I think the National Weather Service is saying it best this afternoon…
Here is their latest update for tomorrow.
.SYNOPSIS FOR FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... AT 3 PM...A 1032 MB HIGH WAS 800 NM WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO...AND A 982 MB LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. A 998 MB LOW WAS OVER SANTA MONICA BAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEEP TROUGH WITH A COLD UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... WATERSPOUTS MAY ALSO DEVELOP. A LARGE NORTHWEST WIND SWELL WITH MODERATE WINDS WILL CAUSE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE SWELL WILL DECREASE FRIDAY.
If you don’t like reading block letters then I will summarize it…Yeah the crappy weather and generally poor surf will continue on Friday…and just to keep you guessing it looks like we might throw in some extra-terrifying lightening and waterspouts.
Surfwise expect more shoulder-head high+ NW windswell and touch of S swell still hanging on to the buoys. Most spots will have poor shape but there may be a few pockets on the inside, of the most protected spots, that see some slightly more rideable shape.
OC did actually see a brief pause in the winds late in the day on Thursday…so I saw a couple ugly but surfable waves sneak through at a couple of North Orange County breaks…unfortunately it didn’t last long and as I finished my pizza at the Big Belly the winds were already back on it. I guess where I am going with this is…if you are lucky enough to live close to the beach, keep an eye on conditions…these upper level lows are very unstable and we could see some occasional little dead areas form where you might be able to pick something off.
Winds are forecast to be primarly out of the S for SD and OC…so I would probably say those areas are your best bet if you absolutely need to surf tomorrow. You may find a slightly better looking wave at spots that are protected from the S winds…and can pull together some decent shape off the windswell mix.
Personally I am going to leave my board in the garage tomorrow…there was a decent amount of rain falling inland that may jack up water quality and I don’t need another case of river-poo-itis.
Finally here is a close-up quikscat map of the winds hitting the outer waters yesterday and today.
