Long Range Surf Forecast – 7/31/2009

Hey guys...I am stoked on the response to the poll on the long-range forecast.

I was planning, and the actual implementation of this will certainly evolve as it goes along, to post a long-range forecast every few days...but still post my daily/next-day forecast in the evenings. Hopefully this will give you guys a good look at the long-range information and let you plan your surfing a little further out...but still have the detailed updates that a lot of you like to use.

Here is the 1.0 version of the new long-range forecast...let me know what you think...I want to make this into something that you guys are going to be stoked to use.

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 7/31/2009 – The first of many

Forecast Overview
We can expect mostly leftover/small waves as we move into the first part of the weekend. New SW swell builds in through Sunday and peaks Sunday afternoon into Monday. The weekend swell will fade towards the middle of next week. More S-SW swell on tap for the 7-8th.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Saturday
We continue to see mostly leftover and background energy. Small/fading SW swell (190-220) will mix with some weak local WNW windswell and even the top breaks won’t be able to expect much push behind the sets. The average spots, with some SW exposure, will be in the knee-waist high range. The standout SW facing spots, mostly through South OC and North SD, will have some inconsistent chest high sets. Winds/Weather: Starting off light in the morning but still with enough onshore/eddy flow to set up texture at the open areas, cleaner at spots with some sort of protection from the wind. WNW winds 10-15 knots build in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The day starts on the slow side...but a new SW swell (200-220) starts to move in with some 18-second period energy as we move through the day. Look for mostly knee-waist high+ surf at the average spots and some chest high+ sets at the standouts through the morning. The top breaks will add size as we head into the evening...topping out around chest-shoulder high with a couple of head high sets before sundown. Look for the biggest surf through the well exposed summer spots, and combo breaks, through Orange County, LA County, San Diego (and a few other scattered areas). Winds/Weather: Still a little light onshore bump for many areas in the morning, stick with spots that have some protection. Patchy fog in some areas as well. WNW winds build into the 10-15 knot for the afternoon.

Monday
The new SW swell (200-220) peaks as it mixes with some building local NW windswell. Most SW spots see some waist-chest high waves with some rare bigger sets. Standout SW spots, again in the OC, SD, and LA areas, will have chest-shoulder high surf with head high waves on the peak sets. The swell will be a little inconsistent at times, and still have a few tide issues in the afternoon but should be playful at the well exposed spots. Winds/Weather: Wind models are little funky for Monday but overall it looks mostly light/variable for the morning. A few areas will see some onshore bump but it shouldn’t be too bad. The usual afternoon winds build in out of the WNW (10-15+ knots).

Long-Range

North Pacific
This region is pretty quiet...I would post a chart but it would be the visual equivalent of crickets chirping. There will be some consistent NW winds moving through the outer waters so expect some on and off WNW-NW windswell energy to leak in over the next week or so.

South Pacific
The SPAC has been staying pretty active lately...nothing like the big swell...but with enough energy to kick out a couple of new swells over the next week or so. Look for a chest-shoulder high+ SW swell that moves in on Sunday/Monday (Aug 2-3) and then fades out slowly through the middle of next week. Further Out there is another storm brewing in a good portion of our swell window...check out the chart...



This storm will push out another chest-shoulder high S-SSW swell (180-200) that pushes in on Friday (Aug 7th) and holds through Saturday (Aug 8th) before fading slowly. Extreme long-range charts are showing a lot of tropical/sub-tropical energy mixing with higher latitude storms...which helps to energize and destabilize the storm track. Unfortunately there isn’t enough certainty to the forecast models to make a solid long-range call past the swell that hits on the 7-8th...but with the amount of activity occurring in the storm track I do expect at least 1-2 more playful sized swells before the middle of August.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
TS Lana formed over on the very edge of what is considered the NE tropical region...and then promptly drifted west towards Hawaii. No waves for us from her...



The rest of the NE Pacific tropics are looking fairly mellow...there are a couple of tropical waves (sort of like tropical disturbances that don’t have a lot form to them) but they are getting shut down by upper level sheer. Any changes are likely to occur after the weekend.

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Ok gang...that is the first go at the Long-range forecast for the blog...let me know what you think. - Adam