Surf for Thursday – More Surf…and bit of eddy

Thursday will be a surf day…but expect some texture here and there as our always entertaining coastal eddy strengthens a bit.

The S swell (180-190) will be slowly fading on Thursday but WNW windswell and some background NW energy will start to creep up and help to combo up the S swell a little more.



The average exposed spots will continue to be in the waist-chest high range…though the breaks with a little more southerly exposure will have more size and consistency. The standout S facing breaks and the excellent combo spots can expect more chest-head high surf with some inconsistent head+ sets…not as big as Wednesday but with a few sets still lurking out there.

The eddy is forecast to start to increase a bit tomorrow…though the wind models can’t really decide on where and how strong it will actually be by the morning. I am expecting the lightest winds, and the cleanest conditions through the morning dawn patrol. It probably won’t be glassy everywhere…so spots with some wind protection will probably be the best call. Look for W winds around 10-12 knots for most of OC and SD for the afternoon and W-NW winds around 10-15 knots for LA on up through Santa Barbara.



After a little S swell “sampling/field testing” on Wednesday…it feels like this S swell has some decent legs to it so I am expecting it to hold onto plenty of playful energy…it will however be smaller as the period and the overall size back down. Fortunately we have the high tide peak push further back in the day and more WNW-NW swell to cross things up…so the well exposed spots should continue to be pretty fun through the morning. Keep an eye on those winds…it looks like they will come up pretty early in the morning again.

Here are the tides…

04/15/2010 Thursday
04:36AM LDT -0.4 L
10:42AM LDT 3.6 H
03:58PM LDT 1.4 L
10:04PM LDT 5.5 H

Thursday’s Surf – A little bit more swell, but watch the tides

Thursday will be rideable but it will sort of be on the "bubble" of being a surf day.

We are going to have a mix of peaking/holding S swell (170-180), some SW energy (200-220), and some local NW windswell. Unfortunately there isn’t a lot of SW swell in the water…and the S swell, by nature, is a bit more selective on what spots it hits…which is leaving a few gaps in surf out there. Check out the CDIP from this afternoon and you can see what I mean…



….those Dark Blue areas are not good.

On Thursday the S swell will come up a couple of notches and the SW’er will build as well. Most of the average exposed areas will be in the waist-chest high range. Standout S facing areas, mostly through Orange County and a few spots in North LA, will be in the chest-shoulder+ high range on the sets. It will still be a little inconsistent (and the morning negative low tide won’t help us out) so expect some wait between the bigger sets.

Winds look ok for most of SoCal but OC and SD will continue to see some pockets of eddy texture. It won’t be super blown out or anything but there will be some southerly crumble on a few of the more exposed spots. Mostly we can expect variable to slight southerly winds for the morning and some NW winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon. Cleanest conditions will be through LA, particularly Santa Monica down through the South Bay.

I am not expecting a ton of fun out of the surf tomorrow. It will be rideable in the areas with exposure to the swell mix…but the best exposed spots, like those in OC, will have some onshore crumble and extreme low tides that will hamper surf shape. On the plus side…these conditions are notoriously fluky…so I would keep an eye on things through midmorning, we might see things improve as the tide starts to fill in.

Here are the tides…

06:15AM LDT -1.3 L
12:45PM LDT 4.1 H
05:49PM LDT 1.9 L
11:43PM LDT 6.0 H

Monday’s Surf – a slow pickup but still funky

Monday will see a slow increase in wave heights but it still won’t be big enough or consistent enough to really be a surf day.

We are going to have a mix of small S-SSW swell (180-190), some inconsistent SW swell (210-220), and some local NW windswell.



Most spots will be around knee-high+ off the mix of S swell and windswell. The top S facing breaks will see more consistent waist high+ sets…and maybe a rare chest high+ plus wave…on the lower tides. Really though it is going to feel pretty small, mostly gutless, and inconsistent…all of which is going to make for sucky surf.

Winds are going to be sort of blah…there will be some slight eddy circulation early, which means mild onshore flow out of the SW. It will be cleaner through areas that have high cliffs, lots of kelp, or some sort of structure to block the wind. Expect winds to shift to more W-SW flow by midday and then turn more WNW 10-14 knots by the afternoon.



Personally I don’t think that Monday’s surf is looking all that fun…the mix of conditions and swell aren’t really going to click…and there just isn’t enough swell to power through the texture and the higher morning tide. If you have the day off, or just have to surf…I would recommend bringing the small wave gear…longboards will probably be the most fun. Look for the biggest surf through the combo spots of San Diego, but even at those breaks it won’t be worth driving very far.

Here are the tides…

04:58AM LDT 3.6 H
11:10AM LDT 0.8 L
05:50PM LDT 5.1 H

Thursday’s Surf – Peaking S swell with a touch of eddy

Thursday is looking like a surf day...but thanks to eddy winds you might have to hunt around for a truly clean spot.

The S swell (180-210) is filling in nicely this afternoon...plenty of energy showing on the buoys with lots of it in the 20-second period range. Check it out.




The swell will actually peak closer to 15-17 seconds...so there is still some more energy on its way in. We are also going to see some slowly building local windswell but I don’t think it is going to help to break up the S swell all that much.

For Thursday look for the average exposed S-facing breaks to see surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets. Standout S-swell spots, mostly through Orange County, San Diego, and a few parts of North LA, will have more consistent shoulder-head high surf with overhead sets mixing in as well. OC and SD will have some bigger sets on the lower tides...but only at select spots that can really focus the longer-period S swell.

I think winds are going to be an issue...the forecast has some building winds in the outer waters, as well as a couple of weak low-pressure that move through our region over the next couple of days. This set up obviously cooled off the beach temps and spun up the eddy/marine layer on Wednesday...and it is expected to do similar things on Thursday. At this point I think that there will be variable winds in the morning...and a little bit of southerly flow for OC and SD...but if you have a spot with high-cliffs, kelp, or something to block the winds it should be ok.

Here are the winds for the morning...

Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles


Orange County and San Diego


I think the points/reefs are going to be the call tomorrow...the beach breaks are going to pretty walled up unless you have a pier/jetty/huge-ass-sandbar to break up the S-swell lines. Unfortunately that also means there is going to be plenty of current at the exposed spots too...so expect to do some paddling tomorrow in some areas. The tide is also high in the morning (man can’t anything go our way) so you will have to work around that as well.

While winds don’t improve a ton later this week (and weekend) it does look like more windswell will work its way into SoCal...hopefully we will see the beach breaks open up a bit more as it starts to cross things up. Check out the sideways CDIP forecast for the next few days.



Here are the tides...

02:54AM LDT -0.1 L
08:52AM LDT 4.1 H
02:35PM LDT 0.9 L
08:39PM LDT 5.6 H

Surf for Thursday – More windswell with a touch of eddy

Thursday looks like it will have some waves...but it may have a few wind problems as well.

We are going to see a continuing mix of WNW-NW windswell, small SSW swell, and some background medium period WNW energy.

Wave heights are going to be in the waist high range for most spots while the standout spots, mostly in San Diego, see some chest-shoulder high sets. Again most of the size is coming off the windswell so expect sort of soft burgery shape with the higher tides.

Winds will be the biggest question mark...the outer winds are supposed to increase and spin up an eddy close to the coast. Conditions in the morning are going to depend on where the eddy is positioned. The NWS charts are calling for it to be centered North of Catalina which would mean S winds for OC and SD...and sort of SE winds for LA/Ventura/Santa Barbara. The COAMPS is calling for it to be closer to the Mexico/US water-borderline, which would mean more SE-E flow for everyone except Santa Barbara. Check it out...



I think that we are going to have to play conditions a little by ear for tomorrow morning. Ideally I would wait for enough light to check the cams...or look at a live windmap like this one.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=33.626&lon=-117.951&zoom=13

If you have to jet to the beach before the sun is up I would probably try and stick with spots that have protection from the S winds...you will have a better shot at getting clean conditions...and really most of those breaks are more exposed to the local windswell. Plan on your small-surf gear as well...hopefully something that will let you have fun with the higher tide that hits midmorning.

Here are the tides...

03:45AM LDT 0.1 L
09:41AM LDT 4.6 H
03:46PM LDT 0.4 L
09:48PM LDT 5.2 H