Tropical Update – TD-4E is now Hurricane Carlos

TD-4E has strengthened quite a bit since Friday morning. Over the past 36 hours the tropical depression quickly intensified into the named Tropical Storm Carlos…and now, by Saturday afternoon, Carlos has reached CAT-1 hurricane status (sustained winds of at least 65-knots near the core).

Currently Hurricane Carlos is about 700 or so miles SSW of the tip of Baja (1300-1400 miles from SoCal), moving west (270) at about 10 knots.







Carlos is already in the Southern California swell window and is likely producing some tropical swell for us that would arrive early next week…likely filling in some energy later on Monday but showing the strongest on Tuesday-Thursday of next week (if Carlos lives up to forecasts).

It is a little early for sizes since Carlos just got up to speed…and swell production is going to greatly depend on how long he lasts (and how he moves)…but at this point we can expect some increased tropical energy helping to fill in some of the gaps in the Southern Hemi swells that we have showing over the next week.

More details as Carlos continues to develop.

Waves for the Weekend – Fading but fun

We are going to have some surf this weekend...nothing special...but the water is warming up, there is some swell in the water, and the weather should be nice...which in my mind makes it a surf weekend.

Swellwise we will have some fading S-SW swell (180-210), dropping SE swell, and increasing NW windswell. Check out the sideways forecast...you can see the S-SW swell dropping out and more NW windswell coming in by Sunday/Monday.



Wave heights on Saturday will continue to hold around waist-chest high at the average spots. The standout S-SW facing spots, and the best combo breaks (mostly through OC and parts of SD), will be in the chest-shoulder high range. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few bigger sets at the standout S facing spots through the low-tide in the morning.

On Sunday the S facing spots will be smaller...the average spots will be backing down to waist high...the standout spots will back down into the chest high range. The better NW windswell/combo spots will be more consistently in the chest-high+ range.

Winds look decent for the weekend...slightly eddyish again...but manageable through the mornings. Both Saturday and Sunday will have variable to slightly S winds in the 5 knot range. W winds around 10-14 knots will build in through the afternoons.

Saturday Morning Winds



Sunday Morning Winds



Overall I think there will be a few playful waves this weekend. Again nothing super special...just fun, and fairly consistent thanks to the mix of swells. I actually expect the beach breaks to get a bit more workable on Sunday as the S-SW swells back off and the windswell fills in...the combo breaks could be a good call on that low-to-high tide push through midmorning. Tides will be an issue at times this weekend so try and pick spots that can work with the morning low tides.

Here are the tides...have a great weekend!

Saturday
06:28AM LDT 0.1 L
12:58PM LDT 3.9 H
06:14PM LDT 2.3 L
11:50PM LDT 4.5 H

Sunday
06:56AM LDT 0.5 L
01:32PM LDT 4.1 H
07:12PM LDT 2.3 L

Tropical Update - Tropical Depression 04E

We have another new tropical system starting to spin to life in the NE Pacific Tropics. TD-04E strengthened into a Tropical Depression sometime last night...and is threatening to become Tropical Storm Carlos sometime today.

Current forecasts are showing TD-04E potentially becoming a hurricane as it moves off to the west early next week.





As you can see on the chart TD-04E is quite a bit further south than Blanca was (almost 500-600 miles further south). This extra distance and the flatter, faster moving, east-to-west storm track is going to limit swell production...but by how much? It is a bit early to tell at this point. TD-04E is in our swell window so any strengthening or intensification is going to mean some sort of waves for us...likely by early next week.

Anyway just wanted to give you guys a heads up...I’ll keep you posted as things develop.