Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 6/07/2010

Forecast Overview
Overlapping S-SW swells and June Gloom will be the most dominant features over the next few days…fortunately while we do have some S winds they won’t be super strong until later in the week. (Cross your fingers that the eddy flow will drive in some warmer water). The S-SW swells will back down a touch on Thursday and Friday…but WNW-NW windswell will move in to replace the dropping SPAC swell. More Southern hemi swell will move in again over the weekend (and early next week).

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (more S-SW swell and NW windswell along with some eddy for flavor)
S-SW swell (180-210) will continue to peak on Tuesday…holding in part to a new S-SW pulse that moves in to reinforce the first swell. NW windswell will also continue to hold in the background. Most S-SW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout S-SW facing spots, mostly through South OC and San Diego, will be in the chest-head high range with some occasionally bigger sets mixing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The eddy spins up again on Tuesday and we see full June gloom continue. Look for variable onshore flow, mostly out of the S-SW for OC and SD, and more W-NW for LA and Ventura. Winds should be below 5 knots for the morning but will have enough speed to crumble things up at exposed spots. W-WNW winds 10-14 knots will be on tap for the afternoon.



Wednesday – (June gloom and more So Hemi swell)
More S-SSW swell (180-200) arrives to mix with the S-SW swell (180-210) and the background NW windswell. Most S facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high+ range with some overhead sets showing at the standout S-SW breaks. Winds/Weather: The overcast skies and light S-SW winds will continue for most areas on Wednesday. Look for onshore crumble/texture at the more exposed spots but with winds in the 5-6 knot range. W-WNW winds around 10-14 knots will push in later in the afternoon.



Thursday – (Sloppy)
The S-SW swell (180-210) will start to wind down on Thursday while the NW windswell will start to increase. Most S-SW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range on the sets, while the standout breaks see shoulder-head high+ sets through the morning…and progressively smaller/less consistent surf by the afternoon. The standout NW windswell spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range by the end of the day…with some of the South SD spots hitting head high as the swell begins to peak in the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Thursday looks a bit sloppy thanks to increasing eddy winds along the coast and strong NW winds hitting along the outer waters. Look for S-SW flow around 6-8+ knots for the morning and then W-WNW winds around 12-15+ knots for the afternoon.



Friday – (Cleaning up…well sort of)
Windswell switches more WNW-NW (285-300) and continues to hold onto some lumpy size on Friday while the S-SW swell mix fades to mostly leftover in the background. Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range while the better NW facing spots and excellent combo breaks see some shoulder-head high+ sets. Shape will be a bit mixed up since the windswell is pretty short-period (6-10 seconds) and the Southern Hemi swell stays pretty small. Winds/Weather: The eddy is supposed to blow itself out on Friday…lightening up the morning winds into the 0-5 knot range, but keeping a southerly tint to it. Afternoon winds shift to the W-WNW and stay in the 10-15 knot range for most of the second half of the day.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Still a few storms spinning around in the NPAC but nothing that looks all that exciting for Southern California. There is one system that bears watching over the next few days…this storm tracks across the mid-latitudes fairly rapidly and eventually impacts the central Coast of California around Thursday.



The current forecast has this storm moving too fast to do much swell production before arriving along the west coast…but it does show that it enhances the WNW-NW winds moving down the coast as it arrives…which will be what drives up our local windswell during the second half of the week. The larger windswell waves only really last for Thursday night and into early Friday before fading into this coming weekend. Not much on tap after that…just background local windswell for most of next week.

South Pacific
The current run of S-SW swells will hold for the rest of this week and on into the upcoming weekend…but I am starting to see a bit of a gap in the SPAC storm track that could mean smaller surf as we head past the middle of June…fortunately that gap doesn’t seem very big…long-range charts are showing more stormy action brewing up in the SW portion of our swell window in about 6-7 days.



Look for a mix of closely packed S-SW swells to arrive throughout the week…hitting on the 8-9th…the 11-12th and again on the 13th. None of these look super strong, but since they are all piling on top of one another they will be able to blend some of the energy together, producing more consistent, and sometimes larger sets. Most of this week we can expect chest-shoulder high surf at the average S-SW facing spots and consistent head high sets and occasionally overhead waves at the standout breaks.



Further out…as you can see above there is a noticeable gap (right around 120w-170w in longitude) in the bright red meatballs of SPAC storms. There is still some activity brewing up for Central America and Mainland Mexico (and South America) but there aren’t any storms in the sweet spot for Southern California…fortunately that new red over by New Zealand is going to push over and intensify after it moves out into the wider open ocean…so the wave machine will probably kick back into gear around the end of June…possibly the 19-20th if this lines up properly. Obviously this still a few days from forming...so we will have to wait and see how it breaks loose.

Tropics
No new tropical systems expected for the next couple of days.



the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, June 10th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Friday’s Surf – Rinse and Repeat

Friday is looking rideable but won’t be a great surf day.

We are going to see a mix of SW swell (200-220) with one swell fading and another similar sized swell filling in. NW windswell will be on the rise throughout the day but it looks like the wind is going to come along with it.

Wave heights will hold around knee-waist high at the average spots. The standout SW facing breaks, like those in San Diego and South OC, will have some inconsistent chest and shoulder sets. A few of the better windswell breaks will be around chest-high+ as well but the shape won’t be all that fun.

Winds are looking ok...mostly variable with a touch of onshore texture for the morning. W winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon. A chance at some eddy in the morning...but not super strong.

Overall it is going to be pretty similar to the last couple of days...with a low-drained out tide in the morning and better shape as it fills in around midmorning. As always it will be race with the wind and the tide...to see if shape can improve before the bump gets it.

Here are the tides...

02:20AM LDT 4.7 H
10:11AM LDT -0.3 L
05:16PM LDT 3.7 H
10:23PM LDT 2.4 L

Friday’s Surf – Almost there

Friday will be a semi-surf day…sort of like what we have had the last several days.

Basically small, soft surf for the average spots and some inconsistent chest high sets at the standout breaks. There will be long waits between sets but if you don’t have anywhere to go there are worse ways to spend your time.
Swellwise we are going to have a mix of the small S-SW energy, local windswell, and a touch of new SSW swell that shows up later in the afternoon. Again it won’t be very big…lots of spots will hold around knee high with inconsistent waist high sets.

Standout breaks, mostly in North San Diego and South OC, will have some inconsistent chest high sets…which will start to get a little more consistent late in the day.

Winds will be mostly light, with some slight eddy S-SW texture at the more exposed breaks. Afternoon winds will come onshore around 10-12+15 knots.

Bring your small wave gear (and some patience) and you will likely be able to have a little fun. Don’t spend a lot of time driving…it won’t be worth burning the gas.

Long-range…looks like the flat spell is finally going to break…I am watching the possibility of a better S swell lining up for the first week of September (3-4th). It is still sort of pulling together…check back I will have more updates on Friday.

Tuesday's surf - man I am ready for Fall

Tuesday looks rideable but I don't think it will be that great of a surf day.

The same small mix of S-SW energy and background short period WNW swell will continue to leak in.

Average spots will be around knee-waist high. Standout SW facing breaks and the good combo spots will be around chest high on inconsistent sets.

Shape will be on the soft side, particularly as we hit the high tides, but it will be surfable...and may even have a couple of halfway decent sections on the good sandbars at the low tides. I just wouldn't hold your breath waiting for the big sets.

Winds are forecast to be light and variable through the morning with some increasing W winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoons. There will also be some increasing humidity from Julio down in the Sea of Cortez (Gulf of California or whatever you want to call it). With the extra humidity it will be worth watching the conditions later in the evening, the heavier air and potentially cooler temps inland may let us get some late evening clean-ups over the next couple of days.

Monday’s Surf – More of the same

Monday looks rideable…but overall it won’t be anything exciting.

We will have a mix of small S-SW swell and some weak WNW energy lurking around the background (I am sensing a pattern here).

Most spots will continue to hold around knee-waist high.

Standout SW facing breaks and the excellent combo spots, mostly in San Diego and parts of South Orange County, will have some waist-chest high sets.

Winds will be on the light side once again…mostly light and variable but with a few areas of light S-SW texture as you move into SD and OC counties. W winds around 10-15 knots will be on tap by the afternoon.

It is basically the same combo we saw over the weekend…so like I said nothing amazing, just some inconsistent, small, but sometimes playful waves (if you have the right gear and get on it during the lower tides). Don’t waste gas hunting around for waves…just stick to your local standouts.

Looks like we should start to see an increase in surf later this week (around the 27-30th) again nothing huge but a touch bigger and more consistent than what we are currently seeing.

Thursday's Surf - More of the same...maybe a little more consistent

Thursday will be another surf day...again it won't be great...but it will be mostly sunny, and rideable, and the water is mostly warm, and there will be ladies in bikinis on the beach, and the beer afterwards will be nice and cold...man I need a vacation...hurry up and click on some ads so that I can take one :)

Anyway enough daydreaming...we will have a mix of SSW swells and local WNW windswell in the water on Thursday, which will continue to push in knee-waist high+ surf for most of the average spots. Again the top S facing breaks and excellent combo breaks will have surf in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets (maybe even a plus set or two on the low to high tide push).

Winds will be light and variable with some minor texture for the morning. Onshore winds out of the W will pick up around 10-12 knots by the afternoon.

San Diego and Orange County will continue to see the largest and most consistent surf...but it still doesn't look like it will be worth driving to surf either of those areas, definitely not worth jumping counties. Personally I think you should find a playful combo beach break, or a fun little point/reef and bring your summer board...something that will let you pick off a few of the smaller ones but still have fun riding them too. I would try and get on it early as well...before the wind tears it up too much in the afternoon.

Thursday's Surf - Holding pattern

Thursday will be a (small) surf day.

Look for the surf to be very similar to Wednesday. We will have a mix of inconsistent SW energy, some local NW windswell, and some background S swell.

Most spots will hold around knee-waist high with a few plus sets sneaking through on the tide push.

Standout S-SW facing spots will have some chest-chest high+ sets on average with a few inconsistent bigger sets on the better tides. Shape looks best at the S-SW facing combo breaks that have a better shot at pulling in the mix of swells...Areas like North San Diego, South OC, and parts of the South Bay will see the biggest surf sizes.

Winds and weather will continue to be only "ok" since there is still some leftover sloppiness coming off that upper-level low-pressure. Look for light/variable to light-onshore texture showing for most areas throughout the morning. The really exposed breaks will have some W winds around 3-5 knots while the more protected breaks stay cleaner. Look for NW winds around 10-15 knots to move in through the afternoon.

Again I wouldn't expect much from the surf on Thursday. It will be rideable...but you are going to want to stick with your smaller/softer wave gear like longboards and fishy shapes. Shape will be a mix of small peaks, sort of boggy shoulders, and a bit of crumble to it in some areas. If you can, try and stick with the tide push where we can get the most out of the small swells.