Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/01/2010

Forecast Overview

No stupid April’s fools tricks in the forecast today…well other than the ones that the local weather is playing on my wind forecasts. Stupid wind, I hate you. Conditions are going to clean up a bit on Friday...or at least stay cleaner a little longer in the morning. The WNW-NW swell will be backing off while a new S swell moves in. Both swells stabilize and hold into Saturday before fading a bit more on Sunday.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Friday – (Cleaning up combo swell)
The WNW-NW swell mix (280-300) will be on the way out on Friday...and since the swell didn’t produce all that much for the lesser exposed spots…I am not expecting it to hang around very long. There will be an ok S swell (170-200) that will start to peak on Friday...again this will be ok, not great, so we are going to have to cross our fingers that these swells can try and combo into something worthwhile. Sizewise I think that the average spots are going to hold around waist-chest high with some chest high+ sets. The standout combo spots will be more in the waist-shoulder high range on average with some bigger head high+ waves mixing in at the beaches with either really good NW exposure or really, really good S swell exposure. Winds/Weather: The winds shift back to normal as high pressure tries to rebuild over Socal. Look for light and variable winds for most spots in the morning, and some N winds around Santa Barbara and Ventura. Afternoon winds push in out of the NW around 10-15 knots.



Saturday – (Surfy in the morning, but breezy by midday)
We will continue to see a mix of WNW-NW energy, mostly windswell (280-300) and S swell (170-200). Average spots will see waist-chest high surf while the standout NW and S facing breaks (as well as the best combo spots) will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger head high sets mixing in on the low tides. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds for the morning with some onshore flow/texture/lump to the more exposed areas. The winds turn onshore pretty fast and will eventually build to 12-18 knots from the WNW-NW by the afternoon.



Sunday – (Stormy? WTFK anymore…)
Another cold front is forecast to move through late Sunday and on into Monday…but the weather model has definitely been overcalling these things…so at this point we are sort of in wait and see mode. Right now it looks like the mix of local WNW-NW windswell, slowly fading S swell, and some background medium period NW swell (290+), will be on tap for Sunday…holding most spots around the waist-chest high range, and pushing the top spots into the shoulder high+ range. Winds/Weather: Looks like variable onshore winds for the morning…mostly light…but with enough speed to put some texture on it. Look for the WNW-NW winds to build into the 15-20 knot range by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
We have a strong storm in the Gulf of Alaska centered just off the Pacific NW Coast this bad-boy is going to be sending us some new WNW-NW swell (280-300+) over the next few days…peaking mostly Wednesday afternoon and overnight into Thursday morning.



The NPAC still isn’t quite shutting down…but it also isn’t doing anything particularly spectacular. At this point it looks like a new storm up around the Aleutians will set up new NW swell (290-300+) that will arrive around April 4-6. It also looks like another storm could develop next to California around the same time…so we could see another mix of local windswell, longer-period NW swell, and funky weather all arriving early next week…just what we need.

Further out is pretty bland…high-pressure is starting to get all springy and is pushing the storm track further north, which is putting the fading storm action out of the Socal swell window. By the end of next week the forecasts have the NE Pacific high hitting a 1040-mb mark, which in weather nerd speak means that it has almost reached the atmospheric equivalent of concrete. About the only good thing about this is that the high is still close enough to the California coast that it will help to set up some nice weather by the middle/end of next week.

South Pacific
The SPAC has been getting more active lately and the storms seem to be a little more frequent than what we even had a few weeks ago. Right now new long-period S-swell (170-200) is starting to filter into the buoys…but it is mostly getting lost in the noisy WNW-NW swell/windswell. This swell will peak on Friday and into Saturday before slowly dropping off. If conditions were going to be cleaner I would say that this swell would be pretty playful at the exposed spots...but at this point it looks like local windswell and winds will tear a lot of the fun out of the swell. Look for some waist-shoulder high surf at the above average S facing breaks…inconsistent at times…but punchy enough when the sets show. The standout S facing spots, mostly through OC and SD, will have chest-shoulder high surf with a few bigger sets mixing in.



Further out There is another storm just pulling together now that is starting to put together some decent numbers…and if the winds come through right we could see a pretty decent SSW-SW swell (190-215) that will arrive with really long-period energy on April 8 but likely peak on April 9-10…and hang around for a few days after that as well. It looks like it will be good for chest-head high surf at the average SW facing spots and overhead sets at the standout breaks. This storm is much better aimed towards Mainland Mex and Central America…and it roughly hits around the same time...just bigger, with warm water, and cold beer…are you still reading this? Why? Shoo? Go book at ticket…and send me photos so that I can live vicariously through you.

Actually I am going on a little vacation myself…I will have my computer but I will probably unplug a bit…so the Next Long-range forecast MIGHT be posted on Monday, April 5th, 2010…and if it isn’t, just wait longer. :)~

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/