Check out Norbert's latest forecast track (from the NRL forecasts)
You can see that the new forecast run has Norbert moving a little further west into the SoCal swell window before he starts to recurve back into Baja Sur. I wish that he spent a little more time in our window and got a little further west but this is much better than what I was seeing yesterday.
Current forecasts have him topping out around 80-knots with nearly 100-knot gusts with most of his strengthening occurring in the SoCal swell window.
Here is the latest satellite photo...
And this is a satellite shot with a bit wider angle so you can see his relative size (he is actually a pretty good-sized tropical system...estimated 180-220 miles across)
From a surf standpoint it is still a little early to get a great read on what we can expect swellwise...there is still a lot that can happen to poor little Norbert before it can send us some waves. Right now I would expect some new tropical swell, probably around shoulder-head high at the better spots, to arrive late Saturday and peak into Sunday before fading out fast early next week...but like I said this is still a ways from forming.
I will keep you posted as the storm continues churning along...who knows maybe the forecast track will improve a little more tomorrow.
A note on Baja Sur - This storm is a definite wave-maker for Baja Sur...in fact new SE-S swell should be filling into Cabo as I type this. Well-overhead surf will peak more on Wednesday/Thursday for the exposed areas along the tip for the next couple of days and then shift more to the Pacific Side as the storm tracks further west. There is a lot of potential danger from this storm as it nears land later this week...lots of wind and rain and flashfloods as it makes landfall. So if you are planning a trip to get hurricane swell in Baja you definitely want to err on the side of caution and pay close attention to the latest tropical updates from authorities.
