Waves for Wednesday – Did someone order the Macho Combo?

Wednesday will be a surf day…with lots of swell…lots and lots of swell.

Yep the big W-WNW swell (270-300) will be coming on fast tomorrow, showing some already solid surf up through Santa Barbara and Ventura through the morning as well as some decent, but still building, energy further south. Check out the CDIP analysis from Tuesday afternoon/evening…



…you can see that there is already some good energy in the water and the buoys are synching up pretty well too.



I expect the peak of this swell to come through Wednesday afternoon, but due to the size, intensity, and duration of the storm…that peak will hold through Thursday and into early Friday before seeing much of a drop off.

Sizewise…well it will be big…how big is still a little questionable. The wave models LOVE this thing, they are practically humping its leg the love it so much. I have noticed a couple of things though that send up some flags. One is that, even though the wave model likes this swell, there is a pretty significant size range throughout Socal…granted that is usually the case thanks to island shadowing and all that…but the way that it breaks down between the regions makes me think that the peak-energy of the swell is a bit more WNW-NW than purely west. That means that the really large surf will be focusing more on those winter standouts rather and a more democratic westerly direction. This isn’t a totally bad thing…if the swell really comes through solid, a little shadowing will help shave off enough energy that it won’t max out every semi-exposed spot.

The other thing that is a little curious is how the JASON-1 altimeter data looks…fortunately Mark at www.stormsurf.com has put together an awesome tool that overlays the JASON-1 readings on top of the WavewatchIII swell model. (I know…this is a little weather-nerdy). This is a cool thing since it lets us see if the “actual measured wave heights” are matching up to what wavewatchIII “thinks” they will be. Check it out… (and make sure to visit www.stormsurf.com too when you get a chance).



In this case it looks like wavewatchIII is overcalling the energy… that color-band that has the sea heights in feet lined up next to it, that is the JASON data…everything else is the usual wavewatchIII model that everyone looks at. Looking at this chart…it looks like that wavewatchIII is about 4-5’ higher than JASON’s measurements, right in the area where we would like to see them match. This isn’t a total dealbreaker swellwise…it could just mean that the satellite passed through before the swell did…but it is definitely something to keep in mind.

Anyhoo…these are just things that I watch for when a bigger swell is coming through…really at the end of the day once a swell reaches a certain size it is sort of just splitting hairs for most people…double-overhead or triple overhead…both of them are out of the fun-zone.

So back to the actual forecast…here is the CDIP for tomorrow morning.



I am expecting the average W facing breaks to be consistently in the shoulder-overhead range with sets going a couple of feet+ overhead at times…probably a bigger bomb sneaking through the more exposed areas as well. T

The better WNW facing spots, particularly those in the more exposed areas of Ventura, South LA, and South San Diego, will be running consistently overhead to a few feet overhead with some bigger waves mixing in at times. Top WNW-NW facing breaks in those areas will have surf running overhead+ to well overhead fairly consistently with some consistent double-overhead, and possibly bigger, sets mixing in by the afternoon as the tide drops and the swell fills in.

Winds look ok…though the weather will be sort of marginal as some rain moves in from the NW. Look for light/variable to light offshore flow early in the morning and then a gradual onshore shift through lunchtime. The afternoon does not look as clean as the last couple of days…expect W-WNW winds around 10-15 knots holding through sundown…and some scattered showers moving through as well.



Plenty of surf on tap tomorrow…and really it will probably be too much for most of the exposed beach breaks so look for the best shape at the points and reefs that either like big swells, or are protected enough that they won’t get washed out. High tide in the morning will do some funky things as well…so keep that in mind as you pick your spot. I hope you score tomorrow…but please stay safe too.

Make sure to read the regional forecasts for more details on how the swell will affect each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

01/13/2010 Wednesday
01:21AM LST 2.2 L
07:24AM LST 5.8 H
02:50PM LST -0.8 L
09:13PM LST 3.6 H

Thursday’s Surf – Peaking S swell with a touch of eddy

Thursday is looking like a surf day...but thanks to eddy winds you might have to hunt around for a truly clean spot.

The S swell (180-210) is filling in nicely this afternoon...plenty of energy showing on the buoys with lots of it in the 20-second period range. Check it out.




The swell will actually peak closer to 15-17 seconds...so there is still some more energy on its way in. We are also going to see some slowly building local windswell but I don’t think it is going to help to break up the S swell all that much.

For Thursday look for the average exposed S-facing breaks to see surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets. Standout S-swell spots, mostly through Orange County, San Diego, and a few parts of North LA, will have more consistent shoulder-head high surf with overhead sets mixing in as well. OC and SD will have some bigger sets on the lower tides...but only at select spots that can really focus the longer-period S swell.

I think winds are going to be an issue...the forecast has some building winds in the outer waters, as well as a couple of weak low-pressure that move through our region over the next couple of days. This set up obviously cooled off the beach temps and spun up the eddy/marine layer on Wednesday...and it is expected to do similar things on Thursday. At this point I think that there will be variable winds in the morning...and a little bit of southerly flow for OC and SD...but if you have a spot with high-cliffs, kelp, or something to block the winds it should be ok.

Here are the winds for the morning...

Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles


Orange County and San Diego


I think the points/reefs are going to be the call tomorrow...the beach breaks are going to pretty walled up unless you have a pier/jetty/huge-ass-sandbar to break up the S-swell lines. Unfortunately that also means there is going to be plenty of current at the exposed spots too...so expect to do some paddling tomorrow in some areas. The tide is also high in the morning (man can’t anything go our way) so you will have to work around that as well.

While winds don’t improve a ton later this week (and weekend) it does look like more windswell will work its way into SoCal...hopefully we will see the beach breaks open up a bit more as it starts to cross things up. Check out the sideways CDIP forecast for the next few days.



Here are the tides...

02:54AM LDT -0.1 L
08:52AM LDT 4.1 H
02:35PM LDT 0.9 L
08:39PM LDT 5.6 H

Friday's Surf - More SW swell for tomorrow

Friday will be another surf day. Our new SW swell will start to peak and winds/weather continue to look very nice as things stay hot and sunny and winds remain light.

You can already see the new SW swell hitting the buoys...here is a shot of the Dana Point Buoy. Remember to check the live site for the latest data. http://www.lajollasurf.org/buoylist.html




For the surf tomorrow we can expect this mix of SW swell (190-205), both with leftovers from earlier in the week and the new SW'er, to blend with some increasing energy from the WNW. The WNW'er will definitely be a background swell so look for the biggest waves at the SW facing spots...or good combo breaks.

Sizewise look for the average spots to see surf in the chest-high range. The better SW facing breaks in Ventura and LA will have some chest-shoulder high+ sets coming through. Standout SW facing breaks in Orange County and San Diego will see surf in the shoulder-head high range with some overhead sets mixing in at the top spots.

Winds will be mostly light offshore through the morning for all areas...maybe even some spots with moderate offshore texture. It doesn't look like a full blown Santa Ana or anything but it does look clean and a little chilly for the morning. Afternoon winds do eventually try and switch onshore but stay around 10-knots or so.

Again I managed to get a few waves around lunchtime on Thursday and the local beach breaks, that do really well pulling in SW swell, were mostly walled up. There were a couple of semi-makeable corners but mostly I was seeing sets come through with 5-6 guys taking off one right after another (about 20-yards apart) and everyone getting close out on. Occasionally there would be some heroic barrels before getting worked but I didn't see many people come out of them. So with that in mind I really think that the points/reefs are going to be the call tomorrow...beach breaks are going to be wally...and with some lovely current to paddle against as well.

Here are the tides for Friday.

12:46AM 0.3' Low
07:11AM 5.1' High
01:19PM 1.3' Low
07:00PM 4.8' High