NPAC Swell Update: Buoy 46059 is seeing the bigger WNW swell

I am sure that a lot of you are already watching the buoys waiting for the new WNW swell to arrive.

Well a chunk of the swell is already starting to hit up in Northern/Central California and will likely peak up there tonight and into tomorrow. Check out the current CDIP map for Central California.



My buddy, who is up in that area sent me a text that the swell, and I quote, “It is looking gnarly, lots of raw swell. Double overhead already and likely 15-18’ faces by sundown”…fricken sweet.

It won’t be that big in SoCal but we can expect consistent shoulder-head high surf for the average WNW facing spots. Top NW spots in San Diego, Northern Baja, as well as parts of Ventura, will have overhead surf with sets going 2-3’ overhead at times.

Check out the latest observations from the California Buoy (Buoy #46059). You can see that the peak of the swell pushed through closer to late afternoon…so SoCal should see the peak of the swell around Sunday afternoon/Monday Morning (at least these will be the surfable times…the swell really peaks overnight).

Here is the wave heights timeline…you can see that the buoy has been running about the same size for both of the NW swells that are currently showing…but…



…the swell period is quite different. The first swell, the smaller of the two, peaked around 16-17 seconds. The second swell is peaking at almost 20-seconds, which means it has a LOT more energy.


who does number 2 work for?

Anyway I just wanted to post a quick update. If you are looking for larger surf…make sure to check spots that have good exposure to the NW (290-300) and can focus the longer-period energy. Spots that need a more westerly swell angle (Like Santa Barbara, North LA, and OC) will have waves too but they will be smaller…so if you want big waves you might have to drive around a little.

Random Long Range Forecast: Light at the end of the tunnel

The surf has been sucking the last couple of days but it does look like things are going to improve rather quickly as we move into the upcoming weekend.

The North Pacific Storm track has gotten a bit more active over the last week and it looks like it is just going to get more intense as we head toward the weekend and next week.

Right now we have a couple of low-pressures to the N and NE of Hawaii that are going to be sending us some new, playful sized, WNW swell for the weekend and into next Monday. Check out the QUIKscat



The first WNW swell (280-300) arrives later on Friday, showing mostly in Santa Barbara and Ventura late in the afternoon and arriving more after dark. Look for this swell to peak on Saturday and Sunday with surf in the waist-chest high+ range for many areas and some shoulder-head high sets at the standout breaks in Ventura and San Diego. There will also be a touch of increasing SW swell in the water so hopefully we can have some combo fun at the exposed breaks over the weekend.

Further out the models are showing a pretty decent sized low and cold front developing just off the California Coast. It is a waaaays out on the charts at this point so I am not totally sold on how it will pull together. Based on Today's charts we could see a mix of shoulder-head high+ W-WNW swell arriving on Wednesday the 26th and peaking into Thursday/Friday over the thanksgiving holiday. Like I said it is still a ways from forming but it is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Check back I will have more updates as we get closer.

Yeah for waves!