Surf for Tuesday – Fading SW swell and more wind issues

Tuesday won’t be a surf day...but there may be a couple of OK moments through the early morning.

Tuesday we are going to see a mix of fading SW swell (200-220) and holding WNW-NW windswell.



Most spots will be dropping into the knee-waist high range on Tuesday...maybe a few rare waist high+ sets on the lower morning tides. Top SW facing spots, again mostly in the South OC/North SD areas, will have some more consistent chest high sets, with a few inconsistent bigger waves through the early morning tide push. Overall there will be some waiting around between waves...and then the tide starts to kill it as it gets too high by midmorning.

Winds will still be sort of an issue...we aren’t quite in full-blown eddy mode but there is definitely some of the eddy influence pulling our winds into an onshore groove. This will continue on Tuesday...expect a light start to the morning with sort of variable onshore flow in the 5 knot range. Onshore flow builds to 8-10 knots by midmorning and then tops out WNW 12-15 knots by the afternoon.



It won’t be totally awful tomorrow, but it won’t be all that fun either...below average I guess would be a good term. You might be able to up the fun-factor by sticking to the top spots, brining your small wave gear, and finding something to break up the wind...but at the same time I wouldn’t drive very far for tomorrow's surf (Especially since gas is suddenly $3.00+ a gallon again...well ok not suddenly.)

Here are the tides...

03:40AM LDT -0.4 L
09:59AM LDT 3.8 H
02:52PM LDT 2.2 L
08:52PM LDT 5.8 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/03/2009

Forecast Overview
We will see fading SW swell for the next few days...we won’t go totally flat but expect fairly small surf by the middle of the week. New S-SSW swell fills in on Friday and peaks Saturday.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
SW swell (200-220) fades while NW windswell holds in the background. We can still expect surf to hold around waist high at the average spots while the standouts see some inconsistent chest high sets. The tides continue to hamper shape through midday on...so you might want to stick to the dawn-patrol sessions for the better-looking waves as well as a touch more consistency. Winds/Weather: Starting off light in the morning but still with enough onshore/eddy flow to set up texture at the open areas, cleaner at spots with some sort of protection from the wind. WNW winds 10-15 knots build in through the afternoon.

Wednesday
Midweek will be on the small side...we see leftover SW energy mixing with steady, but steeply angled, NW windswell. The average spots will see small gutless surf in the knee-high+ range. Standouts will be more into the waist-high range with inconsistent chest high sets on the low tides. Continue to look for the biggest (using the term loosely) sizes at the top SW facing breaks and good combo spots. Best shape will be in the morning as we come off the low tide. Winds/Weather: Slightly more eddyish with W-SW winds around 5-knots for the early morning building to 8-10 knots by midmorning. WNW winds build into the 10-15 knot for the afternoon.

Thursday
Thursday will look a lot like Wednesday, but with less SW swell, the same amount of windswell, and a tiny touch of SSE tropical energy. The average spots continue to see knee high mushburgers while the standout SW facing/combo breaks see some waist-high+ mushburgers. Winds/Weather: Stupid eddy circulation continues with W-SW winds around 5-knots for the early morning building to 8-10 knots by midmorning. WNW winds build into the 10-15 knot for the afternoon.

Long-Range

North Pacific
This is still a pretty boring stretch of water...there is a weird subtropical low that may push some moisture over the California coast. Doesn’t mean much for swell but it could spread a few muggy/warm showers into our weather. Likely it will just increase humidity to the “miserable” setting. Thanks for nothing...stupid weather.

South Pacific
A playful, but sort of finicky SW swell peaked on Monday and will be slowly fading out over the next couple of days. later this week another chest-shoulder high S-SSW swell (180-200) moves into our area. The new S-SSW’er pushes in on Friday (Aug 7th) and holds through Saturday (Aug 8th) before fading slowly.



Further Out it looks like a small mix of S and SW swells will help to reinforce the S-SSW swell from Friday and Saturday...these won’t add any more size but they will keep the chest high waves from fading too fast. Look for smaller but rideable waves continuing into the 11-12th before it finally fades out. Extreme long-range What looked good last week has sort of fallen apart on the charts, so at this point there are no significant swells on the horizon. It isn’t totally hopeless though...there is still a bit of interesting storm action showing waaaaaaay out on the charts, nothing to get excited about by any stretch of the imagination, but at least the forecast models aren’t showing a flatlined SPAC.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
We have new activity brewing up in the NE Pacific...TD-07e formed today and the forecast models have it strengthening further overnight, likely becoming Tropical Storm Enrique.





At this point TD-07e isn’t all that large...and the different hurricane models are not showing it getting a whole lot bigger. The Effective fetch may end up being about 80-90 miles across, and that is just the 34-knot Tropical Storm minimum, the faster winds will be much smaller, less that 30-50 miles long and pretty narrow. Needless to say none of those things are good for swell production. I do expect some energy showing from this system (around late Wednesday/Thursday) but not with very much size based on this forecast run.

Monday’s Surf – SW swell with some wind funk

Monday will be rideable but I think that the wind and the higher tides will hamper shape for a lot of the day.

SW swell (200-220) was filling in slowly on Sunday…this will continue to fill in overnight and will peak into Monday morning. NW windswell was also on the way up and will hold into Monday as well. The SW’er is a little on the shadowed/inconsistent side so you need to stick with spots that are exposed to the swell and can pull in a little more of the NW windswell to flesh out the in-between sets.




The SW'er showing on the Oceanside Buoy

Wave heights on Monday will be in the waist-chest high range at most of the average exposed breaks. The standout SW facing breaks, mostly through South OC/North SD and Northern LA, will be more consistently in the chest-shoulder high range with a few inconsistent head high sets.

Winds are sort of looking like funky-chicken in the morning. The onshore flow from Sunday night is forecast to continue for most of SoCal…with the strongest bump pushing through the Santa Barbara/Ventura/North LA areas. OC and San Diego are looking slightly cleaner but the onshore bump will return pretty quickly through midmorning. At this point it looks like variable onshore (sort of SW-W-WNW) winds in the 5-8 knot range for the morning. WNW winds 10-15 knots build in fast by midday and hold through the afternoon. Here is the COAMPS for the early morning…



If you are looking for clean, consistent surf you aren’t really going to find it tomorrow. However, there will be some surfable waves and the water is getting almost ridiculously warm for some of our SoCal spots…(I heard the number 73-degrees being bandied about in the North OC area today). I think your best bet is going to be the early morning dawn patrol…we will be coming off a low tide (that bottoms out around 3am) and the winds will be lighter. It will still be a bit of a gamble, so if you live a ways from the beach you might want to wait until there is enough light for a cam check.

Here are the tides for Monday…

03:13AM LDT -0.3 L
09:39AM LDT 3.7 H
02:20PM LDT 2.4 L
08:20PM LDT 5.7 H