Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Agatha

“Our first Catch of the Season”

Well it is official…the first Tropical Storm of the 2010 Hurricane Season has finally formed. Unfortunately it is not going to be a wave maker for a Socal or Baja Sur.

TS Agatha has been a nasty band of thunderstorms hanging just of Central America for the last few days. At first she had little or no organization, but over the last few hours has managed to kick off the circulation that it needs to build and sustain the minimum 35-knot threshold that is required to be called a “tropical storm”.



The current forecast run isn’t very promising…the storm is pretty poorly positioned just off the coast of Guatemala, (basically ON the coast as far as anyone on the Pacific side of Guatemala is concerned), and the hurricane model is showing the storm drift back to the NE, which takes it overland, and weakening without doing much more than drop an insane amount of rain.



With no room to generate swell, tucked up in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with Mainland Mex blocking swell window, and path that takes it overland…all basically equal no surf for us. Still it is nice to see some signs of life in the tropics…hopefully the next one will develop in a better position.

Here is the “official” forecast advisory right from the National Hurricane Center...if you are traveling to Southern Mex or Central America in the next couple of days

2100 UTC SAT MAY 29 2010
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALL OF
GUATEMALA...AND ALL OF EL SALVADOR FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.