Based on what I am seeing right now it doesn’t look like it is going to be super-huge...but it will be quite a bit healthier than the small stuff we have limping in right now.
The first portion of the storm has already formed and is generating surf...check it out on the QUIKscat...here is the full Pacific shot...
Here is the storm close-up...(as of Monday)
There are some good wind speeds in the storm but it is not spectacular...to top it off while the winds are laying down some fetch there is still a lot of North/South motion in the storm, which is better for Hawaii than the West Coast (and SoCal in particular).
The real kicker is going to be a secondary front that moves into the bigger low-pressure over the next 36-hours...if it can really pump up wind speeds we could be looking at a bigger swell for the weekend. Lately though I have been unimpressed with the GFS (weather model) accuracy, which is a fancy way of saying that it has been “sucking balls” at estimating surface winds in the mid-latitudes.
Continuing on my buzzkill...I also don’t like that this storm breaks apart and drifts northward as it barely moves past Hawaii...to get a real large swell we need the low to ride it up close to the coast and give it a final kick in the pants before it starts to hit...we aren’t going to see that with this system.
Anyway...enough negative vibes...even with all of its “issues” there is still going to be some decent energy coming out of this storm.
We can expect to see some very long-period energy WNW (275-300 but with most of the energy around 290-300) on Friday (16th)...don’t look for much in the morning but the better exposed spots will start to get some bigger waves by the afternoon/evening.
This new swell will peak at winter spots on the 17-18th. At this point it looks good for chest-shoulder high+ surf for most of the “average” WNW facing spots in areas like Orange County and Santa Barbara. The better WNW spots will be more in the shoulder-head high+ range on sets.
Standout winter regions like those in San Diego and Southern Ventura will see consistent head high and overhead surf...with some sets going overhead+ particularly on the lower tides.
Weather for the weekend looks good at this point...not really Santa Ana conditions anymore but pretty nice with light winds through the first half of Saturday and Sunday.
This is all I really have for right now...I will post some more updates as we get closer and we get more satellite data from this storm.
