Swell Alert – Solid SSW swell for the end of the week

We have a solid SSW swell (180-200) heading to Socal later this week. Look for lots of long-period forerunners to start filling in through the day on Thursday and the peak of the swell arriving Friday and Saturday (July 24th and 25th).

There has been a lot of activity down in the Southern Hemisphere over the last couple of weeks. In general it was your standard SPAC winter storm activity...mostly zonal (west to east) flow with a few bursts of stronger action that would cough out some playful S-SW swell in our direction.



Late last week things started to get a little more interesting...we had a large intense area of low-pressure develop along the higher latitudes just as a very warm, very humid, low-pressure dive-bombed from the tropics/sub-tropics over by New Zealand. These two systems mixed over the weekend and we had legit storm, with consistent 40-50 knot winds, develop right in a key area of our swell window. The result is a nice SSW swell (180-200) heading our way for later this week.



Swell Timing and Sizes

Like I said above...the swell will start to arrive on Thursday July 23rd with some very long swell-periods. Current wave models are showing the swell hitting with some decent energy at 20+ seconds. I don’t expect a ton of new surf showing early on Thursday but it will definitely be increasing in both size and consistency throughout the day. I wouldn’t be surprised to see head high+ sets at the standout S facing breaks (particularly the ones that like long-period energy) by sundown.

By Friday, July 24th, the swell will start to peak (with 18- to 19-second swell-periods), and mix with some weak WNW windswell (not really enough to break it up). Average S facing spots can expect consistent shoulder-head high+ surf with bigger sets mixing in. Top S facing spots, in Orange County, North LA, and North San Diego, will be head high and overhead fairly consistently with sets going 2-3’ overhead on inconsistent bigger sets.

Saturday, July 25th, the SSW swell will continue to peak with sizes similar to Friday...so lots of shoulder-overhead surf at the better summer spots and some overhead+ sets at the standout S facing spots.

Eventually the swell winds down on Sunday but plan on it sending plenty of fun surf into early next week. (More swell from the Southern Hemi will overlap and keep us in waves through the end of the month).

A few notes on this swell

I am expecting the points and reefs to be the call on this swell, there isn’t a lot of windswell forecast to be in the water when this hits...so the beach breaks will likely be pretty walled up and see lots of the lovely South-North current (if I wanted a trendmill so badly I would go to the gym). If you can’t surf a point/reef you might be able to find some workable sections off structures (like piers/jetties)...but I wouldn’t head to those areas unless you are out of other options.

Baja

This swell will hit Baja as nicely as it is hitting SoCal...Northern Baja will have very similar sizes and timing to SoCal. Southern Baja will have a little more size, consistency, and will see the swell hit about a day earlier...so it will build in on Wednesday and peak Thursday/Friday/Saturday before backing down.


Ok that is all I have for now...check the daily forecast updates for more details as we get closer to the swell arriving.