Thursday will be another surf day...again it won't be great...but it will be mostly sunny, and rideable, and the water is mostly warm, and there will be ladies in bikinis on the beach, and the beer afterwards will be nice and cold...man I need a vacation...hurry up and click on some ads so that I can take one :)
Anyway enough daydreaming...we will have a mix of SSW swells and local WNW windswell in the water on Thursday, which will continue to push in knee-waist high+ surf for most of the average spots. Again the top S facing breaks and excellent combo breaks will have surf in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets (maybe even a plus set or two on the low to high tide push).
Winds will be light and variable with some minor texture for the morning. Onshore winds out of the W will pick up around 10-12 knots by the afternoon.
San Diego and Orange County will continue to see the largest and most consistent surf...but it still doesn't look like it will be worth driving to surf either of those areas, definitely not worth jumping counties. Personally I think you should find a playful combo beach break, or a fun little point/reef and bring your summer board...something that will let you pick off a few of the smaller ones but still have fun riding them too. I would try and get on it early as well...before the wind tears it up too much in the afternoon.
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Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Tropical Update - Tropical Depression 09e (likely to become Tropical Storm Hernan)
So we had a new tropical depression (9E) spin up this morning...and so far it is continuing to quickly become more organized. Current NHC forecasts are calling for this depression to become named Tropical Storm Hernan within the next 24 or so hours.
As you can see from the charts this storm is already positioned within the SE portion of the SoCal swell window...though in its current form it isn't much of a wave maker.
TD-9e's current forecast track is showing a WNW movement at about 16 knots which is not that conducive for swell production.
It does look like the storm may take a bit more of a NW-WNW movement angle and slow down just a touch as it intensifies. At this point I am not super impressed with this storm...it is a bit small, moving too fast, and not really intense enough to generate quality surf...about the only thing it does have going for it is that it is already in our swell window...so any improvement it makes will automatically get passed into the swell it kicks out (so no waiting for the storm to actually become unshadowed).
From a surf standpoint, based on today's forecasts, I am expecting a minor...waist-chest high (at best) S-SE swell moving into expose SoCal beaches later on Saturday...and likely peaking on Sunday.
Baja Sur will be better exposed to this swell, particularly on the Pacific Side, and should have waves moving in on Friday and peaking Saturday before fading out...I would plan on waves being in the chest-shoulder high range for the exposed areas down there...with bigger sets as the tropical swell mixes with some southern hemi energy over the weekend.
And finally here is a satellite photo from the NRL...check out the lower level clouds (the darker grey ones)...they are already starting to show the classic "spin" of a tropical system.
As you can see from the charts this storm is already positioned within the SE portion of the SoCal swell window...though in its current form it isn't much of a wave maker.
TD-9e's current forecast track is showing a WNW movement at about 16 knots which is not that conducive for swell production.
It does look like the storm may take a bit more of a NW-WNW movement angle and slow down just a touch as it intensifies. At this point I am not super impressed with this storm...it is a bit small, moving too fast, and not really intense enough to generate quality surf...about the only thing it does have going for it is that it is already in our swell window...so any improvement it makes will automatically get passed into the swell it kicks out (so no waiting for the storm to actually become unshadowed).
From a surf standpoint, based on today's forecasts, I am expecting a minor...waist-chest high (at best) S-SE swell moving into expose SoCal beaches later on Saturday...and likely peaking on Sunday.
Baja Sur will be better exposed to this swell, particularly on the Pacific Side, and should have waves moving in on Friday and peaking Saturday before fading out...I would plan on waves being in the chest-shoulder high range for the exposed areas down there...with bigger sets as the tropical swell mixes with some southern hemi energy over the weekend.
And finally here is a satellite photo from the NRL...check out the lower level clouds (the darker grey ones)...they are already starting to show the classic "spin" of a tropical system.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Waves for Wednesday – Still a few fun ones
Wednesday will be a surf day…nothing super exciting but still rideable and playful at the exposed spots.
We are going to have a mix of SSW swell (190-200) and some local WNW windswell…there won’t be a ton of windswell so look for sort of lined up S lines at most breaks with a few more makeable corners at the combo spots.
On average most spots will be in the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets.
Standout S facing spots and the good combo surf breaks, within the Orange County and San Diego areas, will be in the waist-chest high range fairly consistently with some shoulder high+ sets sneaking through on the lower tides.
Winds are expected to be light again in the morning with only minor onshore texture at the more open beaches. Look for the usual W winds around 10-12 knots by the afternoon.
Like I said I think tomorrow will be a surf day with some inconsistent but fun waves showing at most of the “summer” spots. OC and SD will be the biggest and most consistent but again I don’t think it will warrant driving very far to surf either area unless you just have cash and gas to burn. I think the morning will still have the best shape but try and work around the low tide…or find a spot that likes a little less water.
We are going to have a mix of SSW swell (190-200) and some local WNW windswell…there won’t be a ton of windswell so look for sort of lined up S lines at most breaks with a few more makeable corners at the combo spots.
On average most spots will be in the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets.
Standout S facing spots and the good combo surf breaks, within the Orange County and San Diego areas, will be in the waist-chest high range fairly consistently with some shoulder high+ sets sneaking through on the lower tides.
Winds are expected to be light again in the morning with only minor onshore texture at the more open beaches. Look for the usual W winds around 10-12 knots by the afternoon.
Like I said I think tomorrow will be a surf day with some inconsistent but fun waves showing at most of the “summer” spots. OC and SD will be the biggest and most consistent but again I don’t think it will warrant driving very far to surf either area unless you just have cash and gas to burn. I think the morning will still have the best shape but try and work around the low tide…or find a spot that likes a little less water.
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