Monday’s Surf – Was that the eddy I felt creeping in sundown and Sunday?

Monday is looking surfable…but like the post-title says…it looks like a bit on an eddy starting to develop, which means we can’t totally count on clean conditions (but at least the warmer water will start to push back into our region).

The new S-SW swell is showing a little bit of long-period energy on the buoys but I am not seeing as much as I would like at this point…



Oh I don’t think the swell is a bust or anything…just that portions of the storm got over estimated by the computer model (and yours truly) and the long-period energy will end up being a little smaller and less consistent.

So for Monday, we are going to have a mix of new SSW-SW swell (190-210), some steady, but smaller, S-SW swells from a couple of weaker storms, and some local NW windswell.

Average breaks are going to be in the knee-waist high range with a few chest high sets sneaking into the average spots that have a little better southerly exposure. The standout S-SW facing spots, and the best combo breaks, will have chest-shoulder high surf with some head high waves mixing in through the morning. Look for the top SSW-SW spots to see more consistent overhead sets to push in through the lower tides in the afternoon.

Winds look OK for the morning, the eddy will be back…so overcast skies and cooler beach temps won’t be all that fun…but the winds to do manageable Most spots will have variable/onshore flow…with winds in the 3-5 knot range. The standout, most protected spots, will see light/variable to light/offshore winds through the morning with the cleanest conditions showing at the spots with some better southerly protecting.







I think that the morning, through almost midmorning ,will be the best call in terms of cleanest conditions, unfortunately the new swell won’t have filled in all that much, but it won’t be flat thanks to plenty of other energy still hanging around from earlier in the weekend. I would try and stick to spots that have some SW exposure, and some protection from the winds…and maybe even think about bringing a board or two that can handle the drained out morning surf…and then the building SW swell and tide that come up in the afternoon.

07/19/2010 Monday
05:14AM LDT 3.0 H
09:53AM LDT 2.0 L
04:47PM LDT 5.4 H

S swells for the Weekend – quick update

It still looks like those overlapping S swells (180-200) will peak over this upcoming weekend.

Exposed spots...mostly in Orange County and San Diego...will have consistent surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head high sets. The standout S facing spots, mostly just in the OC, will have some inconsistent overhead sets.

This isn’t going to be a super huge swell...but considering the winter we just slogged through it is nice to get some new swell heading our direction. Check out the CDIP for the next couple of days (sideways forecasts!)



It isn’t super descriptive thanks to the CDIPer’s having the scale dialed out to 3’ wave ranges...but you get the general feel of how the swell is going to hit over the weekend.

It is important (and you can tell by my excellent madden-style photoshopping) to note that there is going to be some shadowing for LA county from Catalina and San Clemente islands (and the whole cortez banks area as well). It doesn’t mean that it is going to get totally shut out but it will be about 40-50% smaller than the other areas. Stupid islands.

The wind forecast right now isn’t looking great...but fortunately the wind models have been totally jacked up on certain levels...so I expect to see some of the harsher parts of the wind model mellow out over the next few forecast runs. Really we should be expecting some onshore texture for almost all areas...lightest through the mornings (and cleanest on Saturday)...afternoons are going to be pretty hacked up so try and surf early.

I will have another “waves for the weekend” update tomorrow but I thought I could help you plan a little by posting this one today.

Surf for Friday – Go away wind!

Friday has potential to be a surf day...but the winds and the high midday tide are going to sort of give us the shaft.

We have some new S swell (180-190) filling in on top of the first small pulse we had limp in over the last couple of days...we are also going to see some steady local NW windswell mix with some background WNW energy helping to cross up some of the better exposed breaks. Check out the CDIP from this afternoon...



Friday’s surf looks like it could be fun if the wind cooperates...the average spots with S facing exposure will be in the waist-chest high range. The standout S facing spots and the good combo breaks will have some chest-shoulder high sets...and a few bigger sets sneaking through before sundown.

Northern LA County will have a few issues picking up the S swell thanks to blockage from nearshore islands...so the Malibu/Dume looks like it will be pretty shadowed...this is going to be an issue all the way through this swell. There will be a few small waves but it will be consistently smaller than the other S-exposed regions. I only mention it because the region is usually associated with Southern Hemi swells...and it isn’t going to get too much from this one.

Winds are what I am the most worried about...right now tomorrow’s conditions look “unstable” which mean they could tip either way...we could get lucky and have light/variable to even light offshore flow early...or the onshore bump will just hold through tonight into the morning. I actually think that it is going to vary spot by spot...sort of a swirly pattern...so we are going to need to keep an eye on the flags/trees/smokestacks/neighbors stupid wind vane and cross our fingers that we get lucky. Check out the COAMPS for tomorrow at about 8am...I am not super confident in this forecast...but it at least gives us some sort of idea of what this computer thinks.



Personally I am going to get up early and start checking the buoys and wind models like the COAMPS...

http://www.weatherflow.com/navair/analysis.html

and see how things are doing before the sun comes up...if it looks halfway decent I will try and get a quick run down to the beach. If you have to drive a ways for waves I might wait till there is enough light to see conditions on the surf cams. S facing spots are going to be the best tomorrow...but you might want to stick with breaks that have some protection from the wind.

Here are the tides...

Sunrise: 6:40am (civil twilight)
05:29AM LDT -0.1 L
11:22AM LDT 4.1 H
05:11PM LDT 0.8 L
11:21PM LDT 5.2 H

Surf on Thursday – Building S swell and touch of WNW

Thursday is looking pretty surfable...it won’t be super consistent but we can expect a bit more size that we have seen over the last couple of days (though Wednesday was fun in a few spots).

We are going to see a building S-SSW swell (180-200) which is actually the precursor to a larger swell that arrives later Friday and peaks Saturday and Sunday. This first little shot of swell is filling in right now and will get a bit more pronounced by Thursday...I actually expect a little more size by Thursday afternoon. We will also have a mix of WNW swell (290-300) holding in the background that could even cross up a few of the reeeeeaaaally exposed combo breaks.


It is nice to see a return of the longer swell-periods...

Tomorrow we can expect surf in the waist-chest high range for most spots that are exposed to at least one of the swells in the water. The better exposed S facing spots or the top NW facing spots can expect chest-shoulder high surf...a little inconsistent on the bigger sets but still fun on the lower tides. The standout breaks, mostly through Orange County and parts of San Diego, will have more consistent chest-shoulder high sets with a few head high waves starting to sneak in by the end of the day.

Weather and winds look a little funky...the morning shouldn’t be too bad...mostly variable winds below 5 knots. Not totally clean but not completely blown out either. Looks like that set up collapses fairly quickly and we see onshore winds build fast by midday and continue to increase into the NW 10-15+ knot range by the afternoon. Funky clouds, and a scattered shower here and there, continue to hold through the area as well.

I think that the S facing spots and the combo breaks are going to be the best call tomorrow...but only if you can get to them early or they have a lot of wind protection (if you are going to surf in the afternoon). Sets are still going to be a bit inconsistent at times, even slower as the tide drains out, but if you are patient there should be a few fun ones. I definitely wouldn’t take the day off or anything but you might want to plan to come into work a little later than normal to take advantage of the lower AM tide.

Here are the tides...

04:45AM LDT -0.1 L
10:39AM LDT 4.7 H
04:45PM LDT 0.3 L
10:52PM LDT 5.3 H