Surf for Friday – Go away wind!

Friday has potential to be a surf day...but the winds and the high midday tide are going to sort of give us the shaft.

We have some new S swell (180-190) filling in on top of the first small pulse we had limp in over the last couple of days...we are also going to see some steady local NW windswell mix with some background WNW energy helping to cross up some of the better exposed breaks. Check out the CDIP from this afternoon...



Friday’s surf looks like it could be fun if the wind cooperates...the average spots with S facing exposure will be in the waist-chest high range. The standout S facing spots and the good combo breaks will have some chest-shoulder high sets...and a few bigger sets sneaking through before sundown.

Northern LA County will have a few issues picking up the S swell thanks to blockage from nearshore islands...so the Malibu/Dume looks like it will be pretty shadowed...this is going to be an issue all the way through this swell. There will be a few small waves but it will be consistently smaller than the other S-exposed regions. I only mention it because the region is usually associated with Southern Hemi swells...and it isn’t going to get too much from this one.

Winds are what I am the most worried about...right now tomorrow’s conditions look “unstable” which mean they could tip either way...we could get lucky and have light/variable to even light offshore flow early...or the onshore bump will just hold through tonight into the morning. I actually think that it is going to vary spot by spot...sort of a swirly pattern...so we are going to need to keep an eye on the flags/trees/smokestacks/neighbors stupid wind vane and cross our fingers that we get lucky. Check out the COAMPS for tomorrow at about 8am...I am not super confident in this forecast...but it at least gives us some sort of idea of what this computer thinks.



Personally I am going to get up early and start checking the buoys and wind models like the COAMPS...

http://www.weatherflow.com/navair/analysis.html

and see how things are doing before the sun comes up...if it looks halfway decent I will try and get a quick run down to the beach. If you have to drive a ways for waves I might wait till there is enough light to see conditions on the surf cams. S facing spots are going to be the best tomorrow...but you might want to stick with breaks that have some protection from the wind.

Here are the tides...

Sunrise: 6:40am (civil twilight)
05:29AM LDT -0.1 L
11:22AM LDT 4.1 H
05:11PM LDT 0.8 L
11:21PM LDT 5.2 H

Surf for Friday – less work more surfing

Friday is looking pretty surfable.

We have some swell in the water, winds will be light in the morning, and, if things hold together long enough for the tide to drop, we should have some fun zippy shape.

I even got a session in on Thursday...a few little dumpy peaks on the lunchtime low tide. (I even dared my immune system by surfing close to a rivermouth...but now a feel a bit funkier than normal). Anyway it was fun, and sort of racy, and the water was brown and cold, which is what I expected.

On Friday we can expect a mix of WNW energy (275-300) from all over the place...some is from over the dateline, some is from storms just under the Aleutians, and some is from the nice little storm we just had form up off the coast. There is also some SW southern hemi swell in the background that is helping to round out the swell mix.



Surfwise we can expect some building sizes tomorrow...it won’t be huge but it will be bigger than Thursday. Look for the average WNW facing breaks and decent combo spots to see surf in the chest-shoulder high range tomorrow...maybe even a few bigger sets when the swells mix right.

Standout NW facing spots and top combo breaks, which have the most exposure to the swell, will be in the shoulder-head high range fairly consistently on the sets...and then some bigger, potentially head high+ surf, on the lower tides in the afternoon.

Winds and weather look good...mostly light and variable to light offshore for the morning. NW winds around 10-12+ knots for the afternoon.

Size and consistency are going to depend on the spot tomorrow...breaks in San Diego, Ventura, and a few of the really well exposed spots in the other areas, are going to see the most size tomorrow. The winter spots in those regions will be the most consistent but you should have fun at the combo spots as well. Points/Reefs/Beach Breaks should all be working tomorrow but I think the points/reefs will have slightly better shape...the beach breaks may get walled up on the lower tides. The wind may start to get to it a little before lunch so try and weigh the “tide shape” vs the wind bump and see if you can some middle ground.

Here are the tides...

12:09AM LST 2.5 L
06:02AM LST 4.8 H
01:30PM LST -0.3 L
08:00PM LST 3.5 H

On a personal note I want to give a big Congrats to my good friend Scott, who reads the forecasts and just had a baby girl (but since he is flying a Blackhawk in Iraq hasn’t had a chance to see her in person yet). Congratulations Scott! Welcome to fatherhood man!

Thursday’s Surf – Random morning surf report

So since I was trapped on a plane again on Wednesday I missed the forecast…but I did get a lot of text messages from my friends telling me that the surf was finally good on Wednesday (well not “good” but better than the mess we had over the last few days). So I was properly tortured.

Anyway, I was looking at the cams and the beach this morning and it looks like we have some fun, if a bit high-tide swampy, surf out there this morning.

Our swell is a mix of new WNW energy, some background SW swell, and a touch of leftover windswell. We also have a new storm that is holding off the coast about 800 miles that will be slowly leaking in some W-WNW swell throughout the day and should start to peak later tonight and into Friday.

On average the WNW breaks and the good combo spots are seeing chest-shoulder high surf. It is soft thanks to the tide but clean in the SD, OC, and LA areas, and a little funky up around Ventura/SB (the winds are little more side shore lumpy for the few spots I could see around there).

I think that as the tide drops (and if the winds hold together) we should start to see some bigger head high and head high+ sets at the standout NW facing spots by the afternoon.

Here are the tides…I will be back to the normal update schedule by this afternoon

05:14AM LST 4.5 H
12:59PM LST -0.1 L
07:45PM LST 3.3 H