Monday’s Surf – Picking up slightly and with a touch of offshores

Monday still won’t be much of a surf day.

Sure…conditions will be clean through the morning and we will have a touch of new NW swell (290-300 with most of the every above 295-degrees) mixing in with the minor NW and SW leftovers we already have in the water...but the new swell it isn’t very strong to begin with, it is also shadowed by the more northerly swell angle, and to top it off, it has to power through a 6’ high tide right smack in the middle of the morning session. Basically the combo of a weak swell mix and a solid morning high tide is going to shut down much chance of it being a “surf day”.



Wave heights for tomorrow are going to continue to hold around knee high at the average spots with a few rare waist high sets mixing in on the lower tides. The standout NW facing breaks will be a touch bigger, mostly in the knee-waist high range with some rare chest high sets. Unfortunately like I mentioned before the high-tide is going to flatten out all but the most tide resilient breaks…really with this much water even the spots that like a “higher” tide are going to have some issues.

Winds will be good…light to moderate offshore in the morning…sort of classic Fall conditions. Winds will stay light through midday and then turn onshore out of the WNW around 10-14 knots at the more exposed areas.



I think our best bet is to try and wait for the tide to drop…hopefully we will be able to see a few lines start to show as we head towards lunchtime. I wouldn’t waste a lot of time looking for waves in the morning, just too much tide already for most places. Even if you can stall out your session till the tide drops plan on bringing the small wave boards (mostly longboards) and expect to be sitting around most of the time while waiting for rideable sets.

Here are the tides…

01:39AM LST 1.6 L
07:45AM LST 6.1 H (swampthing!)
02:54PM LST -0.5 L
09:05PM LST 4.0 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 10/29/2009

Forecast Overview

Mostly leftovers on tap for the next few days…the weather will be nice, but there won’t be much to ride. Look for small, tide swamped surf over the weekend and slight increase in NW swell (290-300) as we move into early next week. Long-range charts are showing some better activity…but the storms are still several days from forming.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
Wave heights will be on the way down on Friday…the last of our NW windswell mix (290-300) will be dropping off leaving us with some very minor (and inconsistent) SW swell (200-220). Wave heights are going to hold around knee high for the average NW-combo exposed breaks. There may be a few waist high sets sneaking into the “average” spots…but the morning tide is going to shut it almost completely down. The top NW facing spots…mostly through Southern San Diego and Southern Ventura…will be more consistently in the knee-waist high range with some rare chest waves on the biggest sets. Winds/Weather: Of course now that the surf has dropped our weather improves. Friday will be a pretty nice day…sunny skies and light/moderate offshore winds for most spots in the morning. Mostly light WNW-W winds in the 8-10 knot range push onshore through the afternoon.



Saturday
The small surf will continue as we slog through a weak mix of leftover NW windswell and some inconsistent background pulses of SW energy (190-220)…basically just enough juice to keep it from going completely flat (though it will feel completely flat thanks to a 5’ high tide that hits right around 7-8am). Most spots will continue to see knee high surf with some very inconsistent waist high sets. Standout combo spots will be more consistently around knee-waist high…with a couple of rare waist-high+ sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Clean again on Saturday…mostly light and variable to light offshore in the morning and only weak onshore flow building out of the W (5-8 knots) for the afternoon.



Sunday
Ugh…the near flatness continues…do I really have to write this again? Oh ok….it won’t be totally flat but the lovely 6’ high tide in the morning is going to swampthing us for sure…(Slimy! Mud hole! My home this is!). Look for more knee high wavelets from the leftover NW/SW energy (and a slight little increase in inconsistent SW swell). The top spots hold around knee-waist high+ but have issues with the tides…just like everywhere else. Winds/Weather: Clear skies, light winds, clean conditions. Winds will be light/variable through the morning and then turn NW around 10-12 knots during the afternoon.



Monday
We finally start to see an increase in size…unfortunately it is from a NW swell with some pretty steep swell angles (295-300) that managed to push all the way across the North Pacific without much support. Look for the average spots to continue to hold around knee-waist high. Standout NW facing spots will see some better knee-chest high surf, while a few of the spots that really like long-period NW swells see some more consistent waist-chest high+ sets. Winds/Weather: More of the same…mostly light and variable winds through the morning and then building NW winds 10-14 knots by the afternoon.

Long-Range

North Pacific
Thanks to a pretty solid ridge of high-pressure holding sway over most of the NE Pacific we haven’t see much storm activity moving through the good parts of our swell window, which means…ah you guessed it…that we don’t have much swell on tap from this region right now.



Basically the only swell producing storm that managed to pull together was a very intense (but very far away) extra-tropical typhoon over by the Kamchatka Peninsula (go ahead and google it…I can wait). This storm did put together some 50-60+ knot winds as it tore through the waters NE of Japan but it was right on the edge of our swell window and moved north at a semi-oblique angle before it started coming apart just South of the Bering Sea. It did manage to get off a shot of NW swell heading our way but most of the energy is aimed at spots North of Point Conception and the combination of swell decay and shadowing once it finally gets to SoCal isn’t going to help either.



Further Out we don’t have anything set in stone…but I am starting to see some storm action waaay out on the charts. If it pulls together, we would be looking at new WNW-NW swell heading our way for the 6-8th of November.

South Pacific
Still not much happening in this region so the forecast hasn’t changed from earlier this week. Basically high-pressure is blocking the Southern Hemi sweet spot and it isn’t forecast to go anywhere anytime soon, which means that any swell that we get will be sort of around the edges of that blocking-high. There are a couple of storms drifting sort of aimlessly around New Zealand, and over by South America, but neither look particularly good. At this point I am not seeing anything that I would call a “significant” swell…just a couple of weaker background pulses that will push in over the next week or so.



The next, slightly better, S-SSW pulse (190-200) arrives around the 30th….likely in the waist high surf for most spots. Even further out there is a little storm over by New Zealand that will send us an inconsistent waist-chest high SW swell (210-220) for around the 8-9th of November.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
We have a little tropical disturbance down off the coast of Mainland Mexico but it doesn’t look very organized at this point…any development will take a few days…if it happens at all.



Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, November 2nd, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Almost flatness for Friday – weak waves continue

It won’t be a surf day on Friday.

Conditions will be great...and it won’t be completely flat...it will just feel like it for most areas. We are going to have a mix of small leftover NW energy, traces of SW swell (210-220), and some weak leftover tropical noise from the S-SW.



Wave heights are basically going to be in the ankle-knee high range for most spots on Friday. A few of the best NW facing breaks, and the really exposed combo spots, will have some knee-waist high waves...and just maybe, if you are like 4’9” and you wish really really hard, there will be some waist high+ sets on the low-to-high tide push in the morning.

Winds will be decent...mostly light and variable...maybe a touch of texture here and there. Cleanest in the morning with building onshore bump in the afternoon.

There isn’t a best bet tomorrow...so don’t burn a lot of time hunting for something that isn’t there. If you “have” to surf then bring the vintage death log, a positive attitude, and try and get on it early in the morning before the winds and tides get it.

Here are the tides...it will be Lake Pacific on the high tide peaks.

03:47AM LDT 0.2 L
09:51AM LDT 4.7 H
03:44PM LDT 1.2 L
09:38PM LDT 5.3 H

Small Waves for Wednesday – Yep that pretty much sums it up

Wednesday won’t be much of a surf day.

We will continue to see a weak mix of small SW swell (200-220) and minor WNW windswell.



Wave heights are going to be in the ankle-knee high range at most of the average S facing spots. The standout S-SW facing breaks, mostly through South Orange County and North San Diego, will be more consistently in the knee-waist high range.

Winds look ok…mostly light and variable in the morning with just a couple of pockets of texture here and there. WNW winds around 10-12 knots will move through in the afternoon.



With the meager swell in the water there won’t be much surfing going on tomorrow. Sitting and waiting for knee high sets, yes…actual wave riding, no. Conditions will be good and the tide is improving…there just isn’t enough energy in the water. If you have to surf, (and really you should save up your surf-time/hall-pass for next week), but if you have to go out, then bring your big board and a lot of patience…you’ll have more fun.

Here are the tides

03:19AM LDT -1.2 L
09:32AM LDT 4.6 H
02:57PM LDT 1.2 L
08:57PM LDT 6.7 H

Waves for Wednesday – small and clean

Wednesday is going to be a surf day...but the new SSW swell still won’t be here yet...so the sizes will continue to be on the small side.

We are going to have a mix of overlapping SW swells and some local WNW windswell. It will look a lot like Tuesday’s surf...maybe even a touch smaller.



Wave heights, on average, are going to hold around waist high for most spots. The better combo breaks and the well exposed SW facing spots will be around waist-chest high. A few of the best standouts, in areas like South OC and North SD, will have some inconsistent chest high+ sets on the tide push in the morning.



Winds look good...light and variable for the morning (maybe a bit of fog here and there). WNW winds 10-12 knots will push through in the afternoon. Afternoon winds may even be light enough that spots with something to block or knock down the wind, like high cliffs or kelp, will be clean enough to have a decent afternoon session.

While it will be clean and rideable on Wednesday it won’t be worth driving around a lot to look for surf. The waves will be pretty similar all over SoCal (for the most part) and the summer beach craziness is in full swing, which means crowds, blackball, crowds, US Open, bikinis (not really a bad thing), and the other nonsense. Not that I really blame anyone, have you seen how freaking hot it is inland?



Anyway, your best bet will be to find a little peak, or stretch of beach, that is sort of empty and try to get on it early with the low tide, before the madness sets in. Bring your summer small-wave board, and a thin suit/vest...the water is getting pretty nice in a lot of areas. (HB was at least 65-degrees today).

Also the CDIP 3-day forecast is starting to pick up that bigger swell for the end of the week. Check out the sideways forecast...I can hardly wait for my local beach break to turn into one long walled mess. Good times.



Here are the tides...if you live in the IE try not to catch on fire tomorrow.

04:25AM LDT -1.5 L
10:43AM LDT 4.3 H
03:51PM LDT 1.5 L
09:53PM LDT 6.8 H

Surf for Tuesday – I feel the excitement is gone

Tuesday will be semi-rideable on the lower tides but overall it isn’t going to be a surf day.

Really what we are dealing with here is lack of swell...the weather and the winds are ok...we just don’t have waves to go along with it.

Currently we have a small, not very consistent, S-SW swell mix (180-210+220) from a couple of different sources in the SPAC. We also have some small NW windswell leaking in from the outer waters. The swell mix is barely breaking the 1.5-2’ range on the local buoys with most of the energy in the lower periods (which is never a good sign). Check out the CDIP...that is a lot of boring blue.



On Tuesday the average spots can expect surf to run in the knee-waist high range on the bigger sets. The better exposed SW-WNW facing combo spots will have some inconsistent chest high sets. Expect long waits between waves and soft shape as the tide fills in (and we get some afternoon wind bump).

Winds will be ok...light and variable in the morning. Afternoon winds come onshore around 10-12 knots for most areas.

Small wave gear is definitely the way to go on Tuesday...you might be able to get away with a smaller fishy shape at the top spots (on the lower tides and a good sandbar)...but you are going to be generating a lot of your own speed so longboards might be more fun for bigger surfers (like myself). I definitely wouldn’t spend a lot time looking for waves...just hop on the first spot that looks sort of fun...there won’t be much else out there.

Here are the tides...

12:36AM LDT 1.6 L
05:59AM LDT 3.4 H
12:01PM LDT 1.1 L
06:30PM LDT 4.7 H

Waves for Monday – Hot with a side of small surf

The weak swell mix will continue into Monday…but so will the hot beach temps. It won’t really be a good surf day but the weather will probably make you want to get into the water anyways.

We will have a mix of small WNW swell (290-300), some patchy local windswell, and some weak background SW energy.

On average most spots will be in the knee to occasionally waist high range…the standout NW facing spots will be around chest high. All spots will have some issues with the tide…and may even come close to shutting down as it peaks.

Winds will be clean again in the morning with only light/variable to light offshore flow for most areas. The winds turn onshore around 10-12 knots by the afternoon.

I am expecting fairly similar surf to what we had over the weekend…soft, slow, and tide swamped at times. Most regions will have just some minimal energy but the best NW facing spots, mostly in Ventura and San Diego, will have some inconsistent bigger sets sneaking through on the lower tides. I would plan on bringing your smaller wave gear just to avoid the frustration caused by the swampiness.

I saw this dude on the news…I think he walked outside in Fontana without sunscreen.



Here are the tides…

01:06AM LDT 1.7 L
06:39AM LDT 3.9 H
01:13PM LDT 0.5 L
07:30PM LDT 4.3 H

Surf for Friday – Not much out there (yet)

Friday is going to be another small day...basically barely rideable for most spots through the morning.

We will have the weak WNW swell that sort of leaked in on Thursday continue into Friday morning and some other background energy (that might be swell...or it could be a boat going by, or a bird landing somewhere, or a whale farting....you sort of get where I am going with this). Check out the CDIP right now...this is almost as bad as December...well at least it is warm out.



Anyway expect knee high surf for average WNW facing spots for the dawn patrol...and then smaller surf as the high tide peaks around midday. Top NW facing spots in San Diego will have some waist-high+ sets on the lower tides in the morning but for the most part will be pretty weak as well.

Winds look good...light and variable to light offshore for the morning and sort of variable to variable onshore through the afternoon. It should stay clean for most spots throughout the day.

I guess my only suggestion for Friday morning is not to get super trigger happy and try and hunt all over for the weekend swell...it won’t be showing, (It isn’t even showing on the outer buoys yet...though it might by later tonight), and driving all over looking for it is just going to be a lesson in frustration and a waste of gas. Save it for the weekend and early next week.

We may see some of the longer-period energy from the new swell hitting up around Santa Barbara and Ventura around sundown...but I am not expecting much size before dark...just a bit of size pickup compared to the morning. I don’t think it will be worth driving very far to check it but if you are in the area it will be at least keeping an eye on it if the afternoon winds don’t get too bad.

Here are the tides...

Fri
12:59AM LST 4.6 H
07:24AM LST 1.5 L
12:45PM LST 3.6 H
07:00PM LST 1.0 L

Tuesday’s Surf – Small and clean...again

Tuesday will be nice and clean but there still isn’t much swell out there. (Fortunately there is a much better looking shot of swell coming in later this week and this weekend).

Anyway for Tuesday we can expect more, small, overlapping WNW swells and just some very minor SW background energy. Most spots will hold around knee-high+. The standouts in San Diego see some waist-chest high waves on the best sets.

The tide is going to bog us down again through the first part of the day but winds will continue to be pretty good...so there is a chance at some slightly better shape on the afternoon low tides.

Winds will continue to have more Santa Ana flow through the morning...N-NE winds around 10-15+ knots with stronger gusts around the usual passes and canyons. Variable, but light winds move in through the afternoon...generally staying below 10-12 knots for most areas. Check out what the COAMPS is saying about tomorrow morning.



I think your best bet is to wait for the tide to drop after it peaks midmorning (or get up really freaking early for the dawn patrol)...I would probably bring the longboard as well...just not enough juice in the water to power us through the fatter (not with a “ph”) edges of the tide.

Here are the tides...

04:07AM LST 1.4 L
10:01AM LST 6.0 H (stop it already moon!)
05:06PM LST -1.1 L
11:29PM LST 4.5 H

Thursday's Surf - More Swamp Thing

Thursday will be surfable but we are going to have to wait for the morning high tide to drain out...and it is going to be pretty small after it does.

There isn't a ton of swell in the water...we have some leftover WNW energy and some new but not very consistent SSW swell from the Southern Hemisphere.

Average spots will be running around knee-waist high. The top breaks, mostly the good combo spots, will have some chest high+ sets on the lower tides.

Winds look good again tomorrow as well. Mostly light/variable to light-offshore for the morning and then variable onshore for the afternoon with gusts around 10 knots or so.

Shapewise expect small, sort of gutless waves for most areas, probably best for a big board if you are a larger guy or fishy shapes if you are on the smaller side. SD and OC will probably have the most surf...but most areas are looking on the weak side. The beach breaks will probably do the best since they have a tendency to be a bit more rideable on the bigger tide swings if you can find a decent sandbar. I would probably skip the dawn patrol the morning tide is brutal again...it will probably look a lot like this.


Tide-swampy it is!

Here are the tides.

12:42AM LST 1.9 L
06:59AM LST 6.8 H (yikes!)
02:31PM LST -1.4 L
08:55PM LST 3.7 H

Thursday's Surf - Sleep in

Thursday is looking pretty darn small...so don't expect much surfwise...even for the top spots.

We are going to have basically weak leftovers in the water...a touch of background SW swell and a little bit of WNW energy. Most spots will be in the ankle-knee high range while the standouts see some inconsistent gutless knee-waist high sets.

Check out the CDIP map...I think that my highly trained professional assessment sums up our surf the best.



Winds will be good, but really who cares.

Tomorrow is going to be a paddle around day...don't plan on catching much even at the top spots. I would bring the big boards...something to make the most of the weak energy. I definitely wouldn't drive anywhere if you don't have too.

Here are the tides

04:13AM LST 4.5' High
10:07AM LST 2.2' Low
03:24PM LST 4.1' High
10:11PM LST 0.6' Low

Tuesday's Surf - Slow pick up

Tuesday will be a small surf day...it will be rideable but slow and a bit soft overall.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of S-SW swells, (one fading and new one slowly filling in), and some local NW windswell.

Most spots with some exposure to the SW'er will be around knee high with some waist high sets. Spots that will be working off just the NW windswell will be mostly knee high and below.

Standout SW facing breaks and good combo surf spots in San Diego and Orange County will have surf more consistently around waist high...with some sets getting close to chest high on the lower tides.

Winds are looking good...mostly light and variable in the morning with some increasing W flow around midday that tops out close to 10-12 knots later in the afternoon.

Here is a look at the latest CDIP Model...this is showing the "Nowcast" from Monday afternoon. By tomorrow morning there will be a bit more SW swell leaking in to the exposed areas.




While it won't be really all that good it will have more "push" than the weekend, particularly at the standout OC and SD areas. Is it worth $4.49 a gallon to get to those spots? No not really...but if you are close by those will be best bet.

Really it might be nice to get out and start to shake the dust off from this latest flat spell...we have more surf, both from the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics, on tap later this week so look for increasing surf to start arriving by Thursday and building into the weekend.

Wednesday’s Surf – Smaller but with a few fun ones still mixing in

Wednesday will be a playful sized surf day.

We will have fading S swell mixing with background WNW energy and local windswell. Most spots will continue to hold around knee-chest high while a few of the best S facing combo spots see some chest high+ sets sneaking through at times.

Winds are looking good in the morning with mostly light and variable to light offshore flow. Afternoon winds pick up out of the W around 10-12 knots.

Man I am lagging on the forecast today…this is about how fast I was moving today for some reason. Don’t blink you might miss it.



Anyhoo…your best bet for tomorrow will be the summer areas, either breaks that excel at focusing the S swell or a really good combo break that can pull in both swells. Orange County will show the best on the mix of swells but I expect it to be fun in San Diego and the exposed breaks in LA as well. I would probably try and hit it in the morning as well…the wind looks like it will get jump on it pretty early mid-morning.

Wednesday's Surf

Wednesday is looking rideable…but personally I don’t think it looks all that fun.

We will have the leftover WNW and background SW swell (think very background…basically I wouldn’t even mention it if we had any real swell in the water). Wave heights will be around knee high for most spots, while standouts in San Diego see some waist-chest high sets.

We will see a solid high tide build in around 10-11am which will swamp out most spots as well.

About the only thing we have going for us is the wind…which is expected to be offshore in the morning and evening and light/variable through the middle of the day.

I will probably sleep through the dawn patrol…or go walk my horse-dog or something.

Long-range is looking better…more WNW swell is due on Thursday and that will get reinforced by similar sized WNW pulses (and some small SW energy) Friday and into the weekend.