swell tomorrow but don’t get your expectations too high for “large” surf.

If you haven’t read the “waves for the weekend” post that I put together last night, go back and check it out.

http://socalforecast.blogspot.com/2009/01/swell-alert-update-waves-for-weekend.html

After looking at the buoys...I almost want to revise the wave heights from that forecast down just a touch...maybe not in overall size but at least in consistency...and I want to push back the arrival of the peak of the swell.

If you are into the geeky forecast stuff here are some of the details that I have been watching...if this stuff makes your head hurt go ahead and skip ahead to the surf stuff below.

Weather-Nerd warning!

This image of the California Buoy (NOAA Buoy #46059) is what is concerning me...as well as a general lack of swell hitting Northern and Central California this afternoon.



You can see that the wave heights are currently running about 10-12’ @ 17 seconds...the swell period was up to about 20-seconds this morning but it has already backed down (which isn’t good).

10-12’ of swell on a buoy that is about 700 miles out is not all that “big”...especially when you are going to see the swell decay quite a bit as it travels. At bare minimum it is going to lose about 50% of its energy...if not more, which doesn’t translate to much on the beach...about 3-4’+ of deeper-water energy...which still has to make it through the Nearshore Islands and survive being refracted all over the place.

Based on what I am seeing today I think the peak of the swell is actually going to be around 15-16 seconds and will be running about half-a-day behind these longer periods.

Surf Stuff starts here!

Basically when you get down to it...we are going to have waves tomorrow...it may not be all that big through the morning but it will get bigger through the afternoon and should hold nicely into Sunday.

I still think that the wave heights will be near what I was calling for in the previous update...but I am expecting some inconsistency on the bigger sets, even at top spots.

I wouldn’t be too picky about the surf on Saturday morning...if you find a fun looking, and relatively uncrowded spot, get out there and get a few...save the hunting around more for Sunday/Monday as the swell is more consistent.

Have a good one gang...hope you get some fun ones.

Swell Alert (Update) - Waves for the weekend

I thought I would give an update on the new WNW swell (275-300+) that we have heading our way...maybe help you plan your weekend a little better.

Like I said earlier this week...this swell is pretty healthy but it isn’t going to be massive. It isn’t going to cure cancer, or cause every man/woman/child that looks at it to burst into flames or anything. It is sort of an average winter swell...it just seems like more since it has been so small on and off over the last couple of months. If you are looking for double-overhead+ surf you are going to need to go North of Point Conception, and even then you are going to need to head to the better exposed spots.


The swell...it burns...look away!

Ok now that I got that out of my system...

It does look like we are going to have some fun this weekend. There will be plenty of waves (of various sizes) at almost all W-NW facing beaches throughout SoCal. We are going to have to deal with some island shadowing and refraction at some spots...but it will be rideable in some form in every region.

Probably the best place to start is with a visual...check out the CDIP sideways forecast.



As you can see the swell really gets going on Saturday and holds into Sunday (Friday looks pretty sad). You can also see that it doesn’t hit all of the areas with the same amount of energy...yeah there are little pockets of lighter blue spread all over...but it isn’t consistent, which is going to be the case on the beach as well.

This map is a little misleading since it groups the wave heights into 3-foot segments...(and there is quite a difference between a 6’ wave a 9’ wave)...so you have to take the model with a grain of salt.

Here is how I see it breaking down by region...

Santa Barbara – It will be chest-shoulder high for most of the exposed spots...getting smaller as you move further away from Ventura. A few of the top spots may have some head high sets sneaking in at times. There will be some shadowing issues as well thanks to an undersea ridge that pulls long-period energy into the beaches closer to Point Conception. (I actually think this area will be more fun on Sunday and into early next week as the swell periods get shorter and the swell gets a little more westerly).

Ventura – Mostly shoulder-head high at the average spots. Top breaks will be more consistently in the shoulder-overhead range with sets going a couple of feet overhead as the swell peaks. Southern Ventura will be more consistently overhead. Again expect smaller sizes as you move closer to Santa Barbara.

LA – Most of the average W-NW facing spots in North LA will be around chest high with some chest-shoulder high sets. Top spots may see some bigger sets. The South Bay will be bigger...lots of waves in the shoulder-head high+ range at the better areas. Top spots will go a couple of feet, maybe a bit bigger at the deepwater spots, on the sets.

Orange County – Average W facing spots chest-shoulder high...maybe shoulder high+ on the bigger sets. Top NW facing spots, mostly through North County, will see shoulder-head high+ surf with sets going 1-2’ overhead at the spots that can focus the swell a bit better.

San Diego – This is the best exposed region...most W facing spots throughout the county will be consistently shoulder high to overhead on sets. The top winter spots, mostly from La Jolla southward, will be consistently overhead with sets going 2-3’+ overhead as the swell peaks...maybe a little less punchy on Sunday.

Northern Baja – sees similar size to San Diego for the exposed areas closer to the border...expect sizes to drop off as you move further south into the more protected areas of the North/Central Coast.


I know that this is quite a bit of detail...probably more than some of you would like “everyone else” to have...but pretty much everyone, their cousin, and their dog already knows about this swell, (if they don’t their friend just called to tell them). It is also going to be nice this weekend weatherwise and a lot of people have MLK day off...so that is just going to make things more crowded. Hopefully you will be able to use the forecast to find a semi-quiet pocket to grab a couple of waves...(at least there are going to be waves for a few days in a row). I know I am going to be checking out the lesser quality spots to see if I can find a little slice of fun.

I will probably post a buoy update and some weather stuff tomorrow...but unless I see some massive chance this will be the forecast for the weekend. Have a good one!

Sat
01:50AM LST 4.6 H
08:57AM LST 1.4 L
02:17PM LST 2.8 H
07:41PM LST 1.6 L

Sun
02:47AM LST 4.7 H
10:36AM LST 1.1 L
04:38PM LST 2.5 H
08:35PM LST 2.2 L

NPAC Swell Update: Buoy 46059 is seeing the bigger WNW swell

I am sure that a lot of you are already watching the buoys waiting for the new WNW swell to arrive.

Well a chunk of the swell is already starting to hit up in Northern/Central California and will likely peak up there tonight and into tomorrow. Check out the current CDIP map for Central California.



My buddy, who is up in that area sent me a text that the swell, and I quote, “It is looking gnarly, lots of raw swell. Double overhead already and likely 15-18’ faces by sundown”…fricken sweet.

It won’t be that big in SoCal but we can expect consistent shoulder-head high surf for the average WNW facing spots. Top NW spots in San Diego, Northern Baja, as well as parts of Ventura, will have overhead surf with sets going 2-3’ overhead at times.

Check out the latest observations from the California Buoy (Buoy #46059). You can see that the peak of the swell pushed through closer to late afternoon…so SoCal should see the peak of the swell around Sunday afternoon/Monday Morning (at least these will be the surfable times…the swell really peaks overnight).

Here is the wave heights timeline…you can see that the buoy has been running about the same size for both of the NW swells that are currently showing…but…



…the swell period is quite different. The first swell, the smaller of the two, peaked around 16-17 seconds. The second swell is peaking at almost 20-seconds, which means it has a LOT more energy.


who does number 2 work for?

Anyway I just wanted to post a quick update. If you are looking for larger surf…make sure to check spots that have good exposure to the NW (290-300) and can focus the longer-period energy. Spots that need a more westerly swell angle (Like Santa Barbara, North LA, and OC) will have waves too but they will be smaller…so if you want big waves you might have to drive around a little.

Buoys creeping up – more W swell for this evening

The race is on…the “outer” nearshore buoys are starting to see the new W swell, and a little bit of it is trickling in to our beaches as the tide drops.

Hopefully we will have the swell continue to build in fast enough that we can get a few waves before the winds and rain start to fill in as well.

Check out the harvest buoy…



It is nice to see the jump in the W swell…try and get some in a few hours if you can.

Swell Update: California's Outer Buoys on the rise

I am starting to see the first signs of the new WNW swell (280-300) hitting the buoys this afternoon...so things are lining up nicely for a bump in wave heights as we head into the weekend.

I have been watching the NOAA Buoy #46059, AKA the California Buoy, and it has made a pretty good jump since this morning. Currently it is running about 16.5-feet at about 14-15 seconds.

The California Buoy is a very good indicator for watching incoming WNW-NW swells. It sits about 600 miles WNW of Southern California giving us about a day's lead time on approaching surf. An average 15-17 second period swell travels about 600 miles in a day (give or take...the slower the swell period the slower the waves are going.)



Generally OC and SD will lag a little further behind in swell arrival time since they are buried a little deeper in the SoCal Bight (a little further east than SB, Ventura, and LA)...so if the swell is set to arrive late in the afternoon, like this one we have arriving this weekend, OC and SD won't see much of an increase in surf size until after dark...with the biggest "rideable" size arriving the next morning even if the swell is actually peaking overnight.

For this swell, if you are checking the Buoy Summary on LaJollaSurf.org (http://www.lajollasurf.org/buoylist.html ), you can see the #46059 buoy jump out pretty quickly...this is especially gratifying if you happen to be a surf forecaster waiting for a swell that you forecasted.



Hmm where is that swell?

This buoy summary is a great tool for getting the buoy's "big picture" relatively quickly by allowing you to see most of the Pacific buoys in one place. But it is important to note that this data is generally showing near current conditions...so you need to establish a timeline when you see the buoys start to pop. (This buoy could have been showing increased sea heights for 12+ hours which means that the swell could be halfway here already not just a day out).

From this summary I usually drill down into the buoy data itself. (I have a whole post on buoy data interpretation...click here if you want to check it out)

All of the buoys show at a minimum 24 hours worth of older data...some of the NOAA buoys go back 5-days.

Just looking at wave heights for the California Buoy helps me to establish my timeline. Check it out.




If it was a smaller swell I might dive deeper and check out swell periods but this swell is pretty noticeable on this chart. So to set my timeline I would say that this swell really started to show on this buoy around 12-zulu on Thursday. (Zulu time is Greenwhich time, which is also called UTC or GMT on some charts. Depending on if we are in daylight savings we are either 7-hours or 8-hours behind Zulu time...right now it is 8-hours).

So this buoy started to see the new WNW swell around 4am PST this morning but didn't start to peak until about 1-2pm PST.

If this were a 17-second period swell I would expect to see building waves at the exposed beaches starting tomorrow morning and then the peak in the afternoon. Since the peak of the swell is actually closer to 13-14 seconds I have to move the peak of the swell back a few hours for SB/Ventura and even further back for Orange County and San Diego.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...snort...ugh, yeah, that is great Adam but what does that mean for the surf?

Basically the swell is in the water, hitting the out buoys, and will be arriving later tomorrow afternoon. I expect Santa Barbara and Ventura to start to see some slowly increasing wave heights starting after lunchtime and increasing as we head toward sundown.

Spots further south down the coast will see wave heights building in after dark.

Eventually the swell will peak overnight but will hold wave heights into Saturday. By then I am expecting most exposed WNW facing spots to have surf in the chest-shoulder high range. Standout WNW facing breaks in Ventura and San Diego will have consistent head high surf. Top breaks, mostly in San Diego, will have some sets going overhead+ on the faces.

Oh and just a random note...if you are looking for consistently larger surf...Northern/Central California are going to get some good sized surf from this swell. Lots of 6-8'+ faces at the average spots and some 10-12'+ sets at the top breaks. It peaks up there on Friday but holds strong into Saturday.

Swell Update - W-WNW swell for later this weekend

Hey gang...thought I would send out an update on the new storms forecast to form over the next couple of days.

I am still not really fired up on their swell potential but they are looking more and more like they will send us a few waves.

What I am seeing is a couple of different low-pressures moving into the lower edge of the Gulf of Alaska and pushing close to the California Coast (close enough to give some rain and wind to Northern/Central California and possibly even to us in SoCal).

The first storm has already started to move into position but won't be much of a swell producer. Check out the quikscat image from this system.





You can see that the majority of the winds (which aren't very strong) are moving North and South with only a few small fetches that actually set up towards us.

Really the most important storm is the second one which is forecast to be more intense and have a much more dominate west-to-east push, both of which mean bigger waves.

Check out the second storm on this sea-level pressure chart...

What does this mean? Well at this point I am expecting some increasing W-WNW swell (270-300 degrees with most of the energy around 285-300) arriving in Santa Barbara/Ventura late on Sunday Nov 2nd and the rest of SoCal overnight into Monday Nov 3rd.

At this point it looks good for surf in the chest-head high range for most WNW exposed spots and the possibility for some head high surf at the standouts in San Diego (and maybe in Ventura/South Bay as well.) Periods look pretty short...right in the 10-12 second range which will sort of make this one feel like a punchy windswell.

There is still quite a bit of storm development to go before this swell is completely "in the water" so keep checking back I will have more updates as it pulls together.