Surf for Thursday – Still a few rideable ones

Thursday will be rideable…and with a lot of spots seeing water-temps in the upper 60’s (if not higher), I think we can call it a “small surf day”. Nothing super exciting, but worth washing the dust off if you have a spare hour or so.

We are going to have a mix of fading NW energy, small SW swell (200-220), some weak tropical energy from Kevin, and some increasing local windswell. Again it seems like a lot going on, but all of the energy is pretty small and won’t amount to a ton of surf on the beach.



Wave heights will be in the knee-waist high range at most of the average spots (both S facing and NW facing). The standout combo breaks will be more consistently around waist high with a few chest high sets sneaking through on the lower morning tides.

Winds look decent as well…mostly light and variable through the morning with maybe a couple of small pockets of texture at the more exposed areas. WNW winds around 10-12 knots (with stronger gusts) will move in through mid-afternoon.



The fishy shapes and the bigger boards will be the best call tomorrow…something with a little extra volume to power through soft shape and the lulls between sets. I would try and get on it early when the tides are a bit better…the closer you can get to sunup the better. Look for the most consistent surf at the combo spots in San Diego, OC, and Southern Ventura...but don’t spend a lot of time driving to those areas, they will only be marginally better than the other combo spots.

Here are the tides…

03:25AM LDT 0.1 L
09:31AM LDT 4.5 H
03:11PM LDT 1.4 L
09:06PM LDT 5.5 H

Waves for Wednesday – a hint of the tropical

Wednesday looks surfable...but again the tides and small swell mix will keep it from being much of a “surf day”.

We are going to see a mix of WNW-NW energy (both weak leftovers from the NPAC and some local NW windswell), some tropical S-SW swell (190-210) from former TS Kevin, and some background SW energy from the Southern Hemisphere. On paper it sounds like a lot going on...but it won’t amount to much on the beach, particularly as the higher tides move in and swamp-thing it.



Average spots, ones that only get some of the swell mix (or are tide-sensitive), will be in the knee-waist high range on Wednesday...maybe a few chest high sneakers on the tide push through the dawn patrol. The standout breaks and excellent combo spots will be more consistently around waist high with more chest high sets, and maybe a rare chest high+ wave showing through the morning. Look for the biggest surf through the combo spots in San Diego and Southern Ventura...but expect a few waves at the combo spots in the other regions as well.

Winds look ok...sort of light and variable to variable-onshore in the morning. Really the wind models are sort of mixed bag on the forecast for tomorrow. The COAMPS is calling for offshore winds (which it has been calling for all week) and the NWS stuff is showing either light/variable to light westerly. Personally I think it is going to be pretty similar to the last couple of days...sort of eddyish, but sort of heavier, thanks to the tropical moisture.

I think we can expect mostly clean conditions in the early morning but with light onshore texture filling in by midmorning. W winds around 10-12 knots will move in through midafternoon but may lay down again in the evening.





Your best bet is to try and find a peak or two at the combo spots through the morning...the tide will be lower, and the winds will be the lightest. I would stick to the small wave gear...longboards and fishy shapes. Don’t spend a ton of time looking for waves tomorrow, but if you live close to the beach, or don’t mind the computer cam check I would burn a few minutes checking it out in the morning.

03:03AM LDT 0.0 L
09:13AM LDT 4.3 H
02:40PM LDT 1.7 L
08:35PM LDT 5.6 H

Tropical Update – Hurricane Jimena

Just wanted to put up a quick update on Hurricane Jimena...it looks like she is starting to weaken a bit.

Winds are still estimated to be around 110-knots near the core, but it doesn’t look like she is going to strengthen right before moving over land, which is good news for the areas in her forecasted path.

Unfortunately forecast models are still not expecting her to move into the Southern California swell window...lots of weather and waves for Baja Sur...but no surf for us. (at least at this point).

Anyway here are a couple of the latest images of Hurricane Jimena, even though she is weakening I am glad she isn’t making landfall here...







Here is a cool movie from the NOAA/GOES satellite project...it takes a while to load (so I would only mess around with it if you have a high-speed connection).

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeswest/pacific2/movie/latest.mov